Share tips thread

[MrCippo]

keeping an eye on BPC too, might be an interesting prospect.

Just out of curiosity, i'm a noob in this, but how much would you invest for a start in a company ? I understand it would be how much you have etc. But how much would you put in as a minimum for a good tip ?

[matsmith]

Thanks Dibbly

cymtriks- I use technical analysis for trading, and for shares (as opposed to indexes and commodities) I do check out the fundamentals just to see if the technical analysis makes sense

The most basic fundamentals that imo you should be looking at is their PE past and forecast, how their balance sheet looks and their NAV.

Banks dont tend to trade on huge PE ratios like tech and oil companies tend to, so NAV becomes a bit more relevant

In 2007 Lloyds had 5637 million shares in issue, today they have 68,074 million shares in issue, hence why comparing their past and present market cap is more relevant than the share price (again in my opinion ofcourse)

So the market cap of Lloyds is only around 30% lower than the combined market caps of Lloyds and HBOS when they were at their peak, and only about 20% lower than the VWAP calculated market cap for the year


Fittster- without wanting to blow my own trumpet (toot toot) I feel my thread "the ewt thread" may provide some evidence that it can work

[NoelWatson]

matsmith said:

cymtriks- I use technical analysis for trading

Has it been proven the TA can possibly work?

[Fittster]

matsmith said:

Fittster- without wanting to blow my own trumpet (toot toot) I feel my thread "the ewt thread" may provide some evidence that it can work

Well I had a quick look at that thread:

matsmith said:

currently own:

lloyds @ 61p, target 83p
rbs @ 36p, target 75p (as long as we dont go below 35, if we go below 35 then 25 is highly likely, and from there my target will be 65)
gulf keystone @ 6p, target 27p
taylor wimpey @ 29p, target 55p
vodafone @ 118p, target 159p
old mutual @ 65p, target 83p
victoria oil & gas @ 3p, target either 80p long term but short term about 20p (prepared to take nothing on these, its play money but the profit, if any, will see me back in the 911 owners club)


looking to get back in to max petroleum (my favorite co) @ around 15p, and the target from there will be 45p - 50p

I don't think those prove Technical Analysis is effective.

Edited by Fittster on Friday 17th September 20:27

[cymtriks]

matsmith said:

---interesting stuff---

In 2007 Lloyds had 5637 million shares in issue, today they have 68,074 million shares in issue, hence why comparing their past and present market cap is more relevant than the share price (again in my opinion ofcourse)

So there are, assuming I've not misunderstood or you haven't pressed the wrong keys, over eleven times as many shares as two years ago? That goes a very long way to explaning the share prices, it just hadn't occured to me that this would have changed so much.

[NoelWatson]

http://www.fsponline-recommends.co.uk/page.aspx?u=...

[T5SOR]

MrCippo said:

keeping an eye on BPC too, might be an interesting prospect.

Just out of curiosity, i'm a noob in this, but how much would you invest for a start in a company ? I understand it would be how much you have etc. But how much would you put in as a minimum for a good tip ?

They certianly are one to watch for the future. I think their license is still suspended though, as they were 2.5p not long ago. I'm suprised they are back to 4.0p!

One for now has to be GKP. Massive upside from 137p. Once they finish drilling they could have anywhere from 40-100 billion barrels of oil!

YELL always seem to drift then rise strongly too.

My list:

GKP (Holding)
XEL
SEY (Sold last week)
BPC
YELL
LLOY

[DomBertone]

T5SOR said:

MrCippo said:

keeping an eye on BPC too, might be an interesting prospect.

Just out of curiosity, i'm a noob in this, but how much would you invest for a start in a company ? I understand it would be how much you have etc. But how much would you put in as a minimum for a good tip ?

They certianly are one to watch for the future. I think their license is still suspended though, as they were 2.5p not long ago. I'm suprised they are back to 4.0p!

One for now has to be GKP. Massive upside from 137p. Once they finish drilling they could have anywhere from 40-100 billion barrels of oil!

YELL always seem to drift then rise strongly too.

My list:

GKP (Holding)
XEL
SEY (Sold last week)
BPC
YELL
LLOY

Im in GKP and XEL too. will surely be our turn soon.

[matsmith]

cymtriks said:

matsmith said:

---interesting stuff---

In 2007 Lloyds had 5637 million shares in issue, today they have 68,074 million shares in issue, hence why comparing their past and present market cap is more relevant than the share price (again in my opinion ofcourse)

So there are, assuming I've not misunderstood or you haven't pressed the wrong keys, over eleven times as many shares as two years ago? That goes a very long way to explaning the share prices, it just hadn't occured to me that this would have changed so much.

Yes cymtriks there are actually 12 times the number of Lloyds shares now compared to two years ago

Hi Noel, I dont know what proof your after. The analysis provided in my thread gave me a decent profit for the year. But I dont think its my place to try and prove it to you, if you dont think that one can be profitable using technical analysis then as long as we live in a free world you have the right to continue believing that however- if we do get FTSE sub 2550 would that then sway you to having some belief that EWT can work?

Fittster if you have any genuine interest in learning about whether TA can be used successfully then I suggest reading through the entire thread. Im sure as a sceptic youl look for the few that havent happened precisely as I said but overall it provided me with some very profitable analysis

[NoelWatson]

matsmith said:

Hi Noel, I dont know what proof your after. The analysis provided in my thread gave me a decent profit for the year. But I dont think its my place to try and prove it to you, if you dont think that one can be profitable using technical analysis then as long as we live in a free world you have the right to continue believing that however- if we do get FTSE sub 2550 would that then sway you to having some belief that EWT can work?

All I'm saying is that I am very surprised that the banks/hedge funds are leaving money on the table for the likes of you to pick up. In my mind it is about as plausible as Brown claiming the UK had low debt.
Having said that, if you were to give daily predictions for the FTSE (binary up/down) and could do this over a period of time, outperfomring random guessing, I will change my tune!

[Mulder]

Another GKP'er here, hopefully should see alot more soon though really pleased this last week.

Is anyone here in VST?

[matsmith]

NoelWatson said:

matsmith said:

Hi Noel, I dont know what proof your after. The analysis provided in my thread gave me a decent profit for the year. But I dont think its my place to try and prove it to you, if you dont think that one can be profitable using technical analysis then as long as we live in a free world you have the right to continue believing that however- if we do get FTSE sub 2550 would that then sway you to having some belief that EWT can work?

All I'm saying is that I am very surprised that the banks/hedge funds are leaving money on the table for the likes of you to pick up. In my mind it is about as plausible as Brown claiming the UK had low debt.
Having said that, if you were to give daily predictions for the FTSE (binary up/down) and could do this over a period of time, outperfomring random guessing, I will change my tune!

If I thought it were possible to give that sort of prediction using my type of TA then id do it, but im not capable of that. For the FTSE I trade medium term trends not intraday.

[NoelWatson]

matsmith said:

NoelWatson said:

matsmith said:

Hi Noel, I dont know what proof your after. The analysis provided in my thread gave me a decent profit for the year. But I dont think its my place to try and prove it to you, if you dont think that one can be profitable using technical analysis then as long as we live in a free world you have the right to continue believing that however- if we do get FTSE sub 2550 would that then sway you to having some belief that EWT can work?

All I'm saying is that I am very surprised that the banks/hedge funds are leaving money on the table for the likes of you to pick up. In my mind it is about as plausible as Brown claiming the UK had low debt.
Having said that, if you were to give daily predictions for the FTSE (binary up/down) and could do this over a period of time, outperfomring random guessing, I will change my tune!

If I thought it were possible to give that sort of prediction using my type of TA then id do it, but im not capable of that. For the FTSE I trade medium term trends not intraday.

Could you give weekly/monthly FTSE predictions?

[Fittster]

matsmith said:

Fittster if you have any genuine interest in learning about whether TA can be used successfully then I suggest reading through the entire thread. Im sure as a sceptic youl look for the few that havent happened precisely as I said but overall it provided me with some very profitable analysis

We can go to the actual academic papers if you wish but for a start:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis#Em...

[cocopop]

Another oiler I picked up on over the weekend is Cadogan Petroleum, or CAD. They have licenses in Ukraine which have been in dispute for a while, now resolved, and being made official on 6th Oct. To me they look undervalued, so have bought in to see if I can't take a bit of a quick profit. Nothing major though.

This is in no way a tip, and I'm just as likely to have it wrong, but just one I noticed while looking for potential buys.

[DonkeyApple]

NoelWatson said:

matsmith said:

Hi Noel, I dont know what proof your after. The analysis provided in my thread gave me a decent profit for the year. But I dont think its my place to try and prove it to you, if you dont think that one can be profitable using technical analysis then as long as we live in a free world you have the right to continue believing that however- if we do get FTSE sub 2550 would that then sway you to having some belief that EWT can work?

All I'm saying is that I am very surprised that the banks/hedge funds are leaving money on the table for the likes of you to pick up. In my mind it is about as plausible as Brown claiming the UK had low debt.
Having said that, if you were to give daily predictions for the FTSE (binary up/down) and could do this over a period of time, outperfomring random guessing, I will change my tune!

They leave plenty of money on the table as well as creating opportunities that can be used. I wouldn't take them on at their own game but conversely they are too big to get involved in my game.

Having said that, all this trading in crappy mining stocks and other small caps is total waste of time and money.

You need to play the big liquid markets but by diving in and taking a small part of a trend that is already taking place. Lowest risk plus lowest cost gives you the best opportunity for positive returns.

TA is bumkum on its own but valuable to assist in isolating events and setting parameters.

[NoelWatson]

DonkeyApple said:

I wouldn't take them on at their own game but conversely they are too big to get involved in my game.

But surely you are then up against the one man bands running models from their spreadsheets, such as

http://epchan.blogspot.com/

[DonkeyApple]

NoelWatson said:

DonkeyApple said:

I wouldn't take them on at their own game but conversely they are too big to get involved in my game.

But surely you are then up against the one man bands running models from their spreadsheets, such as

http://epchan.blogspot.com/

2 Sav Blancs down so here goes:

First, I'm not sure I understand the point.

Am I meant to know Ernie Chan? Is he a big swinging dick? He appears to be just another chap who is trying to sell a book and associated products?

I have an office in the City which just houses PCs running glorified spreadshhets, but on areas which the big money can't get into.

One example: investment trusts. Illiquid, can;'t be bought is size so generally left to pension/ISA funds etc. NAV of constituents fluctuates by the second but the market price while logically correlated isn't allways.

ITs publish their constituents and weightings, which allows you to build a true, live, realtime NAV.

IT's nearly allways trade at a discount to NAV, but the level of this discount varies.

As you can monitor the precise real NAV you can also monitor the precise live discount.

As such, when the live discount steps away from the average discount all you need to do is work out why.

In 90% of the cases you'll see an increase in vol on one side of the book and this is a near perfect indication that a fund is buying a position of value. The fun here is trying to find the IT that they are often switching out of at the same time as that side is even better.

What this tells you is that when the volume spike on the buy or sell side stops you can step in and trade the discount disparity. You can even hedge it against comparable indices.

It does work very well but we monitor over 1000 ITs (and equivs) and none of them can be traded in size without taking time so big funds cannot do what we do but at the same time it is their actions which is creating out opportunity.

So, one massive nerd + an Excel spreadsheet + money can = returns.

[ringram]

150% return so far on SOLG for me.
Pity I only put a £1k gamble on it. Still it may well tank big time.

[bogie]

the usual oilies for me

and also SXX (potash) and LYC (Aus mining rare earths)

nothing life changing, I only invest as a hobby with the odd spare grand here and there into low cap stuff ...whatever I make is money for toys