Where is the FTSE going?
Discussion
z4RRSchris said:
my question is because i'm thinking of shorting the index, i think pound is bottomed out and 7300/7400 is toppy
the onlly hesistation is if trump massively lowers taxes we could see a banking/Fs led rise in the index.
I myself am cautious at present as the speed of current rises have me very concerned with regard to sustainability.the onlly hesistation is if trump massively lowers taxes we could see a banking/Fs led rise in the index.
But to short the market if you are not an hourly player maybe very risky.
The banks/finance have already risen, I went overweight B/F in September and cut back a little in mid-December.
Soros shorted the market and lost a reported Billion, or was it a Trillion, numbers that size are beyond my comprehension
Trump lowering of Corp Tax; In someways Corp Tax is almost optional
A corp can, within limits, decide how much profit it makes (I did pay Corp tax) and I think that may be fully priced in. However, a further Yellen rate increase might re- energise the banks/Finance because it would improve their int rate spreads therefore improve profitability.And of course if UK has inflation, it's already moving up a little, Carne may also have to raise rates, making your banks more attractive.
To sum up. Shorting a fast moving scenario with so many moving parts could be tragic, unless of course you are just shorting to protect your current profits.
I do understand your reasoning, I am 25% cash for similar reasons (and sometimes wish I wasn't
) I'm up 4% YTD, so I've missed out on some gain holding that cash.But I sleep well.
For me to short the FTSE with my hard earned money would take a Russian sub stuck in the silt under Barnes bridge.
55palfers said:
I have some USD dividend cheques.
They have 3 months to run before they must be cashed.
Now or wait?
The next US Federal Reserve meeting is 15th of March, and if they raise interest rates it's likely that the USD will go up some. The MPC has a meeting on 16th of March, and while it's very unlikely that the Bank of England will raise rates that's when it'd happen. So I think the opportune moment would be straight after the US announcement, and before the UK announcement. They have 3 months to run before they must be cashed.
Now or wait?
It is going up.
This is the past 70 years since World War 2 for the FTSE All Share.
This is a fantastic read. Some data going back 320 years.
http://stockmarketalmanac.co.uk/category/long-term...
This is the past 70 years since World War 2 for the FTSE All Share.
This is a fantastic read. Some data going back 320 years.
http://stockmarketalmanac.co.uk/category/long-term...
It is going down.
It is the Chinese Year of the Rooster in 2017.
Previous Rooster years have averaged -4% annual returns in the past 67 years.
http://stockmarketalmanac.co.uk/2017/01/chinese-ne...
It is the Chinese Year of the Rooster in 2017.
Previous Rooster years have averaged -4% annual returns in the past 67 years.
http://stockmarketalmanac.co.uk/2017/01/chinese-ne...
Yipper said:
It is going up.
This is the past 70 years since World War 2 for the FTSE All Share.
This is a fantastic read. Some data going back 320 years.
http://stockmarketalmanac.co.uk/category/long-term...
That's the All share....and is indeed impressive.This is the past 70 years since World War 2 for the FTSE All Share.
This is a fantastic read. Some data going back 320 years.
http://stockmarketalmanac.co.uk/category/long-term...
I'd like to see a graph plotting the FTSE 100 against the Mars Bar.
NickCQ said:
Totally agree re the Brexit uncertainty.
But I think you can't discount the extent to which unprecedented QE/ asset purchases by central banks in the U.K., US and Eurozone have massively inflated asset prices and distorted the pricing of risk in capital markets.
And as you say yourself, exchange rates are hugely important for a relatively small, open country like the U.K. And as far as I am concerned, differences in interest rates and inflation between countries (i.e. Monetary policy) is a very important determinant of exchange rates.
So if the federal reserve keeps raising rates and at some point the ECB stops asset purchases, we should expect significant falls in global asset prices due to rising interest rates.
As far as the FTSE is concerned Brexit is pretty irrelevant. It’s 100 companies who mostly make their revenues outside of the U.K. and just chose to be based in London because of the schooling, shopping, sports, clubs, restaurants versus the fact that Paris smells, the French are racist pricks and Frankfurt is as boring as Zurich unless you have a sexual percersion. But I think you can't discount the extent to which unprecedented QE/ asset purchases by central banks in the U.K., US and Eurozone have massively inflated asset prices and distorted the pricing of risk in capital markets.
And as you say yourself, exchange rates are hugely important for a relatively small, open country like the U.K. And as far as I am concerned, differences in interest rates and inflation between countries (i.e. Monetary policy) is a very important determinant of exchange rates.
So if the federal reserve keeps raising rates and at some point the ECB stops asset purchases, we should expect significant falls in global asset prices due to rising interest rates.
The key here and now is the unwinding of a decade of QE and secret inflation. The figure bandied about is that just 10% of the growth in US equates to real growth!! So if global equities have been driven up over the last decade by cheap and lax debt, share buybacks and corporate bond purchases by central banks and if all three of those have pretty much come to an end then the market is right to ask where is equity growth going to come from going forward?
And don’t forget that US QE has been over $4tn? So that also means that stock prices haven’t been rising but rather the value of the currency it’s measured against has been falling.
End of cheap debt. End of currency debasement. Rise of the zombie company. There are thousands upon thousands of companies out there who don’t have enough revenue to pay down debt, just enough to service it. Every single one of them faces extinction.
supercommuter said:
My HL ISA looks terrible this morning. Down 8 percent on a full ISA..I have a variation of funds and stocks in there which were averaging 8 percent up this year. I had not checked in ages...I am wondering if i should sell or hold and hope 
Panic selling is nearly always the wrong move. The market is up 2% today, and who knows where it will be in 6 months time? If you aren't comfortbale with the risks of investing, you should probaly just stick with cash. CaptainSensib1e said:
supercommuter said:
My HL ISA looks terrible this morning. Down 8 percent on a full ISA..I have a variation of funds and stocks in there which were averaging 8 percent up this year. I had not checked in ages...I am wondering if i should sell or hold and hope
Panic selling is nearly always the wrong move. The market is up 2% today, and who knows where it will be in 6 months time? If you aren't comfortbale with the risks of investing, you should probaly just stick with cash. Just annoying to see £1600 down when doing my checks before pay day!
supercommuter said:
CaptainSensib1e said:
supercommuter said:
My HL ISA looks terrible this morning. Down 8 percent on a full ISA..I have a variation of funds and stocks in there which were averaging 8 percent up this year. I had not checked in ages...I am wondering if i should sell or hold and hope
Panic selling is nearly always the wrong move. The market is up 2% today, and who knows where it will be in 6 months time? If you aren't comfortbale with the risks of investing, you should probaly just stick with cash. Just annoying to see £1600 down when doing my checks before pay day!
CaptainSensib1e said:
supercommuter said:
CaptainSensib1e said:
supercommuter said:
My HL ISA looks terrible this morning. Down 8 percent on a full ISA..I have a variation of funds and stocks in there which were averaging 8 percent up this year. I had not checked in ages...I am wondering if i should sell or hold and hope
Panic selling is nearly always the wrong move. The market is up 2% today, and who knows where it will be in 6 months time? If you aren't comfortbale with the risks of investing, you should probaly just stick with cash. Just annoying to see £1600 down when doing my checks before pay day!
So glad i did!
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