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[twinturboz]

twinturboz said:

Oil will be fun this week, Opec shenanigans, a deal is still unlikely although Opec have been up to some tricks. They've ramped up loading by a significant amount these last 2 weeks not sure if that is indicative of some sort of deal or not, but shorts have ramped up in oil last week so expecting a squeeze at some point this week, inventory numbers should be bullish this week too.

So "deal" done, except it's not much of a deal seeing as you've been ramping up production and then freezing at those levels.

Just to put it in perspective the production limit is deal for opec at 32.5 million the following months are what opec was producing.

Aug- 33.23 million
JUL- 32.86 million
JUN- 32.86 million
MAY-32.36 million
APR- 32.25 million

I'm shorting this squeeze in oil.

Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 28th September 19:47

[R8Steve]

twinturboz said:

So "deal" done, except it's not much of a deal seeing as you've been ramping up production and then freezing at those levels.

Just to put it in perspective the production limit is deal for opec at 32.5 million the following months are what opec was producing.

Aug- 33.23 million
JUL- 32.86 million
JUN- 32.86 million
MAY-32.36 million
APR- 32.25 million

I'm shorting this squeeze in oil.

Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 28th September 19:47

It does remove any uncertainty over any further increase in productivity though so I still see it as a positive.

[walm]

R8Steve said:

It does remove any uncertainty over any further increase in productivity though so I still see it as a positive.

Other than:
OPEC never deliver on their promises.
They haven't decided WHO cuts the 2%.
Iran will continue to increase.
Positivity now priced in anyway.

[Pillskii]

Bought into Capita (CPI.L) this morning. It's dropped 20% on opening following a cut to expected profit and slowing completion of deals due to Brexit. Looks oversold to me given the revised profit expectations and I expect a quick bounce and to (hopefully) be out within a few days around the 850 mark. Can't honestly see much more downside short-term but hey you never know...

Quite a big holding in the Woodford Income fund and it will be interesting if he keeps his stake or sells like he did with Rolls Royce.

[dom9]

Down almost 30% now... Would be a big bounce back to 850!

Will watch that one though as it is a hefty drop...

[avinalarf]

I would presume the next couple of years shares will be very volatile.....in random order...
Brexit negotiations
USA elections
Japan
Greece
Italy ,Spain,Portugal
Some big banks holding questionable debt.
ME
Or have I got that wrong....
What's the view on China and India ?

[010101]

Who or what do you best reckon influences the degree of volatility?
Unfortunately, it is possibly military action since fiscal dominance persists.

[bigweb]

anyone think Deutschebank is a good mid term buy?

[K12beano]

bigweb said:

anyone think Deutschebank is a good mid term buy?

Mrs Merkel - if the rumours are to be believed! Nobody else though....

Not that past performance is ever anything to do with the price of bread, how brilliant have Lloyds and RBS been over the last ten years??

[bigweb]

K12beano said:

rs Merkel - if the rumours are to be believed! Nobody else though....

Not that past performance is ever anything to do with the price of bread, how brilliant have Lloyds and RBS been over the last ten years??

I suppose if you bought at the bottom of the market you would be thinking both had been brilliant

[K12beano]

bigweb said:

K12beano said:

rs Merkel - if the rumours are to be believed! Nobody else though....

Not that past performance is ever anything to do with the price of bread, how brilliant have Lloyds and RBS been over the last ten years??

I suppose if you bought at the bottom of the market you would be thinking both had been brilliant

[XMT]

avinalarf said:

I would presume the next couple of years shares will be very volatile.....in random order...
Brexit negotiations
USA elections
Japan
Greece
Italy ,Spain,Portugal
Some big banks holding questionable debt.
ME
Or have I got that wrong....
What's the view on China and India ?

I would say the outlook of India and China have a HUGE part to play in how the next 20 years look. I think for now we dont have much information on their true postion.

As soon as this information starts to come to light from a credible source things will become very interesting!

[twinturboz]

R8Steve said:

It does remove any uncertainty over any further increase in productivity though so I still see it as a positive.

To some extent, although I'm thinking short term only. 2 months is a long time and the finer details are that really nothing is agreed.

You already have Iraq disputing the figures, might get another little squeeze if Russia releases some sort of statement but bigger picture wise I'm looking at below. If crude breaks that pattern then ok I'll take more notice but I think how that Dollar index chart breaks will be a bigger driver for the direction of oil than OPEC.

Also do OPEC really want oil in the $50's I think they are most happiest with it in the mid 40's








DB nothing good going on there one bit, yes there's probably a trade in there based solely on the fact they won't let it go under but as Dk said earlier is it really worth the risk, if you really want some sort of play on a bounce how about exposure to a european bank etf or even take options on it rather than actual stock. Secondly should the coco's be triggered your going to be heavily diluted.

Then again Mario seems to think Db poses no systemic risk

[bigweb]

what do you guys think of Ambarella? AMBA.

They make the chips which power the cameras in GoPros and DJI's drones.

[twinturboz]

bigweb said:

what do you guys think of Ambarella? AMBA.

They make the chips which power the cameras in GoPros and DJI's drones.

Was just looking at that one yesterday, if it can get over $75 I would probably buy it could see the 90's after that but someone else might know more about the fundamental picture.
Gpro looked at that too almost 80% of the lows.

If anyone is interested was doing a read earlier found this informative

http://www.alt-m.org/2016/08/04/is-deutsche-bank-k...

[WindyCommon]

avinalarf said:

I would presume the next couple of years shares will be very volatile.....in random order...
Brexit negotiations
USA elections
Japan
Greece
Italy ,Spain,Portugal
Some big banks holding questionable debt.
ME
Or have I got that wrong....
What's the view on China and India ?

Of course you are right, but remember that there are ALWAYS good reasons not invest!

This version of an old theme is a couple of years out of date, and a somewhat US-centric, but the point is clear...

[Luke.]

Luke. said:

GW Pharmaceuticals is flying at the mo.

Up £1.20 since I mentioned them on Monday to 825p.

[twinturboz]

Well that's a taste of the tiny panic if DB goes, liquidity just fell off a cliff in the US futures market.

The amount of put options just bought on DB is staggering.

[Oakey]

snowy said:

Yep I've been in SOLG for about 3 years, averaged down to about 8p, currently have 600k shares split between ISA and SIPP, I think I'm going to see this out until a major buys the company, or SOLG decides to take it forward themselves, as it's classed as a tier 1 resource we could be looking at around £1 a share

DYOR

Sold mine at just over 16p this morning, think it's run out of steam for now.

[twinturboz]

Anyone take the long side in DB? What a squeeze