Day trading

[R11ysf]

jonamv8 said:

PM not as good as AM for me, shorting and missing. 14 points loss on my earlier 30 ish gains.

Walk away or look for another in the next hour is the question.

Just offering this as a balance to anyone who thinks winning is easy. If I' missed the morning session I would be down overall today...

Jon, not sure how long you've been doing this so feel free to tell me to ps off but how many points are you looking for generally and what is your target for trading? If you are only looking to take 10 points or so from a trade then there are only 2 ways to make proper money. Either trade that trade many times a day (50+) or look to trade less but in big size. Personally I prefer method A as it give you more data points from which to judge your trading.

Also with reference to:

jonamv8 said:

I've just gone long (BUY) on Bund. 11/08/16 13:30:18

Open 167.78

Stop Limit 167.57 to protect me against losses, potential loss of 21 points

Auto close trade at 168.48, a potential gain of 70 points although in reality I'd probably manually exit before but I could get called out of the office


Wish me luck

If we presume that you are just flipping a coin when putting this trade on and that the market is equally 50:50 in whether it goes up or down then this method, over time, will be a guaranteed loser. If the market has equal chance of going up or down 10 points, 20 points or 100 points then you will always hit your stop before your target. In order to make your target of 3.5 times your stop you will need to be exceptionally right a lot of the time. Even if you are amazingly correct and the market moves 60 points your way it can still come back to a loser even though your trade was 3 times onside vs your stop.

If you told me the market was 50:50 i would always have (for example) a 20 point winner and a 50 point stop. That way even if I have no skill at all I would be 2.5 time more likely to have a winner and if I can then add some trading skill on top of that I can then push it even more in my favour. Losers will be bigger but much less often.

anyway feel free to ignore all this, just my thinking out loud.

[jonamv8]

Rescued my poor afternoon with 2 decent final trades:

GBP EUR/USD DFT SELL 1.11671 to 1.1155 12.10 pts
GBP Gold DFT SELL 1347.3 to 1346.5 8 pts

Think that's me done for the day. 25.2 points total gain

[Ozzie Osmond]

I think it's much more like the horses, where punters hope their knowledge of the horses improves the odds, than it is like roulette. There are elements of poker as well since all of the "bets" are made against a player on the other side.

As ever, a narrow win doesn't cut the mustard because you still have to pay the house's margin.

[walm]

jonamv8 said:

Rescued my poor afternoon with 2 decent final trades:

GBP EUR/USD DFT SELL 1.11671 to 1.1155 12.10 pts
GBP Gold DFT SELL 1347.3 to 1346.5 8 pts

Think that's me done for the day. 25.2 points total gain

Going back to my original points on page one.... but with all due respect this looks very much like gambling / flipping a coin to me.

I guess you might have some sort of momentum tracking or bizarre technical analysis going on but I simply don't believe you can have any conviction in a 0.1% move in an FX rate.

You are seriously doing >£100k bets here??
(Assuming minimum £10 a point on the FX.)

Utter madness.

[Ozzie Osmond]

Meanwhile "investors" have made 15% in the past 4 months.

[jonamv8]

R11ysf said:

jonamv8 said:

PM not as good as AM for me, shorting and missing. 14 points loss on my earlier 30 ish gains.

Walk away or look for another in the next hour is the question.

Just offering this as a balance to anyone who thinks winning is easy. If I' missed the morning session I would be down overall today...

Jon, not sure how long you've been doing this so feel free to tell me to ps off but how many points are you looking for generally and what is your target for trading? If you are only looking to take 10 points or so from a trade then there are only 2 ways to make proper money. Either trade that trade many times a day (50+) or look to trade less but in big size. Personally I prefer method A as it give you more data points from which to judge your trading.

Also with reference to:

jonamv8 said:

I've just gone long (BUY) on Bund. 11/08/16 13:30:18

Open 167.78

Stop Limit 167.57 to protect me against losses, potential loss of 21 points

Auto close trade at 168.48, a potential gain of 70 points although in reality I'd probably manually exit before but I could get called out of the office


Wish me luck

If we presume that you are just flipping a coin when putting this trade on and that the market is equally 50:50 in whether it goes up or down then this method, over time, will be a guaranteed loser. If the market has equal chance of going up or down 10 points, 20 points or 100 points then you will always hit your stop before your target. In order to make your target of 3.5 times your stop you will need to be exceptionally right a lot of the time. Even if you are amazingly correct and the market moves 60 points your way it can still come back to a loser even though your trade was 3 times onside vs your stop.

If you told me the market was 50:50 i would always have (for example) a 20 point winner and a 50 point stop. That way even if I have no skill at all I would be 2.5 time more likely to have a winner and if I can then add some trading skill on top of that I can then push it even more in my favour. Losers will be bigger but much less often.

anyway feel free to ignore all this, just my thinking out loud.

Been trading on and off for 5 years, more seriously though in the last 12 months due to work allowing me more flexibility and time to commit to it. I'm working with a strategy that is generally focused toward forex and indices but can be applied to commodities or individual stocks, albeit with less success.

I'm still learning, I don't think I'll ever be an expert.

I traded 11 times today. 3 of my trades were a hunch (read gamble) but I occasionally take those to spice things up as working from a strategy can be quite repetitive. I look to go large on my exposure rather than trade 50 times a day. My stops are generally quite tight, that's just the way I trade, each to their own.

Bund is new to me and to be honest it was a gamble but I am a firm believer that to learn you have to lose first so I was testing my strategy and getting some screen time with Bund, you are right though it was a bit of a coin flip as opposed to my more serious bets.

[jonamv8]

walm said:

jonamv8 said:

Rescued my poor afternoon with 2 decent final trades:

GBP EUR/USD DFT SELL 1.11671 to 1.1155 12.10 pts
GBP Gold DFT SELL 1347.3 to 1346.5 8 pts

Think that's me done for the day. 25.2 points total gain

Going back to my original points on page one.... but with all due respect this looks very much like gambling / flipping a coin to me.

I guess you might have some sort of momentum tracking or bizarre technical analysis going on but I simply don't believe you can have any conviction in a 0.1% move in an FX rate.

You are seriously doing >£100k bets here??
(Assuming minimum £10 a point on the FX.)

Utter madness.

Fair enough I just thought I'd detail my daily trades in this thread to give the OP a taste of what day trading can be like. I've spent a long time studying a range of fundamental & technical analysis and have settled on a technical strategy which currently I have some faith in. I also have a day job, this is not my job, I am NOT an expert or a city guy. I just like to trade in my down time during the day. Sometimes I go on News, for examples last weeks interest rate was good for 90 points in a short period.

I have gambled and flipped coins before and lost... Occasionally I still due, lack of discipline maybe or just for the hell of it but the core of my trades follow my strategy.

I'm not planning on adding any more trades I just wanted the OP to see how up and down it can be

[walm]

jonamv8 said:

Fair enough I just thought I'd detail my daily trades in this thread to give the OP a taste of what day trading can be like. I've spent a long time studying a range of fundamental & technical analysis and have settled on a technical strategy which currently I have some faith in. I also have a day job, this is not my job, I am NOT an expert or a city guy. I just like to trade in my down time during the day. Sometimes I go on News, for examples last weeks interest rate was good for 90 points in a short period.

I have gambled and flipped coins before and lost... Occasionally I still due, lack of discipline maybe or just for the hell of it but the core of my trades follow my strategy.

I'm not planning on adding any more trades I just wanted the OP to see how up and down it can be

That's very fair and all credit to you for putting them up.
As a fundamental/value investor I just struggle to believe in technicals very much!! No offense meant and best of luck with it!

[jonamv8]

walm said:

jonamv8 said:

Fair enough I just thought I'd detail my daily trades in this thread to give the OP a taste of what day trading can be like. I've spent a long time studying a range of fundamental & technical analysis and have settled on a technical strategy which currently I have some faith in. I also have a day job, this is not my job, I am NOT an expert or a city guy. I just like to trade in my down time during the day. Sometimes I go on News, for examples last weeks interest rate was good for 90 points in a short period.

I have gambled and flipped coins before and lost... Occasionally I still due, lack of discipline maybe or just for the hell of it but the core of my trades follow my strategy.

I'm not planning on adding any more trades I just wanted the OP to see how up and down it can be

That's very fair and all credit to you for putting them up.
As a fundamental/value investor I just struggle to believe in technicals very much!! No offense meant and best of luck with it!

None taken I think everyone has a trading style that they are comfortable with, doesn't mean someone else is wrong. I will still trade on certain fundamentals and where my value trader hat at times too. Swing Trading fascinates me though and keeps me engaged, I also find it's easier to measure strategy success on technicals rather than on fundamentals. I also wish you luck with your investments too mate. Hopefully the OP finds it interesting. We all start with little or no knowledge but being interested in the markets is the first step to getting involved - JUST DONT DO ANYTHING DAFT OP!!

[avinalarf]

I'm back,so to allow me to try and get my head around this subject with an example....
From what I can see the ratio of the profit that one can gain is very much less than one can lose and although a stop loss can be put in place it's really a "stop loss if I'm lucky ".

1) So if I bet on the FTSE movement and place £10 a point what do I get back if it gains 10 points.
2) And if it loses 10 points what is my actual loss ,assuming that I put on a 10 point stop loss ( that actually stops the loss at minus 10 points .
3) Is my suggesting a 10 point stop loss a sensible strategy ,if not, what is ?
4) You are saying that a stop loss is not guaranteed to do that, why ?
5) In that case is my loss unquantifiable ? ( If so....I'm outa here )
6) Am I asking the right questions ?

[jonamv8]

avinalarf said:

I'm back,so to allow me to try and get my head around this subject with an example....
From what I can see the ratio of the profit that one can gain is very much less than one can lose and although a stop loss can be put in place it's really a "stop loss if I'm lucky ".

1) So if I bet on the FTSE movement and place £10 a point what do I get back if it gains 10 points.
2) And if it loses 10 points what is my actual loss ,assuming that I put on a 10 point stop loss ( that actually stops the loss at minus 10 points .
3) Is my suggesting a 10 point stop loss a sensible strategy ,if not, what is ?
4) You are saying that a stop loss is not guaranteed to do that, why ?
5) In that case is my loss unquantifiable ? ( If so....I'm outa here )
6) Am I asking the right questions ?

1. £10 minus the spread, normally 1 point on ftse so £9
2. £10
3. 10 point stop better than nothing. Probably too small on a volatile stock, indice or commodity tho. Stop losses can be debated all day
4. If market tanks or jumps hugely you may get smippage on your stop loss. Doesnt nornally concern me too much and i wouldnt pay extra to guarentee mine each time, under special circumstances maybe
5. You may get 10/15% slippage on very rare occasions I've not experienced higher.
6. Yeah everyone got to start sonewhere.

I suggest a demo account to learn the basic then quickly move to real money as it adds emotions into it but just keep stakes to minimum until you are consistently winning

[avinalarf]

jonamv8 said:

avinalarf said:

I'm back,so to allow me to try and get my head around this subject with an example....
From what I can see the ratio of the profit that one can gain is very much less than one can lose and although a stop loss can be put in place it's really a "stop loss if I'm lucky ".

1) So if I bet on the FTSE movement and place £10 a point what do I get back if it gains 10 points.
2) And if it loses 10 points what is my actual loss ,assuming that I put on a 10 point stop loss ( that actually stops the loss at minus 10 points .
3) Is my suggesting a 10 point stop loss a sensible strategy ,if not, what is ?
4) You are saying that a stop loss is not guaranteed to do that, why ?
5) In that case is my loss unquantifiable ? ( If so....I'm outa here )
6) Am I asking the right questions ?

1. £10 minus the spread, normally 1 point on ftse so £9
2. £10
3. 10 point stop better than nothing. Probably too small on a volatile stock, indice or commodity tho. Stop losses can be debated all day
4. If market tanks or jumps hugely you may get smippage on your stop loss. Doesnt nornally concern me too much and i wouldnt pay extra to guarentee mine each time, under special circumstances maybe
5. You may get 10/15% slippage on very rare occasions I've not experienced higher.
6. Yeah everyone got to start sonewhere.

I suggest a demo account to learn the basic then quickly move to real money as it adds emotions into it but just keep stakes to minimum until you are consistently winning

Thanks ,I understand all that.

[sidicks]

IMO you might just as well go to an on-line casino - it's effectively gambling / guesswork, rather than based on fundamentally research / knowledge, up against people who are far better researched and resourced than you.

[walm]

jonamv8 said:

avinalarf said:

I'm back,so to allow me to try and get my head around this subject with an example....
From what I can see the ratio of the profit that one can gain is very much less than one can lose and although a stop loss can be put in place it's really a "stop loss if I'm lucky ".

1) So if I bet on the FTSE movement and place £10 a point what do I get back if it gains 10 points.
2) And if it loses 10 points what is my actual loss ,assuming that I put on a 10 point stop loss ( that actually stops the loss at minus 10 points .
3) Is my suggesting a 10 point stop loss a sensible strategy ,if not, what is ?
4) You are saying that a stop loss is not guaranteed to do that, why ?
5) In that case is my loss unquantifiable ? ( If so....I'm outa here )
6) Am I asking the right questions ?

1. £10 minus the spread, normally 1 point on ftse so £9
2. £10
3. 10 point stop better than nothing. Probably too small on a volatile stock, indice or commodity tho. Stop losses can be debated all day
4. If market tanks or jumps hugely you may get smippage on your stop loss. Doesnt nornally concern me too much and i wouldnt pay extra to guarentee mine each time, under special circumstances maybe
5. You may get 10/15% slippage on very rare occasions I've not experienced higher.
6. Yeah everyone got to start sonewhere.

I suggest a demo account to learn the basic then quickly move to real money as it adds emotions into it but just keep stakes to minimum until you are consistently winning

Just a slight clarification:
Firstly the gains are very similar to the risk.
Arguably with a short you can lose an infinite amount of money but in a couple of decades I have only seen a handful of >100% instant spikes in anything (Mattress Firm anyone?).

Then...
1. £90
2. -£100
3. Agreed - depends on the volatility and the time horizon of the trade.
4. It's usually more of a problem if you hold while the market is closed. Imagine holding the FTSE 250 overnight on 23rd June this year. When it opened is was massively down. There wasn't an orderly procession of trades down - it just gapped down. There simply wasn't ANY trades done in that gap.
5. Assuming you mean 10-15% OF THE STOP slippage not 10-15% OF THE TRADE!! (e.g. a 10% drop on the FTSE would be nearly 700 points!
6. All good.

[jonamv8]

walm said:

Just a slight clarification:
Firstly the gains are very similar to the risk.
Arguably with a short you can lose an infinite amount of money but in a couple of decades I have only seen a handful of >100% instant spikes in anything (Mattress Firm anyone?).

Then...
1. £90
2. -£100
3. Agreed - depends on the volatility and the time horizon of the trade.
4. It's usually more of a problem if you hold while the market is closed. Imagine holding the FTSE 250 overnight on 23rd June this year. When it opened is was massively down. There wasn't an orderly procession of trades down - it just gapped down. There simply wasn't ANY trades done in that gap.
5. Assuming you mean 10-15% OF THE STOP slippage not 10-15% OF THE TRADE!! (e.g. a 10% drop on the FTSE would be nearly 700 points!
6. All good.

Cheers Walm I think I was half asleep writing that on an iPhone looking back :-)

[R11ysf]

avinalarf said:

I'm back,so to allow me to try and get my head around this subject with an example....
From what I can see the ratio of the profit that one can gain is very much less than one can lose and although a stop loss can be put in place it's really a "stop loss if I'm lucky ".

1) So if I bet on the FTSE movement and place £10 a point what do I get back if it gains 10 points.
2) And if it loses 10 points what is my actual loss ,assuming that I put on a 10 point stop loss ( that actually stops the loss at minus 10 points .
3) Is my suggesting a 10 point stop loss a sensible strategy ,if not, what is ?
4) You are saying that a stop loss is not guaranteed to do that, why ?
5) In that case is my loss unquantifiable ? ( If so....I'm outa here )
6) Am I asking the right questions ?

Just to clarify point 5.
You stop loss can only do what the market allows and needs to be open. So if for example you went long the DAX before Brexit and held it overnight your stop loss would have been irrelevant. It opened down 1,000 points and at £10 a point you would have been down 10k. That is an extreme example but just giving you the full range of what is possible.

[walm]

R11ysf said:

Just to clarify point 5.
You stop loss can only do what the market allows and needs to be open. So if for example you went long the DAX before Brexit and held it overnight your stop loss would have been irrelevant. It opened down 1,000 points and at £10 a point you would have been down 10k. That is an extreme example but just giving you the full range of what is possible.

Exactly!

[avinalarf]

You have all been so very generous in your advise ,thank you.
To let you know how I'm going to proceed with trading generally.
I've got a few days off in September so I'll take a couple of relevant books on trading with me to further my education.
Any suggestions ?
Trading for Dummies....springs to mind.
I am far from convinced that day trading suits my tempremant,and Walm's and sidicks comments both resonate with my feelings on the subject ,no disrespect for those of you that do day trade.
This morning at 07.30 I placed a "kill or fill " order on for shares on a company I fancy.
It was not fulfilled ,fortunately,as the share as gone down,but I was going to hold it long term so I'll see how it goes.

[walm]

avinalarf said:

This morning at 07.30 I placed a "kill or fill " order on for shares on a company I fancy.
It was not fulfilled ,fortunately,as the share as gone down,but I was going to hold it long term so I'll see how it goes.

Jesus - how big was the order!?

I would think it rare for that not to fill in a dropping stock!

Best of luck.

[walm]

contango said:

The only thing I am buying here is Vix and other vol products.

Out of interest - how do you buy the vix?