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AOK said:
I have (somewhat rarely!) taken a UK position. Bought a fairly small amount of QPP earlier today at 154p... here goes!
I'm fully prepared to lose it all, but also appreciate that just 3 months ago there was chat of it going north of 600p
Who knows
was 130 the other day.I'm fully prepared to lose it all, but also appreciate that just 3 months ago there was chat of it going north of 600p
Who knows
what about moni?
AOK said:
I have (somewhat rarely!) taken a UK position. Bought a fairly small amount of QPP earlier today at 154p... here goes!
I'm fully prepared to lose it all, but also appreciate that just 3 months ago there was chat of it going north of 600p
Who knows
It has a long way to go but I feel sentiment is changing an we know that the shorts are now closing (or at least the largest short that was over 5% is closing). I'm fully prepared to lose it all, but also appreciate that just 3 months ago there was chat of it going north of 600p
Who knows
I had a massive wobble last week. Wednesday to be exact when I came very close to just selling and moving on in fear that it would be walked down to £1, I walked away from the computer tho and decided to see what happened on Thursday. I know the strategy for holding on hoping things get better is often ridiculed but it is starting to look like it could work out.
CRB14 said:
AOK said:
I have (somewhat rarely!) taken a UK position. Bought a fairly small amount of QPP earlier today at 154p... here goes!
I'm fully prepared to lose it all, but also appreciate that just 3 months ago there was chat of it going north of 600p
Who knows
It has a long way to go but I feel sentiment is changing an we know that the shorts are now closing (or at least the largest short that was over 5% is closing). I'm fully prepared to lose it all, but also appreciate that just 3 months ago there was chat of it going north of 600p
Who knows
I had a massive wobble last week. Wednesday to be exact when I came very close to just selling and moving on in fear that it would be walked down to £1, I walked away from the computer tho and decided to see what happened on Thursday. I know the strategy for holding on hoping things get better is often ridiculed but it is starting to look like it could work out.
I'm firmly in the doubter camp on QPP. I can't get past the fact that the majority of its revenue is taken on an accrual basis (ie, not real yet), and its complicated structure of interrelated companies which have been mainly acquired rather than grown. The whole setup seems opaque
[dragonsdenmode]
and for that reason I'm out.
[/dragonsdenmode]
egomeister said:
AOK, you are far braver than me! I'm not sure I'd give much consideration to what talk said the share price could have risen to in the past. I've not long ago stuck some money in XAR which was 3x it's current price 4 months ago... (not when I bought in though). It's been hammered in recent times due to disappointing trading but prior to this it has been making decent profits in a interesting market sector I can only see growing in the future.
I'm firmly in the doubter camp on QPP. I can't get past the fact that the majority of its revenue is taken on an accrual basis (ie, not real yet), and its complicated structure of interrelated companies which have been mainly acquired rather than grown. The whole setup seems opaque
[dragonsdenmode]
and for that reason I'm out.
[/dragonsdenmode]
There is nothing wrong with accrual based accounting. Many companies will use the same process. I'm firmly in the doubter camp on QPP. I can't get past the fact that the majority of its revenue is taken on an accrual basis (ie, not real yet), and its complicated structure of interrelated companies which have been mainly acquired rather than grown. The whole setup seems opaque
[dragonsdenmode]
and for that reason I'm out.
[/dragonsdenmode]
egomeister said:
AOK, you are far braver than me! I'm not sure I'd give much consideration to what talk said the share price could have risen to in the past. I've not long ago stuck some money in XAR which was 3x it's current price 4 months ago... (not when I bought in though). It's been hammered in recent times due to disappointing trading but prior to this it has been making decent profits in a interesting market sector I can only see growing in the future.
I'm firmly in the doubter camp on QPP. I can't get past the fact that the majority of its revenue is taken on an accrual basis (ie, not real yet), and its complicated structure of interrelated companies which have been mainly acquired rather than grown. The whole setup seems opaque
[dragonsdenmode]
and for that reason I'm out.
[/dragonsdenmode]
I hear ya, I hear ya!I'm firmly in the doubter camp on QPP. I can't get past the fact that the majority of its revenue is taken on an accrual basis (ie, not real yet), and its complicated structure of interrelated companies which have been mainly acquired rather than grown. The whole setup seems opaque
[dragonsdenmode]
and for that reason I'm out.
[/dragonsdenmode]
This purchase very much falls into the high-risk/gut-instinct/theory-out-of-the-window/gambling-kick section of my portfolio! I've set a stop loss at 140 and a sell order for 500. I admire the optimist in me sometimes!
egomeister said:
I appreciate that, I just value actual money over probable money!
A fair comment but it can also work against you with costs payable too. For instance if you didn't accrue a large cost properly on the books and only went by the cash position at a point in time you are in danger of overstating the cash position. Whilst I'm not in a position to say which system suits Quindell some businesses (such as house builders / construction companies) could only work on accrued accounts.
egomeister said:
CRB14 said:
There is nothing wrong with accrual based accounting. Many companies will use the same process.
I appreciate that, I just value actual money over probable money!Even if they do succeed in getting close to their proposed success rates (their recent announcement lowered expectations but only by modest amounts), the % of challenged cases is likely to be relatively high, in which case the timescales to settlement are extended.
All the while they are paying a massive sum to claims farmers for the work so have a large overhead there (not even touching upon what appears to be a clear breach of the referral fee ban), together with a big pay role to cover.
I'm afraid I agree with egomeister, the mixture of accrual based accounting, based on VERY optimistic figures in an area that is renown for slow progress and defended claims, together with the structure of this business make me say I am firmly out. I can see debt increasing at a rapid rate whilst they chase their tale trying to match revenue (real revenue, as in cash coming in) with high outgoings. All the while somehow circumventing the referral fee ban.
Hearing loss claims are often vehemently disputed. The defence of them can be complex as the injury is cumulative so the liability can be split over several defendant employers. In turn, each of the defendants can have different insurance companies spanning the years during which the Claimant says he was exposed. All of those insurers on risk must liaise, together with insurers for any other defendants, in order to consider just 1 claim.
If anyone here has dealt with a singular insurer from something as simplistic as a minor RTA, you will know how hard it can be to progress a claim. Now imagine 5 or 6 insurers, dealing with a far more complex case, the liability of which is alleged to be 10 - 20 years ago and records to be located and the response to a claim being coordinated among them.
Now look at the timescales proposed between QPP paying for a new claim and turning that to cash.
The only tool a Claimant lawyer has to hasten the recovery is by issuing Court proceedings. Not only does that give rise to additional costs risk if the case were to fail, but also anyone who has dealt with a Court case will know that they too are hardly grease lightning in their glacial pace.
For the record, I should state that I was formerly in QPP, and indeed was the PHer who first drew this thread's attention to them. But that was when they were at about 8p in "old money" and were building quite a clever infrastructure of businesses whereby they would clearly gain market share and take a cut of profits across the entire process. I felt they were undervalued and could be a big player in the industry, when tighter margins limited profitability but would see many competitors simply unable to compete without the scale of business that QPP was looking to operate, taking small profits but in multiple arenas, none of which the competitors had really constructed.
Now, however, my concerns relate more to the business structure and my dislike of the banking of profits which seem wildly optimistic. Those outside of the business would know no different, but to me they are so adrift of industry figures that they simply seem pie in the sky. And yet they are already in the books.
QPP may turn out to be a big success, and to some extent they already have a market share, WIP and a chunk of ongoing work that means they cannot simply fail. However, I think the results that will come through, at least for the next 18 months or so, will prove less magical than anticipated (although not if the accrual method "anticipates" even bigger made up returns down the line!!), but the real issue to me will be keeping cash flow sufficient or being able to raise borrowings or share capital to keep the wheels in motion.
Now, however, my concerns relate more to the business structure and my dislike of the banking of profits which seem wildly optimistic. Those outside of the business would know no different, but to me they are so adrift of industry figures that they simply seem pie in the sky. And yet they are already in the books.
QPP may turn out to be a big success, and to some extent they already have a market share, WIP and a chunk of ongoing work that means they cannot simply fail. However, I think the results that will come through, at least for the next 18 months or so, will prove less magical than anticipated (although not if the accrual method "anticipates" even bigger made up returns down the line!!), but the real issue to me will be keeping cash flow sufficient or being able to raise borrowings or share capital to keep the wheels in motion.
trashbat said:
There's high risk, and then there's actually setting fire to your money.
I think you're daft, but your stop loss should mitigate it. Unless it goes bust.
I can't see a stop working on Quindell. The Scenario if it gets bad will be wake up one morning and it's at zero, there will be no inbetween I doubt. I think you're daft, but your stop loss should mitigate it. Unless it goes bust.
marky1 said:
I can't see a stop working on Quindell. The Scenario if it gets bad will be wake up one morning and it's at zero, there will be no inbetween I doubt.
Yeah. I think that there are so many retail investors bogged down in it who by now have lost so much money and drank so much Quindell/LSE chat Kool-Aid that they won't exit on anywhere near the current level. That itself is a kind of fundamental support that won't see it slowly dwindle, and the only thing that will really break it is serious bad news or it going bust, a big reality sledgehammer to crack it.The same thing probably also puts the brakes on a limit sell, unless it's really conservative, because many - albeit a subset of the above - will be waiting to get out of the sorry affair as soon as there's sufficient rays of sunshine. That's harder to predict but 500p is never ever going to happen.
If you look at other businesses that have taken a share price hit on bad news or doubt, like Chemring last year, then generally someone comes along to either shake things up (e.g. a CEO change) and/or with an interest in taking over the company (e.g. Carlyle Group in the case of CHG), even if it doesn't materialise. The fact that neither has even been rumoured is kind of interesting.
I agree with Shnozz but I think he's being charitable. At what point is it a knowing fraud instead of an optimistic venture?
gaz1234 said:
what happened to wrn?
Got suspended a few weeks ago. Havent tried to find out why. Dont think anyone knows yet.For the record, I wouldnt touch QPP with a bargepole.
When it crashed last time the price flew straight down and hurdled over my stop loss without triggering. I guess that they couldnt even be sold at the price due to the price taking SO quickly.
Ended up losing a hell of a lot but got a few quid out on a subsequent spike to 25p'ish - that is still 405 in todays money! A long way to go to get to where they were pre-Gotham - 645p.
Edited by vescaegg on Wednesday 22 October 13:02
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