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I lost a fair whack on desire. had a stop at 0.90 but it gapped from 100 to 34 (34 is where i got stopped out). Loaded up a few after that but nowhere near in the size I was in originally at.
got a few BP at 400 average.
Long icap (waiting for 500) and short usd/jpy
was long barcap and BA but got bored of waiting for osmething to happen there so pretty much scratched trades.
got a few BP at 400 average.
Long icap (waiting for 500) and short usd/jpy
was long barcap and BA but got bored of waiting for osmething to happen there so pretty much scratched trades.
DonkeyApple said:
NoelWatson said:
DonkeyApple said:
I wouldn't take them on at their own game but conversely they are too big to get involved in my game.
But surely you are then up against the one man bands running models from their spreadsheets, such ashttp://epchan.blogspot.com/
First, I'm not sure I understand the point.
Am I meant to know Ernie Chan? Is he a big swinging dick? He appears to be just another chap who is trying to sell a book and associated products?
I have an office in the City which just houses PCs running glorified spreadshhets, but on areas which the big money can't get into.
One example: investment trusts. Illiquid, can;'t be bought is size so generally left to pension/ISA funds etc. NAV of constituents fluctuates by the second but the market price while logically correlated isn't allways.
ITs publish their constituents and weightings, which allows you to build a true, live, realtime NAV.
IT's nearly allways trade at a discount to NAV, but the level of this discount varies.
As you can monitor the precise real NAV you can also monitor the precise live discount.
As such, when the live discount steps away from the average discount all you need to do is work out why.
In 90% of the cases you'll see an increase in vol on one side of the book and this is a near perfect indication that a fund is buying a position of value. The fun here is trying to find the IT that they are often switching out of at the same time as that side is even better.
What this tells you is that when the volume spike on the buy or sell side stops you can step in and trade the discount disparity. You can even hedge it against comparable indices.
It does work very well but we monitor over 1000 ITs (and equivs) and none of them can be traded in size without taking time so big funds cannot do what we do but at the same time it is their actions which is creating out opportunity.
So, one massive nerd + an Excel spreadsheet + money can = returns.
DomBertone said:
T5SOR said:
MrCippo said:
keeping an eye on BPC too, might be an interesting prospect.
Just out of curiosity, i'm a noob in this, but how much would you invest for a start in a company ? I understand it would be how much you have etc. But how much would you put in as a minimum for a good tip ?
They certianly are one to watch for the future. I think their license is still suspended though, as they were 2.5p not long ago. I'm suprised they are back to 4.0p!Just out of curiosity, i'm a noob in this, but how much would you invest for a start in a company ? I understand it would be how much you have etc. But how much would you put in as a minimum for a good tip ?
One for now has to be GKP. Massive upside from 137p. Once they finish drilling they could have anywhere from 40-100 billion barrels of oil!
YELL always seem to drift then rise strongly too.
My list:
GKP (Holding)
XEL
SEY (Sold last week)
BPC
YELL
LLOY
Iraq are also upgrading their current oil reserves tomorrow.
Good week for GKP I feel
NoelWatson said:
DonkeyApple said:
NoelWatson said:
DonkeyApple said:
I wouldn't take them on at their own game but conversely they are too big to get involved in my game.
But surely you are then up against the one man bands running models from their spreadsheets, such ashttp://epchan.blogspot.com/
First, I'm not sure I understand the point.
Am I meant to know Ernie Chan? Is he a big swinging dick? He appears to be just another chap who is trying to sell a book and associated products?
I have an office in the City which just houses PCs running glorified spreadshhets, but on areas which the big money can't get into.
One example: investment trusts. Illiquid, can;'t be bought is size so generally left to pension/ISA funds etc. NAV of constituents fluctuates by the second but the market price while logically correlated isn't allways.
ITs publish their constituents and weightings, which allows you to build a true, live, realtime NAV.
IT's nearly allways trade at a discount to NAV, but the level of this discount varies.
As you can monitor the precise real NAV you can also monitor the precise live discount.
As such, when the live discount steps away from the average discount all you need to do is work out why.
In 90% of the cases you'll see an increase in vol on one side of the book and this is a near perfect indication that a fund is buying a position of value. The fun here is trying to find the IT that they are often switching out of at the same time as that side is even better.
What this tells you is that when the volume spike on the buy or sell side stops you can step in and trade the discount disparity. You can even hedge it against comparable indices.
It does work very well but we monitor over 1000 ITs (and equivs) and none of them can be traded in size without taking time so big funds cannot do what we do but at the same time it is their actions which is creating out opportunity.
So, one massive nerd + an Excel spreadsheet + money can = returns.
ben_h100 said:
What are peoples thoughts on the following?
Landore (LND), Desire petroleum (DES) and Kefi minerals (KEFI)
I've done a little research and am looking to put a couple of hundred into each to set me on my way.
I have had a look at Kefi minerals for you as I am an exploration/mining geologist and as I specialise in the Middle East. On a first glance they look as good as any early stage junior. Their Turkish licences look interesting, however their Saudi licences are still pending and I am not sure the optimism in their recent press release is well placed. Note that most western companies trying to do mineral exploration in Saudi have failed to achieve any progress on their licences, some for 3+ years. Unfortunate as the potential is not bad. I wonder if their management really understand the Saudi mentality yet!Landore (LND), Desire petroleum (DES) and Kefi minerals (KEFI)
I've done a little research and am looking to put a couple of hundred into each to set me on my way.
Bear in mind timescales; one project I have worked on was first found 30 years before it went into development. This is not uncommon. Hold, as the team looks good, but be ready for dilution each time they need to raise more funds to sustain exploration, hopefully at a higher price than their recent placement.
You need to be either IN or OUT of desire in the next few days.
Big, big annoucement due potentially by the end of the week about hitting (or not) oil in the Falklands.
Read here for good information and opinion... also alot of toss too, but as they say, do your own research and you'll be fine:
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?display=dis...
For the record... im IN!
Big, big annoucement due potentially by the end of the week about hitting (or not) oil in the Falklands.
Read here for good information and opinion... also alot of toss too, but as they say, do your own research and you'll be fine:
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?display=dis...
For the record... im IN!
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