Share tips thread
Discussion
torqueofthedevil said:
looking at patterns etc. but surely the general price that the share is approximately sitting at, is supposed to be a reflection of what that company is worth
Yes, sometimes, but only if you take 'what a company is worth' to mean more than the sum total of its current bricks, mortar and other assets melted down.Most obviously: how are they going to perform in the future?
(It'd be much easier to illustrate if you could name the thing!)
torqueofthedevil said:
I know the shareprice will be affected by those looking at short term investment - day traders - etc looking at patterns etc. but surely the general price that the share is approximately sitting at, is supposed to be a reflection of what that company is worth - if u take it back to its elements you are buying a share of the company. If that company can't make a profit and continues to fail to make a profit. Then at some point shareholders must begin to deem the business worthless (forgetting some assets and goodwill ect). The company I described looks like this, but it's market capitalisation is still in the 10's of millions.
Companies that make no money are a lot harder to value on fundamentals.What I usually do is try to establish what the likely sustainable margin might be once the business matures - you hinted at 3%.
Then you want to look at the addressable market and decide how much share that business might take of it.
The look at how long it might take to get there and how long you are prepared to wait.
Or as a shortcut just look at similar businesses and the EV/Sales ratio to give you an idea of over/underpricing relative to peers.
I almost NEVER look at the book value of a business (unless its a bank) - I always view that as accounting nonsense.
What matters is how much profit and cash flow a business may eventually throw off - I don't really care how they get there - plenty of companies can be highly profitable with negative equity value.
torqueofthedevil said:
DonkeyApple said:
I'm not entirely sure I understand.
For example, who is 'they'?
It's the shareholders who define one value by the mid price between what buyers and sellers are willing to offer but that can be wildly different to say the valuation for the whole business. A disparity that increases as free float decreases. And is also a function of who the shareholders are.
So an AIM stock could (and often does) have a valuation defined by its share price which is totally dislocated from say the actual valuation of the business.
Can you explain any more?
Buy "they" I meant shareholders.For example, who is 'they'?
It's the shareholders who define one value by the mid price between what buyers and sellers are willing to offer but that can be wildly different to say the valuation for the whole business. A disparity that increases as free float decreases. And is also a function of who the shareholders are.
So an AIM stock could (and often does) have a valuation defined by its share price which is totally dislocated from say the actual valuation of the business.
Can you explain any more?
I know the shareprice will be affected by those looking at short term investment - day traders - etc looking at patterns etc. but surely the general price that the share is approximately sitting at, is supposed to be a reflection of what that company is worth - if u take it back to its elements you are buying a share of the company. If that company can't make a profit and continues to fail to make a profit. Then at some point shareholders must begin to deem the business worthless (forgetting some assets and goodwill ect). The company I described looks like this, but it's market capitalisation is still in the 10's of millions.
No professional money other than maybe a few long funds blindly throwing in pension money. Market cap almost never reflects true value either way.
Has Musk run off somewhere and forgotten he has an earnings release?
I guess the people who file earnings for tesla ran out of battery life.
edit: Can't believe it's gaining a/h based on that report
Oh well gave me a chance to get short.
So Tesla is going to have a market cap as big as Apple in 10years
I guess the people who file earnings for tesla ran out of battery life.
edit: Can't believe it's gaining a/h based on that report
Oh well gave me a chance to get short.Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 11th February 22:27
So Tesla is going to have a market cap as big as Apple in 10years
Edited by twinturboz on Thursday 12th February 00:56
, currently +10%.Not that I think it means a great deal but AAPL looking very strong in pre-trading. Just to take things off track a little does anyone have any thoughts about the impending HSBC investigation - potential opportunity?
Also, we havnt spoken about oil prices for a while! noticed BP has recovered strongly to 450ish...oh how I wish Id held my nerve at 417! Anyone any views on the future of oilies?
Also, we havnt spoken about oil prices for a while! noticed BP has recovered strongly to 450ish...oh how I wish Id held my nerve at 417! Anyone any views on the future of oilies?
AOK said:
I'm thinking of dipping back into BMW today, as a long term hold, but I would need to wait till the NYSE opens to raise some funds (2.30pm).
It has taken quite a dive the last few weeks, seems to be due to slower growth in China, and forecasts currently range from 82.00 to 120.00.
It's an incredibly stable company over the last 5 years, with a solid EPS. Valuation seems in line with most car companies, but they are leading the way in electric which could be a good earner for them if it picks up before the competition catches up. Not a bad div play either.
Any thoughts?
I bought BMW at 87.00 last year and I'm really happy with it as an investment... it has outperformed my Apple shares in that period. I still see 120.00 as achievable and it will also go ex-Div shortly too. I'm holding for now. It has taken quite a dive the last few weeks, seems to be due to slower growth in China, and forecasts currently range from 82.00 to 120.00.
It's an incredibly stable company over the last 5 years, with a solid EPS. Valuation seems in line with most car companies, but they are leading the way in electric which could be a good earner for them if it picks up before the competition catches up. Not a bad div play either.
Any thoughts?
Lots of new products and they're entering new segments with the 2 Series Active Tourer and 2 Series Gran Tourer (7 seater too). Not saying I like the cars, but they're really cornering every market. Also, I read somewhere they vow to offer a Plug-In hybrid version over every Series by 2018... MINI 5 door now outselling the 3 door (surely mostly customers who would have bought something else) and Rolls Royce sales are at their best for years. Just my 2p.
Still holding BBRY for now although perhaps should have listened to the advise on here a few weeks ago. Still see a turnaround, especially as reviews of the 'Passport' seem good.
Twinturboz ... could now be a good re-entry for TSLA?
AOK said:
could now be a good re-entry for TSLA?
Closed my short at 195 this morning, Surprised it isn't down more to be honest the results weren't great at all and the conference call just sounded like a lot of excuses. Even less convinced about the long term prospects of Tesla after those earnings. Providing your just trading this thing rather than a long term investment.
From the chart, seems to be trading in a channel 220 is the top the channel for now and around 175 is the bottom. I was hoping to close the short around 175 but not to be.
Just my opinion 185 wouldn't be a bad place to try some longs with a 175 stop.
Got into Gpro at 44.50 yesterday lock up is on Tuesday. Same thing as tesla trading in a channel bottom is around 38 top is around 55.
Have one eye on BABA too think it's getting ready to pop soon above 87 and maybe it can start a move into 97.
Edited by twinturboz on Thursday 12th February 16:09
Apple will have a 30-50% decline at some point, it's inevitable. Growth will slow at some point and eventually they'll need to replace the iPhone cash cow. Maybe if the watch doesn't do so well those growth concerns will resurface. But for now seems to me they are firing on all cylinders.
It totally depends on how long your time frame is on this stock, midterm I think a large % of this move has already occurred it's not the same investment it was back in June 13. 5-10 years who knows this could easily double or triple from here providing they continue to innovate and enter new markets.
Looking at it short term it broke out from a base around 120 with volume, maybe it goes to 130-135 before pulling back to currently around the 115 range. I could be talking total rubbish though. Then again should also have an increased dividend and very likely increased buyback in April.
Looks like US markets are going to break to all time highs today, maybe this range we've been in for the last few weeks now resolves, saw a quote from GS that raised an eyebrow "single largest source of buyers right now are corporate buybacks."
It totally depends on how long your time frame is on this stock, midterm I think a large % of this move has already occurred it's not the same investment it was back in June 13. 5-10 years who knows this could easily double or triple from here providing they continue to innovate and enter new markets.
Looking at it short term it broke out from a base around 120 with volume, maybe it goes to 130-135 before pulling back to currently around the 115 range. I could be talking total rubbish though. Then again should also have an increased dividend and very likely increased buyback in April.
Looks like US markets are going to break to all time highs today, maybe this range we've been in for the last few weeks now resolves, saw a quote from GS that raised an eyebrow "single largest source of buyers right now are corporate buybacks."
Edited by twinturboz on Friday 13th February 14:03
twinturboz said:
Apple will have a 30-50% decline at some point, it's inevitable.
5-10 years who knows this could easily double or triple from here providing they continue to innovate and enter new markets.
So the share price will either drop 30-50% or double or triple...you've got all bases covered then! 5-10 years who knows this could easily double or triple from here providing they continue to innovate and enter new markets.
LivingTheDream said:
Anyone watching SOLG?
must be news coming soon!!
Have been invested for over a year now, my average is sat at just over 9p, but when I invested I took the long term view of the project, hence its current value may be a tiny proportion of what the share could be valued at, if you listen to some of the presentations by the BoD, you do get the feeling that they truly believe they have discovered a major find within the cascabel area within Ecuadormust be news coming soon!!
Have a listen to this
http://www.directorstalk.com/nick-mather-executive...
snowy said:
LivingTheDream said:
Anyone watching SOLG?
must be news coming soon!!
Have been invested for over a year now, my average is sat at just over 9p, but when I invested I took the long term view of the project, hence its current value may be a tiny proportion of what the share could be valued at, if you listen to some of the presentations by the BoD, you do get the feeling that they truly believe they have discovered a major find within the cascabel area within Ecuadormust be news coming soon!!
Have a listen to this
http://www.directorstalk.com/nick-mather-executive...
I'm hoping there is a JV agreed to truly open up Cascabel. Concerns are around cost of getting anything out of Cascabel and then how it is funded!!
100% in 2 days does suggest something has been leaked!
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