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A lot of the rationales on here are a bit odd! 
I'm sure I read someone saying it's "always worth adding if you already own" or something like that a few pages back...
Anyway today is a good day. Had my portfolios long LOOK and EZJ so I am a hero for the day. Some nice calls makes a change.
I'm sure I read someone saying it's "always worth adding if you already own" or something like that a few pages back...
Anyway today is a good day. Had my portfolios long LOOK and EZJ so I am a hero for the day. Some nice calls makes a change.
Burwood said:
anyone who shorts netflix is a complete moron. It may have a high PE but it's growth rate is extreme. At least pick a stock with a higher PE, plenty out there.
Bloomberg were reporting this morning about how both Amazon and Apple were moving into the "content" market - the $64m question is "are netflix big enough to withstand them?"walm said:
Assuming you mean Citron - I haven't seen that!?
Also Burwood, I wouldn't short NFLX but your rationale is odd.
There is a right price for everything.
Just because something is growing fast you can still do fundamental valuation work on it.
Yep I do mean Citron.Also Burwood, I wouldn't short NFLX but your rationale is odd.
There is a right price for everything.
Just because something is growing fast you can still do fundamental valuation work on it.
Burwood said:
anyone who shorts netflix is a complete moron. It may have a high PE but it's growth rate is extreme. At least pick a stock with a higher PE, plenty out there.
Not blowing my own trumpet but I did short a load of Netflix a few weeks back now and did well out of it. PE has nothing to do with shorting, they key with momentum stocks like nflx is to recognise when they've gone parabolic and only short then, my reason for shorting Amba a few months back was exactly the same, a parabolic pattern will always come down sharpish but there is significant risk in timing the short right. Uvxy is another that looked parabolic and that was my reason for shorting yesterday will see how that pans out.
Would I short Nflx here ? Fundamentally maybe, increasing competition now, also this is a company which has cashflow issues they will need to raise cash at some point, should the market continue to move to the downside and if fundamentals become at the forefront of investors minds, stocks like this will get crushed.
From technicals there's no way I'd short it here at this price, in fact I just took some long yesterday at 102ish looks like it might be completing a 5th wave down and if so there is probably a $30-$40 move out of this.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Insiders+Blog/Netflix...
In fact IF this is just a correction there are some great looking set ups, Google looks like could do $850, Apple looks good for a breakout above 112.50, Chipotle looks like new highs coming, Fb again if it can move then new highs to come.
Edited by twinturboz on Thursday 3rd September 12:56
Burwood said:
anyone who shorts netflix is a complete moron. It may have a high PE but it's growth rate is extreme. At least pick a stock with a higher PE, plenty out there.
I'm not so sure about that. It's a small company that is burning cash so as to reach enough market share to be profitable. If investors start to think it won't reach that critical mass then they'll stip funding it. And the likes of Amazon and Apple are so much larger than Netflix (they have cash deposits that dwarf Netflix's entire market cap) that they have to be taken very seriously as a threat to wipe out Netflix's chance of ever being a profitable business. They've defined and proven the market and now we are entering the phase where the massive players decide they need to get into the space. As such there is a real risk that one of them will buy out Netflix or it just implodes as it fails to secure enough money to keep buying content to battle for market share.
It seems quite easy to see the argument for shorting it as valid.
Someone was on about Amberella the other day, doesn't look to bad here ~$70ish providing it can start to show a bottomming pattern.
I should probably add I haven't taken a look at the fundamentals so no idea on the long term prospects, purely just looking at a trade looks oversold in the short term but until it proves a pattern it's just knife catching.
I should probably add I haven't taken a look at the fundamentals so no idea on the long term prospects, purely just looking at a trade looks oversold in the short term but until it proves a pattern it's just knife catching.
Edited by twinturboz on Friday 4th September 14:03
DonkeyApple said:
Burwood said:
anyone who shorts netflix is a complete moron. It may have a high PE but it's growth rate is extreme. At least pick a stock with a higher PE, plenty out there.
I'm not so sure about that. It's a small company that is burning cash so as to reach enough market share to be profitable. If investors start to think it won't reach that critical mass then they'll stip funding it. And the likes of Amazon and Apple are so much larger than Netflix (they have cash deposits that dwarf Netflix's entire market cap) that they have to be taken very seriously as a threat to wipe out Netflix's chance of ever being a profitable business. They've defined and proven the market and now we are entering the phase where the massive players decide they need to get into the space. As such there is a real risk that one of them will buy out Netflix or it just implodes as it fails to secure enough money to keep buying content to battle for market share.
It seems quite easy to see the argument for shorting it as valid.
0000 said:
Curiously Netflix seem to be admitting as much. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-34167...
I felt that a big driver for Amazon was to fire a big gun in the opening war for eyeballs. Later to the party and with the perceived weaker product but with much more firepower, the TG news gave them the kind of global coverage no marketing budget could achieve. So they've boosted their brand awareness in this market place immensely, across the planet. Then on top of that, it will also Steve Netflix and others of a chunk of next years potential new customers as data shows few consumers run more than 1 subscription service. So what we do know is that Amazon is now gunning directly for Netflix's clients both current and future. And we also know that Amazon could run their venture for a decade without needing a profit, the reality is that they know what % of eyeballs they need to take in order to bleed Netflix out.
red_slr said:
Condor Gold? Thoughts?
At a guess I would assume it's a small cap that was bigged up to private investors via bucket shops during the gold boom and has since had a declining share price and is running out of cash as the Board suck it dry while losing interest before it's flogged as junk?Just a guess based on the name so could be entirely wrong.
DonkeyApple said:
0000 said:
Curiously Netflix seem to be admitting as much. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-34167...
I felt that a big driver for Amazon was to fire a big gun in the opening war for eyeballs. Later to the party and with the perceived weaker product but with much more firepower, the TG news gave them the kind of global coverage no marketing budget could achieve. So they've boosted their brand awareness in this market place immensely, across the planet. Then on top of that, it will also Steve Netflix and others of a chunk of next years potential new customers as data shows few consumers run more than 1 subscription service. So what we do know is that Amazon is now gunning directly for Netflix's clients both current and future. And we also know that Amazon could run their venture for a decade without needing a profit, the reality is that they know what % of eyeballs they need to take in order to bleed Netflix out.
Burwood said:
I don't buy products from nor invest in businesses which are net destructive and that is precisely what Amazon is in my opinion.
You don't buy from Amazon??What??
Why on earth not?
I firmly believe that Ocado will never make money so I specifically ENJOY ordering from them and having my tasty groceries subsidised by foolish shareholders.
Burwood said:
DonkeyApple said:
0000 said:
Curiously Netflix seem to be admitting as much. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-34167...
I felt that a big driver for Amazon was to fire a big gun in the opening war for eyeballs. Later to the party and with the perceived weaker product but with much more firepower, the TG news gave them the kind of global coverage no marketing budget could achieve. So they've boosted their brand awareness in this market place immensely, across the planet. Then on top of that, it will also Steve Netflix and others of a chunk of next years potential new customers as data shows few consumers run more than 1 subscription service. So what we do know is that Amazon is now gunning directly for Netflix's clients both current and future. And we also know that Amazon could run their venture for a decade without needing a profit, the reality is that they know what % of eyeballs they need to take in order to bleed Netflix out.
Netflix is a growth company whose premium rating is defined by user growth. If competitors take future share away then that forward growth rate will be deminished and as a result so will the forward rating. The actual growth as a number doesn't matter. It's whether it meets the targets set by the market, investors and the board and increasing competition from far stronger, cash rich and cash generative firms is a clear risk and why it is far from moronic for someone to short Netflix.
Letting personal views cloud clear judgement is why most retail investors underperform.
walm said:
Burwood said:
I don't buy products from nor invest in businesses which are net destructive and that is precisely what Amazon is in my opinion.
You don't buy from Amazon??What??
Why on earth not?
I firmly believe that Ocado will never make money so I specifically ENJOY ordering from them and having my tasty groceries subsidised by foolish shareholders.
DonkeyApple said:
Burwood said:
DonkeyApple said:
0000 said:
Curiously Netflix seem to be admitting as much. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-34167...
I felt that a big driver for Amazon was to fire a big gun in the opening war for eyeballs. Later to the party and with the perceived weaker product but with much more firepower, the TG news gave them the kind of global coverage no marketing budget could achieve. So they've boosted their brand awareness in this market place immensely, across the planet. Then on top of that, it will also Steve Netflix and others of a chunk of next years potential new customers as data shows few consumers run more than 1 subscription service. So what we do know is that Amazon is now gunning directly for Netflix's clients both current and future. And we also know that Amazon could run their venture for a decade without needing a profit, the reality is that they know what % of eyeballs they need to take in order to bleed Netflix out.
Netflix is a growth company whose premium rating is defined by user growth. If competitors take future share away then that forward growth rate will be deminished and as a result so will the forward rating. The actual growth as a number doesn't matter. It's whether it meets the targets set by the market, investors and the board and increasing competition from far stronger, cash rich and cash generative firms is a clear risk and why it is far from moronic for someone to short Netflix.
Letting personal views cloud clear judgement is why most retail investors underperform.
Burwood said:
My point is neither Neflix or Amazon need to make a penny to appreciate in value. Vanity numbers such as subscriber numbers and revenues is all that seems to matter.
Your view kind of contradicts against going short the stock. As you quite rightly stated this stock is priced on subscriber numbers and the future growth of those, go back 2/3 quarters they barely missed market expectations for sub numbers and if I recall correctly the market punished them down some $110.With increasing competition from cash rich companies, the fact that content costs are rising how will Netflix continue to grow those numbers? They are burning through cash as it is, with the clever accounting they have, most of their content obligation isn't even on the books. At some point they need to raise cash or increase subscriber costs, if that happens would you continue to subscribe to Netflix if subscription doubles to £10 - £15 a month?
Another factor to add Netflix is moving away from the big name films/ series and pursuing original content are consumers willing to subscribe to a service where they can't see the latest films/ popular series? I'll accept some of their original content so far has been well received i.e. house of cards etc
Finally imo the type of trader/investor buying or holding Netflix at this price is well aware it's overvalued, the game being we will sell our stake onto the next mug before the bubble bursts like Dk says once the outlook starts to look like the growth is plateauing or worse starts to decline 1/4 on 1/4 there will be a rush to the exits.
Be interesting to see if Apple says anything about Apple tv come tomorrow and what effect that will have on Netflix share price.
Overall market wise everyone still going with this is a market correction? Personally I'm starting to lean toward this current rally simply being a counter trend rally for sure were not getting a V shaped bounce this time. I guess too early to say if this is the start of a bear market yet but the longer we stay down here without reclaiming key levels the more the evidence starts to lean towards it.
Was going over the charts this looks very similar to 2011 so really hard to call if this is a correction or not but preparing myself for a retest of those "black monday" lows this week or next just in case.
Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 8th September 14:19
What is Netflix data on its millions of users worth?
I suspect knowing who likes what sort of program will become very, very valuable when it comes to targeted marketing, in the future.
Could this be a bit like FB (back in the day) where it is the value of the database that is important?
I suspect knowing who likes what sort of program will become very, very valuable when it comes to targeted marketing, in the future.
Could this be a bit like FB (back in the day) where it is the value of the database that is important?
twinturboz said:
Be interesting to see if Apple says anything about Apple tv come tomorrow and what effect that will have on Netflix share price.
Could be tomorrow, but relatively unlikely.The Apple TV refresh is more certain.
http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/apple/new-apple-tv-...
"What is more generally agreed upon is that some kind of streaming service is in the pipeline, whether we'll see it in September or in the following months."
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