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[DonkeyApple]

dom9 said:

What is Netflix data on its millions of users worth?

I suspect knowing who likes what sort of program will become very, very valuable when it comes to targeted marketing, in the future.

Could this be a bit like FB (back in the day) where it is the value of the database that is important?

Yes. But imagine if they also owned one of the world's largest online shops or one of the world's largest phone companies?

Netflix is just Netflix. But Amazon or Apple have complimentary businesses that mean they can value an eyeball far higher than Netflix.

The Netflix product is arguably a market leader but the might of these other firms has to be seen as a major risk. Afterall we all know that it's never the best product that wins but the product with the best marketing.

[walm]

In fairness, NFLX has 50% penetration in one of the most expensive TV markets in the world - yet it is typically ADDITIONAL to cable. Cord cutting is pretty nascent.

i.e. despite paying the most for TV, yanks are happy to pay EVEN MORE for a NFLX sub.

HOC, OITNB, Daredevil and even Arrested Development make NFLX close to a "must-have" TV service.

PayTV is simply far less penetrated in the rest of the world.
UK is next highest at c.50%+ IIRC vs. the US at 85%.

So the addressable market is lower.
Nevertheless I think we are still at the early adopter phase of NFLX subs internationally.
They can continue to grow extremely fast and rolling out to a new geography is a matter of sitting down in a conference room with guys you already know well and hashing out the content rights.

The more interesting play is whether the success of NFLX, Amazon Video and Apple TV Subscription means that the traditional PayTV players (really Comcast, Sky et al) become simple pipes with no ability to charge for content any more.

And the answer to that probably lies in sports rights negotiations.

Ex-Sports though, the answer is obvious: cut the cord.
As soon as a decent Apple TV product launches I will bin Sky and take NFLX, Amazon Video (through Prime), Apple and NowTV when I need HBO programs if Apple can't offer them (yes, I am looking at you GoT).

[twinturboz]

walm said:

Could be tomorrow, but relatively unlikely.
The Apple TV refresh is more certain.
http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/apple/new-apple-tv-...
"What is more generally agreed upon is that some kind of streaming service is in the pipeline, whether we'll see it in September or in the following months."

Judging by the action in Nflx today if nothing happens tomorrow the stock could pop.

Just doubled checked too, that content obligation that's not on their consolidated balance sheet is a measly $5.7 billion.

Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 8th September 16:08

[walm]

twinturboz said:

Just doubled checked too, that content obligation that's not on their consolidated balance sheet is a measly $5.7 billion.

Hmmm... that's not unusual, IMHO.
I view it as NFLX COGS.

The fact is that VW has to buy steel to make cars, and lots of it. You don't need to capitalise the next 10 years of steel-buying and put it on the balance sheet.

They just buy it every year and expense it and make money by selling cars to people with a margin.

Similarly with NFLX - they push a bunch of content down the pipe and pay their suppliers for that content, while making a margin from their end customers.

[twinturboz]

Have a look at a chart of Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals (TTPH), wow I'm glad I don't touch biotech's, pretty sure Cnbc were pumping this a few weeks back.

[dom9]

twinturboz said:

Have a look at a chart of Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals (TTPH), wow I'm glad I don't touch biotech's, pretty sure Cnbc were pumping this a few weeks back.

To be fair - That does sound like something Jordan Belfont would have punted, back in the day!

[twinturboz]

dom9 said:

To be fair - That does sound like something Jordan Belfont would have punted, back in the day!

Hah true but this stock had $11 million in revenue with market cap of $1.6 billion, most likely a massive margin call on that one.



Not bad from Apple but to sum it up in their words : We can do pretty much the same stuff as before but we have the pencil to do it.

Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 9th September 20:17

[twinturboz]

I must be going crazy taken some Gpro and Amba both look like they could have room to the upside over the next few months.

[Dave350]

HSBC is becoming tempting.

Once the asian market calms down and recovers it could easily go from 500 back to 600ish+

[Dave350]

HSBC is becoming tempting.

Once the asian market calms down and recovers it could easily go from 500 back to 600ish+

[twinturboz]

So does the Fed raise today? I reckon a raise and a dovish statement is probably best for this market.

[EricE]

Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged at Zero-0.25% Target Range

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/...

[gregf40]

Burwood said:

I don't buy products from nor invest in businesses which are net destructive and that is precisely what Amazon is in my opinion.

I'll bite...how is Amazon 'net destructive'?

[Burwood]

gregf40 said:

Burwood said:

I don't buy products from nor invest in businesses which are net destructive and that is precisely what Amazon is in my opinion.

I'll bite...how is Amazon 'net destructive'?

I doubt we will agree, so little point in jousting. Have a good evening Greg

[gregf40]

Burwood said:

I doubt we will agree, so little point in jousting. Have a good evening Greg

I was genuinely intrigued - not in the mood for jousting!

[Greshamst]

Greshamst said:

Another AIM share I like, although very much a 'jam tomorrow' share like a lot of AIM, is Flowgroup.

They make boilers that generate electricity as they heat water, that you can either use to cut down your electricity bills, or sell back to the grid. The company pay you a rebate every month that effectively makes the new boiler free. Units have been tested and approved, and are being installed in May and news is coming out soon about a deal to sell them in europe and America. Currently at 30p, broker views are 90p. If the US and europe deals kick off, potential to be £1-1.50 in a year or 18 months.

This one really didn't work out to well for me. They were around 30p when I posted that, they've now dropped to 10p, and haven't had any positive news in quite a while. I'm glad no-one listened to me! Ah well, AIM is always a bit of fun.

[twinturboz]

Vw could do with a V or W shaped bounce, down 20% so far.

[walm]

twinturboz said:

Vw could do with a V or W shaped bounce, down 20% so far.

So far the market appears to be assuming 100% of the potential fine.
The outstanding question is how much it will cost to put right going forward ON TOP of the potential fine.
Won't help the brand.
Porsche down 50% since April apparently!

[DonkeyApple]

walm said:

twinturboz said:

Vw could do with a V or W shaped bounce, down 20% so far.

So far the market appears to be assuming 100% of the potential fine.
The outstanding question is how much it will cost to put right going forward ON TOP of the potential fine.
Won't help the brand.
Porsche down 50% since April apparently!

Or a high percentage of the fine, a class action from wronged US consumers and a fall in US sales?

I can't imagine anyone is rushing to buy a VAG product in the US today or that VAG owners aren't already wondering how much they've lost in residuals so must sue for?

[twinturboz]

DonkeyApple said:

walm said:

twinturboz said:

Vw could do with a V or W shaped bounce, down 20% so far.

So far the market appears to be assuming 100% of the potential fine.
The outstanding question is how much it will cost to put right going forward ON TOP of the potential fine.
Won't help the brand.
Porsche down 50% since April apparently!

Or a high percentage of the fine, a class action from wronged US consumers and a fall in US sales?

I can't imagine anyone is rushing to buy a VAG product in the US today or that VAG owners aren't already wondering how much they've lost in residuals so must sue for?

Not that I have any interest in investing/trading in Vw, but wonder if this could be a similar opportunity to the deep water horizon, where the immediate panic and subsequent over reaction in shares proved to be a buying opportunity.

Short term yes arguably more pain, possible management change/criminal charges but in the long term I'm sure they'll recover. Probably be all forgotten in a few years time. Does anyone know what % of their earnings come from the US market.