Share tips thread

[walm]

DoubleSix said:

Not traded ARM in the last few years then?

Short only.
Lost money.

Not saying my rules always work! They just save you some heartache.

ARM has been a superstar because smartphone estimates have been blown out of the water (owing to both iPhone and Android success) over the last few years.
My thesis was that the growth rate was naturally slowing as smartphones hit 50% of all new phones sold they can't double in volumes again!
But now every man and their dog is signing up to IoT which allows them to put up silly unit forecasts.

Will short again sometime I suspect.

Also got nailed slightly by the incredible multiple re-rating across the market over the last 6 months.
That will always help a spivvy tech stock.

[DoubleSix]

walm said:

DoubleSix said:

Not traded ARM in the last few years then?

Short only.
Lost money.

Not saying my rules always work! They just save you some heartache.

ARM has been a superstar because smartphone estimates have been blown out of the water (owing to both iPhone and Android success) over the last few years.
My thesis was that the growth rate was naturally slowing as smartphones hit 50% of all new phones sold they can't double in volumes again!
But now every man and their dog is signing up to IoT which allows them to put up silly unit forecasts.

Will short again sometime I suspect.

Also got nailed slightly by the incredible multiple re-rating across the market over the last 6 months.
That will always help a spivvy tech stock.

I don't really disagree, just being cheeky RE ARM

IoT certainly 'hot right now' and Apple looking to diversify chip sets so make of that what you will!

[walm]

DoubleSix said:

I don't really disagree, just being cheeky RE ARM

IoT certainly 'hot right now' and Apple looking to diversify chip sets so make of that what you will!

It's a great point though. They are an amazing company. I felt bad shorting to be honest!

[*Badger*]

*Badger* said:

My IPO in TSB certainly looking very strong today, bought in at £2.60 now sitting at £3.30 after a takeover bid by some Spanish bank. Shame ithe IPO was limited to £2000 each, but still over 25% profit to sell now. Tempting, but there's an additional 5% of shares if you hold for a year, which is coming up in June.

Thoughts? Sell now or wait it out?

Took my money and ran. A nice 25% profit after selling fee's.

[traxx]

Back on the subject of Apple suppliers - anyone know how much of their sales Qualcomm will lose if as reported Apple will stop using their chips later this year?

[trashbat]

I sold out of Fiat just now, on the basis that you can't keep going up in silly increments without actual tangible news.

132% profit in EUR terms, a bit less when back in GBP.

One to watch.

[*Badger*]

I'm going to sell a small personal holding I have on TALKTALK today as they are at the 52 week high. Around 20% gain on these.

I also have staff holdings making even more but I can't access them yet so I'll leave them. Our shares can be quite volatile so I will buy back in when they drop again as I am fairly used to the pattern now and expect they'll continue to do the same, a short of sorts, but its a 6 month short rather than a day short.

QPP up 23% again today, the shorter's have made a few quid there!

[Oakey]

QPP has been a bit too stable this last month so it's probably about time it starts acting like it's usual erratic self. Don't be surprised if todays 28% gain plunges 50% tomorrow. It's the QPP model!

[twinturboz]

Gopro think it's finally bottomed, well it broke the downtrend at least. I know not everyone's favourite stock but could be a nice return in the short term. Will have to see if it can continue to rise over the coming few sessions.

Apple doing much better since the recent pull back, close to breaking out of a bull flag on the weekly charts.

[walm]

twinturboz said:

Gopro think it's finally bottomed, well it broke the downtrend at least. I know not everyone's favourite stock but could be a nice return in the short term. Will have to see if it can continue to rise over the coming few sessions.

Damn - I should have taken my own advice from early Jan.

walm said:

andrewh said:

Looks like gopro is in trouble because it is a one-hit wonder in the midst of an almighty bubble.

FTFY

Sure the stock could go to the moon and back but I can guarantee that the day GPRO miss a revenue target is the day to sell everything you own and put 100% of the capital to work shorting the crap out of it.

[AOK]

AOK said:

AOK said:

BMW stuff

Getting close to 120 today. Don't know whether to stay firm with my decision to ride it to 120, or cancel the sell order and keep going! :/

They will shortly announce a plug in hybrid version of their X5 apparently... and China is recovering apparently. I also imagine, due to the low Euro value they are exporting loads at the moment. Wait lists on X3's are November 2015! They must be doing something right

Should have stuck with my gut and sold at 120! Fallen 5.5% today after earnings release... although everything I've read in the release appears good?! Maybe it's because they've announced the dividend so the share price is naturally adjusting?

[trashbat]

If you're paying out a dividend, you're distributing some of the capital of the company, so the share price falls by almost exactly the same proportion.

[walm]

trashbat said:

If you're paying out a dividend, you're distributing some of the capital of the company, so the share price falls by almost exactly the same proportion.

Yes - but announcing a dividend is not going ex-div. That comes later.

The market chatter on autos is: best performing sector YTD and people are profit taking yesterday and today.
For BMW specifically: "cautious tone over profits".

Buy on rumour - sell on news, I would call it!

[trashbat]

Ah, fair enough.

[AOK]

Thanks. That makes sense.

Reading into it a bit more I've noticed they are cautious about the unpredictable economic climate and see China slowing down.

Sorry for a stupid question, but how do I work out when a company goes ex-div? At this stage I think it would be best for me to hold BMW until I qualify for the dividend, and then sell at that stage depending where the SP is at. Or is it safer just to wait until I see the dividend payment show in my account and then sell?

[walm]

AOK said:

Sorry for a stupid question, but how do I work out when a company goes ex-div? At this stage I think it would be best for me to hold BMW until I qualify for the dividend, and then sell at that stage depending where the SP is at. Or is it safer just to wait until I see the dividend payment show in my account and then sell?

Not a stupid question at all.
The date isn't set yet AFAIK - they vote on it at the AGM and seem to go ex-div the day after that (always mid-May some time).
This year's AGM is 13 May, which would imply ex-div 14 May.

Now there are a couple of things that happen that people don't typically understand with divs.

Firstly the stock goes ex-div.
On that day the stock will drop (more on that later).
Whoever is on the register at the close the day before well receive the div.
So you are free to sell AND STILL RECEIVE THE DIV just as soon as it goes ex (waiting for the div to appear is pointless, you will get it no matter what as long as you are on the register at the right time).

However, IN THEORY (as Trashbat says) the stock will drop the EXACT SAME AMOUNT AS THE DIV.
So at T-1 you have a share worth 100. Then on ex-div day you have a div payment of say 5 heading your way and a share worth just 95.
So - there is no particular benefit to holding through an ex-div date.

Two further considerations:
Most divs are paid to punters NET of a witholding tax.
Yet typically the share will drop the full GROSS amount.
So you would receive 4.5 (if the WHT is 10%) into your account while the share drops to 95 and hence you are worse off.
However to counter that - for psychological reasons quite often a share will recover quite quickly back up to its price before the dividend happened (called the cum-div price).
People are used to it trading around 100 so are happy to buy it back up to there.
The PE multiple will look better at 95 so again they will see better value and bid it back up.

If I still think the stock is good value and has a chunky dividend I will quite often hold through the div in order to benefit from the typical post-div recovery.
However, in this case you are looking at a 2.90 div on a 116 stock (which moved 4.80 just today) so you can see that the daily volatility easily swamps the div.

If you were already tempted to get out of the stock - I wouldn't let the dividend influence me one way or the other in this case.

[AOK]

Walm, that was hugely helpful and the clearest explanation I've seen. I now understand what goes on behind the scenes perfectly.

Interesting to note about the fact that regular punters like me get the net amount so loose out slightly.

I first mentioned BMW on here in November last year and I bought in at circa 85c. I set 120 as my target back then... so its not that I feel there's no more upside, I just told myself that would be the point where I should lock in the profits and start somewhere else.

Another factor I need to consider is GBP/EUR rate... If it is at an all time high and could get back down to 1.25 in 3 months time, then actually so long as the BMW share price is above 104c it is still better for me to hold on than to sell now at 116!

My original reasons to buy BMW are still there so I think I'll hold for now and raise my target to 140 and I won't let the ex-div date play as a factor (as you have made me realise it is a largely irrelevant case of 'swings and roundabouts').

Thanks again Walm

Edited by AOK on Wednesday 18th March 13:16

[rpla102]

What do people think about RDSB?

I bought at 20.60 the other day. Seems to be moving in the right direction after hovering at around the 52 week low for a while.

[walm]

No probs.
It's pretty tough for even institutions to avoid dividend witholding tax - it's not just punters!

[twinturboz]

walm said:

twinturboz said:

Gopro think it's finally bottomed, well it broke the downtrend at least. I know not everyone's favourite stock but could be a nice return in the short term. Will have to see if it can continue to rise over the coming few sessions.

Damn - I should have taken my own advice from early Jan.

walm said:

andrewh said:

Looks like gopro is in trouble because it is a one-hit wonder in the midst of an almighty bubble.

FTFY

Sure the stock could go to the moon and back but I can guarantee that the day GPRO miss a revenue target is the day to sell everything you own and put 100% of the capital to work shorting the crap out of it.

Yup for sure, although they didn't miss a revenue target plus borrow rate was eye watering at that stage, guess that doesn't matter if your spread betting. Seems to have been a lot of insider dumping after the lock up expiry in any case hardly investment material more a trading vehicle.