Share tips thread

[dirty boy]

honest_delboy said:

Thought i'd drag this old thread up to see how everyone was doing.

I'm pretty good but it looks like some people have done very very well, take a bow.

Took a massive loss on BP, sold at 400, bought back at 430 (not as many) as I did some calculations that valued them longer term at around 470, but it's been a slow recovery.


Have been topping up Desire, moving holdings across from Rockhopper.

[koolchris99]

still hold slot of RKH/DES/BOR/FOGL but have been skimming profit when I feel it's too high.

brought myself a nice z4 with the profit.

still in BP, HSBC, UEN, OMAG,

[cymtriks]

Banks still look very low, Lloyds is under 80p but a few years ago it was at 500-600 and was in 300-500 for a long time before that. Would a bank expert care to comment on this?

Thorntons, a long term average of 150, price in range 110-200 now at 82p. Still tastes nice, plenty of people in the shop.

[MrCippo]

i'm in ARG and XEL and keeping an eye on BOR. not playing massive but trying to grow.

[koolchris99]

Galileo1 said:

DES, RKH, XEL & BMR( - worth a look!) RRL may be worth a punt and from whispers BOR may have 'something' on the horizon....

DES, RKH, BOR and RRL you have missed the boat

[cymtriks]

I said:

Banks still look very low, Lloyds is under 80p but a few years ago it was at 500-600 and was in 300-500 for a long time before that. Would a bank expert care to comment on this?

No thoughts from the PH massive? Is the same business doing the same thing suddenly worth only a fraction of what it was worth for a decade?

For a three year keeper would this make sense?

[Fittster]

cymtriks said:

I said:

Banks still look very low, Lloyds is under 80p but a few years ago it was at 500-600 and was in 300-500 for a long time before that. Would a bank expert care to comment on this?

No thoughts from the PH massive? Is the same business doing the same thing suddenly worth only a fraction of what it was worth for a decade?

For a three year keeper would this make sense?

How are you valuing them? Understanding a banks balance sheet is rather tricky, especially if you are as stupid and lazy as me.

[dirty boy]

koolchris99 said:

Galileo1 said:

DES, RKH, XEL & BMR( - worth a look!) RRL may be worth a punt and from whispers BOR may have 'something' on the horizon....

DES, RKH, BOR and RRL you have missed the boat

There's not massive upside to RKH, but flow testing could be interesting and push it one way or the other in a significant direction, obviously that will impact DES.

Should flow testing in RKH be good, i'll be loading up on DES big time as quick as possible. Once drilling gets underway you'll definately see a rise, and post drilling? Well, who knows.....all in on Red or Black?

[cymtriks]

Fittster said:

cymtriks said:

I said:

Banks still look very low, Lloyds is under 80p but a few years ago it was at 500-600 and was in 300-500 for a long time before that. Would a bank expert care to comment on this?

No thoughts from the PH massive? Is the same business doing the same thing suddenly worth only a fraction of what it was worth for a decade?

For a three year keeper would this make sense?

How are you valuing them? Understanding a banks balance sheet is rather tricky, especially if you are as stupid and lazy as me.

The banks have been very much in the news for getting into trouble for a couple of years now. How much of this revaluing is based on bank bashing? Is the balance sheet really so much worse now than at any time over the last decade that the business is only worth a fraction of what it was? How many of their potentially bad debts actually turned bad (the stories pending doom two years ago didn't turn out that bad for most of us)? The stock market is back to where it was in 2005, why not bank shares?

My post is more a suspicion than a trawl through a balance sheet. Where they really wildly overvalued for a decade (and for a long time before that IIRC), are they now unfairly held down or has the game really changed by circa 80% of a companies value?

Curious...

[matsmith]

cymtriks said:

Banks still look very low, Lloyds is under 80p but a few years ago it was at 500-600 and was in 300-500 for a long time before that. Would a bank expert care to comment on this?

I wouldnt like to call myself a bank expert, but il comment. The Lloyds you are describing with a share price of 500-600p is completely different to the Lloyds we know today

Lloyds have a market cap of £52 Billion at present, at their peak in their market cap was £34 Billion, thats just goes to show how many new shares there are

Lloyds and HBOS had a peak combined market cap of £75 Billion, though the VWAP was around 10% lower

I hate to sound condescending so dont take this the wrong way, but if you are going to invest in banks then you really need to research a lot more than just the headline share price.

[dibbly dobbler]

matsmith said:

I hate to sound condescending so dont take this the wrong way, but if you are going to invest in anything then you really need to do at least some very basic research!

EFA

Good post Mat btw

[cymtriks]

dibbly dobbler said:

matsmith said:

I hate to sound condescending so dont take this the wrong way, but if you are going to invest in anything then you really need to do at least some very basic research!

EFA

Good post Mat btw

OK, I'll bite, what, in order of importance, would you consider the most important things to know before deciding if a share looks undervalued?

Some people have proposed complex charts, others have argued that you may as well buy at random, some favour quick trades, others play a long game, some favour actually talking to the company's customers and paying a visit to see how they treat a prospective customer...

So what's your system?

[cymtriks]

matsmith said:

cymtriks said:

Banks still look very low, Lloyds is under 80p but a few years ago it was at 500-600 and was in 300-500 for a long time before that. Would a bank expert care to comment on this?

I wouldnt like to call myself a bank expert, but I'll comment. The Lloyds you are describing with a share price of 500-600p is completely different to the Lloyds we know today

Lloyds have a market cap of £52 Billion at present, at their peak in their market cap was £34 Billion, thats just goes to show how many new shares there are

Lloyds and HBOS had a peak combined market cap of £75 Billion, though the VWAP was around 10% lower

I hate to sound condescending so dont take this the wrong way, but if you are going to invest in banks then you really need to research a lot more than just the headline share price.

So does this explain a drop in value of 80%? There aren't five times as many shares, the doomsday scenarios being predicted a couple of years back didn't happen, there is even talk of the state making a profit on the bailout...

Yes, it's different, and there are factors that make the shares worth less such as there being more of them but the key question is is it really worth 80 percent less.

[NoelWatson]

Fittster said:

Understanding a banks balance sheet is rather tricky, especially if you are as stupid and lazy as me.

I would suggest that there are very few people that understand it.

[dirty boy]

NoelWatson said:

Fittster said:

Understanding a banks balance sheet is rather tricky, especially if you are as stupid and lazy as me.

I would suggest that there are very few people that understand it.

I don't touch banks, never have, never will, too difficult to value.

[dibbly dobbler]

cymtriks said:

dibbly dobbler said:

matsmith said:

I hate to sound condescending so dont take this the wrong way, but if you are going to invest in anything then you really need to do at least some very basic research!

EFA

Good post Mat btw

OK, I'll bite, what, in order of importance, would you consider the most important things to know before deciding if a share looks undervalued?

Some people have proposed complex charts, others have argued that you may as well buy at random, some favour quick trades, others play a long game, some favour actually talking to the company's customers and paying a visit to see how they treat a prospective customer...

So what's your system?

cymtriks - first off sorry for my snarky comment. I will put my hand up and say I am not qualified to properly answer your question. I find it hard to believe that any amateur investor could possibly know any better than the big institutional investors so as a 'minnow' you'll always be up against it imho. I would play the long game if I was you - if you're going to hold for a year or three then LBG is probably as good a bet as any, I hope so anyway as I've got a few

Mat - you seem to know what you're on about, what say you ?

[cocopop]

Going back to oil, one I've had my eye on is BPC or Bahamas Petroleum Company as they're now known. Looking at it as a longer term bet, but lots of promising seismic results and good partnership with Statoil.

But then I am a complete beginner at investing.

As above, very interested in hearing some peoples methods of research.

[pimping]

as stated above very interested in other peoples research methods. switched from managed funds to doing my own thing last week and i've got to say i am well and truly hooked and wished i'd discovered this years ago. it's exactly what i've been looking for for a long time!

[dirty boy]

pimping said:

as stated above very interested in other peoples research methods. switched from managed funds to doing my own thing last week and i've got to say i am well and truly hooked and wished i'd discovered this years ago. it's exactly what i've been looking for for a long time!

Stick to what you know about. If you know a bit about oil companies, stick with them, oil prices, results of other companies with prospects/production in similar fields etc, they all move across the board, all very closely related.

I'm watching Desire and Rockhopper VERY closely at the moment, as news from RKH could massively impact both shares. I think if it's positive, people will dive out of RKH, take the profits and pile into DES pushing that higher, as there's then more potential there, and it's massively derisked.

DOYR though!

I've been playing with DES in our share club since 2004.

Might be worth investigating a share club? You can pool together resources, gives you the ability to lose fees more easily

[Fittster]

pimping said:

as stated above very interested in other peoples research methods. switched from managed funds to doing my own thing last week and i've got to say i am well and truly hooked and wished i'd discovered this years ago. it's exactly what i've been looking for for a long time!

All IMHO.

Forget technical analysis I've seen no evidence that has convinced me that it actually works.

Spending all your spare time trying to analyse the balance sheets of various companies trying to spot a winner is a pretty futile activity. There are just too many factors that can impact a company’s future. The internet is full of people who claim they have analysed a company and that the market will soon realise they are correct and the price will move to the level they have predicted. When questioned on how they have come to these conclusions they will generally respond with DYOR. At best they have some rubbish pack of a fag packet numbers and are trying to ramp the share.

No one on the internet has ever made a loss day trading, if you believe what people post on various websites.