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twinturboz

1,278 posts

179 months

Wednesday 3rd February 2016
quotequote all
Cheers DA.

Pretty sure when I opened an account with IB they were covered by FSCS will have to double check.

This market is insane today. These damn algos just take out stops all over the place, I've practically stopped using them right now, well no hard stops anyway.

Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 3rd February 20:13

DonkeyApple

55,384 posts

170 months

Wednesday 3rd February 2016
quotequote all
twinturboz said:
Cheers DA.

Pretty sure when I opened an account with IB they were covered by FSCS will have to double check.

This market is insane today. These damn algos just take out stops all over the place, I've practically stopped using them right now, well no hard stops anyway.

Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 3rd February 20:13
IB have a UK brokerage, IB UK Ltd which is FSCS covered. They set it up to handle the CFD clearing and retail side originally as they aren't permissible instruments in the US.


Burwood

18,709 posts

247 months

Wednesday 3rd February 2016
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
twinturboz said:
Cheers DA.

Pretty sure when I opened an account with IB they were covered by FSCS will have to double check.

This market is insane today. These damn algos just take out stops all over the place, I've practically stopped using them right now, well no hard stops anyway.

Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 3rd February 20:13
IB have a UK brokerage, IB UK Ltd which is FSCS covered. They set it up to handle the CFD clearing and retail side originally as they aren't permissible instruments in the US.
Read up on the founder. What a legend.

DonkeyApple

55,384 posts

170 months

Wednesday 3rd February 2016
quotequote all
Burwood said:
DonkeyApple said:
twinturboz said:
Cheers DA.

Pretty sure when I opened an account with IB they were covered by FSCS will have to double check.

This market is insane today. These damn algos just take out stops all over the place, I've practically stopped using them right now, well no hard stops anyway.

Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 3rd February 20:13
IB have a UK brokerage, IB UK Ltd which is FSCS covered. They set it up to handle the CFD clearing and retail side originally as they aren't permissible instruments in the US.
Read up on the founder. What a legend.
I've never known anything about him other than he was a Hungarian immigrant.

IB have always seemed to offer a good quality product. They only general issue with them, as with most super cheap destinations, is that if it can't be done online then it can't be done. Having I suppose grown up professionally on either side of the tech boom I could never use a broker that I couldn't get on the telephone rapidly if needed.

Burwood

18,709 posts

247 months

Wednesday 3rd February 2016
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
Burwood said:
DonkeyApple said:
twinturboz said:
Cheers DA.

Pretty sure when I opened an account with IB they were covered by FSCS will have to double check.

This market is insane today. These damn algos just take out stops all over the place, I've practically stopped using them right now, well no hard stops anyway.

Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 3rd February 20:13
IB have a UK brokerage, IB UK Ltd which is FSCS covered. They set it up to handle the CFD clearing and retail side originally as they aren't permissible instruments in the US.
Read up on the founder. What a legend.
I've never known anything about him other than he was a Hungarian immigrant.

IB have always seemed to offer a good quality product. They only general issue with them, as with most super cheap destinations, is that if it can't be done online then it can't be done. Having I suppose grown up professionally on either side of the tech boom I could never use a broker that I couldn't get on the telephone rapidly if needed.
Many moons ago I got screwed by e trade due to their outages and difficult phone in. During the palm spin off of 3com.

twinturboz

1,278 posts

179 months

Wednesday 3rd February 2016
quotequote all
Gpro even worse than they pre-announced. How long till this is $0.

shopper150

1,576 posts

195 months

Wednesday 3rd February 2016
quotequote all
twinturboz said:
Gpro even worse than they pre-announced. How long till this is $0.
I've been trying to short this for weeks. IG won't allow it. Even today, not allowed.

twinturboz

1,278 posts

179 months

Wednesday 3rd February 2016
quotequote all
shopper150 said:
I've been trying to short this for weeks. IG won't allow it. Even today, not allowed.
Probably not worth it anyway, risk of a squeeze if anything positive comes out.

Oil has been acting strange, something is going on.

DonkeyApple

55,384 posts

170 months

Wednesday 3rd February 2016
quotequote all
shopper150 said:
twinturboz said:
Gpro even worse than they pre-announced. How long till this is $0.
I've been trying to short this for weeks. IG won't allow it. Even today, not allowed.
Probably no lend available.

traxx

3,143 posts

223 months

Thursday 4th February 2016
quotequote all
Behemoth said:
walm said:
Off the top of my head here were the innovations that really counted:
- THE MOUSE.
More thread derail, but Apple certainly didn't invent the mouse.
Like so many "Apple innovations" they copied it from Xerox

DonkeyApple

55,384 posts

170 months

Thursday 4th February 2016
quotequote all
traxx said:
Behemoth said:
walm said:
Off the top of my head here were the innovations that really counted:
- THE MOUSE.
More thread derail, but Apple certainly didn't invent the mouse.
Like so many "Apple innovations" they copied it from Xerox
Yeah, but they asked for it. Those feckers at Xerox copy everything.

shopper150

1,576 posts

195 months

Thursday 4th February 2016
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
shopper150 said:
twinturboz said:
Gpro even worse than they pre-announced. How long till this is $0.
I've been trying to short this for weeks. IG won't allow it. Even today, not allowed.
Probably no lend available.
Yes, this is what they said when I queried it a few weeks back.

Output Flange

16,800 posts

212 months

Thursday 4th February 2016
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
Yeah, but they asked for it. Those feckers at Xerox copy everything.
I won't let this ^^^ go un-noticed.

clap

shopper150

1,576 posts

195 months

Thursday 4th February 2016
quotequote all
So Shell profits are down 80%, stock jumps almost 5%.

I might look into some type of dividend capture strategy on this stock. Will float it out to you guys once I've got my head around it.

DonkeyApple

55,384 posts

170 months

Thursday 4th February 2016
quotequote all
You'd need an incredibly short time horizon to capture it as part of the reason for the high yield is the fact that the stock is pricing in the very high chance of the dividend not being paid.

The flows are going to be very messy around the XD point also.

I do a lot of arbing of XD events and one of the key filters is to drop out anything yielding much above 4% unless it's a special. A Blue Chip yielding much more than 4 has other dynamics at play that make it typically too high risk. The sweet spot for capturing dividend yield is really 2-4%.

I think the real value with Shell lies in the capital growth once we firmly enter a true bull phase again which maybe a long time out.

Generally I take the view that if stocks were greyhounds and a race is about to start, I wouldn't be betting at that point in time on a dog that hasn't yet finished its last race or one that has only just finished the last race. I'd generally follow a dog that is fresh, healthy and keen to get started.

shopper150

1,576 posts

195 months

Thursday 4th February 2016
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
You'd need an incredibly short time horizon to capture it as part of the reason for the high yield is the fact that the stock is pricing in the very high chance of the dividend not being paid.

The flows are going to be very messy around the XD point also.

I do a lot of arbing of XD events and one of the key filters is to drop out anything yielding much above 4% unless it's a special. A Blue Chip yielding much more than 4 has other dynamics at play that make it typically too high risk. The sweet spot for capturing dividend yield is really 2-4%.

I think the real value with Shell lies in the capital growth once we firmly enter a true bull phase again which maybe a long time out.

Generally I take the view that if stocks were greyhounds and a race is about to start, I wouldn't be betting at that point in time on a dog that hasn't yet finished its last race or one that has only just finished the last race. I'd generally follow a dog that is fresh, healthy and keen to get started.
How about something like this?
1) Buy real stock now, sell after XD date. I can use the capital loss to offset against other gains. Or I could buy through my ISA.
2) Short stock now on IG (slightly leveraged so that gain is more than the loss I incur by selling the real stock at a loss), close the position once the stock drops after XD date? I am unsure here as I think IG make an adjustment for the dividend. My gain here would be tax free.

walm

10,609 posts

203 months

Thursday 4th February 2016
quotequote all
shopper150 said:
I am unsure here as I think IG make an adjustment for the dividend.
Nah - they just pay out huge amounts to anyone short on an ex-div date.
It's essentially free money.





Oh wait... wink

DonkeyApple

55,384 posts

170 months

Thursday 4th February 2016
quotequote all
shopper150 said:
How about something like this?
1) Buy real stock now, sell after XD date. I can use the capital loss to offset against other gains. Or I could buy through my ISA.
2) Short stock now on IG (slightly leveraged so that gain is more than the loss I incur by selling the real stock at a loss), close the position once the stock drops after XD date? I am unsure here as I think IG make an adjustment for the dividend. My gain here would be tax free.
How do you control or manage the stock price over such a prolonged exposure period.

The only way to scalp dividends is to study the flow in and out in the week prior to XD and compare this to the norm. What you are looking for is a clue as to whether the income funds and market in general are net buying in or selling out ahead of the dividend. You then need to check that overall market volatility is normal and look to see if the ftse is in a positive or negative frame of mind. Finally you want to check that there are no scheduled economic announcements or reports from peer stocks due. The former is a bit of a pain as UK stocks until last year went X on a Wednesday so before any major economic announcements from the US or UK bits now on a Thirsday so you have to factor that risk in and basically not trade those weeks.

You need to trade as an OTC to avoid the stamp as that 0.5% is basically your average profit per trade.

The alternate is to look to trade post XD after the stock has dropped as during favourable market conditions the price usually rallies within a week or two back where it was. The problem though is that every over night event hugely extrapolates your risk and also triggers the funding levy so I'm not a fan of that approach.

The key is that the world and their dog know about the XD event and there will be huge numbers of professional eyeballs watching and trading it for different reasons. All you can do as a retail trader is study the event and see if there is a small opportunity left on the table because the volume available for the arb is too small for an institution to take advantage.

But look at every angle and follow them all to their natural conclusion as it is a fantastic way to learn some really fine details about the equity markets.

shopper150

1,576 posts

195 months

Thursday 4th February 2016
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
shopper150 said:
How about something like this?
1) Buy real stock now, sell after XD date. I can use the capital loss to offset against other gains. Or I could buy through my ISA.
2) Short stock now on IG (slightly leveraged so that gain is more than the loss I incur by selling the real stock at a loss), close the position once the stock drops after XD date? I am unsure here as I think IG make an adjustment for the dividend. My gain here would be tax free.
How do you control or manage the stock price over such a prolonged exposure period.

The only way to scalp dividends is to study the flow in and out in the week prior to XD and compare this to the norm. What you are looking for is a clue as to whether the income funds and market in general are net buying in or selling out ahead of the dividend. You then need to check that overall market volatility is normal and look to see if the ftse is in a positive or negative frame of mind. Finally you want to check that there are no scheduled economic announcements or reports from peer stocks due. The former is a bit of a pain as UK stocks until last year went X on a Wednesday so before any major economic announcements from the US or UK bits now on a Thirsday so you have to factor that risk in and basically not trade those weeks.

You need to trade as an OTC to avoid the stamp as that 0.5% is basically your average profit per trade.

The alternate is to look to trade post XD after the stock has dropped as during favourable market conditions the price usually rallies within a week or two back where it was. The problem though is that every over night event hugely extrapolates your risk and also triggers the funding levy so I'm not a fan of that approach.

The key is that the world and their dog know about the XD event and there will be huge numbers of professional eyeballs watching and trading it for different reasons. All you can do as a retail trader is study the event and see if there is a small opportunity left on the table because the volume available for the arb is too small for an institution to take advantage.

But look at every angle and follow them all to their natural conclusion as it is a fantastic way to learn some really fine details about the equity markets.
Thanks. It sounds quite complicated, but I will look into this and and report back.

walm

10,609 posts

203 months

Thursday 4th February 2016
quotequote all
shopper150 said:
Thanks. It sounds quite complicated, but I will look into this and and report back.
I'll summarise: trouble > worth.
(For retail investors. Different if you are a market participant.)
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