Buying Oil, how best to do it ?
Discussion
Actually trimmed some off but I suspect I'm trading a much shorter timeframe.
They didn't really agree to much though did they, a production freeze is all well and good but the market wants that cut.
One more visit to the lows maybe seeing as it got rejected at the upper trend line today.
They didn't really agree to much though did they, a production freeze is all well and good but the market wants that cut.
One more visit to the lows maybe seeing as it got rejected at the upper trend line today.
Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 16th February 14:14
Indeed.
Whilst it doesn't change the oversupply dynamics I'm viewing it as a precursor to a swing in sentiment.
I've broken a number of my own rules, hence small position. As a technical play I've been waiting for an upside break of the falling wedge but that is yet to come...
I'm trading on a 6-12 month view.
Whilst it doesn't change the oversupply dynamics I'm viewing it as a precursor to a swing in sentiment.
I've broken a number of my own rules, hence small position. As a technical play I've been waiting for an upside break of the falling wedge but that is yet to come...
I'm trading on a 6-12 month view.
DoubleSix said:
Indeed.
Whilst it doesn't change the oversupply dynamics I'm viewing it as a precursor to a swing in sentiment.
I've broken a number of my own rules, hence small position. As a technical play I've been waiting for an upside break of the falling wedge but that is yet to come...
I'm trading on a 6-12 month view.
We're looking at the same pattern, I'm trading wti futures though so not sure on brent prices, if that's what your trading. 25ish is what I see as the potential bottom, having said there's still a strong chance last week's price was a near term bottom, just the failure of breaking that wedge today got me out. Once that pattern breaks out I think Oil sees the 40's relatively quickly. Whilst it doesn't change the oversupply dynamics I'm viewing it as a precursor to a swing in sentiment.
I've broken a number of my own rules, hence small position. As a technical play I've been waiting for an upside break of the falling wedge but that is yet to come...
I'm trading on a 6-12 month view.
Going through the etf's for anyone who wants to play oil for the long term outside of futures or spread betting USL seems to be the best etf suited to buy and hold. It reflects the daily price change in wti crude. More info http://www.unitedstatescommodityfunds.com/fund-det...
Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 16th February 15:33
FarmyardPants said:
I would buy Brent now (around the 30 mark) as I see good potential for a low 40s mini rally
My prediction did quite well, now back to 32. I would buy more here. Disappointment at the weak OPEC statement to only not increase rather than cut but it still has legs imo.I also think stocks will start to drive oil prices now rather than vice versa.
FarmyardPants said:
I also think stocks will start to drive oil prices now rather than vice versa.
I think oil in the last 2 weeks decoupled from the market a bit, that strong correlation where Oil was driving the market's direction just doesn't seem to be as strong as it was a few weeks back, at least to me anyway. twinturboz said:
FarmyardPants said:
I also think stocks will start to drive oil prices now rather than vice versa.
I think oil in the last 2 weeks decoupled from the market a bit, that strong correlation where Oil was driving the market's direction just doesn't seem to be as strong as it was a few weeks back, at least to me anyway. Personally I think people are getting bored/accustomed to oil prices as well. Yesterday's news. This, combined with the above, means they don't have the same drastic effect they did a year ago. On the other hand, oil rises wake people up to buying opportunities in oil companies so to some extent there is an upside-only mentality (maybe)
FarmyardPants said:
I agree. As oil companies are sold off (and compensate by cutting costs) that will lead to lower correlation. Then again if oil makes new lows then those bets are off of course.
Personally I think people are getting bored/accustomed to oil prices as well. Yesterday's news. This, combined with the above, means they don't have the same drastic effect they did a year ago. On the other hand, oil rises wake people up to buying opportunities in oil companies so to some extent there is an upside-only mentality (maybe)
Ahh your talking about the correlation of oil companies to the price of oil, not a clue about that. I was on about the general market vs oil. Personally I think people are getting bored/accustomed to oil prices as well. Yesterday's news. This, combined with the above, means they don't have the same drastic effect they did a year ago. On the other hand, oil rises wake people up to buying opportunities in oil companies so to some extent there is an upside-only mentality (maybe)
twinturboz said:
DoubleSix said:
Indeed.
As a technical play I've been waiting for an upside break of the falling wedge but that is yet to come...
Yet another failure on trying to break that wedge, beginning to think the breakout will be to the downside of the wedge. As a technical play I've been waiting for an upside break of the falling wedge but that is yet to come...
Yup not complaining, in-fact it's been good to trade in and out of, currently flat from the buys on Friday and stalking a re-entry, but it's the bigger trade that has yet to set up.
Just from experience don't know if it's the same for you but if the wedge doesn't break out 2/3 of the way then I find it usually fails, so a breakout imminently would be nice rather than it get towards the end of the wedge.
Looks like it broke the wedge be interesting to see the reaction to the inventories later on.
Just from experience don't know if it's the same for you but if the wedge doesn't break out 2/3 of the way then I find it usually fails, so a breakout imminently would be nice rather than it get towards the end of the wedge.
Looks like it broke the wedge be interesting to see the reaction to the inventories later on.
Edited by twinturboz on Thursday 18th February 14:22
DonkeyApple said:
DoubleSix said:
Would have expected an update here today...
Anyway, small long opened.
Yup. Saudis have cracked. US won months ago but market needed Saudis to publicly admit they had been defeated. Anyway, small long opened.
DonkeyApple said:
They appear to be back tracking. If correct then we haven't seen the low yet.
Did anyone genuinely believe a deal would be done? There's no way they are going to cut anytime soon. Oil for sure wasn't pricing it in maybe a freeze is priced in to a certain extent. Looking at the setup on this, if Oil makes new lows and only if those lows turn out to be marginally lower than the last I'd be aggressively buying.
Edited by twinturboz on Friday 19th February 09:26
I'm not sure about the Russell Grant diagnostics;) but the moment the Saudis opened their mouths and began to confirm what they and the rest of the world have known since before Christmas (ie that they've lost the war) you saw the markets calming and price stability coming and the media starting to talk more about GB leaving than Greece not surprising the world by needing another bailout.
My view is that subject to a new shock then the floor is pretty much in and people are focussing on which assets are worth buying from which receivers and shareholders.
My view is that subject to a new shock then the floor is pretty much in and people are focussing on which assets are worth buying from which receivers and shareholders.
MitchT said:
I'm going to look into this - see how oil company prices move relative to crude prices and see if there's enough upside.
They don't, really. Of course the OP has an effect, but a lot of the price movement is in the sentiment about the company direction, reaction to market forces, future plans/acquisitions etc.Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff