Share tips thread
Discussion
gregf40 said:
So the share price will either drop 30-50% or double or triple...you've got all bases covered then! 
Well stocks can go either up or down 
. The point I was trying to make is it depends on your timeframe eventually it will do both. The latter caveated by the fact that Apple continues to innovate and provide catalysts for further growth. Apple's chart from when the iPhone was first released back in 07 to now reflects the 4 stages of a stock cycle quite well.
Stage 1 being the consolidation phase. After that 2008 crisis where Apple more or less halved, you could say that from Oct 08- March 09 the stock was consolidating.
Stage 2 the accumulation phase. From March 09- March 12 Apple had massive growth from iPhones, iPods iPads etc, a build up in earnings momentum was occurring and big institutions were buying in.
The stock ramped from around $80 to eventually about $700 where it topped in stage 4.
Stage 3 Distribution. From March 12- Sept 12 the stock was being passed from strong buyers to weaker hands. Smart money saw the decline in earnings coming, the slow down in growth to come and took profits selling into the last stages of strength, the stock had a topping formation.
Stage 4 Capitulation from Sept 12 to Jan 13, the stock declined roughly 50%. Apple started loosing earnings momentum, it missed earnings estimates and we all know how people said the company was dead it had peaked and couldn't innovate etc.
Then it started all over again from Jan 13 to August 13 it was back to stage 1 and was consolidating. From then it broke into stage 2, growth returned and the stock is over double from the bottom of that consolidation phase.
How long will Apple stay in this stage 2 no idea, quite frankly it could carry on running providing they continue to deliver strong earnings, the chart isn't showing any topping signs yet but imo there is bit of the Jonny-come-lately players creeping into the stock, weaker hands who have been attracted to the stock by the headlines or the run it's already had. I have no idea if the long trade has become too crowded yet, but bullishness is way higher than it was even 6 months ago.
What is inevitable is that the next stage is the topping stage and then the decline, by the time Apple actually has a slow down in earnings the smart money will probably be out. So back to my point if your short term minded then those stages are obviously what you want to avoid, ideally you want to be buying the stock as it breaks out into stage 2 and you don't even want to hang about for stage 3.
Like i said I have no idea how long this stage lasts but we've already doubled, the question is, if your just starting to buy Apple now how much of stage 2 is left? If you have a 5-10 yr outlook then you really don't care your most likely happy to ride it out and let the cycle start all over again. Most long term Apple share holders have probably ridden the cycle once or twice already provided they could withstand the last decline and not get shaken out, if they managed that then you can't argue that those who bought 5 years ago or earlier have done very well out of that strategy.
None of these 4 stages help you to time an entry or exit just helps you to have a larger picture on where the stock is in the cycle. You'd have to break down stage 2 in far more detail in terms of moving averages, bases etc to help pinpoint an entry or exit.
In short though, Apple isn't even anywhere near testing the long term uptrend, does look a bit overbought short term though.
Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 17th February 13:55
twinturboz said:
Well stocks can go either up or down . The point I was trying to make is it depends on your timeframe eventually it will do both. The latter caveated by the fact that Apple continues to innovate and provide catalysts for further growth.
Apple's chart from when the iPhone was first released back in 07 to now reflects the 4 stages of a stock cycle quite well.
Stage 1 being the consolidation phase. After that 2008 crisis where Apple more or less halved, you could say that from Oct 08- March 09 the stock was consolidating.
Stage 2 the accumulation phase. From March 09- March 12 Apple had massive growth from iPhones, iPods iPads etc, a build up in earnings momentum was occurring and big institutions were buying in.
The stock ramped from around $80 to eventually about $700 where it topped in stage 4.
Stage 3 Distribution. From March 12- Sept 12 the stock was being passed from strong buyers to weaker hands. Smart money saw the decline in earnings coming, the slow down in growth to come and took profits selling into the last stages of strength, the stock had a topping formation.
Stage 4 Capitulation from Sept 12 to Jan 13, the stock declined roughly 50%. Apple started loosing earnings momentum, it missed earnings estimates and we all know how people said the company was dead it had peaked and couldn't innovate etc.
Then it started all over again from Jan 13 to August 13 it was back to stage 1 and was consolidating. From then it broke into stage 2, growth returned and the stock is over double from the bottom of that consolidation phase.
How long will Apple stay in this stage 2 no idea, quite frankly it could carry on running providing they continue to deliver strong earnings, the chart isn't showing any topping signs yet but imo there is bit of the Jonny-come-lately players creeping into the stock, weaker hands who have been attracted to the stock by the headlines or the run it's already had. I have no idea if the long trade has become too crowded yet, but bullishness is way higher than it was even 6 months ago.
What is inevitable is that the next stage is the topping stage and then the decline, by the time Apple actually has a slow down in earnings the smart money will probably be out. So back to my point if your short term minded then those stages are obviously what you want to avoid, ideally you want to be buying the stock as it breaks out into stage 2 and you don't even want to hang about for stage 3.
Like i said I have no idea how long this stage lasts but we've already doubled, the question is, if your just starting to buy Apple now how much of stage 2 is left? If you have a 5-10 yr outlook then you really don't care your most likely happy to ride it out and let the cycle start all over again. Most long term Apple share holders have probably ridden the cycle once or twice already provided they could withstand the last decline and not get shaken out, if they managed that then you can't argue that those who bought 5 years ago or earlier have done very well out of that strategy.
None of these 4 stages help you to time an entry or exit just helps you to have a larger picture on where the stock is in the cycle. You'd have to break down stage 2 in far more detail in terms of moving averages, bases etc to help pinpoint an entry or exit.
In short though, Apple isn't even anywhere near testing the long term uptrend, does look a bit overbought short term though.
Forget that. How's your go pro, bro?. The point I was trying to make is it depends on your timeframe eventually it will do both. The latter caveated by the fact that Apple continues to innovate and provide catalysts for further growth. Apple's chart from when the iPhone was first released back in 07 to now reflects the 4 stages of a stock cycle quite well.
Stage 1 being the consolidation phase. After that 2008 crisis where Apple more or less halved, you could say that from Oct 08- March 09 the stock was consolidating.
Stage 2 the accumulation phase. From March 09- March 12 Apple had massive growth from iPhones, iPods iPads etc, a build up in earnings momentum was occurring and big institutions were buying in.
The stock ramped from around $80 to eventually about $700 where it topped in stage 4.
Stage 3 Distribution. From March 12- Sept 12 the stock was being passed from strong buyers to weaker hands. Smart money saw the decline in earnings coming, the slow down in growth to come and took profits selling into the last stages of strength, the stock had a topping formation.
Stage 4 Capitulation from Sept 12 to Jan 13, the stock declined roughly 50%. Apple started loosing earnings momentum, it missed earnings estimates and we all know how people said the company was dead it had peaked and couldn't innovate etc.
Then it started all over again from Jan 13 to August 13 it was back to stage 1 and was consolidating. From then it broke into stage 2, growth returned and the stock is over double from the bottom of that consolidation phase.
How long will Apple stay in this stage 2 no idea, quite frankly it could carry on running providing they continue to deliver strong earnings, the chart isn't showing any topping signs yet but imo there is bit of the Jonny-come-lately players creeping into the stock, weaker hands who have been attracted to the stock by the headlines or the run it's already had. I have no idea if the long trade has become too crowded yet, but bullishness is way higher than it was even 6 months ago.
What is inevitable is that the next stage is the topping stage and then the decline, by the time Apple actually has a slow down in earnings the smart money will probably be out. So back to my point if your short term minded then those stages are obviously what you want to avoid, ideally you want to be buying the stock as it breaks out into stage 2 and you don't even want to hang about for stage 3.
Like i said I have no idea how long this stage lasts but we've already doubled, the question is, if your just starting to buy Apple now how much of stage 2 is left? If you have a 5-10 yr outlook then you really don't care your most likely happy to ride it out and let the cycle start all over again. Most long term Apple share holders have probably ridden the cycle once or twice already provided they could withstand the last decline and not get shaken out, if they managed that then you can't argue that those who bought 5 years ago or earlier have done very well out of that strategy.
None of these 4 stages help you to time an entry or exit just helps you to have a larger picture on where the stock is in the cycle. You'd have to break down stage 2 in far more detail in terms of moving averages, bases etc to help pinpoint an entry or exit.
In short though, Apple isn't even anywhere near testing the long term uptrend, does look a bit overbought short term though.
Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 17th February 13:55
AOK said:
Forget that. How's your go pro, bro?
Go go gpro 
. Was looking at some stats over the weekend 67% of the float is short 
Moved my stops up figure maybe we can get to 55 and see what happens from there a close above 49.20 would be positive. In an ideal world maybe it can do what twitter did after the lockup expired. Cynical hat on let see if we get a surprise catalyst this week, don't believe the upgrade this morning was a coincidence. Also the borrow fee seems to have rocketed this morning to about 78%.
Baba kind of worked when it triggered above that $87 but failed to really break out and go I ended up stopped out in the 88's
Not much else on eyeing Tesla for a short if it breaks 200.
Amazon with hindsight got out way too early after earnings around 360 ended up 380ish friday not chasing it here, could do with a pull back too.
Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 17th February 19:21
Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 17th February 19:27
Not sure if it's really a 'share tip' as such but Assetz Capital are raising money through Seedrs - as a big fan of P2P lending I believe this could be an interesting opportunity.
They are one of the biggest players in a market which is growing rapidly (and IMO will continue to do so).
I am currently an early investor in LandBay and think I will also be putting money into this as well over the next couple of days.
https://www.seedrs.com/startups/assetz-capital
They are one of the biggest players in a market which is growing rapidly (and IMO will continue to do so).
I am currently an early investor in LandBay and think I will also be putting money into this as well over the next couple of days.
https://www.seedrs.com/startups/assetz-capital
gregf40 said:
Not sure if it's really a 'share tip' as such but Assetz Capital are raising money through Seedrs - as a big fan of P2P lending I believe this could be an interesting opportunity.
Out of interest is there any history of people "exiting" investments with Seedrs?I know it talks about IPOs or future investors buying stakes as an exit but has this ever happened to understand the process?
traxx said:
Out of interest is there any history of people "exiting" investments with Seedrs?
I know it talks about IPOs or future investors buying stakes as an exit but has this ever happened to understand the process?
The platform hasn't really been going long enough to see any exit activity - at least from none of the companies I have invested in. Seedrs only really became well known towards the end of 2013.I know it talks about IPOs or future investors buying stakes as an exit but has this ever happened to understand the process?
I know lots of companies have received VC and institutional funding after raising on Seedrs at valuations many times higher than originally funded at - which is clearly a promising sign.
LandBay, for example, just raised £1.5m at a valuation 3 times higher than what I invested at in the Summer.
I think you need to go in with your eyes open, diversify, and expect to wait 3-5 years before any possibility of IPO or take over.
Hope that helps.
gregf40 said:
Not sure if it's really a 'share tip' as such but Assetz Capital are raising money through Seedrs - as a big fan of P2P lending I believe this could be an interesting opportunity.
They are one of the biggest players in a market which is growing rapidly (and IMO will continue to do so).
I am currently an early investor in LandBay and think I will also be putting money into this as well over the next couple of days.
https://www.seedrs.com/startups/assetz-capital
With regard to Assetz Capital, what is it that makes them different to all the others in this ever more crowded market?They are one of the biggest players in a market which is growing rapidly (and IMO will continue to do so).
I am currently an early investor in LandBay and think I will also be putting money into this as well over the next couple of days.
https://www.seedrs.com/startups/assetz-capital
whoami said:
gregf40 said:
Not sure if it's really a 'share tip' as such but Assetz Capital are raising money through Seedrs - as a big fan of P2P lending I believe this could be an interesting opportunity.
They are one of the biggest players in a market which is growing rapidly (and IMO will continue to do so).
I am currently an early investor in LandBay and think I will also be putting money into this as well over the next couple of days.
https://www.seedrs.com/startups/assetz-capital
With regard to Assetz Capital, what is it that makes them different to all the others in this ever more crowded market?They are one of the biggest players in a market which is growing rapidly (and IMO will continue to do so).
I am currently an early investor in LandBay and think I will also be putting money into this as well over the next couple of days.
https://www.seedrs.com/startups/assetz-capital
The risk of these crowd funding vehicles is that they will be being used in the same way as AIM is by many companies. Just a mechanism to raise finance every couple of years to keep paying salaries.
bad company said:
NORTS said:
What's everyone's thoughts on National Grid? Seem to be going one way at the moment.
The yield is the obvious attraction but interested to hear opinions about any growth prospects.This clearly led to me leaving a bunch of cash on the table because that is the most insanely straight line up chart for the 5yr I have ever seen. Damn!
walm said:
bad company said:
NORTS said:
What's everyone's thoughts on National Grid? Seem to be going one way at the moment.
The yield is the obvious attraction but interested to hear opinions about any growth prospects.This clearly led to me leaving a bunch of cash on the table because that is the most insanely straight line up chart for the 5yr I have ever seen. Damn!
However many of the big US utilities (like NEE) have almost recovered their losses
For what its worth I think that no matter what the BoE says I think any move up in interest rates is going to kill the UK economy, they know it which is why all this rate hike talk is all just hot air- if you take that view then the yield looks attractive
Then again if Labour/SNP look like winning in May - I would just sell everything and get the money out of the country to somewhere safe
traxx said:
so as Go-Pro was yesterdays topic
What do we think after today 8% move down?
That it's a schizophrenic stock What do we think after today 8% move down?
I got stopped out 48.60 this morning, trader's regret should have cut and run with 50ish yesterday. I don't know, on one hand if it turns out to be an inside day today then you could argue it's kind of positive but volume today is already higher than yesterday with a few hours of trading left and no way it finishes green today so that's hardly positive.
The way this stock acts could be back to 50 tomorrow or dump below last weeks low of 42. Tough stock to trade.
Might take a much smaller position this time around if it comes into the 45's today, purely as a trade.
Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 18th February 19:15
traxx said:
so as Go-Pro was yesterdays topic
What do we think after today 8% move down?
That it's a schizophrenic stock What do we think after today 8% move down?
I got stopped out 48.60 this morning, trader's regret should have cut and run with 50ish yesterday. I don't know, on one hand if it turns out to be an inside day today then you could argue it's kind of positive but volume today is already higher than yesterday with a few hours of trading left and no way it finishes green today so that's hardly positive.
The way this stock acts could be back to 50 tomorrow or dump below last weeks low of 42. Tough stock to trade.
Might take a much smaller position this time around if it comes into the 45's today, purely as a trade.
Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 18th February 19:15
walm said:
bad company said:
NORTS said:
What's everyone's thoughts on National Grid? Seem to be going one way at the moment.
The yield is the obvious attraction but interested to hear opinions about any growth prospects.This clearly led to me leaving a bunch of cash on the table because that is the most insanely straight line up chart for the 5yr I have ever seen. Damn!
king idiot, just buy the fking dip! gaz1234 said:
Thoughts on qpp?
nothing positive. It's been a bit of a master class in watching hedge funds spank the absolute crap out of retail punters by predictive obvious 'herd' actions and trading them. Looks like the latest one has been Martin Hughes ripping them a new one. Dirty business.
And on top of that you have an Aussie firm aiming to be No1 ambulance chaser in the UK which means taking on QPP so squeezing their margins. It looks like the Aussie outfit are cash rich and taking share while QPP seems cash poor and losing share.
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