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briangriffin said:
I'm not exactly savvy in all that financial speak, so whats the gyst?
No news? Or are maersk running the fuel now and the seaborne trials are done?
Bit of both really. They were doing seaborne testing on two of the different types of engine that Maersk use - MAN and Wartsilla (probably spelt that wrong!). The Wartsilla one came back as 'exceeding all expectations' a month or two ago, but there was a hold up with the MAN engine due to the engine manufacturer - no one knows what the hold up was, but it wasn't to do with the fuel. They've now come back with a result that 'meets expectations' on this second engine.No news? Or are maersk running the fuel now and the seaborne trials are done?
This means that the next stage of proving the fuel - letter of no objection, or LoNO - can begin when everyone's ready and sobered up a bit. This will be seaborne testing during which, it was initially assumed, that Maersk would run the fuel on 2 ships with the 2 different engines for 4000 hours. This is probably still the case, but it's been mentioned that the testing could take place on more than the 2 ships originally thought - great! (my view is that Maersk will run it on as many as they can as they've proven it works and can use these 4000 hours to run their ships cheaper but still charge their punters the same - they're only 'testing' after all
).I also believe that they [u]have[/u] to do these 4000 hours of testing, rather than needing to do them, so are doing little more than ticking a box. What it does mean though is that, depending on the amount of ships used in the LoNO phase, QFI should see some cash from the sales of it, which will give everyone an indication of the potential revenue when it starts being used commercially (i.e. after LoNO).
(Disclaimer - I am a bit of a QFI fan-boy, so some of this is possibly overly optimistic!)
Cheers for that mate,
Could expect Maersk to do well share wise too then....
Want to keep buying QF shares before the 4000 hours are up and as long as the shares don't march to high in the meantime. I'm guessing they can't make any significant announcements on the fuel until the tetsing is up even if Maersk are as good as saying they're going to start snapping the fuel up massively as it's not technically 'proven'?
What are your pesimistic, realistic and optimistic predictions for the share price? you seem to be a lot more clued in than me although i work industry related and understand the fuel concept i understand little about the market itself so to speak.
Could expect Maersk to do well share wise too then....
Want to keep buying QF shares before the 4000 hours are up and as long as the shares don't march to high in the meantime. I'm guessing they can't make any significant announcements on the fuel until the tetsing is up even if Maersk are as good as saying they're going to start snapping the fuel up massively as it's not technically 'proven'?
What are your pesimistic, realistic and optimistic predictions for the share price? you seem to be a lot more clued in than me although i work industry related and understand the fuel concept i understand little about the market itself so to speak.
briangriffin said:
Cheers for that mate,
Could expect Maersk to do well share wise too then....
Want to keep buying QF shares before the 4000 hours are up and as long as the shares don't march to high in the meantime. I'm guessing they can't make any significant announcements on the fuel until the tetsing is up even if Maersk are as good as saying they're going to start snapping the fuel up massively as it's not technically 'proven'?
What are your pesimistic, realistic and optimistic predictions for the share price? you seem to be a lot more clued in than me although i work industry related and understand the fuel concept i understand little about the market itself so to speak.
Optimistic - We complete LoNO, move to a bette rmarket listing (FTSE?) and start paying regular dividends of about 5 or 6%. We get into bed with Mearsk in a big way and attract two majors players (BP and Shell, perhaps). Bidding war for buyout ensues, current share price (say £5 at the time - you did say optimistic Could expect Maersk to do well share wise too then....
Want to keep buying QF shares before the 4000 hours are up and as long as the shares don't march to high in the meantime. I'm guessing they can't make any significant announcements on the fuel until the tetsing is up even if Maersk are as good as saying they're going to start snapping the fuel up massively as it's not technically 'proven'?
What are your pesimistic, realistic and optimistic predictions for the share price? you seem to be a lot more clued in than me although i work industry related and understand the fuel concept i understand little about the market itself so to speak.
) plus 30% (so £6.50 per share) is given to convince shareholders to agree. Or a one off sweetener dividend of 30% is given to holders, QFI and shareholders are then given their equivalent shareholding in the new owner company (would be great if it's a big player - long term dividends)Realistic/potential - Midway through/towards the end of LoNO, QFI are approached by a major player and offered current price (probably £1.50 or so) plus 25% to sell the company. At this point, we will have a lot of shorter term shareholders because the marketing machine has taken hold and these people want to make their quick buck so vote to sell. QFI goes to BP or Shell who then continue with production and commercial roll out.
Pessimistic view = Half way through LoNO, someone in a white coat finds out how to make fuel out of vegetarians farts so QFI becomes redundant
Sounds good to me! Generally lol'd at your pessimistic view.
Can a company reject a buyout if they're floated then? Say QF are at £2 a share and BP offer £2.50 or even £3 can this be knocked back or can they forcibly buy shares and take control?
I.e. if QF think the fuel is so brilliant that they believe in 10 years time they will be a massive company themselves can whoever owns a large stake and makes the decisions simply say no thanks BP?
sorry for all the Q's very new to how the market works.
Can a company reject a buyout if they're floated then? Say QF are at £2 a share and BP offer £2.50 or even £3 can this be knocked back or can they forcibly buy shares and take control?
I.e. if QF think the fuel is so brilliant that they believe in 10 years time they will be a massive company themselves can whoever owns a large stake and makes the decisions simply say no thanks BP?
sorry for all the Q's very new to how the market works.
briangriffin said:
Sounds good to me! Generally lol'd at your pessimistic view.
Can a company reject a buyout if they're floated then? Say QF are at £2 a share and BP offer £2.50 or even £3 can this be knocked back or can they forcibly buy shares and take control?
I.e. if QF think the fuel is so brilliant that they believe in 10 years time they will be a massive company themselves can whoever owns a large stake and makes the decisions simply say no thanks BP?
sorry for all the Q's very new to how the market works.
No need to apologise! I'm pretty new myself and only found out stuff like this mainly through people on here and other BB's who know what they're talking about!Can a company reject a buyout if they're floated then? Say QF are at £2 a share and BP offer £2.50 or even £3 can this be knocked back or can they forcibly buy shares and take control?
I.e. if QF think the fuel is so brilliant that they believe in 10 years time they will be a massive company themselves can whoever owns a large stake and makes the decisions simply say no thanks BP?
sorry for all the Q's very new to how the market works.
I don't know enough about take overs/buyouts to say with 100% conviction, but I believe it comes down to a shareholder vote and the percentage of total shares those voters hold. As to whether the Board could over-rule shareholder votes, I don't know? I doubt it, but that's just a guess!
I don't know %-age of ownership off the top of my head, but I know there are about 10 very large investors, both personal and institutions, who hold about 50% of the total shares themselves so, if it does go to a shareholder vote, these guys would hold most of the cards. I seem to remember there is one lady who owns something bonkers like 100m shares that her husband left in his will. Imagine the tax bill for that
I would personally be more content if QFI kept themselves to themselves, purely on the basis that the commercial revenues and potential dividends could genuinely afford me a comfortable early retirement (not for a while though!). But if BP said they'd give me 30% in cash plus my share value in BP shares, I don't think I'd exactly be disappointed!
Jonboy_t said:
I would personally be more content if QFI kept themselves to themselves, purely on the basis that the commercial revenues and potential dividends could genuinely afford me a comfortable early retirement (not for a while though!). But if BP said they'd give me 30% in cash plus my share value in BP shares, I don't think I'd exactly be disappointed!
That's what i'm thinking. Do BP actually do something like that in a takeover though? I suppose a lot of the share price issue for QF at present if the future revenues are very hard to predict at present. I work within the Oil industry so it sounds as if it would reduce shipping costs for my company and allow greater yield of high value product which would no longer need to be blended with fuel oil. So theoretically i'm looking at benefits on 2 fronts as long as my company gets involved.
briangriffin said:
Jonboy_t said:
I would personally be more content if QFI kept themselves to themselves, purely on the basis that the commercial revenues and potential dividends could genuinely afford me a comfortable early retirement (not for a while though!). But if BP said they'd give me 30% in cash plus my share value in BP shares, I don't think I'd exactly be disappointed!
That's what i'm thinking. Do BP actually do something like that in a takeover though? I suppose a lot of the share price issue for QF at present if the future revenues are very hard to predict at present. I work within the Oil industry so it sounds as if it would reduce shipping costs for my company and allow greater yield of high value product which would no longer need to be blended with fuel oil. So theoretically i'm looking at benefits on 2 fronts as long as my company gets involved.
In terms on greater yield of high value product, I don't think the actual refining process wouldn't be improved or the end product would be different, just the sludge at the bottom of the tank would be sold rather than whatever is done now.
Jonboy_t said:
In terms on greater yield of high value product, I don't think the actual refining process wouldn't be improved or the end product would be different, just the sludge at the bottom of the tank would be sold rather than whatever is done now.
That's not how I read it, the distillate that is currently used can be sold stand alone as a higher value product than using it to convert the crap into marine fuel. The crap is still the same crap.The new fuel is supposed to reduce emissions etc etc, which may prove useful in future depending on legislation.
Mattt said:
That's not how I read it, the distillate that is currently used can be sold stand alone as a higher value product than using it to convert the crap into marine fuel. The crap is still the same crap.
The new fuel is supposed to reduce emissions etc etc, which may prove useful in future depending on legislation.
This is what i meant, currently higher value products such diesel need to be blended into fuel oil in order to meet commercial shipping regs for emissions, Density, Flash point etc... The new fuel is supposed to reduce emissions etc etc, which may prove useful in future depending on legislation.
If QF technology was used within the refinery industry it would cease or reduce the need to blend this very saleable blend fuel which the refiner could then sell on the open market and increase their margins.
The technology may also help reduce their emissions and negate future tighter european environmental laws which are due to come in over the next few years and which are likely to squeeze refining margins further.
Think I might be misunderstanding the point!
As I understand it, it uses the sludge at the bottom of the 'tank' after useful stuff like petrol, diesel and fake tan is made. They mix it with all kinds of wizardry and then sell it to Maersk as MSAR2. The refinery process itself wouldn't change?
As I understand it, it uses the sludge at the bottom of the 'tank' after useful stuff like petrol, diesel and fake tan is made. They mix it with all kinds of wizardry and then sell it to Maersk as MSAR2. The refinery process itself wouldn't change?
An analogy might be:
Orange juice is sold, but at the bottom of the bottle there is left residue - currently they use some of the orange juice to dilute the residue and then sell it as poor quality juice.
It's better to sell high quality orange juice, but they need to get some return from the residue.
QFI has found that they can use water to dilute the residue, in the process making a version of orange juice that is lower in sugar - and meaning they can sell the rest of the orange juice at higher prices rather than wasting it to dilute the residue.
Orange juice is sold, but at the bottom of the bottle there is left residue - currently they use some of the orange juice to dilute the residue and then sell it as poor quality juice.
It's better to sell high quality orange juice, but they need to get some return from the residue.
QFI has found that they can use water to dilute the residue, in the process making a version of orange juice that is lower in sugar - and meaning they can sell the rest of the orange juice at higher prices rather than wasting it to dilute the residue.
Mattt said:
An analogy might be:
Orange juice is sold, but at the bottom of the bottle there is left residue - currently they use some of the orange juice to dilute the residue and then sell it as poor quality juice.
It's better to sell high quality orange juice, but they need to get some return from the residue.
QFI has found that they can use water to dilute the residue, in the process making a version of orange juice that is lower in sugar - and meaning they can sell the rest of the orange juice at higher prices rather than wasting it to dilute the residue.
Good simple analogy, it will basically leave refiners with more high value product to sell as it isn't being used as a blend product and will also reducing shipping costs for them as MSAR would reduce fuel prices. So I'd say solid refining companies may also be good investments if the fuel goes into mass use within the industry. Orange juice is sold, but at the bottom of the bottle there is left residue - currently they use some of the orange juice to dilute the residue and then sell it as poor quality juice.
It's better to sell high quality orange juice, but they need to get some return from the residue.
QFI has found that they can use water to dilute the residue, in the process making a version of orange juice that is lower in sugar - and meaning they can sell the rest of the orange juice at higher prices rather than wasting it to dilute the residue.
Interesting to me.
Have been watching QFI from the touchlines.... For a little while.
Decided it was time to have a punt earlier this week (took my profit from Tesla - might be wrong, but it can't continue to be valued bigger than main stream auto makers in the short term!)
Anyway, I set my limit on QFI - then it started going north. Pleased to say that, even if I missed the boat, I managed to stick to my guns and sit it out on the quayside. Too easy to go chasing like a rabid dog after a car and forget where you are!
Proud of my discipline!
(Short- to medium- term "dabbler" on small corner of pension funds)
Have been watching QFI from the touchlines.... For a little while.
Decided it was time to have a punt earlier this week (took my profit from Tesla - might be wrong, but it can't continue to be valued bigger than main stream auto makers in the short term!)
Anyway, I set my limit on QFI - then it started going north. Pleased to say that, even if I missed the boat, I managed to stick to my guns and sit it out on the quayside. Too easy to go chasing like a rabid dog after a car and forget where you are!
Proud of my discipline!
(Short- to medium- term "dabbler" on small corner of pension funds)
Jonboy_t said:
Yeah, still there. Looks like the initial run after the first phase of good news has definitely ended!
Should start the mining in the coming days/weeks, so some news to follow on that.
Tempted to top up at 0.4p to be honest. A load of shorters will have made a load of cash on this for sure its been quite volatile.Should start the mining in the coming days/weeks, so some news to follow on that.
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