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[AOK]

Thanks for sharing TTZ.... I do sometimes forget that people do this professionally and not just with a few pennies in an ISA!

I guess even if the moving average ceilings are tested over the next few days, generally things are only heading one way?

[AOK]

AOK said:

Thanks for sharing TTZ.... I do sometimes forget that people do this professionally and not just with a few pennies in an ISA!

I guess even if the moving average ceilings are tested over the next few days, generally things are only heading one way?

Amateur question here, but with impending doom would precious metals (Gold in particular) be a better place to put money than just taking it out of stocks and keeping it as sterling?

Historically hasn't Gold always done well in a bust, and those graphs somewhat confirm that?

Actually, those weren't the question.... the question is: with that in mind, I've never actually invested in a commodity, how is it done? Can you actually own 'something' linked directly to the price of Gold? Or get into something like SGBS? Or a mining company like ABG? I just have no clue how it works.

Sorry to lower the skill level for a moment!

[twinturboz]

AOK said:

I guess even if the moving average ceilings are tested over the next few days, generally things are only heading one way?

Btw wasn't my charts above just one I found that shows how everything is near resistance.

It's a tough one to call right now, found myself itching to short today but couldn't find one decent reason to actually go short apart from hugely overbought to the point almost off the scale.

It's one big short squeeze. The early shorts near the lows probably got taken out or added on the way up, then more shorts probably tried to short it early this week. Seeing as it's more or less been a straight rip from the lows they would have been forced to cover which is just driving it up further.

Wouldn't say we're definately heading for a big crash, but things should get a bit more clearer soon, for sure I wouldn't be adding any new long positions here, what with how far and how fast we've come up. Maybe the jobs number tomorrow gives a decent short signal, a pop up and then fade to red.

Even if your bullish in the longer term a pullback and consolidation above the recent lows would be healthy and if you are heavily long then ViX is relatively cheap right now to add as protection. I'm thinking if Spy stays above 194 then slightly bullish bias below that and more bearish.

Not 100% sure but don't think Gold does that well in crashes, it's been dead until turn of the year when it's suddenly come alive. Currently has that look to it where could see $1300 + although a sizable move has already taken place in it and it could do with a pullback and rest before the next leg up. There's loads of etfs available on gold, off the top of my head think it's Gld you want that tracks the price of gold the best.

[AOK]

Very informative as always TTZ, thank you. Let's see what today brings!

[walm]

AOK said:

I've never actually invested in a commodity, how is it done? Can you actually own 'something' linked directly to the price of Gold? Or get into something like SGBS? Or a mining company like ABG?

You can go and buy gold in physical form: http://moneyweek.com/how-to-buy-gold-bullion-55811...
Literally like Goldfinger.
However, the SPREAD (difference between buying and selling) is much higher than ETFs so even if the price of gold goes up you will make more money in the ETF.
And the ETF does exactly the same thing.
They take money in and buy physical gold, store it and keep it safe.
Since they are doing it for literally TONNES of gold, their costs are far lower than paying a retailer to maintain a website and ship expensive bullion to you which then gets nicked when you are robbed.

I use GLD US just because it was big.

With the miners you usually have a LEVERAGED play on the price of gold.

To keep it simple:
If it costs them say $500 for each oz and the price is $1,300, they make $800 right now.
But if gold DOUBLES to $2,600 then they make $2,100 which is nearly 3x the profit.
Likewise if it halves they make just $150 so less than 25% of what they were making before.
At the same time, mining gold is hard and these guys screw up regularly.
So when they say it is going to cost $500 each oz it can end up being more like $700.
AND even worse than that, they have to estimate how much gold there is under the ground and those estimates move around all the time.
So a 1 million tonne reserve might end up being just 0.5mT.

Oh, and the business can be leveraged in and of itself too if it has debt.

e.g.
A 1 million oz reserve at $500 cost and $1,300 price is worth $800m (ignoring time value of money to keep it simple).
Say the company has $400m debt, the equity is thus worth $400m.

But then it costs in reality $700 and there is only 0.8m oz after all so even if the price STAYS THE SAME you get just $600 per oz and x0.8 means $480m of value to the company.
The debt is still $400m so your equity has dropped from $400m to $80m. Ouch.

Not sure you meant the dodgy bankrupt solar company ABG SM, perhaps AGB?

[Paddymcc]

Looks like I got out of premier oil the right time for a change.

Anyone holding 88 energy? Seems to be a lot of chat about their potential oil fields in Alaska with an independent report imminent after another jump on no news today and on the ASX last night too.

[CRB14]

Yep - bought 88 at 0.5 and 0.7 then a few more at just over 2p so at it stands I'm doing very well. At the time I regretted buying at .7 as it then dropped by 50% for a while - i held on though. Its certainly bounced up now and seems to be holding well enough.

[twinturboz]

DonkeyApple said:

Day 1 McClendon indicted to give evidence against corruption in shale oil industry.

Day 2 McClendon drives into a wall and sets himself on fire. Chesapeake up 33%

Anyone remember the Bre-X geologist who took a helicopter ride with a mercenary but then accidentally fell out?

Up again makes it a bit over 60% in 2 days. Some of the craziest squeezes ever last few days, Fcx, Sdrl, Hk, X.

[AOK]

Nasdaq seems to be really cooling down last few hours. Perhaps the squeeze is nearing an end?

[w1ntermut3]

Question: and feel free to hound me out if boring/innapropriate.

If I were wanting to buy into a decent chunk (with respect to my own finances) of cheap ETF's and Index tracker funds, reinvesting dividends with a view to a probable 5-7 year timeframe, would it be worth waiting for the current market volatility to even out and/or see if the bear forecasters are right, and/or what happens WRT brexit or is that just short-term thinking?

Tl;dr can anyone with any realistic confidence predict much about where market indexes are heading in the next six months or is it all just random speculation and/or comment intended to make buyers/sellers act in a way that is profitable for the bloke making the argument?

[iantr]

twinturboz said:

It's been a very technical market even more so in 2016.

With the US markets, it's at a fork, in it's simplest form either this was just a correction and we make new highs, or it's all part of a massive topping formation which started last June and eventually we will break down hard. Personally I don't think the lows for 2016 are in.

For the short term think this market may go to 2020 but it's overbought and due a pullback at any point. If you look at this recent correction and rally it's basically the same structure as August. That was a 12-13% rally followed by a 5-6% pullback.

From here 2 options a pullback to 1900ish and then more sideways action eventually leading to new highs or a 2000/2008 set up where the market is rejected around 2030 and then 30-40% pullback follows.

For now forget Oil as a direction indicator, instead watch the Yen, US bonds 30yr & 10yr, IWM and Goldman Sachs, they seem to be the best tells on which way the market is heading.

Another thoughtful post Tx2.

For the sake of balance though, we should all remember that not every upward move leads to new highs, and not every downward move ends in a full on bear market crash. Many other paths are possible....

[twinturboz]

iantr said:

Another thoughtful post Tx2.

For the sake of balance though, we should all remember that not every upward move leads to new highs, and not every downward move ends in a full on bear market crash. Many other paths are possible....

Yup depends on your time frame, didn't mean to imply this week or next will lead to new highs or a crash.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-07/...

According to Goldman buy now! Very nice of them to let us know.

Edited by twinturboz on Monday 7th March 14:14

[ALBA MELV]

Hyperdynamics Corporation (OT:HDYN) - Up and down like a Brides nightie recently.

I don't trade but started watching it out of interest a couple of years back when they had drilling interests in Guinea.

[walm]

I still don't understand all you guys investing in junior resource stocks.

You are simply taking a massive punt on 1. the price of the underlying, 2. the ability of these muppets to get it out of the ground without screwing up and most importantly 3. the ability of their geologists to guestimate the actual resources underground/undersea.

How you think you have some information or valuation edge is utterly beyond me.
It's WORSE than gambling IMHO!

[NRS]

Hey! As a geologist I have complete faith in my fellow colleagues!

It could be this or it could be that,

[DonkeyApple]

NRS said:

Hey! As a geologist I have complete faith in my fellow colleagues!

It could be this or it could be that,

Sweetcheeks, here's £50. Go write me a report that says there is probably something down the bottom of this hole I plan to dig while I go and raise some free money from the thickest money pool in the market.

[walm]

DonkeyApple said:

Sweetcheeks, here's £50. Go write me a report that says there is probably something down the bottom of this hole I plan to dig while I go and raise some free money from the thickest money pool in the market.

That isn't a bad business plan.
Now if only we had someone with great experience who could sell such a thing to the market.
Rob Terry perhaps? He can't be too busy these days can he?

[DonkeyApple]

walm said:

DonkeyApple said:

Sweetcheeks, here's £50. Go write me a report that says there is probably something down the bottom of this hole I plan to dig while I go and raise some free money from the thickest money pool in the market.

That isn't a bad business plan.
Now if only we had someone with great experience who could sell such a thing to the market.
Rob Terry perhaps? He can't be too busy these days can he?

Any AIM director or broker will do. They're easy to spot as they are all short, fat, penniless alcoholics desperately looking for the next scam to keep their debtors off their back for another quarter. Try and avoid the ones with funny Colonial accents as they find it harder to sell lies because no one could ever believe anything they say.

[NRS]

DonkeyApple said:

walm said:

DonkeyApple said:

Sweetcheeks, here's £50. Go write me a report that says there is probably something down the bottom of this hole I plan to dig while I go and raise some free money from the thickest money pool in the market.

That isn't a bad business plan.
Now if only we had someone with great experience who could sell such a thing to the market.
Rob Terry perhaps? He can't be too busy these days can he?

Any AIM director or broker will do. They're easy to spot as they are all short, fat, penniless alcoholics desperately looking for the next scam to keep their debtors off their back for another quarter. Try and avoid the ones with funny Colonial accents as they find it harder to sell lies because no one could ever believe anything they say.

I'm not willing to risk my professional reputation on this scam excellent investment opportunity unless I get 5% of the shares involved, and the ability to sell them once we announce a complete failure the world's biggest discovery in 20 years.

[DonkeyApple]

NRS said:

DonkeyApple said:

walm said:

DonkeyApple said:

Sweetcheeks, here's £50. Go write me a report that says there is probably something down the bottom of this hole I plan to dig while I go and raise some free money from the thickest money pool in the market.

That isn't a bad business plan.
Now if only we had someone with great experience who could sell such a thing to the market.
Rob Terry perhaps? He can't be too busy these days can he?

Any AIM director or broker will do. They're easy to spot as they are all short, fat, penniless alcoholics desperately looking for the next scam to keep their debtors off their back for another quarter. Try and avoid the ones with funny Colonial accents as they find it harder to sell lies because no one could ever believe anything they say.

I'm not willing to risk my professional reputation on this scam excellent investment opportunity unless I get 5% of the shares involved, and the ability to sell them once we announce a complete failure the world's biggest discovery in 20 years.

Is that 5% of the stock we declare, or 5% of what we issue privately as options and then spank out the back door while our brokers and loyal social media investors pump the price up?