BTL Tax rules post 2020 - am i on the right track?

BTL Tax rules post 2020 - am i on the right track?

Author
Discussion

jdw1234

6,021 posts

216 months

Friday 13th November 2015
quotequote all
Behemoth said:
I think there will be a rush to the door for a certain sector. Anyone highly leveraged (probably ~>75%) with properties generating over ~£50k income is in increasingly deep trouble with this leading up to 2020. I think I'm right in saying large portfolio landlords tend to focus on lower income tenants.

They will sell up when they realise and I don't think nearly enough have realised. Enough of that housing stock hitting the market all at once may well be big enough to trigger a much wider correction.
All the landlords selling is going to reduce the supply of rental properties so rents will go through the roof!!

That's because when a landlord sells the property disappears in a puff of smoke or it is sold to a newly created human being.

Oh, hang on....







Eric Mc

122,048 posts

266 months

Friday 13th November 2015
quotequote all
Sometimes, properties just CAN'T be sold. Just look what happened in Ireland following the collapse of the property boom there.

You could end up with lots of unoccupied repossessed properties.

jdw1234

6,021 posts

216 months

Friday 13th November 2015
quotequote all
Eric Mc said:
Sometimes, properties just CAN'T be sold. Just look what happened in Ireland following the collapse of the property boom there.

You could end up with lots of unoccupied repossessed properties.
Which are then sold at auction.


sumo69

2,164 posts

221 months

Friday 13th November 2015
quotequote all
jdw1234 said:
Which are then sold at auction.
to landlords presumably!!

98elise

26,644 posts

162 months

Friday 13th November 2015
quotequote all
jdw1234 said:
Behemoth said:
I think there will be a rush to the door for a certain sector. Anyone highly leveraged (probably ~>75%) with properties generating over ~£50k income is in increasingly deep trouble with this leading up to 2020. I think I'm right in saying large portfolio landlords tend to focus on lower income tenants.

They will sell up when they realise and I don't think nearly enough have realised. Enough of that housing stock hitting the market all at once may well be big enough to trigger a much wider correction.
All the landlords selling is going to reduce the supply of rental properties so rents will go through the roof!!

That's because when a landlord sells the property disappears in a puff of smoke or it is sold to a newly created human being.

Oh, hang on....
Human beings are being newly created all the time, or in this context more and more demand is appearing with an ever increasing shortfall in supply.

While we sill can't supply enough properties either for rent or sale, then both markets will have upward pressure. The only thing capping prices then is the supply of money.

Eric Mc

122,048 posts

266 months

Friday 13th November 2015
quotequote all
jdw1234 said:
Eric Mc said:
Sometimes, properties just CAN'T be sold. Just look what happened in Ireland following the collapse of the property boom there.

You could end up with lots of unoccupied repossessed properties.
Which are then sold at auction.
To whom?

Behemoth

2,105 posts

132 months

Friday 13th November 2015
quotequote all
98elise said:
While we sill can't supply enough properties either for rent or sale, then both markets will have upward pressure. The only thing capping prices then is the supply of money.
This is true longer term, but this tax change is still profound enough to deliver a correction. Additionally, new mortgages for BTL will be a fair bit harder to come by once new mortgage regs fall in place (Mar 2016). So that's your money supply bit.

Any properties auctioned off will be snapped up by those with cash and time available to wait for the longer term upswing to return.

jdw1234

6,021 posts

216 months

Friday 13th November 2015
quotequote all
Eric Mc said:
jdw1234 said:
Eric Mc said:
Sometimes, properties just CAN'T be sold. Just look what happened in Ireland following the collapse of the property boom there.

You could end up with lots of unoccupied repossessed properties.
Which are then sold at auction.
To whom?
Landlords or owner occupiers

jdw1234

6,021 posts

216 months

Friday 13th November 2015
quotequote all
98elise said:
jdw1234 said:
Behemoth said:
I think there will be a rush to the door for a certain sector. Anyone highly leveraged (probably ~>75%) with properties generating over ~£50k income is in increasingly deep trouble with this leading up to 2020. I think I'm right in saying large portfolio landlords tend to focus on lower income tenants.

They will sell up when they realise and I don't think nearly enough have realised. Enough of that housing stock hitting the market all at once may well be big enough to trigger a much wider correction.
All the landlords selling is going to reduce the supply of rental properties so rents will go through the roof!!

That's because when a landlord sells the property disappears in a puff of smoke or it is sold to a newly created human being.

Oh, hang on....
Human beings are being newly created all the time, or in this context more and more demand is appearing with an ever increasing shortfall in supply.

While we sill can't supply enough properties either for rent or sale, then both markets will have upward pressure. The only thing capping prices then is the supply of money.
"Supply of money" / availability of finance being the only thing that matters.

98elise

26,644 posts

162 months

Sunday 15th November 2015
quotequote all
jdw1234 said:
98elise said:
jdw1234 said:
Behemoth said:
I think there will be a rush to the door for a certain sector. Anyone highly leveraged (probably ~>75%) with properties generating over ~£50k income is in increasingly deep trouble with this leading up to 2020. I think I'm right in saying large portfolio landlords tend to focus on lower income tenants.

They will sell up when they realise and I don't think nearly enough have realised. Enough of that housing stock hitting the market all at once may well be big enough to trigger a much wider correction.
All the landlords selling is going to reduce the supply of rental properties so rents will go through the roof!!

That's because when a landlord sells the property disappears in a puff of smoke or it is sold to a newly created human being.

Oh, hang on....
Human beings are being newly created all the time, or in this context more and more demand is appearing with an ever increasing shortfall in supply.

While we sill can't supply enough properties either for rent or sale, then both markets will have upward pressure. The only thing capping prices then is the supply of money.
"Supply of money" / availability of finance being the only thing that matters.
You also need people who want to buy, otherwise we wouldn't have cheap houses in undesireable areas.

Demand is a mixture of the want to buy, and the ability to pay. Without both you lack demand.

Eric Mc

122,048 posts

266 months

Sunday 15th November 2015
quotequote all
jdw1234 said:
Eric Mc said:
jdw1234 said:
Eric Mc said:
Sometimes, properties just CAN'T be sold. Just look what happened in Ireland following the collapse of the property boom there.

You could end up with lots of unoccupied repossessed properties.
Which are then sold at auction.
To whom?
Landlords or owner occupiers
They may not be in endless supply.

jdw1234

6,021 posts

216 months

Sunday 15th November 2015
quotequote all
Then prices go down.