£ vs € predictions.

[Roverload]

I've noticed that sterling hasn't been fairing to well over the last 6 months against the Euro. We were hoping to buy a house in France fairly soon, are there any projections for the exchange rate if we vote to stay in the European union or should I get my money into France now while a euro is still worth 79p? I'm a total newbie to this sort of thing so plain English 4 da dummy wud b gr8. Ttfn.

[lbc]

I am hoping the exchange rate will improve if we stay in, as also looking to buy property abroad, probably Spain.

[rdjohn]

House prices are stable here in France unlike the UK.

If the UK stays, the risk of the exchange rate falling is minimal, if Brexit happens then I guess there will be considerable turmoil for a couple of years. However I don't expect it to get to parity, like it did in 2008.

[ChrisCanning_Argentex]

Hi,

I work with clients who are exactly in your situation. I spend my days answering similar questions so happy to add my view on the markets...

At present, the GBP has become extremely weak as a result of the uncertainty surrounding the "Brexit" situation. Regardless of whether you are an "in" or an "out", the uncertainty surrounding the future of the UK has caused investors to sell their Pounds, which has caused rates drop from 1.40+ to lows of 1.23+.

We now have a couple of scenarios ahead of us:

UK vote to remain "IN":

The markets expect that this result would benefit the Pound. Whether this is the best long-term result for the UK, the IN vote would remove the uncertainty which has caused the Pound to weaken. Therefore it is likely the Pound will move higher. WORD OF WARNING - do not expect the Pound to jump straight back up to 1.40. Any gains may be short-lived and target rates of mid-1.30's are probably more likely.

UK vote to remain "OUT":

Some banks are scaring the nation with wild predictions that the UK could lose 20% instantly (HSBC). I would put this down to scaremongering.... Whilst the GBP would most probably weaken, there is a counter argument that the EU without the United Kingdom is a weaker place, and therefore we could actually see rates move higher... That said, an out vote would lead to some extremely volatile markets - which means that the timing of transfers becomes extremely important.

Please feel free to contact me should you have any questions... Ultimately, there is no definitive answer to what will happen - just a range of people's opinions...

Chris Canning (Argentex Private).

[ringram]

Futures for Sept 2017 say €1.26

[isleofthorns]

ringram said:

Futures for Sept 2017 say €1.26

not so much an indication of sentiment, rather relative int rates.

[rdjohn]

FWIW, that's probably the equivalent of saying "we have not got a clue".

[Roverload]

Many thanks for the replies so far, it's been our dream to raise our family in France, after all it's taken, this uncertainty is agonising! I suppose looking at it the wise thing to do is await the outcome of the referendum.

[2 sMoKiN bArReLs]

Roverload said:

Many thanks for the replies so far, it's been our dream to raise our family in France, after all it's taken, this uncertainty is agonising! I suppose looking at it the wise thing to do is await the outcome of the referendum.

Seize the day I say. There's always a wise reason not to do something, and in the end an opportunity might just be missed.

I never wait for the outcome of something I can't influence. (but then I do everything on impulse )

[battered]

God only knows. I have a decent sum in savings in France, missed cashing it in in 08. Now it feels about right but remember I earned that money at 67p / 1.5 in 2003-5. Could go either way, who knows? Having lived in France I say if you have a dream, do it. You may win, you may lose, but later in life when you sit there reflecting will you remember the experiences or the fact that sticking out the commute netted you 50k in house price rises?

If it's the latter by the way and the money's so important, then stay in London.