European Union - Ramifications

European Union - Ramifications

Author
Discussion

Dr Jekyll

23,820 posts

260 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
sealtt said:
Wow, downgraded to AA by S&P. This is huge, the fundamental belief in safe and predictable conservative government in the UK is completely undermined by the referendum.
Hardly huge, France and Belgium are also AA.

wormus

14,509 posts

202 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Getting tired of the remain camp banging on how it's 'not fair'. The way some people conduct themselves is appalling.

Condi

17,089 posts

170 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Dr Jekyll said:
sealtt said:
Wow, downgraded to AA by S&P. This is huge, the fundamental belief in safe and predictable conservative government in the UK is completely undermined by the referendum.
Hardly huge, France and Belgium are also AA.
And weren't S+P the final agency to rate us AAA anyway? Moody's downgraded us a while ago unless we had been upgraded and I'd not noticed.


Not huge at all, and considering everyone wants 'safe haven' investments its not going to drive up borrowing costs for the government.

DonkeyApple

54,928 posts

168 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Condi said:
Dr Jekyll said:
sealtt said:
Wow, downgraded to AA by S&P. This is huge, the fundamental belief in safe and predictable conservative government in the UK is completely undermined by the referendum.
Hardly huge, France and Belgium are also AA.
And weren't S+P the final agency to rate us AAA anyway? Moody's downgraded us a while ago unless we had been upgraded and I'd not noticed.


Not huge at all, and considering everyone wants 'safe haven' investments its not going to drive up borrowing costs for the government.
And looking at the impact on the key EU markets it's still likely to be a better rating than theirs. We are in a staring competition with the EU who now have to contend more immediately with finding €40bln for the Italian banks as an immediate concern and the Italian people are being reminded what a bail-in is. And ultimately, regardless of what any politicians or civil servants say in any country, their people and their industries all want to keep the status quo with Britain. As do we.

Ozzie Osmond

21,189 posts

245 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
You say that but surely the turkeys are the ones who voted to continue the impoverishment of the people,
Come on - get off the pot - how much money have you lost since last Thursday? Because if you haven't lost any you either,
a) never had any, frown or
b) were clever enough to take a substantial position based on a Brexit win,. biggrin

Ozzie Osmond

21,189 posts

245 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
And looking at the impact on the key EU markets it's still likely to be a better rating than theirs.
Which is an interesting point. But is there any prize for collapsing the house of cards?

Simpo Two

85,149 posts

264 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Ozzie Osmond said:
b) were clever enough to take a substantial position based on a Brexit win,. biggrin
Or (c) cash, the IFA's nemesis. But we can all blame the pollsters for getting it wrong. Accident or spin?

Ozzie Osmond

21,189 posts

245 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Simpo Two said:
Ozzie Osmond said:
b) were clever enough to take a substantial position based on a Brexit win,. biggrin
Or (c) cash, the IFA's nemesis. But we can all blame the pollsters for getting it wrong. Accident or spin?
I'm afraid "cash" would be showing a loss of at least 10% in real global terms, which is why I didn't include it.

Simpo Two

85,149 posts

264 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Ozzie Osmond said:
I'm afraid "cash" would be showing a loss of at least 10% in real global terms, which is why I didn't include it.
That crossed my mind, but as all my stuff is in GBP, as is most people's, I added 'cash' for the masses smile

Sooo, if there was company that traded from GB to 'rest of world' - their share price should be going up 'cos their products just got a whole lot cheaper...?

DonkeyApple

54,928 posts

168 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Ozzie Osmond said:
DonkeyApple said:
You say that but surely the turkeys are the ones who voted to continue the impoverishment of the people,
Come on - get off the pot - how much money have you lost since last Thursday? Because if you haven't lost any you either,
a) never had any, frown or
b) were clever enough to take a substantial position based on a Brexit win,. biggrin
Been one of the highest volume weeks since 2008. Which is always good for comms. wink. And given the direction of the markets the book has prospered.

Biggest likely loss over next year or so must be the London pad, which would be good news anyway as I'd like to trade up but the differential is currently too large to be sensible. And I sold the house mid 2014 and renting, so no losses there.

And no debt so quite keen to see rates climb sooner than later.

But generally net up after Friday.

Simpo Two

85,149 posts

264 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
But generally net up after Friday.
You are a stockbroker AICMFP!

andy_s

19,397 posts

258 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Simpo Two said:
That crossed my mind, but as all my stuff is in GBP, as is most people's, I added 'cash' for the masses smile

Sooo, if there was company that traded from GB to 'rest of world' - their share price should be going up 'cos their products just got a whole lot cheaper...?
I work for a Spanish company so I suppose I've become cheaper to employ when you look at it like that smile

Ozzie Osmond

21,189 posts

245 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
A drink for the Donkey and a drink for Simpo.

As one of my mates used to say, "It's all part of growing up and being British"!

Jockman

17,912 posts

159 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
SELON said:
I sympathise with the arguments, bigger picture and all that, but to boil down "fiscal shock" into a more real world view: if it's a cold winter and GBP stays in the toilet, with no other support, "fiscal shock" means quite a few more (probably elderly and therefore probably Leave voters) people, than otherwise, will be dead.

Jockers business will have a Brexit Bounce, certainly.
Can't deny it biggrin

Jockman

17,912 posts

159 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Ozzie Osmond said:
DonkeyApple said:
You say that but surely the turkeys are the ones who voted to continue the impoverishment of the people,
Come on - get off the pot - how much money have you lost since last Thursday? Because if you haven't lost any you either,
a) never had any, frown or
b) were clever enough to take a substantial position based on a Brexit win,. biggrin
Ozzie you know damn well the difference between a paper loss and an actual loss wink

Despite the turbulance I don't know anyone that has actually lost money.

DonkeyApple

54,928 posts

168 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Ozzie Osmond said:
DonkeyApple said:
And looking at the impact on the key EU markets it's still likely to be a better rating than theirs.
Which is an interesting point. But is there any prize for collapsing the house of cards?
Well, it would be a prize akin to having the prettiest turd at the village fete, that's for sure. biggrin

The obvious reality is that it wouldn't be ideal but the preference would be to force a restructuring of the mentality of the politics to bring it back into line with the wishes of the electorate of Europe. It's a run away train at the moment and the passengers in every carriage are screaming for it to stop. I personally feel that last week was the last opportunity we will get to either get the train back under control or jump off it.

DonkeyApple

54,928 posts

168 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Simpo Two said:
DonkeyApple said:
But generally net up after Friday.
You are a stockbroker AICMFP!
wink It'll hit me in the longer run as I suspect people will have less money to trade with and we'll probably get a bit of a price war but short term, the volatility is very good.

But I've been working on setting up franchises in Germany and the Netherlands for the last 18 months and we've all been chatting today and if anything last week's events have moved us further forward.


Dr Jekyll

23,820 posts

260 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
Condi said:
Dr Jekyll said:
sealtt said:
Wow, downgraded to AA by S&P. This is huge, the fundamental belief in safe and predictable conservative government in the UK is completely undermined by the referendum.
Hardly huge, France and Belgium are also AA.
And weren't S+P the final agency to rate us AAA anyway? Moody's downgraded us a while ago unless we had been upgraded and I'd not noticed.


Not huge at all, and considering everyone wants 'safe haven' investments its not going to drive up borrowing costs for the government.
And looking at the impact on the key EU markets it's still likely to be a better rating than theirs. We are in a staring competition with the EU who now have to contend more immediately with finding €40bln for the Italian banks as an immediate concern and the Italian people are being reminded what a bail-in is. And ultimately, regardless of what any politicians or civil servants say in any country, their people and their industries all want to keep the status quo with Britain. As do we.
An S&P bloke was just explaining the decision on BBC news. He said it was simply the element of uncertainty that made risks to investors slightly worse, and stressed that out of 23 possible ratings AA is the third best, so still a very good rating. So it isn't a prediction of economic collapse or anywhere near it.

DonkeyApple

54,928 posts

168 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Dr Jekyll said:
An S&P bloke was just explaining the decision on BBC news. He said it was simply the element of uncertainty that made risks to investors slightly worse, and stressed that out of 23 possible ratings AA is the third best, so still a very good rating. So it isn't a prediction of economic collapse or anywhere near it.
It's far from ideal and Fitch have nobbled us also.

But the UK 10-year bond yield today fell below 1% for the first time in history which tends to suggest the downgrades are as much a concern over our key trade partners as ourselves?

Things are going to look grim for a while and key media will continue to drum up eyeballs through negativity and pot stiring but we are in a period of cat and mouse with the EU machine.

A big question we were mulling over today is how keen hedge fund managers were on decimating their personal stores of wealth in the prime London property stakes. biggrin. Just how keen will they be to make their clients money when it's coming out of their own pockets? smile

sealtt

3,091 posts

157 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Dr Jekyll said:
DonkeyApple said:
Condi said:
Dr Jekyll said:
sealtt said:
Wow, downgraded to AA by S&P. This is huge, the fundamental belief in safe and predictable conservative government in the UK is completely undermined by the referendum.
Hardly huge, France and Belgium are also AA.
And weren't S+P the final agency to rate us AAA anyway? Moody's downgraded us a while ago unless we had been upgraded and I'd not noticed.


Not huge at all, and considering everyone wants 'safe haven' investments its not going to drive up borrowing costs for the government.
And looking at the impact on the key EU markets it's still likely to be a better rating than theirs. We are in a staring competition with the EU who now have to contend more immediately with finding €40bln for the Italian banks as an immediate concern and the Italian people are being reminded what a bail-in is. And ultimately, regardless of what any politicians or civil servants say in any country, their people and their industries all want to keep the status quo with Britain. As do we.
An S&P bloke was just explaining the decision on BBC news. He said it was simply the element of uncertainty that made risks to investors slightly worse, and stressed that out of 23 possible ratings AA is the third best, so still a very good rating. So it isn't a prediction of economic collapse or anywhere near it.
I am aware of the S&P scale and I made my comment in that context. It was not the rating itself so much as the reasoning for it:

In our opinion, this outcome is a seminal event, and will lead to a less predictable, stable, and effective policy framework in the U.K. We have reassessed our view of the U.K.’s institutional assessment and now no longer consider it a strength in our assessment of the rating.