Share tips thread
Discussion
I'm a QPP shareholder with more than I am comfortable with invested given current situation (30% of my investment fund).....
This company is not good for your health! My average per share is £1.04 - I'm going to stick with it for a little while, yes I know, I know.
Negatives
Core companies are non-profit making!
Current cash burn stated in recent accounts as between 12 & 22 million per annum depending on how your read them...
Stated no likely change in income for 2015 year and hence no reduction in cash-burn (suspect may be increased with required company investment)
SFO investigation
FCA investigation
No chief exec
Currently no indication of business sales and no stated expectations (I wonder why...?)
No clear development plan stated
Still have not managed to appoint a new Broker
£1 per share payback - the company are deliberately underplaying the likelihood that this will be prevented
Remaining company divisions only small with currently high overheads
Positives
No debt
Previous board are history! Respected board in place
£535 million in cash in the bank (as of May 2015)
£55 million in escrow for S&G deal (£5 million due back in November this year, rest November 2016) - S&G repeatedly state happy with deal and done their own DD
NIHL income from S&G stated as being expected £40 million - say maybe £5-10 million
Value in existing non-core companies (solely those that are profit making!) - £10-20 million
Initial FRC investigation satisfied after re-statement of accounts
Have considered no value in existing core companies - suspect they are worth something
Some of the negatives I'm fairly positive will be overcome shortly e.g. CEO and Broker which may lift price a bit.
Profitability / cash burn are for me the current main concerns - can it be turned-around? It's certainly a growing market area, a lot will depend on the ability of the new CEO. Not that unusual for companies to be non-profit making but jeez QPP do not have a good track record!
Average length of SFO / FCA investigations is 4-6 years to complete - they also don't have a great track record. Briefly looked at their past investigations and they seem to focus on directors e.g. sending them to jail - I hope!
This company is not good for your health! My average per share is £1.04 - I'm going to stick with it for a little while, yes I know, I know.
Negatives
Core companies are non-profit making!
Current cash burn stated in recent accounts as between 12 & 22 million per annum depending on how your read them...
Stated no likely change in income for 2015 year and hence no reduction in cash-burn (suspect may be increased with required company investment)
SFO investigation
FCA investigation
No chief exec
Currently no indication of business sales and no stated expectations (I wonder why...?)
No clear development plan stated
Still have not managed to appoint a new Broker
£1 per share payback - the company are deliberately underplaying the likelihood that this will be prevented
Remaining company divisions only small with currently high overheads
Positives
No debt
Previous board are history! Respected board in place
£535 million in cash in the bank (as of May 2015)
£55 million in escrow for S&G deal (£5 million due back in November this year, rest November 2016) - S&G repeatedly state happy with deal and done their own DD
NIHL income from S&G stated as being expected £40 million - say maybe £5-10 million
Value in existing non-core companies (solely those that are profit making!) - £10-20 million
Initial FRC investigation satisfied after re-statement of accounts
Have considered no value in existing core companies - suspect they are worth something
Some of the negatives I'm fairly positive will be overcome shortly e.g. CEO and Broker which may lift price a bit.
Profitability / cash burn are for me the current main concerns - can it be turned-around? It's certainly a growing market area, a lot will depend on the ability of the new CEO. Not that unusual for companies to be non-profit making but jeez QPP do not have a good track record!
Average length of SFO / FCA investigations is 4-6 years to complete - they also don't have a great track record. Briefly looked at their past investigations and they seem to focus on directors e.g. sending them to jail - I hope!
Edited by robt350c on Friday 7th August 11:10
trashbat said:
Let's gloss over that I think you're mad.
I hope you have a plan. Do you? What is it?
Most crucially, at what price, time or after what event will you say, "nope, time to get out of this"?
If you can't answer that, you're chasing after a loss in pursuit of purely speculative hope.
Yes, you're going to love this :-)I hope you have a plan. Do you? What is it?
Most crucially, at what price, time or after what event will you say, "nope, time to get out of this"?
If you can't answer that, you're chasing after a loss in pursuit of purely speculative hope.
My plan medium-term is to swap to RBS!
I think the price has currently found a fairly solid base around the 80-90 mark and is unlikely to reduce very quickly with current cash reserves (always some risk that it might!). In the mean time I'm going to sit tight and await the new Broker, CEO and AGM on the 2nd September, and just see how it goes. Would like to get a bit higher than my average share price or nearer to it than currently, depending on how things develop during the next three months or so.
In fairness - stock was at 130p pre-SFO, FCA and restatements (that everyone knew were coming).
SFO and FCA take ages, will be forgotten and are more about the now ancient history.
The restatements genuinely ARE history.
So what's changed that might impact the FUTURE worth of QPP?
Anything?
I guess there is a risk that the shareholder lawsuit will bankrupt them, but that risk was always there.
I guess I am just puzzled why the implied post-£1 cap return the stock was worth 30p.
30p is over £100m for POS divisions burning cash.
And those divisions are still there.
WTF?
SFO and FCA take ages, will be forgotten and are more about the now ancient history.
The restatements genuinely ARE history.
So what's changed that might impact the FUTURE worth of QPP?
Anything?
I guess there is a risk that the shareholder lawsuit will bankrupt them, but that risk was always there.
I guess I am just puzzled why the implied post-£1 cap return the stock was worth 30p.
30p is over £100m for POS divisions burning cash.
And those divisions are still there.
WTF?
robt350c said:
Yes, you're going to love this :-)
My plan medium-term is to swap to RBS!
I think the price has currently found a fairly solid base around the 80-90 mark and is unlikely to reduce very quickly with current cash reserves (always some risk that it might!). In the mean time I'm going to sit tight and await the new Broker, CEO and AGM on the 2nd September, and just see how it goes. Would like to get a bit higher than my average share price or nearer to it than currently, depending on how things develop during the next three months or so.
Fair enough, so looking for an exit then. I don't know much about the detail of RBS but even in its parlous current state, it has a half tangible business and a potential restructuring tale to tell, unlike QPP which seems to be a full on basket case.My plan medium-term is to swap to RBS!
I think the price has currently found a fairly solid base around the 80-90 mark and is unlikely to reduce very quickly with current cash reserves (always some risk that it might!). In the mean time I'm going to sit tight and await the new Broker, CEO and AGM on the 2nd September, and just see how it goes. Would like to get a bit higher than my average share price or nearer to it than currently, depending on how things develop during the next three months or so.
A 15% drop is unremarkable in the face of what you could lose - and what people have lost - on QPP, sometimes in a single day, so given the risk, I'd be trying hard to ignore that as a factor, much less a goal.
The bit of your post I put in bold, in the cold light of day, is wishful thinking - and by that, I don't mean that it definitely won't happen, I mean that it's not a proper narrative. "QPP returns to Rob's average price" is never going to be a headline in the FT. Specific events and sentiments may happen to take it back there, or they might not, and you need to judge what those things would be and whether they are likely enough to justify the risk.
trashbat said:
air enough, so looking for an exit then. I don't know much about the detail of RBS but even in its parlous current state, it has a half tangible business and a potential restructuring tale to tell, unlike QPP which seems to be a full on basket case.
A 15% drop is unremarkable in the face of what you could lose - and what people have lost - on QPP, sometimes in a single day, so given the risk, I'd be trying hard to ignore that as a factor, much less a goal.
The bit of your post I put in bold, in the cold light of day, is wishful thinking - and by that, I don't mean that it definitely won't happen, I mean that it's not a proper narrative. "QPP returns to Rob's average price" is never going to be a headline in the FT. Specific events and sentiments may happen to take it back there, or they might not, and you need to judge what those things would be and whether they are likely enough to justify the risk.
I'm always looking at an exit point for all my shares, just that could be short, medium or long-term and varies all the time depending on news etc. I wouldn't describe QPP as a full-on basket case as it does have the positives I detailed above - there are companies in significantly worse financial positions and a lot of its issues are now historical! High-risk though, hell yes!A 15% drop is unremarkable in the face of what you could lose - and what people have lost - on QPP, sometimes in a single day, so given the risk, I'd be trying hard to ignore that as a factor, much less a goal.
The bit of your post I put in bold, in the cold light of day, is wishful thinking - and by that, I don't mean that it definitely won't happen, I mean that it's not a proper narrative. "QPP returns to Rob's average price" is never going to be a headline in the FT. Specific events and sentiments may happen to take it back there, or they might not, and you need to judge what those things would be and whether they are likely enough to justify the risk.
I could and should have sold at £1.30 level but that's all good with the benefit of hindsight and I do beat myself up about that (I'm an idiot!)... This is just the reality of trading from time to time that I've come to painfully accept - though I've never made a loss yet, maybe this will be the one!!!! I believe currently though QPP has a good risk balance with respect to retrieving my loss and potentially a bit more.
With respect to the remaining companies I also wouldn't describe them as a dead-loss. They do have potential in that they are embedded in the US, Canada and UK in a high-growth business area and in addition to existing contracts currently have four pilots underway with insurers in the US. Should they acquire new contracts I think this would lift the share price fairly quickly - this could certainly happen as could increases in sales with existing contracts (might not happen also of course!). They also own / have stakes in some good profit making companies.
Appreciate all the negative perspectives as this helps balance my viewpoint.
Shareprice currently up :-) Now watch it fall!!!
robt350c said:
trashbat said:
air enough, so looking for an exit then. I don't know much about the detail of RBS but even in its parlous current state, it has a half tangible business and a potential restructuring tale to tell, unlike QPP which seems to be a full on basket case.
A 15% drop is unremarkable in the face of what you could lose - and what people have lost - on QPP, sometimes in a single day, so given the risk, I'd be trying hard to ignore that as a factor, much less a goal.
The bit of your post I put in bold, in the cold light of day, is wishful thinking - and by that, I don't mean that it definitely won't happen, I mean that it's not a proper narrative. "QPP returns to Rob's average price" is never going to be a headline in the FT. Specific events and sentiments may happen to take it back there, or they might not, and you need to judge what those things would be and whether they are likely enough to justify the risk.
I'm always looking at an exit point for all my shares, just that could be short, medium or long-term and varies all the time depending on news etc. I wouldn't describe QPP as a full-on basket case as it does have the positives I detailed above - there are companies in significantly worse financial positions and a lot of its issues are now historical! High-risk though, hell yes!A 15% drop is unremarkable in the face of what you could lose - and what people have lost - on QPP, sometimes in a single day, so given the risk, I'd be trying hard to ignore that as a factor, much less a goal.
The bit of your post I put in bold, in the cold light of day, is wishful thinking - and by that, I don't mean that it definitely won't happen, I mean that it's not a proper narrative. "QPP returns to Rob's average price" is never going to be a headline in the FT. Specific events and sentiments may happen to take it back there, or they might not, and you need to judge what those things would be and whether they are likely enough to justify the risk.
I could and should have sold at £1.30 level but that's all good with the benefit of hindsight and I do beat myself up about that (I'm an idiot!)... This is just the reality of trading from time to time that I've come to painfully accept - though I've never made a loss yet, maybe this will be the one!!!! I believe currently though QPP has a good risk balance with respect to retrieving my loss and potentially a bit more.
With respect to the remaining companies I also wouldn't describe them as a dead-loss. They do have potential in that they are embedded in the US, Canada and UK in a high-growth business area and in addition to existing contracts currently have four pilots underway with insurers in the US. Should they acquire new contracts I think this would lift the share price fairly quickly - this could certainly happen as could increases in sales with existing contracts (might not happen also of course!). They also own / have stakes in some good profit making companies.
Appreciate all the negative perspectives as this helps balance my viewpoint.
Shareprice currently up :-) Now watch it fall!!!
I was in QPP from about 300 to 600 last year and got out just after the original Gotham report came out and it tanked. Got out on the bounce at 405 and have watched it fall ever since. Since I got out, only bad things have come out about the company. Bad after bad after bad.
People need to keep away from this.
The internet boards are frankly scary. So much delusion. So so much f
king delusion. Ozzie Osmond said:
I'll file that politely in what might be euphemistically known as "propaganda"So - the alternative is to advocate a tracker? And, for example, how about a nice "safe" little FTSE tracker going nowhere currently with mining stocks and supermarkets taking a pounding? Right!
I don't dispute that you can make some statistics add up to some "shocking" headline, but trying to sell me something off the back of a selective and sensationalist take .....
How do you feel about Tesla stock at the moment?
Major downturn or minor correction until Model X is out? I've been thinking of entering tesla even though the fundamentals are what they are.
I feel like they are doing a lot of things right, approaching the car from a "silicon valley" angle, which is something the big car companies seem to struggle.
Major downturn or minor correction until Model X is out? I've been thinking of entering tesla even though the fundamentals are what they are.
I feel like they are doing a lot of things right, approaching the car from a "silicon valley" angle, which is something the big car companies seem to struggle.
K12beano said:
I'll file that politely in what might be euphemistically known as "propaganda"
So - the alternative is to advocate a tracker? And, for example, how about a nice "safe" little FTSE tracker going nowhere currently with mining stocks and supermarkets taking a pounding? Right!
Sure it is propaganda. However sometimes propaganda is right.So - the alternative is to advocate a tracker? And, for example, how about a nice "safe" little FTSE tracker going nowhere currently with mining stocks and supermarkets taking a pounding? Right!
How on earth should a retail investor hope to compete with investors who have access to management, access to the sell side, access to expert networks, access to bespoke market research etc.... who spend 24/7 researching their investment ideas and STILL UNDERPERFORM??
Retail investors are quite rightly derided and laughed at.
Not because they can't be intelligent but simply because they don't have the time, the resources or the experience.
The sort of experience that might let them take 2 minutes to check the ACTUAL performance of a subset of the FTSE they were going to be rude about...
SBRY is up 7% YTD.
TSCO is up 12% YTD.
MRW is up 1% YTD.
Not including their divs.
But you know... DYOR!
What are people's thoughts on Oil & Gas related shares at the moment? Obviously it may be a few years until oil prices go up, and until then a lot of companies are going to be doing plenty of cost-cutting. But i'm tempted to put some money into Tullow Oil, BP, Weir etc now whilst they're the cheapest they've been for a while, and sit it out for 2-3 years.
Greshamst said:
What are people's thoughts on Oil & Gas related shares at the moment? Obviously it may be a few years until oil prices go up, and until then a lot of companies are going to be doing plenty of cost-cutting. But i'm tempted to put some money into Tullow Oil, BP, Weir etc now whilst they're the cheapest they've been for a while, and sit it out for 2-3 years.
Ok, so you have the opinion that the underlying resource is going nowhere anytime soon. You also acknowledge that now it is all about surviving the cash burn. So where exactly is the logic in investing money at this moment in time? Because they are cheaper than they were yesterday is the absolute exact reason to not be going long.
DonkeyApple said:
Greshamst said:
What are people's thoughts on Oil & Gas related shares at the moment? Obviously it may be a few years until oil prices go up, and until then a lot of companies are going to be doing plenty of cost-cutting. But i'm tempted to put some money into Tullow Oil, BP, Weir etc now whilst they're the cheapest they've been for a while, and sit it out for 2-3 years.
Ok, so you have the opinion that the underlying resource is going nowhere anytime soon. You also acknowledge that now it is all about surviving the cash burn. So where exactly is the logic in investing money at this moment in time? Because they are cheaper than they were yesterday is the absolute exact reason to not be going long.
I just increased my holding in both.
Video on the big four (Amazon, Facebook, Apple, Google) with some bold statements. Presenter is somewhat annoying but may have a point.
https://youtu.be/XCvwCcEP74Q
https://youtu.be/XCvwCcEP74Q
Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff