Where is the FTSE going?
Discussion
Well, it might be one of those years to, "Sell in May and go away".
"Sell in May and go away is a well-known trading adage that warns investors to sell their stock holdings in May to avoid a seasonal decline in equity markets. If a trader follows the sell-in-May-and-go-away strategy, the trader sells stock holdings in May and invests again in the equity market in November to avoid the typically volatile May to October period. Some investors find this strategy more rewarding than staying in the equity markets throughout the year." - Investopedia
And then you need to be back in the market time for a Santa Rally,
"A santa claus rally is a surge in the price of stocks that often occurs in the last week of December through the first two trading days in January. There are numerous explanations for the Santa Claus Rally phenomenon, including tax considerations, happiness around Wall Street, people investing their Christmas bonuses and the fact that the pessimists are usually on vacation this week. " - Investopedia
Or not.
"Sell in May and go away is a well-known trading adage that warns investors to sell their stock holdings in May to avoid a seasonal decline in equity markets. If a trader follows the sell-in-May-and-go-away strategy, the trader sells stock holdings in May and invests again in the equity market in November to avoid the typically volatile May to October period. Some investors find this strategy more rewarding than staying in the equity markets throughout the year." - Investopedia
And then you need to be back in the market time for a Santa Rally,
"A santa claus rally is a surge in the price of stocks that often occurs in the last week of December through the first two trading days in January. There are numerous explanations for the Santa Claus Rally phenomenon, including tax considerations, happiness around Wall Street, people investing their Christmas bonuses and the fact that the pessimists are usually on vacation this week. " - Investopedia
Or not.
Interesting viewpoint here: https://digitaledition.telegraph.co.uk/editions/ed...
Ari said:
Interesting viewpoint here: https://digitaledition.telegraph.co.uk/editions/ed...
It’s total bulls
t. 
Scripted to give old people a boner. A load of Brexit propaganda. I’m not a remainer but the Telegraph has become total junk on its insane Brexit tripe90 of the constituents of the index are pretty much irrelevant for starters. Many constituents can move as much as they like and have no effect on the index calculation.
http://i.ppstatic.com/content/trader/reports/ftse-...
In reality the index is controlled by fewer than a dozen stocks. It used to be just 7 for years, 2 oils, 2 pharmas, 3 banks and a telco. Today, they are still there but have been diluted and joined by a couple of mining companies and an agri.
If we look at those companies it is pretty clear that little of their revenues are derived from U.K. PLC.
Which of these companies derive any meaningful percentage of their business from the U.K. domestic market?:
1 HSBC
2 Royal Dutch Shell
3 BP
4 Vodafone
5 GlaxoSmithKline
6 AstraZeneca
7 Barclays
8 British American Tobacco
9 Rio Tinto
10 BHP Billiton
The answer is none of them. They benefit or lose more from GBP fluctuations than they do from the spending habits of the U.K. population.
I lurk on a few forums around investing as I try and learn and something that strikes me (happy to be corrected) is that it appears many UK investors see those sort of companies as either "all about the dividends" so it's essentially their pension fund, or they play the markets and hope to cut and slice and make money.
Point being I'm not sure I'd put money in any of those if my intention was to simply leave it there and grow the pot?
Point being I'm not sure I'd put money in any of those if my intention was to simply leave it there and grow the pot?
bhstewie said:
hstewie said: I lurk on a few forums around investing as I try and learn and something that strikes me (happy to be corrected) is that it appears many UK investors see those sort of companies as either "all about the dividends" so it's essentially their pension fund, or they play the markets and hope to cut and slice and make money.
Point being I'm not sure I'd put money in any of those if my intention was to simply leave it there and grow the pot?
If you reinvested the dividends then you could do ok in Shell long term I would have thought.Point being I'm not sure I'd put money in any of those if my intention was to simply leave it there and grow the pot?
bhstewie said:
hstewie said: I lurk on a few forums around investing as I try and learn and something that strikes me (happy to be corrected) is that it appears many UK investors see those sort of companies as either "all about the dividends" so it's essentially their pension fund, or they play the markets and hope to cut and slice and make money.
Point being I'm not sure I'd put money in any of those if my intention was to simply leave it there and grow the pot?
The thing is that if you buy a ftse tracker then you are, to all intents and purposes, buying a weighted holding of those top ten stocks. The rest is really just chaff. The same 7 have been at the top of the weightings chart for around 25 years or so in their various forms. Point being I'm not sure I'd put money in any of those if my intention was to simply leave it there and grow the pot?
The sector weightings of the ftse have changed a bit but I imagine the big shift has been in the last decade as banks heavily declined in market cap and the global mining firms began listing in the U.K. etc. Mining used to just be Rios and BHP but have been joined by Glencore and I think Antofagasta along with others.
It’s probably cheaper to buy a ftse etf though than to try and buy those 7/10 stocks independently but you could do so and then play around with the weightings based on a personal view of what lies ahead.
I suspect that most U.K. investors do view their investments from a pension perspective as few people would have the wealth or income to have any excess funds after paying home costs, taxes and pension contribution.
rockin said:
Is everyone enjoying the FTSE 100 rollercoaster ride?
7,778 in January 2018
6,888 in March 2018
7,770 in May
A full 12% drop followed by recovery in a couple of months, ranking amongst the fastest big stock market swings of all time.
Ha - I piled my ISA allowance into some funds and good dividend stocks at the end of the financial year and have done pretty well. I just assumed I had finally become some sort of investing god but you've rather undone that for me...!7,778 in January 2018
6,888 in March 2018
7,770 in May
A full 12% drop followed by recovery in a couple of months, ranking amongst the fastest big stock market swings of all time.
DonkeyApple said:
America and China are lobbing handbags at each other and for no related reason Italy has shat it’s pants.
Hahahahahaha! That comment! Pretty much everything is red my end this week apart from a few ropey AIM gambles which are all about 20% up this week. Who knew.... eurgh. Could be worse I guess, could have gone for the Aston float @ £19 a pop and eaten a proper dogsh sarnie!
I'm not selling anything, going down the Winchester and waiting for it to all blow over....
Edited by Cardinal Hips on Wednesday 10th October 15:17
Topped up some of my funds this morning with my monthly amount, I'm not getting any shares at the minute, just investing in funds as much as possible - I always seem to pick the shares that continue down!
Plus if everything keeps on going down - I will just keep buying, it will go down at some point, it will also go up - while its hard loosing £100 a day - have to think long term (or long term enough for me to take the plunge on a amg!
Plus if everything keeps on going down - I will just keep buying, it will go down at some point, it will also go up - while its hard loosing £100 a day - have to think long term (or long term enough for me to take the plunge on a amg!
I bailed out on 20th July: https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&... when FTSE was at 7748.
Beginning to look like a buying opportunity, but the scale of the losses in US and Asia yesterday means that I think some panic selling will start driving down prices further. The Italian skidmark could keep hitting the Euro markets further if people actually take a good hard look at their economy and debt.
So I'll be biding my time a bit longer as I think things will go a bit lower yet. I know time in the markets vs timing the markets, but I've ducked a 10% loss across the portfolio already - as noted above there have been 12% swings in a 6 month period already this year so if you do get lucky with the timing there are gains to be had.
Beginning to look like a buying opportunity, but the scale of the losses in US and Asia yesterday means that I think some panic selling will start driving down prices further. The Italian skidmark could keep hitting the Euro markets further if people actually take a good hard look at their economy and debt.
So I'll be biding my time a bit longer as I think things will go a bit lower yet. I know time in the markets vs timing the markets, but I've ducked a 10% loss across the portfolio already - as noted above there have been 12% swings in a 6 month period already this year so if you do get lucky with the timing there are gains to be had.
PhilboSE said:
I bailed out on 20th July: https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&... when FTSE was at 7748.
Beginning to look like a buying opportunity, but the scale of the losses in US and Asia yesterday means that I think some panic selling will start driving down prices further. The Italian skidmark could keep hitting the Euro markets further if people actually take a good hard look at their economy and debt.
So I'll be biding my time a bit longer as I think things will go a bit lower yet. I know time in the markets vs timing the markets, but I've ducked a 10% loss across the portfolio already - as noted above there have been 12% swings in a 6 month period already this year so if you do get lucky with the timing there are gains to be had.
You may recall I was the first respondent to your previous thread and I agreed with your views and bailed. A mixture of lack of confidence and the new margin rules prevented me from adding a short spreadbet against the market which would have been nice. Beginning to look like a buying opportunity, but the scale of the losses in US and Asia yesterday means that I think some panic selling will start driving down prices further. The Italian skidmark could keep hitting the Euro markets further if people actually take a good hard look at their economy and debt.
So I'll be biding my time a bit longer as I think things will go a bit lower yet. I know time in the markets vs timing the markets, but I've ducked a 10% loss across the portfolio already - as noted above there have been 12% swings in a 6 month period already this year so if you do get lucky with the timing there are gains to be had.
I certainly don't share the view that this represents a buying opportunity though. Personally I think this is only the start..but then I am a pessimistic bstard.
supercommuter said:
Jambo85 said:
My portfolio has taken a beating this week. Cracks starting to show or a buying opportunity!?
Mine is getting nailed as well. Oh well. It isn't a real loss until i sell...etc etcUS bond yields need to settle down really. Equities don’t like sudden movements nor do they like the climbing yields as higher yields in bonds make bonds more competitive against equity yields and at the same time over leveraged businesses start to see their debt servicing costs eating into any profits.
Probably the main question now is whether bond yields calm down soon enough for there to be a Santa Rally.
Probably the main question now is whether bond yields calm down soon enough for there to be a Santa Rally.
BoRED S2upid said:
supercommuter said:
Jambo85 said:
My portfolio has taken a beating this week. Cracks starting to show or a buying opportunity!?
Mine is getting nailed as well. Oh well. It isn't a real loss until i sell...etc etcGassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff