Share tips thread
Discussion
EricE said:
Tempted by VW now, oversold and could see a nice rebound when Winterkorn steps down this week.
I agree, but does it look like their problems are worsening for now? Reminds me of the BP/Deep Water fiasco, did anyone here make the most of that? It was before I paid an interest in things financial...Any other opinions on where the FTSE is heading in the medium term?
OK... advice please (total amateur here)
I bought some penny shares a while back after a tip. GT advanced Technologies fwiw. I paid 34 cents and then watched them fall off a cliff.
Just checked back today and theyre at 45 cents. So, given that this is a small amount of money tied up (a gamble really!) do I:
a) get the hell out
b) buy some more
c) hold and see what happens for the next month or so
?
cheers guys
I bought some penny shares a while back after a tip. GT advanced Technologies fwiw. I paid 34 cents and then watched them fall off a cliff.
Just checked back today and theyre at 45 cents. So, given that this is a small amount of money tied up (a gamble really!) do I:
a) get the hell out
b) buy some more
c) hold and see what happens for the next month or so
?
cheers guys
StangGT said:
OK... advice please (total amateur here)
I bought some penny shares a while back after a tip. GT advanced Technologies fwiw. I paid 34 cents and then watched them fall off a cliff.
Just checked back today and theyre at 45 cents. So, given that this is a small amount of money tied up (a gamble really!) do I:
a) get the hell out
b) buy some more
c) hold and see what happens for the next month or so
?
cheers guys
No problem.I bought some penny shares a while back after a tip. GT advanced Technologies fwiw. I paid 34 cents and then watched them fall off a cliff.
Just checked back today and theyre at 45 cents. So, given that this is a small amount of money tied up (a gamble really!) do I:
a) get the hell out
b) buy some more
c) hold and see what happens for the next month or so
?
cheers guys
Btw Fridays winning lotto numbers are:
4, 16, 21,23, 37, 40
StangGT said:
OK... advice please (total amateur here)
I bought some penny shares a while back after a tip. GT advanced Technologies fwiw. I paid 34 cents and then watched them fall off a cliff.
Just checked back today and theyre at 45 cents. So, given that this is a small amount of money tied up (a gamble really!) do I:
a) get the hell out
b) buy some more
c) hold and see what happens for the next month or so
?
cheers guys
How long is a while back? They have had a rough time to say the least....I bought some penny shares a while back after a tip. GT advanced Technologies fwiw. I paid 34 cents and then watched them fall off a cliff.
Just checked back today and theyre at 45 cents. So, given that this is a small amount of money tied up (a gamble really!) do I:
a) get the hell out
b) buy some more
c) hold and see what happens for the next month or so
?
cheers guys
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gt-advanced-techn...
StangGT said:
DoubleSix said:
No problem.
Btw Fridays winning lotto numbers are:
4, 16, 21,23, 37, 40
I'm more of a euromillions kinda guyBtw Fridays winning lotto numbers are:
4, 16, 21,23, 37, 40
Seriously though, no one can tell you with any worthwhile certainty what the future holds for your shares.
The fortunes of micro cap plays like this are determined in the board room. A single contract win or loss will make or break them.
In short, you pays your money, you take you chance but don't put any more in than you can happily lose without a care.
I haven't looked at your particular holding but you might also want to check out liquidity before you get too excited.
DoubleSix said:
Cool, I'll PM those across to you.
Seriously though, no one can tell you with any worthwhile certainty what the future holds for your shares.
The fortunes of micro cap plays like this are determined in the board room. A single contract win or loss will make or break them.
In short, you pays your money, you take you chance but don't put any more in than you can happily lose without a care.
I haven't looked at your particular holding but you might also want to check out liquidity before you get too excited.
Yeah, I guess i expected that sort of reply. I think I'll watch it for a few weeks and see what happens.Seriously though, no one can tell you with any worthwhile certainty what the future holds for your shares.
The fortunes of micro cap plays like this are determined in the board room. A single contract win or loss will make or break them.
In short, you pays your money, you take you chance but don't put any more in than you can happily lose without a care.
I haven't looked at your particular holding but you might also want to check out liquidity before you get too excited.
It's now up to 48 cents
It'll be half that tomorrow no doubt. It seems to be trading regularly enough for me to sell mine...
Esseesse said:
EricE said:
Tempted by VW now, oversold and could see a nice rebound when Winterkorn steps down this week.
I agree, but does it look like their problems are worsening for now? Reminds me of the BP/Deep Water fiasco, did anyone here make the most of that? It was before I paid an interest in things financial...Pete102 said:
Glencore thoughts anyone? Certainly not a share I've followed lately but a few people have been harping on how cheap it is at the moment, relative to the company traditionally...
I've been getting well and truly shafted on the mining (KAZ). What looks cheap today looks expensive tomorrow. If you have no money on it then you're best staying away until things settle down and it's a bit more clear where it's going.Pete102 said:
Glencore thoughts anyone? Certainly not a share I've followed lately but a few people have been harping on how cheap it is at the moment, relative to the company traditionally...
In short, it's too leveraged to be able to meet its obligations if commod values don't recover and reasonably strongly. Commods aren't going to recover because they are retracing to fair value with no speculative demand on any horizon. Saudis are cashing in investments to fund their gap in oil revenues and producers of other commods like the metals are over producing. In the current climate, Glencore is more likely to restructure or default rather than go on any credible recovery.
In reality, the board knew the party was coming to an end when they cashed in by floating.
DonkeyApple said:
In short, it's too leveraged to be able to meet its obligations if commod values don't recover and reasonably strongly. Commods aren't going to recover because they are retracing to fair value with no speculative demand on any horizon. Saudis are cashing in investments to fund their gap in oil revenues and producers of other commods like the metals are over producing.
.
A lot of this depends if you believe Investec over everyone else..
There's plenty of opinions that things are over done http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-23/...
Even if it survives without a restructuring it won't be the same business it was.
Never see any upside to 'investing' in something that doesn't currently exist. Punting it is a different matter but to invest you need to know what you are investing in over a medium to long term environment and no one knows what that is yet.
Never see any upside to 'investing' in something that doesn't currently exist. Punting it is a different matter but to invest you need to know what you are investing in over a medium to long term environment and no one knows what that is yet.
DonkeyApple said:
Even if it survives without a restructuring it won't be the same business it was.
Never see any upside to 'investing' in something that doesn't currently exist. Punting it is a different matter but to invest you need to know what you are investing in over a medium to long term environment and no one knows what that is yet.
That argument would prevent your investing in most financial services organisations as their activities are too complicated for outsiders (and frequently management) to understand.Never see any upside to 'investing' in something that doesn't currently exist. Punting it is a different matter but to invest you need to know what you are investing in over a medium to long term environment and no one knows what that is yet.
Fittster said:
That argument would prevent your investing in most financial services organisations as their activities are too complicated for outsiders (and frequently management) to understand.
Not at all. We are talking about vehicles in near terminal flux where bankruptcy v survival in a new form are the two outcomes. Anything currently in something like Glencore is just a punt. It can't be an investment.
DonkeyApple said:
Fittster said:
That argument would prevent your investing in most financial services organisations as their activities are too complicated for outsiders (and frequently management) to understand.
Not at all. We are talking about vehicles in near terminal flux where bankruptcy v survival in a new form are the two outcomes. Anything currently in something like Glencore is just a punt. It can't be an investment.
"This, in many ways, doesn’t make sense. Glencore has raised $2.5 billion in equity in the past month. It has saved $2.4 billion from chopping dividend payments this year and next. Even if faith has evaporated in Glencore management’s ability to deliver other cuts—through, for example, deals related to the future production of some metals, those savings are in the bank.
Along with other steps, this gave Glencore a $10 billion bazooka designed to cut its net debt to close to $20 billion from nearly $30 billion.
The apparent concern is the $18 billion in short-term funding that Glencore relies upon in its trading business. These so-called readily marketable securities roll over every 30 to 45 days and aren’t counted in the company’s measure of its net debt. But this is relatively low risk to the banks that finance its trades. The funding is backed by physical commodities and a letter of credit from the eventual buyer.
Meanwhile, Glencore in June renewed $15.3 billion of revolving credit facilities, the shortest of which need not be renegotiated until mid-2017. Glencore had $10.4 billion in liquidity on hand as of June.
The company should therefore be able to absorb some squeeze on funding. It is already effectively shrinking the size of its trading operations and could further, albeit at the cost of hurting profits and raising further questions over its credit rating.
Glencore isn’t getting credit for its plans to cut debt, or for an underlying business that should still produce $7.8 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization next year at spot commodities prices, according to Barclays.
Rather, investors are fleeing from a business they see as confidence-based, and therefore prone to unravel at speed. Whether that is logical or not, no longer seems to matter. The onus is now on Glencore’s management to find a way to stop that rush for the exit."
http://www.wsj.com/articles/glencores-trading-book...
And what of the counterparty risk of its trade book? It's a falling market and they are counterparty to lots of entities that won't be around in their current guise if commods stay down here.
Falling values, rising funding costs and spiralling counterparty risk.
It's really not important whether it goes bust, restructures, survives exactly as is. At this exact moment in time it is not an investment but a punt.
Falling values, rising funding costs and spiralling counterparty risk.
It's really not important whether it goes bust, restructures, survives exactly as is. At this exact moment in time it is not an investment but a punt.
DonkeyApple said:
And what of the counterparty risk of its trade book? It's a falling market and they are counterparty to lots of entities that won't be around in their current guise if commods stay down here.
Falling values, rising funding costs and spiralling counterparty risk.
It's really not important whether it goes bust, restructures, survives exactly as is. At this exact moment in time it is not an investment but a punt.
If you are fully signed up to the zerohedge view ( http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-28/19-billio...) then the world is ending.Falling values, rising funding costs and spiralling counterparty risk.
It's really not important whether it goes bust, restructures, survives exactly as is. At this exact moment in time it is not an investment but a punt.
However that road leads investing in gold and becoming a prepper.
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