When crypto crashes, will the 'normal' markets suffer?

[bloomen]

James_B said:

That’s a bank. Do you have a quote of them telling people to sell?

I don't recall any attempt to persuade anyone to do anything. All they were doing was providing price forecasts.

[bongtom]

Behemoth said:

bongtom said:

I like this quote from Sir Isaac Newton
“I could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies,” he said, “but not the madness of the people.”

He personally lost $4 million (in today's money) on the South China Sea share collapse.

Newton also led the move to sound assayed money when he took charge of the Royal Mint. Doctored, clipped & fake coins reached crisis point & he took over when a recoinage exercise was about to collapse because of fraud. He did it properly through chemical & mathematical analysis. He saved the Royal Mint & secured the long term viability of the UK's coinage supply. If he were alive today, Newton would embrace the concept of a mathematically backed currency immediately.

Nobody knows for sure if he would as it’s an impossible mathematical concept which if he were alive today would tell us so!

This thread is about what would happen to the “normal” markets if and when the crypto market crashes.

No one is criticising the block chain tech and most observers believe its here to stay. Change the record buddy.

[Behemoth]

bongtom said:

Nobody knows for sure if he would as it’s an impossible mathematical concept which if he were alive today would tell us so!

This thread is about what would happen to the “normal” markets if and when the crypto market crashes.

Umm, Isaac Newton wrote Principia Mathematica and was one of the founders of calculus + extremely interested in the concept and science of money. He'd be in there, no doubt about that at all. Sorry to sidetrack this crash impact thread, but he's one of my personal heros & I thought the factlet was relevant & interesting since you brought his name up

[NickCQ]

Behemoth said:

Umm, Isaac Newton wrote Principia Mathematica and was one of the founders of calculus + extremely interested in the concept and science of money. He'd be in there, no doubt about that at all. Sorry to sidetrack this crash impact thread, but he's one of my personal heros & I thought the factlet was relevant & interesting since you brought his name up

He also got into alchemy in the later years - turning base metals into Gold (altcoins anyone?)

[BobToc]

R11ysf said:

Literally Zero chance of that happening. They are setting a 35% overnight margin and they also have and have had products with considerably higher volatility and risk profiles than Bitcoin on their books for a long time without risking their core business. Writing huge out of the money options has a higher blow up risk than BTC.

So not “literally zero chance” then.

[Behemoth]

NickCQ said:

He also got into alchemy in the later years - turning base metals into Gold (altcoins anyone?)

Peter Ackroyd's Newton Great Lives is a brilliant read. Not sure if it's in print still. It was his realisation after alchemy (chemistry & physics, really) that gold is immutable that led him to monetary matters & taking on the Mint.

[Jonesy23]

Would the markets suffer? Not really, not enough invested (and not by anyone who really matters), and no one would be shocked by it all going pop.

It could kick the crap out of some people and severely damage the entire coin 'industry' but outside that it would be news for a day or two and forgotten.

And last time values hard dropped the wider world didn't notice anything except for a reduction in coin hype articles.

[bongtom]

Behemoth said:

Umm, Isaac Newton wrote Principia Mathematica and was one of the founders of calculus + extremely interested in the concept and science of money. He'd be in there, no doubt about that at all. Sorry to sidetrack this crash impact thread, but he's one of my personal heros & I thought the factlet was relevant & interesting since you brought his name up

[NRS]

bongtom said:

Behemoth said:

Umm, Isaac Newton wrote Principia Mathematica and was one of the founders of calculus + extremely interested in the concept and science of money. He'd be in there, no doubt about that at all. Sorry to sidetrack this crash impact thread, but he's one of my personal heros & I thought the factlet was relevant & interesting since you brought his name up

Given the South Sea point it may well be true that he'd be in a bubble. Or perhaps he'd have learned a lesson after that incident and have been out of BTC now. Even if he believed the stuff behind it.

[x5x3]

given that the traditional stock markets are all at or near ATHs - what are people's thoughts on the impact of a stock market crash on the crypto world?

[bloomen]

x5x3 said:

given that the traditional stock markets are all at or near ATHs - what are people's thoughts on the impact of a stock market crash on the crypto world?

This is by far the more interesting question. In most portfolios crypto must surely be the most disposable thing for most people. It's an extreme bet. If your net worth looks like it's going down the toilet it'll probably be the first thing to go despite everyone telling themselves they're in a market lifeboat.

[R11ysf]

BobToc said:

R11ysf said:

Literally Zero chance of that happening. They are setting a 35% overnight margin and they also have and have had products with considerably higher volatility and risk profiles than Bitcoin on their books for a long time without risking their core business. Writing huge out of the money options has a higher blow up risk than BTC.

So not “literally zero chance” then.

Not sure what you mean. The exchanges have existed for 120 years and traded numerous and far more volatile products through the Wall street crash, 2 world wars and the financial crisis and are still here. So one small product taking down a clearing house (traded 340 contract on opening day - ooh wow!) is literally no chance. The protections are too great to let a tiny, pointless product like this take down an entire exchange.

Unless you know different of course?

[Behemoth]

bloomen said:

This is by far the more interesting question. In most portfolios crypto must surely be the most disposable thing for most people. It's an extreme bet. If your net worth looks like it's going down the toilet it'll probably be the first thing to go despite everyone telling themselves they're in a market lifeboat.

otoh, don't stock market crashes usually result in a flight to gold?...

[bloomen]

Yes, but anyone who believes the average buyer believes crypto is the new gold is too far down the rabbit hole. It's a decade or two away and it would still be a minority. The majority now would probably run screaming.

[Behemoth]

bloomen said:

The majority now would probably run screaming.

If/when the next stock mkt crash is (disingenuously) blamed on Bitcoin, you're probably right