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twinturboz

1,278 posts

178 months

Monday 22nd September 2014
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Tescos hmm I was hoping for an entry under £2, but it's getting very hard not to take a position now.

K12beano

20,854 posts

275 months

Monday 22nd September 2014
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twinturboz said:
Tescos hmm I was hoping for an entry under £2, but it's getting very hard not to take a position now.
Well, I know "every little helps" but in terms of buying opportunities a Tesco share would appear to be marginally better punt than a chocolate teapot but not as good as the 3:15 at Chepstow!

As one fund manager put it "flabberghasted" [that a FTSE 100 can run itself so badly]

twinturboz

1,278 posts

178 months

Monday 22nd September 2014
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K12beano said:
Well, I know "every little helps" but in terms of buying opportunities a Tesco share would appear to be marginally better punt than a chocolate teapot but not as good as the 3:15 at Chepstow!

As one fund manager put it "flabberghasted" [that a FTSE 100 can run itself so badly]
Haha maybe. It's knife catching no doubt about that, I've taken half position here and kept some dry powder incase it drops significantly below £2.

Lets see how this whole accounting drama plays out. I feel it's getting close to a point where forget good news, but any news that is less worse than expected will cause a spike in the shares. Not saying there isn't some more downside to come, from a technical chart point of view its still a horrible chart, but at the same time this isn't some small time company that's going to go bankrupt over night.

Plus contrarian trading kind of worked for me in Apple and BP wink

trashbat

6,006 posts

153 months

Monday 22nd September 2014
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Why do you think they'll rebound, or why do you think they're undervalued?

It seems easy to fall into the trap of assuming they must ultimately keep going up. I look at them and see a business whose new CEO may be about to uncover other wrongdoing, whose results have apparently peaked in recent years, and who some commentators say are in fundamental trouble:

various said:
Rickin Thakrar at Espirito Santo said Tesco's profits could now be wiped out entirely as it tries to improve its performance. He said: "With some prices 38pc more expensive than Aldi, questionable pricing architecture and higher levels of salt and sugar in some fresh products alongside an ailing non-food business, we believe that Tesco could eventually generate zero profits in the UK – the extent of the risks to us remain large and uncertain."

gregf40

1,114 posts

116 months

Monday 22nd September 2014
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I'm in Tesco at 200.57p.

It's a crap company that badly needs turning round - but I believe it will be done and see today as a good buying opportunity.

I'd love to be a fly on the wall at PWC...

Fittster

20,120 posts

213 months

Monday 22nd September 2014
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trashbat said:
various said:
Rickin Thakrar at Espirito Santo said Tesco's profits could now be wiped out entirely as it tries to improve its performance. He said: "With some prices 38pc more expensive than Aldi, questionable pricing architecture and higher levels of salt and sugar in some fresh products alongside an ailing non-food business, we believe that Tesco could eventually generate zero profits in the UK – the extent of the risks to us remain large and uncertain."
This bloke sounds like a right fool. The success or failure of a supermarket is associated with the levels of salt and sugar in some fresh products?

Aldi compare their prices against brands being sold by the big 4. Is there any evidence how they compare against the big 4 own brand products?

Edited by Fittster on Monday 22 September 17:03

twinturboz

1,278 posts

178 months

Monday 22nd September 2014
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trashbat said:
Why do you think they'll rebound, or why do you think they're undervalued.
Can't qualify the undervalued bit, other than a 43% drop in 12 months and 11 year low.

But do I think they'll rebound in short yes.

My argument a few weeks back was that there would be a bit more downside to come and a bit more pain in earnings before things got better but from that point to today shares are down roughly 15%.

I think sentiment is fairly close to as negative as it's going to get, and I don't buy the story the fundamentals are dead, people will always need to do their shopping your dealing with a consumer staple its just that the consumer right now isn't choosing Tesco.

Consumers are fickle give them a reason to shop at Tesco's and they'll come back in no time, now if we take the major argument that the consumer is price driven well then I'd say Tesco are best placed out of any of the big 4 to compete on that front.

Tesco still has the largest market share compared to the other supermarkets and also the biggest margins which gives it a great position in terms of pricing power. They haven't as yet decided to go after Lidl or Aldi but if they decided they wanted to go after that market would you bet against a company the size of Tesco winning that war?

On another point, although unlikely, Qatar was looking at investing in Sainsburys maybe Tesco becomes a more attractive proposition if the share price continues to dive.

Edited by twinturboz on Monday 22 September 18:05

g4ry13

16,975 posts

255 months

Tuesday 23rd September 2014
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I am considering them, but am very concerned the final dividend is going to be slashed. That will obviously impact the share price.

For now i'm just going to sit tight on my very speculative oil play which is slowly coming good.

marky1

1,046 posts

196 months

Tuesday 23rd September 2014
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g4ry13 said:
I am considering them, but am very concerned the final dividend is going to be slashed. That will obviously impact the share price.

For now i'm just going to sit tight on my very speculative oil play which is slowly coming good.
Most likely they will totally pull the dividend.

DSLiverpool

14,740 posts

202 months

Tuesday 23rd September 2014
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Good time to buy top 10 ?

AOK

2,297 posts

166 months

Tuesday 23rd September 2014
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I'm thinking of dipping back into BMW today, as a long term hold, but I would need to wait till the NYSE opens to raise some funds (2.30pm).

It has taken quite a dive the last few weeks, seems to be due to slower growth in China, and forecasts currently range from 82.00 to 120.00.

It's an incredibly stable company over the last 5 years, with a solid EPS. Valuation seems in line with most car companies, but they are leading the way in electric which could be a good earner for them if it picks up before the competition catches up. Not a bad div play either.

Any thoughts?

Mal001

1,379 posts

228 months

Tuesday 23rd September 2014
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g4ry13 said:
I am considering them, but am very concerned the final dividend is going to be slashed. That will obviously impact the share price.

For now i'm just going to sit tight on my very speculative oil play which is slowly coming good.
Speaking of oilies, do you know much about Tullow? I've watched them for a while and then stopped, looking recently they've fallen through the floor to about £6.50 from £14.

From what I can see there is problems in Uganda?

My other oil play, Aminex seem to be coming along though.

catfood12

1,418 posts

142 months

Tuesday 23rd September 2014
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Boom. A new GT86 size chunk of Tesco at 196p. Done. Tell me I'm wrong.

Shnozz

27,472 posts

271 months

Tuesday 23rd September 2014
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catfood12 said:
Boom. A new GT86 size chunk of Tesco at 196p. Done. Tell me I'm wrong.
I shall henceforth call you Mr Catfood Bigballs.

What wrapper did you use to buy that many shares?! Or did you have a swollen ISA from previous years that has enough space to spend £25k within it?

Luke.

10,991 posts

250 months

Tuesday 23rd September 2014
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catfood12 said:
Boom. A new GT86 size chunk of Tesco at 196p. Done. Tell me I'm wrong.
I'll keep an eye on this one. Almost tempted to buy now at 194.50.

TheLordJohn

5,746 posts

146 months

Tuesday 23rd September 2014
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Luke. said:
I'll keep an eye on this one. Almost tempted to buy now at 194.50.
I'd wait until sub 190...

g4ry13

16,975 posts

255 months

Tuesday 23rd September 2014
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Mal001 said:
g4ry13 said:
I am considering them, but am very concerned the final dividend is going to be slashed. That will obviously impact the share price.

For now i'm just going to sit tight on my very speculative oil play which is slowly coming good.
Speaking of oilies, do you know much about Tullow? I've watched them for a while and then stopped, looking recently they've fallen through the floor to about £6.50 from £14.

From what I can see there is problems in Uganda?

My other oil play, Aminex seem to be coming along though.
Afraid I don't know much about Tullow. Other than what i've caught in the papers.

Yes, i've been looking at Aminex - thought about it but I have SOLO from back in the day and it's also starting to come good. SOLO & Aminex are kind of linked together with the Tanzania stuff but it seems Aminex has a bit more moving it at the moment with their other news. It'll be an interesting 6 weeks for us.

g4ry13

16,975 posts

255 months

Tuesday 23rd September 2014
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Does anyone regularly play the IPO game?

I've not really messed around with it much, with the exception of Royal Mail and that was because it was printing money.

K12beano

20,854 posts

275 months

Wednesday 24th September 2014
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Mal001 said:
My other oil play, Aminex seem to be coming along though.
Hmm - I'd been keeping an eye on them, think I may have missed that boat: was expecting something there.

Generally I am trawling round for good shares, but probably funds to spread risk a bit further, with an African focus for next ten years.

Mining/resources seems obvious, but what other ideas should I consider?

Mal001

1,379 posts

228 months

Wednesday 24th September 2014
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I have mostly Oil shares as our business is heavily connected in that area. Lots of drilling and potential to come around Africa I think.

I'm hoping Aminex will claw back some losses on other shares, mainly Range Resources and Oilex, which has also picked up lately. I also sold out of Amerisur way too early but might buy back in if it slides a little more.

The others I have long term are BT and British Gas both a bit boring but BT at least seems to be heading in the right direction.
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