European Union - Ramifications

[walm]

shakotan said:

It is entirely possible to beleive that something is for a good cause, but not beleive you are the right person to lead the country in that cause.

I think you just described the exact opposite of Boris's mindset!!

[fredt]

shakotan said:

It is entirely possible to beleive that something is for a good cause, but not beleive you are the right person to lead the country in that cause.

Everyone who vote Out didn't think they were eligible for the PM's job.

Entirely possible yes, but in this case not very probable is it?

[hornet]

shakotan said:

Just look up the tariff rates. They can't differ country to coutry, they apply unilaterally to everyone not in an individual trade agreement.

For anyone interested in trade tariffs :-

https://www.gov.uk/trade-tariff
https://www.gov.uk/trade-tariff/sections

Gives EU and "Third Country" (i.e. WTO) position per product category.

UK rules are harmonised with EU Union Customs Code :-

http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/index_en.htm
http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/customs/custo...

[NRS]

walm said:

shakotan said:

It is entirely possible to beleive that something is for a good cause, but not beleive you are the right person to lead the country in that cause.

I think you just described the exact opposite of Boris's mindset!!

The one friend I mentioned it to thinks it's because whoever goes in next will never be remembered well (unless we get an awesome deal, which is unlikely). Likely a recession and cuts, then a massive extra amount of work to do on top of the normal stuff.

So the opposite view would be Boris wants to be popular as he followed what people asked for, but avoids having his name dragged through the mud now. Then in the future when things are more calm he can stand for leader and will be a popular choice because of what he did in the past.

Most likely you will decide which of the two explainations it is based on the way you voted.

[blueg33]

fk fk fk.

My main investor has just pulled out his £200m investment citing uncertainty caused by Brexit. That's roughly 1000 homes I can't build over the next couple of years with all of the associated knock on impact on suppliers etc. The investor is a major UK pension fund and they have put ALL investment on hold.

This comes after the other investor pulled out yesterday.

[Jockman]

blueg33 said:

fk fk fk.

My main investor has just pulled out his £200m investment citing uncertainty caused by Brexit. That's roughly 1000 homes I can't build over the next couple of years with all of the associated knock on impact on suppliers etc. The investor is a major UK pension fund and they have put ALL investment on hold.

This comes after the other investor pulled out yesterday.

What's you contingency plan?

[blueg33]

Jockman said:

What's you contingency plan?

Seek other investors....none forthcoming at the moment even ones who have funded us since the business started. All cite uncertainty meaning they don't want further exposure to uk real estate and income strip

Put all development on hold because we cant cashflow that much. Look at overhead, renegotiate all land deals to buy time

[Jockman]

blueg33 said:

Jockman said:

What's you contingency plan?

Seek other investors....none forthcoming at the moment even ones who have funded us since the business started. All cite uncertainty meaning they don't want further exposure to uk real estate and income strip

Put all development on hold because we cant cashflow that much. Look at overhead, renegotiate all land deals to buy time

When will cashflow dry up?

Is Govt funding on hold too?

[Adam B]

Some interesting stats on Scotland demanding independence from UK to join EU

In 2014 referendum SNP assumed $110/barrel. Scottish oil tax revenue was £2.2bn, SNP projected this to be £7.5bn, it has fallen to £130m.

If Scotland leaves UK it would lose the £15bn fiscal transfer it gets.

Under EU rules Scotland would be a "rich country" and would have to be a net contributor to the EU

Would be quite happy if they left UK frankly, the Scots however would be nuts

[blueg33]

Jockman said:

blueg33 said:

Jockman said:

What's you contingency plan?

Seek other investors....none forthcoming at the moment even ones who have funded us since the business started. All cite uncertainty meaning they don't want further exposure to uk real estate and income strip

Put all development on hold because we cant cashflow that much. Look at overhead, renegotiate all land deals to buy time

When will cashflow dry up?

Is Govt funding on hold too?

Cashflow issues will start mid August due to the status of pipeline, but the main issue is that we wont be able to proceed with our deals as they are cash hungry. Government funding is not applicable to our product until its built, even then its not Govt funded as such, its a bit hard to explain the way the sector works.

New funders are tricky in this sector. We have spent the last 12 months securing this investor.

[Jockman]

Adam B said:

Some interesting stats on Scotland demanding independence from UK to join EU

In 2014 referendum SNP assumed $110/barrel. Scottish oil tax revenue was £2.2bn, SNP projected this to be £7.5bn, it has fallen to £130m.

If Scotland leaves UK it would lose the £15bn fiscal transfer it gets.

Under EU rules Scotland would be a "rich country" and would have to be a net contributor to the EU

Would be quite happy if they left UK frankly, the Scots however would be nuts

Sturgeon is just going through the motions. She does not have enough support to be certain of a win anyway.

[Jockman]

blueg33 said:

Jockman said:

blueg33 said:

Jockman said:

What's you contingency plan?

Seek other investors....none forthcoming at the moment even ones who have funded us since the business started. All cite uncertainty meaning they don't want further exposure to uk real estate and income strip

Put all development on hold because we cant cashflow that much. Look at overhead, renegotiate all land deals to buy time

When will cashflow dry up?

Is Govt funding on hold too?

Cashflow issues will start mid August due to the status of pipeline, but the main issue is that we wont be able to proceed with our deals as they are cash hungry. Government funding is not applicable to our product until its built, even then its not Govt funded as such, its a bit hard to explain the way the sector works.

New funders are tricky in this sector. We have spent the last 12 months securing this investor.

Sorry to hear that. No funding from HACA or are you in a >totally< different marketplace that cannot be realigned?

[blueg33]

Jockman said:

blueg33 said:

Jockman said:

blueg33 said:

Jockman said:

What's you contingency plan?

Seek other investors....none forthcoming at the moment even ones who have funded us since the business started. All cite uncertainty meaning they don't want further exposure to uk real estate and income strip

Put all development on hold because we cant cashflow that much. Look at overhead, renegotiate all land deals to buy time

When will cashflow dry up?

Is Govt funding on hold too?

Cashflow issues will start mid August due to the status of pipeline, but the main issue is that we wont be able to proceed with our deals as they are cash hungry. Government funding is not applicable to our product until its built, even then its not Govt funded as such, its a bit hard to explain the way the sector works.

New funders are tricky in this sector. We have spent the last 12 months securing this investor.

Sorry to hear that. No funding from HACA or are you in a >totally< different marketplace that cannot be realigned?

No, the whole premise for this type of development is no public subsidy, that way occupants can get the right type of housing benefit.

HCA grant has about a 2 year lead time too.

[Dick Dastardly]

If you want an intro to a very talented development finance specialist then let me know.

[Jockman]

blueg33 said:

Jockman said:

blueg33 said:

Jockman said:

blueg33 said:

Jockman said:

What's you contingency plan?

Seek other investors....none forthcoming at the moment even ones who have funded us since the business started. All cite uncertainty meaning they don't want further exposure to uk real estate and income strip

Put all development on hold because we cant cashflow that much. Look at overhead, renegotiate all land deals to buy time

When will cashflow dry up?

Is Govt funding on hold too?

Cashflow issues will start mid August due to the status of pipeline, but the main issue is that we wont be able to proceed with our deals as they are cash hungry. Government funding is not applicable to our product until its built, even then its not Govt funded as such, its a bit hard to explain the way the sector works.

New funders are tricky in this sector. We have spent the last 12 months securing this investor.

Sorry to hear that. No funding from HACA or are you in a >totally< different marketplace that cannot be realigned?

No, the whole premise for this type of development is no public subsidy, that way occupants can get the right type of housing benefit.

HCA grant has about a 2 year lead time too.

Fair Dinkum.

We used to tap into HACA underspends every year but they only ever became apparent in January each year and they would not be sufficient to address the size of projects you undertake.

Good Luck.

[blueg33]

Dick Dastardly said:

If you want an intro to a very talented development finance specialist then let me know.

Thanks. It's long term investment I need. Ie the exit.

If I borrow cash to build without an exit, the group would be trading insolvently because of the scale.

[Ozzie Osmond]

blueg33 said:

If I borrow cash to build without an exit, the group would be trading insolvently because of the scale.

I've never heard that before, and I don't think it's right. However, you may be running a business which is so marginal that you don't really know whether or not you're profitable or not and are actually looking to lay off that risk onto other people - the lenders.

In UK you're only insolvent if you can't pay your debts on time. If it's a limited company the directors are responsible for making sure the company can pay its debts - and they only incur personally liability if they trade without a positive balance sheet and/or positive cash flow. In addition, "Wrongful Trading" carries significant penalties and only arises if you knew or ought to have known that your company was going to the wall.

[DonkeyApple]

shakotan said:

Just look up the tariff rates. They can't differ country to coutry, they apply unilaterally to everyone not in an individual trade agreement.

That wasn't what I meant.

I meant the implication to the relevant UK industries that it would impact. Ie what are the key industries and how it impacts competitiveness etc.

[DonkeyApple]

twinturboz said:

DonkeyApple said:

I found this article an interesting read with regards to how Brexit got us the weaker currency that we have been so keen for:

Indeed, the Japanese are looking on with envy and every other G7 country has has tried to weaken their currency over the last year or two.

The one big issue over this negotiation is passporting, and I just don't see for now why the Eu will let us have that easily. They are already frothing at the mouth at the chance to move the banks to Frankfurt or Paris. What will persuade them to let us have full passporting access?

From their point of view why would they want the European financial centre outside of the Eurozone.

Edited by twinturboz on Thursday 30th June 10:39

They don't. And they've never wanted it in the UK. The problem they have now is that they need to build up a replacement so as to keep their economy going and they don't have enough time to do so and they will have an aggressive competitor in their door step.

[DonkeyApple]

Ozzie Osmond said:

twinturboz said:

From their point of view why would they want the European financial centre outside of the Eurozone.

Well, that's always been my view and London has nonetheless managed to cling on at the top while UK is an EU member. But now the continentals have the opportunity to play a much stronger hand.

I'd always seen Frankfurt as a strong business contender but why would a banker with a nice, wealthy lifestyle in London want to move to Frankfurt? That might give Paris an edge.

And whilst on that subject, I'm sure I'm not alone in noticing the HUGE amount of French people in London these last few years. Moving about in London I reckon French and Polish are the two languages I hear the most - and that doesn't exclude English.

Except they don't. They can't currently compete against London and London is about to be cut free from the restraining nature of the EU regulatory environment. London is about to be allowed to be aggressive and competitive. A lot of office workers who have been plodding along will need to readjust their outlook.