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Yup well into damage limitation, don't think were quite at all out panic but were close, worse still this move continues and I can see margin calls kicking in all over the place. Already a few brokers were upping margin requirements late last week,
Overvalued companies have had it this earnings season if they don't report outstanding numbers, Nflx smashed after hours, Amazon, Tesla, Gopro I'm betting they're next.
Kicking myself a bit for getting sucked into this last rally, have shorted this market on all the last few dips and been toasted each time so the one time I don't get short, the market tanks..typical.
Thing is it's a difficult place to be right now you don't want to short in the hole because if we rip from here the shorts have had it, but at the same time the fact we can't rally from very oversold conditions is not a good sign at all. Best thing is probably to sit this market out until you get a proper signal.
Wake up call for me though should this turn out to be a dip, I'll be selling all long positions if theres any left hah, into the next move up, everyone likes to think they can ride the market and get out before the top but that's next to impossible. Looking at it objectively we've had quite the run on this bull market and were probably towards the latter stages if i miss the last few rallies I'm not fussed. Don't wanna get caught long when everyone decides to run for the exit.
Overvalued companies have had it this earnings season if they don't report outstanding numbers, Nflx smashed after hours, Amazon, Tesla, Gopro I'm betting they're next.
Kicking myself a bit for getting sucked into this last rally, have shorted this market on all the last few dips and been toasted each time so the one time I don't get short, the market tanks..typical.
Thing is it's a difficult place to be right now you don't want to short in the hole because if we rip from here the shorts have had it, but at the same time the fact we can't rally from very oversold conditions is not a good sign at all. Best thing is probably to sit this market out until you get a proper signal.
Wake up call for me though should this turn out to be a dip, I'll be selling all long positions if theres any left hah, into the next move up, everyone likes to think they can ride the market and get out before the top but that's next to impossible. Looking at it objectively we've had quite the run on this bull market and were probably towards the latter stages if i miss the last few rallies I'm not fussed. Don't wanna get caught long when everyone decides to run for the exit.
Edited by twinturboz on Thursday 16th October 12:23
tfest of bad news all in one go.Shaoxter said:
2 pieces of brilliant investment advice right there.
Its having the cojones to stick money in at 2009 panic levels when all others are buying sovs, but those that did nearly doubled up in 4 years
DSLiverpool said:
Its having the cojones to stick money in at 2009 panic levels when all others are buying sovs, but those that did nearly doubled up in 4 years
What about those that thought its only a loss when I sell and it will be back up soon. Pretty sure they didn't do so well during that crash. Some things still haven't recovered their pre 2009 price today. Nflx what happened to all those upgrades and $600 price targets, didn't goldman upgrade it a few weeks ago. Another reason why you don't believe the crap that comes out these analysts, feel sorry for the retail players who follow the advice of upgrades blindly.
Edited by twinturboz on Thursday 16th October 13:17
twinturboz said:
DSLiverpool said:
Its having the cojones to stick money in at 2009 panic levels when all others are buying sovs, but those that did nearly doubled up in 4 years
What about those that thought its only a loss when I sell and it will be back up soon. Pretty sure they didn't do so well during that crash. Some things still haven't recovered their pre 2009 price today. I cant be doing with research into specific companies unless it interests me or I know of them / trade with them so I just try to ride the boom bust in a very broad brush tracker style.
Recent volatility has been a godsend for anyone with available funds.
Managed to top up my LGO position today @3.2. Never thought I'd see that SP again. Fundamentals haven't changed. Current SP has sod all to do with the company. Overall very happy with this opportunity. Pity the day traders though (or not!).
Managed to top up my LGO position today @3.2. Never thought I'd see that SP again. Fundamentals haven't changed. Current SP has sod all to do with the company. Overall very happy with this opportunity. Pity the day traders though (or not!).
Fittster said:
What fundamentals are drawing you to LGO? No yield, profit, etc. Most of the normal ratios to value a company look pretty dire.
Maiden profit will be 2015. 1st pad results have been several times what was originally anticipated. Trinity-Innis purchase soon to add to SP (another Goudron). Next pad completion and into production by year end (pad aiming at same fault). Revised CPR to come by Jan will mean significant rerate. Excellent netback price. And that's not even counting the 2015 drilling campaign, Cedros or Spain.SP will be a healthy double figure number this time next year. LGO is now a full on producer, with several thousand more bopd to come from Goudron alone. It has become my main holding over the course of this year. And I plan to hold for at least another 2yrs min.
These markets conditions in equity arnt really about equity, its about the health of southern europe and the potential world effects.
The last few days has seen incredible volatility in sovereign debt. Greek 10y bond at a shade under 8.7%, thats up over 2% in a week, for example. There are political fall out worries for southern europe and everything is getting smashed because of it. The bund has seen incredible moves, and massive gapping. This has spooked core markets and led to a massive de-risking for main funds.
This could get a lot worse, it could rebound. Thats the hard bit to grasp (guess), but its going to be messy and volatile for a bit i would think.
This is not a microeconomic move, so dont get caught up sweating the details, its pointless.
The last few days has seen incredible volatility in sovereign debt. Greek 10y bond at a shade under 8.7%, thats up over 2% in a week, for example. There are political fall out worries for southern europe and everything is getting smashed because of it. The bund has seen incredible moves, and massive gapping. This has spooked core markets and led to a massive de-risking for main funds.
This could get a lot worse, it could rebound. Thats the hard bit to grasp (guess), but its going to be messy and volatile for a bit i would think.
This is not a microeconomic move, so dont get caught up sweating the details, its pointless.
Edited by gibbon on Thursday 16th October 20:58
Yup I guess the worrying thing is we're getting this spooked on the just the thought of the eurozone getting weaker, imagine if Germany actually goes into recession or the eurozone starts to breakup or certain countries default. Do the Ecb or the Fed have any bullets left apart from QE to infinity.
In 2008 we were talking about too big to fail companies, next crisis surely will be a sovereign debt crisis and I don't mean small countries like Greece or Iceland.
On another note earnings so far are hardly backing a bullish thesis. Theme seems to be your getting sold off no matter what you report. Google with a miss tanked but it's bouncing back a bit ah.
In 2008 we were talking about too big to fail companies, next crisis surely will be a sovereign debt crisis and I don't mean small countries like Greece or Iceland.
On another note earnings so far are hardly backing a bullish thesis. Theme seems to be your getting sold off no matter what you report. Google with a miss tanked but it's bouncing back a bit ah.
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