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[twinturboz]

Yup just imagine if it had been a big beat. Maybe that report will stem the recent sell off, if it sets up properly over the next few sessions might well be a decent play it's pretty oversold.

Grabbed some twitter in the 13's plan to lock them up stick them in a drawer and forget about them.

[traxx]

Love the way ZH hate Tesla

Perhaps the only company's results we have more fun spreading than Netflix, is Tesla's for the simple reason that the company has managed to convert GAAP reality into a singularity of such non-GAAP bullst, which is no longer merely laughable but is solidly inside the ridiculous, if not criminal (of course, nobody cares as long as the stock keeps rising but the second it plunges, watch those lawsuits soar), that none other company can even come close.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-10/tesla-rel...


I think the key point is that they are burning through cash at an incredible rate so they will need to sell more shares soon

Hopefully it gets squeezed back up to $175 so I can go short again

[gibbon]

twinturboz said:

In that case I'll stick to the random lines on my charts

Your random lines predict human reactions on averaged conditions to news, or increasingly, automated algos to pattern conditions and cycles. They doent predict extreme movements, swings, changes of sentiment and global conditions at all, your patterns are reactionary, not forecasting. Thats my issue with them, they have their use, but they largely follow patterns and norms, once out of that, they are lost.

[twinturboz]

gibbon said:

Your random lines predict human reactions on averaged conditions to news, or increasingly, automated algos to pattern conditions and cycles. They doent predict extreme movements, swings, changes of sentiment and global conditions at all, your patterns are reactionary, not forecasting. Thats my issue with them, they have their use, but they largely follow patterns and norms, once out of that, they are lost.

Some of that I agree with some of it I don't, ultimately a fundamental trader and a technical trader won't ever fully agree.

As for the not forecasting again depending on what patterns your using they can derive a future price should the patten play out and I've seen with my own eyes those pattens then playing out and hitting those values within 0.2, but at the same time I'll also admit that some patterns just don't work or do what's expected, so yes in general they are not forecasting at all, they just help to give you a range of scenarios that may play out, by no means is technical analysis an exact science.

I'd argue being a fundamental trader hasn't helped trading the momentum stocks like say Amzn, Tsla, Netflix. Argument sake lets say your analysis says Amazon's fair value is $200 how does that help you take a short at 650 when its losing key support or crossing under moving averages that it's been above for the last 6 months. Or for another scenario take the Spx why has the last 3 major declines in Oct, Aug and Jan happened to stall at the 1800 level. Btw it won't stop there today before you use that against me

Ultimately I think it comes down to your investing style, there is no way fundamental analysis will help me trade the way I do on a day to day basis. By nature fundamentals are geared to a longer time frame while technical analysis just work on a much shorter timeframe.

Edited by twinturboz on Thursday 11th February 10:44

[Burwood]

twinturboz said:

Holding 170 and 200 calls. Has to be a beat for some serious upside otherwise see you later. I have a figure of 31% short.

Amzn $5 billion in buybacks, no chance they buy back at these levels.

Big miss for Tesla but stock not tanking yet.

Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 10th February 21:20

Just more smoke in a vein attempt to shore up the stock price. Amazon don't even have 5 billion and such a small BB is like stick a bandaid on the titanic's gaping hole. What idiot would borrow money to buy stock already trading at a 300 PE. Look to 2016 for a mega bezos unload of a lot of stock. Employees finding their stock worthless and leaving. It's open short season on amazon.

[walm]

Burwood said:

Just more smoke in a vein attempt to shore up the stock price. Amazon don't even have 5 billion and such a small BB is like stick a bandaid on the titanic's gaping hole. What idiot would borrow money to buy stock already trading at a 300 PE. Look to 2016 for a mega bezos unload of a lot of stock. Employees finding their stock worthless and leaving. It's open short season on amazon.

You might be right about valuation and the direction of the stock price (and I hesitate to call you out again) but your rants contain FACTUAL inaccuracies that weaken the argument pretty dramatically.

Amazon has $16bn in cash and $3bn in marketable securities.
They can very easily buyback $5bn in stock.
(Sure it is only 2% of mkt cap but they CAN do it.)

And it is absolutely EXTREME to suggest that AMZN stock price is going to ZERO!!!! (That's what "finding their stock worthless" means...)
With 2-3 year vesting the employees will have been given their stock when the price was between $200-300.
They agreed to work for the company then, at that price, so it has a very long way to go before they are in a worse position than when they took on their job. It would be absolutely bonkers for them to leave just because what was a good deal (the one they took) turns into and AMAZING deal (when the stock goes up) and then just comes back to earth again. They aren't any worse off then when they took the deal!

Those who started in 2015 and those with big chunks from that year might be a little annoyed but since it doesn't vest until 2018, I suspect they would stick around for a recovery rather than throw their toys out of the pram now, no?

[Oakey]

Speaking of which, where is gregf40 these days?

[DonkeyApple]

If other such employee options situations are anything to go by, the employees won't be able to leave as they will need the wage income to keep finance the debt they've accumulated off the back of invested stock options which are now worth less than the debt on them.

I'd bet a very large number of employees have been spending that money for quite some time and are currently stting bricks that they aren't going to be getting quite as much as their recent lifestyle spending has been based upon.

People love to start spending their winnings before they are in the bank and lending people money against future bonuses or vesting options is an almost vanilla activity.

[twinturboz]

Amzn might well be a short but personally I can't short at this level knowing a relief rally will send this up $50-100 in no time, after that maybe.

The only things that I see that are screaming short right now is gold which looks like it's leaving the earth's stratosphere and the 10 and 30 yr US treasuries all of which have a parabolic look to their charts only issue is fear needs to subside or they carry on screaming up.

Overall quite the game being played, yesterday market rallied taking out all the stops on most shorts so today the aim of the game is to take out all the long stops.

What's ironic is everyone was blaming China for the crash yet China isn't even open, and when they open up Monday it's not going to be fun.
Also US markets closed Monday so very few will want to hold long over the weekend.

Bigger picture that bear flag from last week is playing out 1780-1750 SPX is a good target, the latter being on the trend line of the bull market.
If that fails to hold then watch out below 1600 would be the next logical level.

But I'm still of the belief we get a ripper of a rally soon where's that vicious bear market rally?

If your shorting here good luck hope it works for you but shorting in the hole hardly ever works out well.

[Burwood]

Oakey said:

Speaking of which, where is gregf40 these days?

didn't you know, he was outed as fraud and is hiding-i suspect reading these posts though HI G-REG

Walm, sorry to combine the post, you may well be correct but if Amzn have 16B they need most of that for other purposes so any meaningful buy back required more debt. I can be emotive but perhaps it's more about coming over too literally. The cream of the crop nowadays (chancers and good talkers) wouldn't get out of bed for under 10M a year. There is a sickening sense of entitlement in these tech companies. It's get rich first, productive way second. Look at Marissa Mayer. $400M deal. Apple hire from LV cost 1B or even more maybe. It's a disgrace actually. The disney guy, Iger I think wanted a new pay deal worth 2B. Like $50M a year just isn't enough. My point being that any worthy amazon employee has a $$ figure in mind so the CEO says, OK here is 10,000 in promised shares. OK, let's see. It's worth 7M today. It's still st pay but I've cleaned out Google so Amazon looks ok for a few years. That stock price is cut in half so chaps 7M is now 3.5M. Holy fk, the guy is suffering. Worthless is relative and i accept i should have used a different adjective.

[Burwood]

i couldn't find a thread on it so just wanted to comment on the committees question to Matt Britten (Google UK CEO) about his salary package. As much as Googles sharp tax affairs are not in favour I think it outrageous that he is asked a completely non relevant question. I think he handled the question well and has nothing to be embarrassed about.

[whoami]

Burwood said:

i couldn't find a thread on it so just wanted to comment on the committees question to Matt Britten (Google UK CEO) about his salary package. As much as Googles sharp tax affairs are not in favour I think it outrageous that he is asked a completely non relevant question. I think he handled the question well and has nothing to be embarrassed about.

He handled it like a complete amateur.

He should have told her that of course he knows what his salary is, but, as it's got nothing to do with her or her committee, he's not willing to disclose it.

Instead of doing this, he chose to lie.

[walm]

whoami said:

Burwood said:

i couldn't find a thread on it so just wanted to comment on the committees question to Matt Britten (Google UK CEO) about his salary package. As much as Googles sharp tax affairs are not in favour I think it outrageous that he is asked a completely non relevant question. I think he handled the question well and has nothing to be embarrassed about.

He handled it like a complete amateur.

He should have told her that of course he knows what his salary is, but, as it's got nothing to do with her or her committee, he's not willing to disclose it.

Instead of doing this, he chose to lie.

Given that a bunch of it is in stock it is impossible to know. Unless he had a pretty complicated spreadsheet in-front of him with live pricing he would be lying if he said he DID know!!

He could disclose his base salary I suppose but that would open him up to accusations of low-balling since his bonus is likely a multiple of base.

Honestly, to anyone who knows how top execs get paid, asking "how much do you get paid" is utterly ridiculous.
- Stock options make it change, literally every day.
- Performance related pay will be HUGE.
- Vesting periods make the date of the award also impossible to determine in advance.
- None of these can he know or disclose with any degree of certainty.

I am sorry but Meg Hillier was right her constituents DO live in a different world - most likely a PAYE one!

[Burwood]

is she even qualified to understand such things as tax, accounting or even Googles business.

[whoami]

walm said:

He could disclose his base salary I suppose but that would open him up to accusations of low-balling since his bonus is likely a multiple of base.

She specifically asked him for his base salary and to forget share options, etc.

The resultant laughter in the room when he claimed not to know what that was told its own story.

As I stated earlier, he should have just told her that it's none of her business and had nothing to do with the work of her committee either.

Lying just played into her hands.

Amateur stuff.

[Burwood]

whoami said:

walm said:

He could disclose his base salary I suppose but that would open him up to accusations of low-balling since his bonus is likely a multiple of base.

She specifically asked him for his base salary and to forget share options, etc.

The resultant laughter in the room when he claimed not to know what that was told its own story.

As I stated earlier, he should have just told her that it's none of her business and had nothing to do with the work of her committee either.

Lying just played into her hands.

Amateur stuff.

And you've never been flustered by the live tv thrust in your face. The man didn't want to stoop to her level. Who are you to criticise him.

[DonkeyApple]

Burwood said:

And you've never been flustered by the live tv thrust in your face. The man didn't want to stoop to her level. Who are you to criticise him.

He's the UK CEO of one of the largest companies on the planet. He's had a long time to prepare and to be prepped by the best money can buy. I think it's suffice to say that today the Peter Principle came into play. She just banked her next promotion and he announced that his next move is most likely a sideways one that will be papered up to not look as bad as it is.

[shopper150]

Any thoughts on today's action guys?
Will we see a gap up tomorrow?

FANG seems to be holding up relatively well considering. AAPL has been fairly steady too for the last couple of weeks.

But everyone is definitely painting a picture of doom and gloom. Could we see the FTSE drop to 4000? DAX has been slaughtered!

How low can we go?

[twinturboz]

shopper150 said:

Any thoughts on today's action guys?
Will we see a gap up tomorrow?

FANG seems to be holding up relatively well considering. AAPL has been fairly steady too for the last couple of weeks.

But everyone is definitely painting a picture of doom and gloom. Could we see the FTSE drop to 4000? DAX has been slaughtered!

How low can we go?

Was certain we'd get to that 1780 today and we were about to until some shady stuff went on. Someone bought big $$ calls in Spy, Iwm, QQQ and Aapl and then just as the market was about to breakdown along with crude that Opec headline hit the news and off we ripped.

Just my opinion and the way I'm playing it is we're close to a short term bottom, I still think we'll get that 1780 and I'd love a flush lower with a nice reversal off it but to some extent that might be too obvious.

Next 2 sessions should provide clarity but I'm thinking a rally next week up to 185 and if we really get going 190+. My max downside we break 1750 meaningfully and I'll bail out of all positions, in the meantime short gold, short bonds, long amzn and apple. Eyeing a possible a short on Uvxy and maybe get back into oil tomorrow.

[shopper150]

Volume seems very light at the opening today...

I'm feeling long GOOG more than AMZN...