Time to invest in a FTSE 100 tracker?

Time to invest in a FTSE 100 tracker?

Author
Discussion

Matt1707

Original Poster:

33 posts

111 months

Wednesday 10th February 2016
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Hi All,

As you will have seen on the new today the FTSE is it a 3 year low, would it be worth investing in a FTSE 100 tracker fund with a mid-long term view? Please share you opinions!

thanks

Hainey

4,381 posts

199 months

Wednesday 10th February 2016
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I am. Putting my money where my mouth is on the FTSE100.

Fundamentals in my eyes haven't changed and i'm looking at the 15 year view. I think anyone who has the nerve to go in and wait could do very well indeed.

Or I could be wrong and facing a cat food retirement. We'll see smile

greygoose

8,224 posts

194 months

Wednesday 10th February 2016
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You could drip feed money in on a monthly basis as there could be worse to come.

Simpo Two

85,149 posts

264 months

Wednesday 10th February 2016
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Then again if Germany's biggest bank is about to go bang...

DonkeyApple

54,923 posts

168 months

Wednesday 10th February 2016
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Grabbing the price now wouldn't seem a brilliant idea. The market is in a down trend so the chances of actually calling the bottom just aren't there.

However, starting to scale in on a monthly basis or if already being done, looking to increase the amount wouldn't be a daft idea at all.

Worth bearing in mind that if the current ball sweating transpires to be a proper rout then the 21st century floor is around the 4000 mark biggrin

Yell_M3

389 posts

199 months

Wednesday 10th February 2016
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Not sure we've seen the bottom yet! But long term you may be fine.

dingg

3,974 posts

218 months

Wednesday 10th February 2016
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DonkeyApple said:
Grabbing the price now wouldn't seem a brilliant idea. The market is in a down trend so the chances of actually calling the bottom just aren't there.

However, starting to scale in on a monthly basis or if already being done, looking to increase the amount wouldn't be a daft idea at all.

Worth bearing in mind that if the current ball sweating transpires to be a proper rout then the 21st century floor is around the 4000 mark biggrin
I 'hope' the rout doesn't come off DA - I'm gambling this is just a market correction and not a new bear market, who knows for sure yet though? (low oil surely good for equities world wide and China issue not as bad as media have us believe plus India taking up the slack)

I'm lumping in the max to my pension fund and hoping to retire in 3 years so lets hope I'm right

yikes

twinturboz

1,278 posts

177 months

Wednesday 10th February 2016
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I'm no perma bear nor am I trying to scare anyone, in fact I'm cautiously bullish here in the very short term but someone explain to me how this all ends in the longterm 10yrs or more down the line.

2008 was where the banks were over leveraged and on the brink of bankruptcy, the argument was if they let them go bankrupt the whole system would collapse so they proceeded to bail them out, the whole rescue package was aimed at saving the banks.

Zero interest rates and massive amounts of qe as I see it was a gamble to try rescue the banks in the hope that a few years later things would be different, there would be growth and then they could claw back the deficit.

Only problem is 7 years later and again the banks are in trouble. Take Db how do they even manage to have exposure to $75 trillion of derivatives isn't that much much worse than Lehman's? Same deal they won't let them go bankrupt because I imagine if they did 2008 would look tiny in comparison.

I guess my argument here is are the current prices really accurate or is it all because of the QE and zero interest rates, what's the end game permanent qe from now on? One small hike and the US markets haven't exactly taken it well.

So if your bullish here I'm assuming the argument is all this is overblown right now there is no risk of these major institutions blowing up.

But in the long term picture how is all the world debt going to be reduced?

US at $16 trillion
China at $28 trillion
Uk $2 trillion

Since 2008 global debt has increased by $57 trillion so if we have a crisis now 2008 is just going to be a blip in comparison.





DonkeyApple

54,923 posts

168 months

Wednesday 10th February 2016
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dingg said:
DonkeyApple said:
Grabbing the price now wouldn't seem a brilliant idea. The market is in a down trend so the chances of actually calling the bottom just aren't there.

However, starting to scale in on a monthly basis or if already being done, looking to increase the amount wouldn't be a daft idea at all.

Worth bearing in mind that if the current ball sweating transpires to be a proper rout then the 21st century floor is around the 4000 mark biggrin
I 'hope' the rout doesn't come off DA - I'm gambling this is just a market correction and not a new bear market, who knows for sure yet though? (low oil surely good for equities world wide and China issue not as bad as media have us believe plus India taking up the slack)

I'm lumping in the max to my pension fund and hoping to retire in 3 years so lets hope I'm right

yikes
I'm inclined to the same view. It's certainly my intention to scale up the 'money in' from March.

I think you are right that the market is discounting the upside of fair value oil, that China is still growing and that India is banking it.

Frankly, the fears of German banks collapsing? So what. What we all know now is that any government will just bail them out and print money. Hence the abnormal spike in gold at present.

Randomly I've dodged a bullet on the last two crashes. I was all cash early in 2001 as I saw the tech boom coming to an end and that was what I'd been punting. So when 9/11 happened it was only the pension that got hit. And then in 2006 I had a weird notion that the world had gone crazy, or at least London had, and I sold my cars, went to cash all round. Last year I sold a house, stopped putting money into the markets and am selling some cars.

Basically I'm always bearish but when I get spooked I sell a few things and stop adding to investments. Every sell off is eventually an opportunity to buy but you can only buy after a massive sell off if you have cash.

shopper150

1,576 posts

193 months

Wednesday 10th February 2016
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I'm probably not adding much here. But I hate the FTSE.
Crap index, crap returns.

jeff m2

2,060 posts

150 months

Wednesday 10th February 2016
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dingg said:
I 'hope' the rout doesn't come off DA - I'm gambling this is just a market correction and not a new bear market, who knows for sure yet though? (low oil surely good for equities world wide and China issue not as bad as media have us believe plus India taking up the slack)

I'm lumping in the max to my pension fund and hoping to retire in 3 years so lets hope I'm right

yikes
Actually low oil prices are part of the problem.
The only beneficiaries of low pump prices are lower consumers that live pay cheque to pay cheque. (and possibly the paint industrysmile) They are not going to sway the market.

Adding to your pension fund with three years to go is perhaps your only choice.
Not sure the 100 is the best place.

Ozzie Osmond

21,189 posts

245 months

Wednesday 10th February 2016
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shopper150 said:
I'm probably not adding much here. But I hate the FTSE.
Crap index, crap returns.
Agreed - I would never track the FTSE 100 but I think the FTSE All-share is fair game. FTSE 100 is too lop-sided towards a small number of massive companies at the top.

I'm buying now. If you look at previous historical lows the problem becomes that if you wait for an upturn you never know whether it's the real thing or a false dawn. And if you wait to make sure it's the real thing it will have risen so far before you finally get on board that you will miss out. One of the biggest mistakes you can make is to be out of the market when the occasional rapid gains kick in.

There's an investment saying that it's better to focus on "time in the market" than "timing the market".

DonkeyApple

54,923 posts

168 months

Wednesday 10th February 2016
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The Fatass contains those same stocks and has the same issue re weightings though. It's a bit like not minding picking up a turd because there's a spec of gold dust buried in there somewhere. biggrin


Esseesse

8,969 posts

207 months

Wednesday 10th February 2016
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I wouldn't be jumping in now, the US looks shaky as hell IMO.

Ozzie Osmond

21,189 posts

245 months

Wednesday 10th February 2016
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Warren Buffett, “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”.

TheMonster

100 posts

228 months

Thursday 11th February 2016
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Ozzie Osmond said:
Warren Buffett, “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”.
Right, great. Which in this context means be greedy or be fearful?

Behemoth

2,105 posts

130 months

Thursday 11th February 2016
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TheMonster said:
Right, great. Which in this context means be greedy or be fearful?
If you don't know what the current market sentiment is between these polar opposites then I wouldn't be making any investment decisions wink

gibbon

2,182 posts

206 months

Thursday 11th February 2016
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Stinky start today.

DonkeyApple

54,923 posts

168 months

Thursday 11th February 2016
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The trouble with the latter part of Buffet's statement is that it can be misconstrued to mean buy when everyone is selling. It's quite important to note that Buffet means buy when all the fools have spaffed their firepower trying to guess the bottom, the bottom is proven to be in and the departure of the silly money means you are the only buyer in town for quality assets held by distressed sellers.


TheMonster

100 posts

228 months

Thursday 11th February 2016
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Behemoth said:
If you don't know what the current market sentiment is between these polar opposites then I wouldn't be making any investment decisions wink
Oh really... I presume you mean everyone is fearful then. But look at the replies to this thread - some are greedy, some are fearful. It's not clear cut. If you do mean everyone is fearful you are basing this on market movements rather than what people are saying, in which case you are turning buffet's maxim In to "buy when the market falls" which is not the same thing.