When crypto crashes, will the 'normal' markets suffer?
Discussion
Dunno about futures. Beyond that I'll go for nothing. It's mainly nobodies throwing money in. The volumes really aren't big. It's retail level stuff with virtually no professional investment at all.
The prices look enormous because there are hardly any coins available. Trading is unregulated so there's masses of wash trading. Market cap is a junk metric when it comes to crypto. It means nothing.
There might be 16 or so million bitcoins in existence. Only a few tens of thousands traded set the price.
The prices look enormous because there are hardly any coins available. Trading is unregulated so there's masses of wash trading. Market cap is a junk metric when it comes to crypto. It means nothing.
There might be 16 or so million bitcoins in existence. Only a few tens of thousands traded set the price.
bloomen said:
Dunno about futures. Beyond that I'll go for nothing. It's mainly nobodies throwing money in. The volumes really aren't big. It's retail level stuff with virtually no professional investment at all.
The prices look enormous because there are hardly any coins available. Trading is unregulated so there's masses of wash trading. Market cap is a junk metric when it comes to crypto. It means nothing.
There might be 16 or so million bitcoins in existence. Only a few tens of thousands traded set the price.
The trade volumes have been outstripping many traditional exchanges for a while now. If nearly $30 Billion daily is not much volume, perhaps you could confirm what is?The prices look enormous because there are hardly any coins available. Trading is unregulated so there's masses of wash trading. Market cap is a junk metric when it comes to crypto. It means nothing.
There might be 16 or so million bitcoins in existence. Only a few tens of thousands traded set the price.
I don't actually think an impending BTC crash is a systemic threat to the markets right now. I think the bigger threat though is how big the BTC or next iterations of cryptocurrency can become. The concept has the power to really disrupt traditional markets, and in particular how governments interact with them. In 10 years time.. when it's all a lot more established.. that's probably where we start to realise the risks!
cashmax said:
The trade volumes have been outstripping many traditional exchanges for a while now. If nearly $30 Billion daily is not much volume, perhaps you could confirm what is?
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#mark...Highest volume is Bitfinex which isn't even trading real dollars. Second highest is Korean which is low to zero fee which means the same coin can be batted back and forth millions of times an hour at virtually no cost. So that several hundred million in volume might not consist of any new money at all.
Many other top ten options are BTC vs an alt which means inflated and non existent market cap vs another one exchanging money that rarely leaves those exchanges.
None of these exchanges have any overlap with other markets. Most of their volume will be under the control of Bitcoin whales who paid peanuts for their coins a few years ago.
It's primarily one giant mirage and feedback loop.
If someone tried to extract 1 billion actual dollars from the crypto market in one day certain coins would go to zero and the biggies would probably go down by 90% or more.
That's why there'll be no effect on normal markets. Also the crypto market is truly global and 24/7. A catastrophic collapse would be felt across the world and also spread across the world.
Edited by bloomen on Thursday 14th December 14:26
NickCQ said:
The danger could come if futures contracts blow up a clearing house that also clears non-BTC derivatives.
Literally Zero chance of that happening. They are setting a 35% overnight margin and they also have and have had products with considerably higher volatility and risk profiles than Bitcoin on their books for a long time without risking their core business. Writing huge out of the money options has a higher blow up risk than BTC.otherman said:
JB! said:
Economic slump as people who have been chucking money into it lose the lot?
For every 1000 losers there's a winner.I like this quote from Sir Isaac Newton
“I could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies,” he said, “but not the madness of the people.”
He personally lost $4 million (in today's money) on the South China Sea share collapse.
Edited by bongtom on Friday 15th December 04:48
bongtom said:
I like this quote from Sir Isaac Newton
“I could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies,” he said, “but not the madness of the people.”
He personally lost $4 million (in today's money) on the South China Sea share collapse.
Newton also led the move to sound assayed money when he took charge of the Royal Mint. Doctored, clipped & fake coins reached crisis point & he took over when a recoinage exercise was about to collapse because of fraud. He did it properly through chemical & mathematical analysis. He saved the Royal Mint & secured the long term viability of the UK's coinage supply. If he were alive today, Newton would embrace the concept of a mathematically backed currency immediately.“I could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies,” he said, “but not the madness of the people.”
He personally lost $4 million (in today's money) on the South China Sea share collapse.
Jimboka said:
I dabbled a little over 2 weeks ago, BIT-XBTE
60% up in that time.
Have now sold my original stake so ‘free’ gamble now
Doesn’t matter if it crashes but equally could carry on up.
Bearing in mind the financial experts said to sell at $3000 back in July & now $18000 ..
Which financial experts said that, and what was their argument?60% up in that time.
Have now sold my original stake so ‘free’ gamble now
Doesn’t matter if it crashes but equally could carry on up.
Bearing in mind the financial experts said to sell at $3000 back in July & now $18000 ..
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