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twinturboz said:
Just browsing over a few things, the Usd should it continue to rally is of obvious concern coupled with what the inflation expectations have done the last few days. Noticing copper and steel stocks rolling over but does anyone have a view with what's going on with libor rates?
Are you asking why US Libor has risen so sharply? If so, the answer appears to lie in changes to the regulation of US Money Market funds, principally the move to a floating NAV later this year. Here's an explanation: https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/investors/article...Edited by twinturboz on Saturday 13th August 17:08
Whilst this explanation fits, I am not entirely convinced that it is the only factor at work, nor that it is a temporary phenomenon as the linked article suggests.
One to watch with a critical eye, as alternative explanations are potentially uncomfortable for both equity and credit markets.
iantr said:
Are you asking why US Libor has risen so sharply? If so, the answer appears to lie in changes to the regulation of US Money Market funds, principally the move to a floating NAV later this year. Here's an explanation: https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/investors/article...
Whilst this explanation fits, I am not entirely convinced that it is the only factor at work, nor that it is a temporary phenomenon as the linked article suggests.
One to watch with a critical eye, as alternative explanations are potentially uncomfortable for both equity and credit markets.
I echo the same sentiment, could be nothing but coupled with a few things I wonder if deflation is about to rear it's head. The question is the spike because of the new rules or because of what the new rules may cause.Whilst this explanation fits, I am not entirely convinced that it is the only factor at work, nor that it is a temporary phenomenon as the linked article suggests.
One to watch with a critical eye, as alternative explanations are potentially uncomfortable for both equity and credit markets.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/08/12/2172753/more...
Edited by twinturboz on Sunday 14th August 11:22
twinturboz said:
The question is the spike because of the new rules or because of what the new rules may cause.
Or is it (even partially) indicative of stress somewhere in the interbank market? Historically it has been something of a canary in the coal mine. Edited by twinturboz on Sunday 14th August 11:22
twinturboz said:
I echo the same sentiment, could be nothing but coupled with a few things I wonder if deflation is about to rear it's head.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/08/12/2172753/more...
What's your opinion on this .....http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/08/12/2172753/more...
Elliot says that the constant meddling in the economy by governments,the BoE,IMF,ECB,has exacerbated the problems in the economy.
Financial markets are out of balance,debt levels worse now than 2007.
Credit growth peaked in 2008,with consequent effects.
Times of cheap debt are ending,no cheap loans,cash is king.
If you agree on this analysis does it mean we are in or entertering a bear market ?
Does it mean that the less sophisticated trader should cash in his shares ?
If so where should he put his money ?
Sorry chaps..you can bet your dollar that as soon as I enter the market the bloody share prices will fall.
Edited by avinalarf on Sunday 14th August 13:45
Edited by avinalarf on Sunday 14th August 13:47
avinalarf said:
What's your opinion on this .....
Elliot says that the constant meddling in the economy by governments,the BoE,IMF,ECB,has exacerbated the problems in the economy.
Financial markets are out of balance,debt levels worse now than 2007.
Credit growth peaked in 2008,with consequent effects.
Times of cheap debt are ending,no cheap loans,cash is king.
If you agree on this analysis does it mean we are in or entertering a bear market ?
Does it mean that the less sophisticated trader should cash in his shares ?
If so where should he put his money ?
Sorry chaps..you can bet your dollar that as soon as I enter the market the bloody share prices will fall.
Whilst I like to take an interest and see if I can forecast what happens next it doesn't really affect my day to day strategy. Ultimately for me if any of the above are going to be factors it will be reflected in the price action, if the market continues to grind out new highs I stay long. Elliot says that the constant meddling in the economy by governments,the BoE,IMF,ECB,has exacerbated the problems in the economy.
Financial markets are out of balance,debt levels worse now than 2007.
Credit growth peaked in 2008,with consequent effects.
Times of cheap debt are ending,no cheap loans,cash is king.
If you agree on this analysis does it mean we are in or entertering a bear market ?
Does it mean that the less sophisticated trader should cash in his shares ?
If so where should he put his money ?
Sorry chaps..you can bet your dollar that as soon as I enter the market the bloody share prices will fall.
Edited by avinalarf on Sunday 14th August 13:45
Edited by avinalarf on Sunday 14th August 13:47
Do I think we're possibly setting up for a sharp move down in the coming weeks sure, am I shorting now ahead of the move no!. I have some levels planned wrt to the Us markets where if we lose them this week I'll go short but anything under 2040 in the Spx I'd view as a buying opportunity for a rough target of 2500 before a much larger move down.
Ultimately I feel the markets will crash on a huge scale based on all this qe, fundamentally are we really any better off than we were in 2008 I don't think so, have they solved any of the larger issues from there no, did they get rid of too big to fail no. In fact you could potentially argue things are a lot worse than in 08 should a next major crisis occur. But is any of that tradable on a day to day basis not at all it's just pure opinion and opinion won't make you money in this market. ,
'The market can stay irrational for longer than you can remain solvent' 
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-15/... - This time it's different??
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-15/... - This time it's different??
Dave350 said:
Dave350 said:
My shares in BooHoo (Clothes retailer similar to Asos on a smaller scale) have gone from 26p and tipped 30p today over the past 6 weeks.
I can see these creeping up to 40p in the short-medium term with some good results.
Just over a year later, and from my starting point of 26p, with a few more bought in at 31p, these are now at 57.5p. I can see these creeping up to 40p in the short-medium term with some good results.
I'm still backing them to go to at least 65p within the next 6 months.
Boohoo have a £5m option to buy 'Pretty Little Thing' which is currently run by the family of one of Boohoo's founders which expires in March 2017. PLT is currently trading at over £30m Revenue and is doing well in America as well as benefitting from exports with the current £ in USA.
I'm backing this to tip over £1 now. I will sell up most likely in March when they have hopefully used their option to buy PLT.
twinturboz said:
Ultimately I feel the markets will crash on a huge scale based on all this qe,
Are you able to explain the mechanism for that?I don't think markets can crash without whole economies crashing - there's simply nowhere else for money to go. And when whole economies crash the question "is there any lunch today?" is likely to be more pressing than "what's the value of my shareholdings?"! As ever, the biggest risks are political rather than economic. What price a Corbyn government? That should be good for market confidence...
Ozzie Osmond said:
Are you able to explain the mechanism for that?
Nope well not exactly otherwise I'd be some billionare hedgefund owner 
. What I mean is no one is really going to know what the catalyst is otherwise it wouldn't be a black swan event. I do agree that the next crash could well be whole economies crashing. 08 was the banks going bankrupt this time it's likely to be about governments defaulting.
It will stem from debt and valuation concerns and if it starts I don't think the central banks currently have any bullets left to stop it. Already if you look at their methods they are having a diminishing effect interest rate cuts didn't work so we had multiple rounds of QE, that's not working so well go negative rates, that's not working lets think about helicopter money and so on.
Since 2008 total government debt worldwide has doubled to $59 trillion, if you add in household corporate and bank debt then the stats say the figure is $199 trillion and that was in 2014, it's probably a discussion for a much deeper thread but you only have to look at the fed's reaction to their one hike and immediate pullback from 5 hikes to know that of sole importance is price stability and to hold the market up.
On the flip side if you think this massive experiment since 2008 will work and the market will move to substantial growth which eventually leads to all the debt being paid off then all well and good. What's clear is they'll try and do everything possible to prop up the markets for as long as possible.
twinturboz said:
Bigger picture, expecting a reversal soon to squeeze out the shorts which might take us as far as the 47-50 area to then set up a bigger short to retest the Jan lows.
Crude now we see if a retest of the lows is on. Would have loved to stayed with it for as long as 47 but exited in the 45's. This whole opec meeting is going to be the same as the last can't see anything being done at all. Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 2nd August 10:49
twinturboz said:
twinturboz said:
Bigger picture, expecting a reversal soon to squeeze out the shorts which might take us as far as the 47-50 area to then set up a bigger short to retest the Jan lows.
Crude now we see if a retest of the lows is on. Would have loved to stayed with it for as long as 47 but exited in the 45's. This whole opec meeting is going to be the same as the last can't see anything being done at all. Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 2nd August 10:49
As the Hedge Funds have sold length over the last month the product has become more susceptible to a short squeeze
I think the current move is all about positioning relative to last Wednesdays WTI option expiry
At these levels we should see more producer hedging in the forward curve once again adding to the bearish fundamentals
traxx said:
twinturboz said:
twinturboz said:
Bigger picture, expecting a reversal soon to squeeze out the shorts which might take us as far as the 47-50 area to then set up a bigger short to retest the Jan lows.
Crude now we see if a retest of the lows is on. Would have loved to stayed with it for as long as 47 but exited in the 45's. This whole opec meeting is going to be the same as the last can't see anything being done at all. Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 2nd August 10:49
As the Hedge Funds have sold length over the last month the product has become more susceptible to a short squeeze
I think the current move is all about positioning relative to last Wednesdays WTI option expiry
At these levels we should see more producer hedging in the forward curve once again adding to the bearish fundamentals
I made a bit of money in DNO, but missed out on making more as I tried to optimise too much on buying another oil stock at the low before it jumped up to current prices. Now just waiting for it to drop again before getting back in, unless I see some nice short term trades on something.NRS said:
I'm putting my reputation on the line from the advice on here! After discussions with a colleague he thinks oil is not really related to charts, whereas I have been arguing for twinturboz generally being right from the past chart analysis, plus the OPEC meeting doing nothing and so oil dropping again. Not decided on a prize, but the general outline is "After the opec meeting Brent is not going to test Jan lows around $35", I made a bit of money in DNO, but missed out on making more as I tried to optimise too much on buying another oil stock at the low before it jumped up to current prices. Now just waiting for it to drop again before getting back in, unless I see some nice short term trades on something.
It's been a good trade technically, the last decline was held by that 4 hourly 10 ema all the way down, since we "bottomed" on that inventory report two weeks or so back at 39ish, we then held above it until the bull flag at around 43 into 41 and then from there all the way up to current price hasn't seen a h4 10 ema break apart from a little stop run on the inventories this week. I made a bit of money in DNO, but missed out on making more as I tried to optimise too much on buying another oil stock at the low before it jumped up to current prices. Now just waiting for it to drop again before getting back in, unless I see some nice short term trades on something.Short term way extended so plan is to short on a break and hold below that h4 10ema for 1st targets into around 45ish.
Hard to see the pattern from there but 2 options the way I see it anyway if 44/45 was to hold and then bounces back up to 49/50 then it would setup an inverse head and shoulders that could target into the 60's. The other option is the retest or break of the last lows at 39. But with the strength of the bounce off the lows a retest could well be out of the picture already. We'll see how this pans out in the next few weeks.
If I remember correctly the last Opec meeting was a quick $3-$4 flush over night and back up the next morning.
I guess it's one of those things you have to use technicals and see how they actually work in trades to believe in them, that's not to say they work perfectly or all the time but assuming most of the algos are programmed on them so probably a bit self fulfilling.
Edited by twinturboz on Friday 19th August 17:55
Edited by twinturboz on Friday 19th August 18:03
Another good day in the world of Sirius Minerals (SXX). Now a billion pound company, despite the fact it does have any income as yet.
Surely will move from AIM. into FTSE250 shortly, as still decent SP increases forecast before year end, no doubt linked to release of confirmation of all funding being in place, which is the last real box not yet ticked.
Long may it continue.
Surely will move from AIM. into FTSE250 shortly, as still decent SP increases forecast before year end, no doubt linked to release of confirmation of all funding being in place, which is the last real box not yet ticked.
Long may it continue.
KTF said:
Persimmon doing well off the back of their results today. +17% for me now after buying on the day the brexit result was announced 
Ha ha. I did exactly the same. Bought Barclays, Lloyds and Persimmon on the day after Brexit. I also bought a chunk of SXX at about 17.5p which I am tempted to sell off the original stake.
Only just showing a profit when I checked this morning.Hobo said:
Another good day in the world of Sirius Minerals (SXX). Now a billion pound company, despite the fact it does have any income as yet.
Surely will move from AIM. into FTSE250 shortly, as still decent SP increases forecast before year end, no doubt linked to release of confirmation of all funding being in place, which is the last real box not yet ticked.
Long may it continue.
How much further do peeps think they have to go? SOU are also doing very well, both are pretty much at 12 month highs.Surely will move from AIM. into FTSE250 shortly, as still decent SP increases forecast before year end, no doubt linked to release of confirmation of all funding being in place, which is the last real box not yet ticked.
Long may it continue.
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