So why is the FTSE 100 nearly at a 52w high?

So why is the FTSE 100 nearly at a 52w high?

Author
Discussion

Ozzie Osmond

21,189 posts

245 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
sidicks said:
iantr said:
I think you misunderstand what an IFA does. If you want advice on market timing then you need a tipster of some sort, not an IFA.
It's been explained on numerous occasions, yet the same (apparent) misunderstandings come up time and time again...
;(
....hardly surprising, given that Joe Public has the not unreasonable expectation of "Financial Advice" from a "Financial Adviser".

If the business were to describe itself more clearly as "Asset Allocation Consultant" or whatever, there would perhaps be less scope for misunderstanding.

ATG

20,480 posts

271 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
Ozzie Osmond said:
....hardly surprising, given that Joe Public has the not unreasonable expectation of "Financial Advice" from a "Financial Adviser".

If the business were to describe itself more clearly as "Asset Allocation Consultant" or whatever, there would perhaps be less scope for misunderstanding.
If someone thinks it's reasonable to include "market timing" under the category "financial advice" in the context of Joe Public's savings, they are fundamentally wrong.

Ozzie Osmond

21,189 posts

245 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
ATG said:
If someone thinks it's reasonable to include "market timing" under the category "financial advice" in the context of Joe Public's savings, they are fundamentally wrong.
I think the only person who mentioned market timing was iantr. However, if one makes a list of the "financial" things which IFAs don't advise upon it is somewhat lengthy. In contrast, the list of financial matters which they do advise upon seems to me remarkably short. I guess there's simply been too much smoke & mirrors around the whole sector.

ATG

20,480 posts

271 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
Ozzie Osmond said:
ATG said:
If someone thinks it's reasonable to include "market timing" under the category "financial advice" in the context of Joe Public's savings, they are fundamentally wrong.
I think the only person who mentioned market timing was iantr. However, if one makes a list of the "financial" things which IFAs don't advise upon it is somewhat lengthy. In contrast, the list of financial matters which they do advise upon seems to me remarkably short. I guess there's simply been too much smoke & mirrors around the whole sector.
I've never used one, so I'd be genuinely interested to hear what gaps they leave in their services. I'd expect an assessment of circumstances and objectives, reality check on risk and reward, then a tax efficient plan minimising fees. Periodic reviews thereafter.

eltawater

3,107 posts

178 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
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Alpinestars said:
ellroy said:
Take a look at the index, it's market weighted by capitalisation, most of the businesses have limited direct UK earnings and plenty of overseas earnings, especially those big oils and miners. Then take a look at commodity pricing, emerging markets and the impact of a cheap currency in sterling and a nice appreciation of the dollar.
This.

Look at "domestic" businesses like house builders, financial services etc. they're down c30 %. By contrast, some miners are up 50%, especially gold and silver miners.

Gold and silver miners are safe haven's, commodities and oil appear to have bottomed and are now rising, earnings in non sterlimg currencies are worth more in sterling.
I've looked more to the companies who were hit hard on brexit result day and have stayed down since.

They're mostly companies who rely on trading within the UK, such as retailers who will need to now pay more for the goods the public wish to buy due to the weakness of the pound. They're also the companies who employ large numbers of staff in the UK in shops and offices. I expect Christmas to be reasonable this year as everyone goes for one last good blowout and the effects won't have trickled down yet, so there'll be many people in the new year wondering what all the panic and fuss was about.

Mid to second half of next year is when I think it will start to bite as companies try to cut staff costs and recruitment goes on hold, no one wants to be the next Comet or BHS.




sidicks

25,218 posts

220 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
Ozzie Osmond said:
....hardly surprising, given that Joe Public has the not unreasonable expectation of "Financial Advice" from a "Financial Adviser".

If the business were to describe itself more clearly as "Asset Allocation Consultant" or whatever, there would perhaps be less scope for misunderstanding.
Except of course, that would be fundamental wrong.
banghead

And "investment fortune telling" wouldn't be a reasonable expectation of the term 'financial advice'.

Behemoth

2,105 posts

130 months

Friday 22nd July 2016
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Market timing tipsters are predicting pretty bad GDP figures before too long. The purchasing manager's index has a very good track record.

Financial Times said:
..business activity slumping at the fastest rate since the height of the global financial crisis in early-2009
https://next.ft.com/content/0ad2e3a1-8157-34da-b19...

Ginge R

4,761 posts

218 months

Sunday 24th July 2016
quotequote all
ATG said:
I've never used one, so I'd be genuinely interested to hear what gaps they leave in their services. I'd expect an assessment of circumstances and objectives, reality check on risk and reward, then a tax efficient plan minimising fees. Periodic reviews thereafter.
IFA aren't soothsayers - they never were. It was just 1980s financial sector marketing BS which predicated the myth and which lingered. I enjoy fund research, and you can advise a client on investment timetable or maybe inserting a tactical pause or advancement of an investment schedule, but 99% of timing impact (good or bad) is fortuitous or unfortunate.

A decent IFA will establish strategy, identify objectives, and fill in the pieces. It's not all creating a confetti of dealing slips or generating light at the expense of heat. It's a long game, and these past (mad, hectic and all consuming) couple of months have been, in my relatively short experience of the sector - 6 years or so - some of the most turbulent and worrying, yet satisfying and rewarding.

Just keeping ahead of themes, trends, legislation, compliancy, regulatory matters and the markets takes up 12/15 hours a week. I believe that an adviser's worth is only merited (or otherwise) and demonstrable after five years or so. Unless of course, the adviser is a complete biff or unless the working relationship becomes untenable before then.

bad company

18,483 posts

265 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
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I have used an IFA to look my pension & offshore funds for over 10 years, since I got shot of Lloyds Private Bank who charged large fees for losing my money. Overall I have been very happy with the service, I have drawn a very good retirement income and paid minimal tax thereon.

I still keep my own share & fund portfolios though, mainly as a profitable hobby.

audidoody

8,595 posts

255 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
Here is my IFA experience.

Many years ago I was working freelance and had to put away a third of my income for tax. My accountant recommended a London IFA and I duly signed up with him. I had £8,000 to be invested for a year when it would be needed for tax. The IFA recommended a new Gilt fund that promised excellent returns (I forget the exact rate). It was based in Gibraltar but that didn't seem to concern him. As he was the IFA I nodded my head and opened an account with this Gibraltar-based provider.

Over the next year I received Statements of account that showed my investment was growing quite nicely. However something seemed odd. The statements all looked as if they had been typed on a manual typewriter rather than being generated by computer. I found this rather unusual. so I wrote and requested the return of my £8,000 and closure of the account. A cheque arrived in due course and I put the money in a building society account.

I forgot all about the Gibraltar investment company. Until about 18 months later when it went spectacularly bust, its managers arrested, and many thousands of investors losing all their savings.

The company my IFA recommended was Barlow Clowes. For those of you unfamiliar with the saga here it is:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barlow_Clowes

I've never used an IFA since.

227bhp

10,203 posts

127 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
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Wish i'd bought shares the day after Brexit day!

Piersman2

6,596 posts

198 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
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My IFA experience.

My brother had had some fencing done at his new house a good few years back. A few months later I needed some done so asked for the fencer's number and rang him up.

Me: Hi, can I get a price for some fencing?
Him: Oh no, sorry I don't do fencing anymore, am an IFA now.

Never been near an IFA since.

Oh, and my ex used to work at an IFA company as a receptionist, the sales guys used to come in every morning, log on to the computers, check what product was paying the maximum commission that day, and then head out to sell it to whoever they could.


bad company

18,483 posts

265 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
Piersman2 said:
My IFA experience.

My brother had had some fencing done at his new house a good few years back. A few months later I needed some done so asked for the fencer's number and rang him up.

Me: Hi, can I get a price for some fencing?
Him: Oh no, sorry I don't do fencing anymore, am an IFA now.

Never been near an IFA since.

Oh, and my ex used to work at an IFA company as a receptionist, the sales guys used to come in every morning, log on to the computers, check what product was paying the maximum commission that day, and then head out to sell it to whoever they could.
Was that long ago? I think the industry is much better regulated now.

I remember the days of the 'Hambro' reps or Hambrosians as we used to call them. All commission only so very high pressure sales. My IFA has served me well.

FarmyardPants

4,099 posts

217 months

Thursday 28th July 2016
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I think there'll be a US-led correction soon..

sidicks

25,218 posts

220 months

Thursday 28th July 2016
quotequote all
Piersman2 said:
My IFA experience.

My brother had had some fencing done at his new house a good few years back. A few months later I needed some done so asked for the fencer's number and rang him up.

Me: Hi, can I get a price for some fencing?
Him: Oh no, sorry I don't do fencing anymore, am an IFA now.

Never been near an IFA since.

Oh, and my ex used to work at an IFA company as a receptionist, the sales guys used to come in every morning, log on to the computers, check what product was paying the maximum commission that day, and then head out to sell it to whoever they could.
Not sure the ponit you are trying to make? You do realise that you can't just set up as an IFA , you do need certain qualifications? Which presumably he was studying for while doing the fencing?!

jonamv8

3,145 posts

165 months

Thursday 28th July 2016
quotequote all
What's the consensus on the BOJ and any effects on their announcement on the FTSE???

Ozzie Osmond

21,189 posts

245 months

Friday 29th July 2016
quotequote all
jonamv8 said:
What's the consensus on the BOJ and any effects on their announcement on the FTSE???
I thought the bigger point was the effects of Brexit on Japan and rest of world!

This latest government lunacy of postponing the Hinckley Point nuclear decision will IMO have a severe impact on UK economy. If the government is getting the jitters over investing money how the hell do they think they're going to "encourage big business to invest in Britain"? Utter madness.

greygoose

8,224 posts

194 months

Friday 29th July 2016
quotequote all
Ozzie Osmond said:
jonamv8 said:
What's the consensus on the BOJ and any effects on their announcement on the FTSE???
I thought the bigger point was the effects of Brexit on Japan and rest of world!

This latest government lunacy of postponing the Hinckley Point nuclear decision will IMO have a severe impact on UK economy. If the government is getting the jitters over investing money how the hell do they think they're going to "encourage big business to invest in Britain"? Utter madness.
The governments have been scared of big projects for decades, look at the power industry, airport expansion, roads and rail, it is a history of endless reviews and no decisions as could lose an MP a seat somewhere. I am not sure it will have a wider impact even though I agree the approach is a farce, the vote by the board of EDF was quite close anyway so I would have thought more dithering would lead them to abandon it.

Simpo Two

85,147 posts

264 months

Friday 29th July 2016
quotequote all
Ozzie Osmond said:
This latest government lunacy of postponing the Hinckley Point nuclear decision will IMO have a severe impact on UK economy. If the government is getting the jitters over investing money how the hell do they think they're going to "encourage big business to invest in Britain"? Utter madness.
Quite. The PM should have come out to explain and put people's minds at ease rather than let them flap.

As ever, there will be a reason that makes sense to the people that made it, you just have to figure out what it is.

Behemoth

2,105 posts

130 months

Saturday 30th July 2016
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Simpo Two said:
As ever, there will be a reason that makes sense to the people that made it, you just have to figure out what it is.
This one's pretty easy, imo. A Brexit gamble to soften the French stance. There aren't many cards up the sleeve and this is the strongest May's got with the French by a country mile.