So... When do I buy my Euros?

[rdjohn]

David Smith is pretty reliable http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002179.html#more

Basically, he is saying that Sterling is well below long term averages against both $US and the Euro, so £1 - €1.10 looks like a pretty good rate.

We now know the likely outcome of negotiations and the downside is probably reflected in the current rates.

[Condi]

Marcellus said:

OK so my little pile of Euros has grown and the rate continues to go the right way for me... do I bail at 1:1 or hold on?

I dont trade the FX, but considering that Europe has a whole st load of problems which are waiting to surface themselves I dont see why we should get to 1:1 or anywhere near.

Greece is still reliant on EU support.
Italy is close to falling apart due to stagnant economy and youth unemployment.
Deutsche Bank has a $14bn debt to pay and the German state has hinted it wont support the company.
Hungary has voted against a central EU pillar.
Spain is still suffering effects of the recession nearly 10 years later.
No hope of Euro interest rates going up any time soon.

The whole thing seems to be held together with hope, sticking plasters and words. If you stick your head in the sand, you only get fked up the ass.


IMO the Sterling/Euro relationship is all wrong at the moment, we could recover back to 1.2 more easily than fall further.