European Union - Ramifications
Discussion
Dr Jekyll said:
sealtt said:
Wow, downgraded to AA by S&P. This is huge, the fundamental belief in safe and predictable conservative government in the UK is completely undermined by the referendum.
Hardly huge, France and Belgium are also AA.Not huge at all, and considering everyone wants 'safe haven' investments its not going to drive up borrowing costs for the government.
Condi said:
Dr Jekyll said:
sealtt said:
Wow, downgraded to AA by S&P. This is huge, the fundamental belief in safe and predictable conservative government in the UK is completely undermined by the referendum.
Hardly huge, France and Belgium are also AA.Not huge at all, and considering everyone wants 'safe haven' investments its not going to drive up borrowing costs for the government.
DonkeyApple said:
You say that but surely the turkeys are the ones who voted to continue the impoverishment of the people,
Come on - get off the pot - how much money have you lost since last Thursday? Because if you haven't lost any you either,a) never had any, or
b) were clever enough to take a substantial position based on a Brexit win,.
Simpo Two said:
Ozzie Osmond said:
b) were clever enough to take a substantial position based on a Brexit win,.
Or (c) cash, the IFA's nemesis. But we can all blame the pollsters for getting it wrong. Accident or spin?Ozzie Osmond said:
I'm afraid "cash" would be showing a loss of at least 10% in real global terms, which is why I didn't include it.
That crossed my mind, but as all my stuff is in GBP, as is most people's, I added 'cash' for the masses Sooo, if there was company that traded from GB to 'rest of world' - their share price should be going up 'cos their products just got a whole lot cheaper...?
Ozzie Osmond said:
DonkeyApple said:
You say that but surely the turkeys are the ones who voted to continue the impoverishment of the people,
Come on - get off the pot - how much money have you lost since last Thursday? Because if you haven't lost any you either,a) never had any, or
b) were clever enough to take a substantial position based on a Brexit win,.
Biggest likely loss over next year or so must be the London pad, which would be good news anyway as I'd like to trade up but the differential is currently too large to be sensible. And I sold the house mid 2014 and renting, so no losses there.
And no debt so quite keen to see rates climb sooner than later.
But generally net up after Friday.
Simpo Two said:
That crossed my mind, but as all my stuff is in GBP, as is most people's, I added 'cash' for the masses
Sooo, if there was company that traded from GB to 'rest of world' - their share price should be going up 'cos their products just got a whole lot cheaper...?
I work for a Spanish company so I suppose I've become cheaper to employ when you look at it like that Sooo, if there was company that traded from GB to 'rest of world' - their share price should be going up 'cos their products just got a whole lot cheaper...?
SELON said:
I sympathise with the arguments, bigger picture and all that, but to boil down "fiscal shock" into a more real world view: if it's a cold winter and GBP stays in the toilet, with no other support, "fiscal shock" means quite a few more (probably elderly and therefore probably Leave voters) people, than otherwise, will be dead.
Jockers business will have a Brexit Bounce, certainly.
Can't deny it Jockers business will have a Brexit Bounce, certainly.
Ozzie Osmond said:
DonkeyApple said:
You say that but surely the turkeys are the ones who voted to continue the impoverishment of the people,
Come on - get off the pot - how much money have you lost since last Thursday? Because if you haven't lost any you either,a) never had any, or
b) were clever enough to take a substantial position based on a Brexit win,.
Despite the turbulance I don't know anyone that has actually lost money.
Ozzie Osmond said:
DonkeyApple said:
And looking at the impact on the key EU markets it's still likely to be a better rating than theirs.
Which is an interesting point. But is there any prize for collapsing the house of cards?The obvious reality is that it wouldn't be ideal but the preference would be to force a restructuring of the mentality of the politics to bring it back into line with the wishes of the electorate of Europe. It's a run away train at the moment and the passengers in every carriage are screaming for it to stop. I personally feel that last week was the last opportunity we will get to either get the train back under control or jump off it.
Simpo Two said:
DonkeyApple said:
But generally net up after Friday.
You are a stockbroker AICMFP!But I've been working on setting up franchises in Germany and the Netherlands for the last 18 months and we've all been chatting today and if anything last week's events have moved us further forward.
DonkeyApple said:
Condi said:
Dr Jekyll said:
sealtt said:
Wow, downgraded to AA by S&P. This is huge, the fundamental belief in safe and predictable conservative government in the UK is completely undermined by the referendum.
Hardly huge, France and Belgium are also AA.Not huge at all, and considering everyone wants 'safe haven' investments its not going to drive up borrowing costs for the government.
Dr Jekyll said:
An S&P bloke was just explaining the decision on BBC news. He said it was simply the element of uncertainty that made risks to investors slightly worse, and stressed that out of 23 possible ratings AA is the third best, so still a very good rating. So it isn't a prediction of economic collapse or anywhere near it.
It's far from ideal and Fitch have nobbled us also. But the UK 10-year bond yield today fell below 1% for the first time in history which tends to suggest the downgrades are as much a concern over our key trade partners as ourselves?
Things are going to look grim for a while and key media will continue to drum up eyeballs through negativity and pot stiring but we are in a period of cat and mouse with the EU machine.
A big question we were mulling over today is how keen hedge fund managers were on decimating their personal stores of wealth in the prime London property stakes. . Just how keen will they be to make their clients money when it's coming out of their own pockets?
Dr Jekyll said:
DonkeyApple said:
Condi said:
Dr Jekyll said:
sealtt said:
Wow, downgraded to AA by S&P. This is huge, the fundamental belief in safe and predictable conservative government in the UK is completely undermined by the referendum.
Hardly huge, France and Belgium are also AA.Not huge at all, and considering everyone wants 'safe haven' investments its not going to drive up borrowing costs for the government.
In our opinion, this outcome is a seminal event, and will lead to a less predictable, stable, and effective policy framework in the U.K. We have reassessed our view of the U.K.’s institutional assessment and now no longer consider it a strength in our assessment of the rating.
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