House prices at an all time high.... Bad time to buy?

[doogle83]

rufusgti said:

I do know that I wasted a few years of my life reading HPC forum. Convinced the world was about to collapse in on itself. I was convinced house prices simply could not go up anymore, yet they still did, higher and higher and higher.

I did this for about a year. Fortunately my Mrs put her foot down and 5 years ago we bought our first place. Based on a couple of sales this month down our road we've "made" about 50% on what we paid which is just insane. Sadly it means anything larger is now totally out of reach but more so I really do feel for people trying to buy their first house right now.

[Mr Whippy]

rufusgti said:

One poster had been waiting to buy, viewing big discounted property in 2008 but kind of missed the boat and watched prices rise and rise above all time high in astonishment. I went back on last night and he's still doing the same. He's about my age (mid 30's) and I just felt a bit sorry for him. He believed everything that forum preaches. But there's always various views that are worth opening up to. But hey, he could yet be right!!

A broken clock is right twice a day.

But really there is something wrong with the economy. It's not healthy for people to have this viewpoint to begin with because it shows a general sentiment that things are getting harder and harder and people are waiting.

I don't believe they're misguided, things are getting harder and harder.

I think the reality is that waiting means you find yourself in a worse position, so you wish you hopped on earlier. But at the same time the longer it goes on the much more likely it is to snap back and break, so hopping on later seems evey more risky.


The gears were set in motion decades ago. The outcome is a given. The debt and bubbles cannot be unwound elegantly. Things will either crash or hyper inflate. Which one our governments let happen is the factor we don't know.

I go for the latter.

But it probably makes no real difference to housing. It will become cheaper to afford after a correction of monetary value, or property prices, but only for a time. If you're not ready to hop on then, or not willing to wait maybe another full business cycle for that to happen, then just buy now and get on with it.


But sentiment is still the key here. Banks and government have buggered everything up. By allowing asset bubbles to form, and not letting things correct, they've created an environment of fear because we're all seeing the bubbles and anticipating corrections, job losses etc. Cheaper credit still doesn't make you want to spend in those conditions!

Dave

[nct001]

Mr Whippy said:

rufusgti said:

One poster had been waiting to buy, viewing big discounted property in 2008 but kind of missed the boat and watched prices rise and rise above all time high in astonishment. I went back on last night and he's still doing the same. He's about my age (mid 30's) and I just felt a bit sorry for him. He believed everything that forum preaches. But there's always various views that are worth opening up to. But hey, he could yet be right!!

A broken clock is right twice a day.

But really there is something wrong with the economy. It's not healthy for people to have this viewpoint to begin with because it shows a general sentiment that things are getting harder and harder and people are waiting.

I don't believe they're misguided, things are getting harder and harder.

I think the reality is that waiting means you find yourself in a worse position, so you wish you hopped on earlier. But at the same time the longer it goes on the much more likely it is to snap back and break, so hopping on later seems evey more risky.


The gears were set in motion decades ago. The outcome is a given. The debt and bubbles cannot be unwound elegantly. Things will either crash or hyper inflate. Which one our governments let happen is the factor we don't know.

I go for the latter.

But it probably makes no real difference to housing. It will become cheaper to afford after a correction of monetary value, or property prices, but only for a time. If you're not ready to hop on then, or not willing to wait maybe another full business cycle for that to happen, then just buy now and get on with it.


But sentiment is still the key here. Banks and government have buggered everything up. By allowing asset bubbles to form, and not letting things correct, they've created an environment of fear because we're all seeing the bubbles and anticipating corrections, job losses etc. Cheaper credit still doesn't make you want to spend in those conditions!

Dave

We don't need value judgements, we need facts.

House prices, albeit high in SE, have risen by on average 4.5 per cent compounded since the recession of 2008. And adjusted for inflation, the real house price growth is controlled and in line with historic house price data.

Another barometer of house price affordability is the rental sector. Rental yields mirror the housing market price increase and rental yields are around 1 per cent higher in SE than per 2008. What this shows that renters are prepared to accept the current house price structure.

A more mobile labour force could take advantage of the service sector and relocate more people to far more affordable parts of UK eg NE and East Midlands from London and Home Counties.

Predictions are for a six per cent rise in 2016, UK Surveyors Association.

The UK Economy is doing more than ok, professional economists simply do not predict what you have offered up.

Some wishy washy graph from a Geographer which is inaccurate and something an eleven plus student could dream up. And an extrapolated graph to try to prove a point which in reality shows a steady but increasing house price growth. Your predictions for hyper inflation are they taken from that great Economist of our time who produces the Keiser Report - a fantasist who is not a professional Economist but a Journalist with a background in The Arts.

When rates rise or predicted by the market to rise there will be downward correction in prices but in the long term, economists predict long term low interest rates and there is no reason to expect UK price growth to not act as they have always done, rise.

[Ozzie Osmond]

nct001 said:

...economists predict...

Run Forrest, run!


I don't recall any economists back in 1996 predicting that the long term pattern of c.5% base rates was about to convert itself into a long term pattern of 0% rates.

Neither do I recall these eminent economists predicting a 2015 collapse of the oil price.

[Mr Whippy]

nct001 said:

Mr Whippy said:

rufusgti said:

One poster had been waiting to buy, viewing big discounted property in 2008 but kind of missed the boat and watched prices rise and rise above all time high in astonishment. I went back on last night and he's still doing the same. He's about my age (mid 30's) and I just felt a bit sorry for him. He believed everything that forum preaches. But there's always various views that are worth opening up to. But hey, he could yet be right!!

A broken clock is right twice a day.

But really there is something wrong with the economy. It's not healthy for people to have this viewpoint to begin with because it shows a general sentiment that things are getting harder and harder and people are waiting.

I don't believe they're misguided, things are getting harder and harder.

I think the reality is that waiting means you find yourself in a worse position, so you wish you hopped on earlier. But at the same time the longer it goes on the much more likely it is to snap back and break, so hopping on later seems evey more risky.


The gears were set in motion decades ago. The outcome is a given. The debt and bubbles cannot be unwound elegantly. Things will either crash or hyper inflate. Which one our governments let happen is the factor we don't know.

I go for the latter.

But it probably makes no real difference to housing. It will become cheaper to afford after a correction of monetary value, or property prices, but only for a time. If you're not ready to hop on then, or not willing to wait maybe another full business cycle for that to happen, then just buy now and get on with it.


But sentiment is still the key here. Banks and government have buggered everything up. By allowing asset bubbles to form, and not letting things correct, they've created an environment of fear because we're all seeing the bubbles and anticipating corrections, job losses etc. Cheaper credit still doesn't make you want to spend in those conditions!

Dave

We don't need value judgements, we need facts.

House prices, albeit high in SE, have risen by on average 4.5 per cent compounded since the recession of 2008. And adjusted for inflation, the real house price growth is controlled and in line with historic house price data.

Another barometer of house price affordability is the rental sector. Rental yields mirror the housing market price increase and rental yields are around 1 per cent higher in SE than per 2008. What this shows that renters are prepared to accept the current house price structure.

A more mobile labour force could take advantage of the service sector and relocate more people to far more affordable parts of UK eg NE and East Midlands from London and Home Counties.

Predictions are for a six per cent rise in 2016, UK Surveyors Association.

The UK Economy is doing more than ok, professional economists simply do not predict what you have offered up.

Some wishy washy graph from a Geographer which is inaccurate and something an eleven plus student could dream up. And an extrapolated graph to try to prove a point which in reality shows a steady but increasing house price growth. Your predictions for hyper inflation are they taken from that great Economist of our time who produces the Keiser Report - a fantasist who is not a professional Economist but a Journalist with a background in The Arts.

When rates rise or predicted by the market to rise there will be downward correction in prices but in the long term, economists predict long term low interest rates and there is no reason to expect UK price growth to not act as they have always done, rise.

Oh economists predict.

So how come they all lose all our money into every bear market? How come we had a huge credit crisis in 2007/2008?

They're as clueless as the next man. Great at analysis, but crystal balling the future? They're terrible as evidenced by perpetual economic failures.

[nct001]

Mr Whippy said:

nct001 said:

Mr Whippy said:

rufusgti said:

One poster had been waiting to buy, viewing big discounted property in 2008 but kind of missed the boat and watched prices rise and rise above all time high in astonishment. I went back on last night and he's still doing the same. He's about my age (mid 30's) and I just felt a bit sorry for him. He believed everything that forum preaches. But there's always various views that are worth opening up to. But hey, he could yet be right!!

A broken clock is right twice a day.

But really there is something wrong with the economy. It's not healthy for people to have this viewpoint to begin with because it shows a general sentiment that things are getting harder and harder and people are waiting.

I don't believe they're misguided, things are getting harder and harder.

I think the reality is that waiting means you find yourself in a worse position, so you wish you hopped on earlier. But at the same time the longer it goes on the much more likely it is to snap back and break, so hopping on later seems evey more risky.


The gears were set in motion decades ago. The outcome is a given. The debt and bubbles cannot be unwound elegantly. Things will either crash or hyper inflate. Which one our governments let happen is the factor we don't know.

I go for the latter.

But it probably makes no real difference to housing. It will become cheaper to afford after a correction of monetary value, or property prices, but only for a time. If you're not ready to hop on then, or not willing to wait maybe another full business cycle for that to happen, then just buy now and get on with it.


But sentiment is still the key here. Banks and government have buggered everything up. By allowing asset bubbles to form, and not letting things correct, they've created an environment of fear because we're all seeing the bubbles and anticipating corrections, job losses etc. Cheaper credit still doesn't make you want to spend in those conditions!

Dave

We don't need value judgements, we need facts.

House prices, albeit high in SE, have risen by on average 4.5 per cent compounded since the recession of 2008. And adjusted for inflation, the real house price growth is controlled and in line with historic house price data.

Another barometer of house price affordability is the rental sector. Rental yields mirror the housing market price increase and rental yields are around 1 per cent higher in SE than per 2008. What this shows that renters are prepared to accept the current house price structure.

A more mobile labour force could take advantage of the service sector and relocate more people to far more affordable parts of UK eg NE and East Midlands from London and Home Counties.

Predictions are for a six per cent rise in 2016, UK Surveyors Association.

The UK Economy is doing more than ok, professional economists simply do not predict what you have offered up.

Some wishy washy graph from a Geographer which is inaccurate and something an eleven plus student could dream up. And an extrapolated graph to try to prove a point which in reality shows a steady but increasing house price growth. Your predictions for hyper inflation are they taken from that great Economist of our time who produces the Keiser Report - a fantasist who is not a professional Economist but a Journalist with a background in The Arts.

When rates rise or predicted by the market to rise there will be downward correction in prices but in the long term, economists predict long term low interest rates and there is no reason to expect UK price growth to not act as they have always done, rise.

Oh economists predict.

So how come they all lose all our money into every bear market? How come we had a huge credit crisis in 2007/2008?

They're as clueless as the next man. Great at analysis, but crystal balling the future? They're terrible as evidenced by perpetual economic failures.

But economists can only advise - they do not rule the world, leave that to politicians and looming body behind them (lol).

Economics underpins our society - chap on here (can quote) making sweeping statement but doesn't even understand derived demand. The is simple stuff.

Economists can't predict the future - since 2008 the world economy is in totally unchartered territory and perhaps traditional economic thinking needs to be passed to one side, but that need not mean lessons cannot be learnt from previous thinking and knowledge.

Not all economists get it wrong, 2006 2007 I gambled on rates going down through tracker mortgages and was prepared to go bankrupt if they went up.

For me, what is "dangerous" is sweeping unsubstantiated value judgements based not upon economics and with no (implied) economics back ground; especially using extrapolated graphs that are designed to mislead.

It's all good fun - make your predictions for 2016 and 2017... We can't all be wrong.

[Derek Chevalier]

nct001 said:

We don't need value judgements, we need facts.

And adjusted for inflation, the real house price growth is controlled and in line with historic house price data.

Another barometer of house price affordability is the rental sector. Rental yields mirror the housing market price increase

These aren't facts

[nct001]

Derek Chevalier said:

nct001 said:

We don't need value judgements, we need facts.

And adjusted for inflation, the real house price growth is controlled and in line with historic house price data.

Another barometer of house price affordability is the rental sector. Rental yields mirror the housing market price increase

These aren't facts

Example we are talking about is SE...

Show me the facts that rents in SE have not mirrored house price growth, if not bettered it- Central London excluded.

Show me and the forum the UK average house price growth since the 70s with a distribution line and pass comment.

I've got this information, but please tell me I'm wrong.

[Derek Chevalier]

nct001 said:

Derek Chevalier said:

nct001 said:

We don't need value judgements, we need facts.

And adjusted for inflation, the real house price growth is controlled and in line with historic house price data.

Another barometer of house price affordability is the rental sector. Rental yields mirror the housing market price increase

These aren't facts

Example we are talking about is SE...

Show me the facts that rents in SE have not mirrored house price growth, if not bettered it- Central London excluded.

Show me and the forum the UK average house price growth since the 70s with a distribution line and pass comment.

I've got this information, but please tell me I'm wrong.

House prices - You need to go back to before the 70s to get perspective on how big this bubble has been - try this

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Houses-Historical-Analysis...

Rents - Compare yields now (now being during the 15 year bubble) to before

[Mr Whippy]

nct001 said:

But economists can only advise - they do not rule the world, leave that to politicians and looming body behind them (lol).

Economics underpins our society - chap on here (can quote) making sweeping statement but doesn't even understand derived demand. The is simple stuff.

Economists can't predict the future - since 2008 the world economy is in totally unchartered territory and perhaps traditional economic thinking needs to be passed to one side, but that need not mean lessons cannot be learnt from previous thinking and knowledge.

Not all economists get it wrong, 2006 2007 I gambled on rates going down through tracker mortgages and was prepared to go bankrupt if they went up.

For me, what is "dangerous" is sweeping unsubstantiated value judgements based not upon economics and with no (implied) economics back ground; especially using extrapolated graphs that are designed to mislead.

It's all good fun - make your predictions for 2016 and 2017... We can't all be wrong.

I suppose this is why Black Swans as a concept were imagined.

The actual direction of economics is defined by the things we can't predict than by the control we believe we exert.

But that is even more an argument for Austrian economic theory than Keynesian economic theory moving forward. Keynes was wrong. You can't control chaos. Better to live with it than against it?

[nct001]

Mr Whippy said:

nct001 said:

But economists can only advise - they do not rule the world, leave that to politicians and looming body behind them (lol).

Economics underpins our society - chap on here (can quote) making sweeping statement but doesn't even understand derived demand. The is simple stuff.

Economists can't predict the future - since 2008 the world economy is in totally unchartered territory and perhaps traditional economic thinking needs to be passed to one side, but that need not mean lessons cannot be learnt from previous thinking and knowledge.

Not all economists get it wrong, 2006 2007 I gambled on rates going down through tracker mortgages and was prepared to go bankrupt if they went up.

For me, what is "dangerous" is sweeping unsubstantiated value judgements based not upon economics and with no (implied) economics back ground; especially using extrapolated graphs that are designed to mislead.

It's all good fun - make your predictions for 2016 and 2017... We can't all be wrong.

I suppose this is why Black Swans as a concept were imagined.

The actual direction of economics is defined by the things we can't predict than by the control we believe we exert.

But that is even more an argument for Austrian economic theory than Keynesian economic theory moving forward. Keynes was wrong. You can't control chaos. Better to live with it than against it?

And there was me thinking definition of economics was defined as use, development and allocation of scarce resources within a finite world.

Unless you somehow have a PhD you are unlikely to educate me in this field. But I appreciate your efforts.

[Mr Whippy]

nct001 said:

Mr Whippy said:

nct001 said:

But economists can only advise - they do not rule the world, leave that to politicians and looming body behind them (lol).

Economics underpins our society - chap on here (can quote) making sweeping statement but doesn't even understand derived demand. The is simple stuff.

Economists can't predict the future - since 2008 the world economy is in totally unchartered territory and perhaps traditional economic thinking needs to be passed to one side, but that need not mean lessons cannot be learnt from previous thinking and knowledge.

Not all economists get it wrong, 2006 2007 I gambled on rates going down through tracker mortgages and was prepared to go bankrupt if they went up.

For me, what is "dangerous" is sweeping unsubstantiated value judgements based not upon economics and with no (implied) economics back ground; especially using extrapolated graphs that are designed to mislead.

It's all good fun - make your predictions for 2016 and 2017... We can't all be wrong.

I suppose this is why Black Swans as a concept were imagined.

The actual direction of economics is defined by the things we can't predict than by the control we believe we exert.

But that is even more an argument for Austrian economic theory than Keynesian economic theory moving forward. Keynes was wrong. You can't control chaos. Better to live with it than against it?

And there was me thinking definition of economics was defined as use, development and allocation of scarce resources within a finite world.

Unless you somehow have a PhD you are unlikely to educate me in this field. But I appreciate your efforts.

The hubris of economists is exhibited here for all to see

You can think what the definition of economics is all you like, I don't think I even mentioned the definition.

I stated quite clearly that Keynes was wrong in thinking you can't control chaos.


So what is it? I'm wrong, Keynes is right, we can control economies?

So is the current economic outlook planned? ZIRP and NIRP were planned? QE was planned?

Or are we where we are because economists couldn't keep the Keynesian economy chugging along with moderate and controllable inflation levels despite huge government and central bank interventions?

Dave

[NancyM]

Unfortunately for tenants London's property market doesn't seem a bubble. To meet growing demand, 40,000–50,000 new homes need to be built each year, even though only 24,000 new lodgings are planned each year between now and 2020. At least brokers suggest that prices won't fall soon because of continuing growth of the population, in particular https://tranio.com/articles/

[Mr Whippy]

Stuff doesn't move sideways.

So it'll keep going up until it doesn't. And the further it goes up the more likely it'll come back down harder.


Unless you subscribe to Keynes and think you can paste over the economic slumps with debt... like we've been doing for almost a decade

More slump debt in-filling to come!

[mike74]

If you're a proper cash buyer, not requiring a mortgage and with no property to sell... you would be insane to even consider buying right now.

[anonymous-user]

I have a 50% cash deposit and nothing to sell and I really want to buy. I was hoping for the brexit it in the hope it would shake up the market and cause prices to drop so I am going to give it a few months and see how it pans out.

[dom9]

mike74 said:

If you're a proper cash buyer, not requiring a mortgage and with no property to sell... you would be insane to even consider buying right now.

Joey Deacon said:

I have a 50% cash deposit and nothing to sell and I really want to buy. I was hoping for the brexit it in the hope it would shake up the market and cause prices to drop so I am going to give it a few months and see how it pans out.

We're a large deposit (savings held in USD), no house to sell buyers and we're still looking (Surrey).

I'd be interested in more thoughts on where the housing market may be going.

I feel like USD may strengthen over the next few months and I don't think houses are going to appreciate so I am fairly sure I am in a 'hold' position for now.

[XMT]

I am a virgin when it comes to understanding the housing market but one thing that really baffles me is how excited people get when their property value goes up.... I still dont understand why....

In my mind if I have a house which I bought for 200k and it is now valued at say 400k and I want to move house then the next house has likely to have went up by the same percentage give or take unless you make a huge geographical change....

[Hoofy]

XMT said:

I am a virgin when it comes to understanding the housing market but one thing that really baffles me is how excited people get when their property value goes up.... I still dont understand why....

In my mind if I have a house which I bought for 200k and it is now valued at say 400k and I want to move house then the next house has likely to have went up by the same percentage give or take unless you make a huge geographical change....

No, it's pretty much right as I see it. It's only great if you cash in and move into a smaller home or a cheaper area.

[okgo]

Hoofy said:

No, it's pretty much right as I see it. It's only great if you cash in and move into a smaller home or a cheaper area.

Which is easily done.

Also you can take cash out of the house if you please to do other things with - some things potentially more intelligent than others, i.e. a BTL or something, maybe not a bad idea, a new car or holiday (plenty do it) - probably less so.