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[NRS]

walm said:

This.
Although they are a new entrant by any reasonable definition.
- Very low number of models? Check. (4, if you are being generous, versus established players with 10+.)
- Not making any money? Check. (Established players usually make some money!)
- Tiny volumes? Check.
- Niche? Check.

Sure they are a leader in EVs but they are looking to compete with ICE cars which makes that the relevant market.

I agree with your overall view, but some of those points are not covering where the company is in it's development stage. Since it's a new company of course it won't make any money until they are up and running properly. All profits go into the next stage of expansion. This isn't bad (unless the next stage of expansion fails). Same with the low number of models. Not to mention the tiny volumes and niche market may be "solved" by the sales of the Tesla 3 if it goes as planned. But that is the risk as you mention. To be honest it's a bit like McLaren has been doing, but on a different scale.

[walm]

NRS said:

walm said:

This.
Although they are a new entrant by any reasonable definition.
- Very low number of models? Check. (4, if you are being generous, versus established players with 10+.)
- Not making any money? Check. (Established players usually make some money!)
- Tiny volumes? Check.
- Niche? Check.

Sure they are a leader in EVs but they are looking to compete with ICE cars which makes that the relevant market.

I agree with your overall view, but some of those points are not covering where the company is in it's development stage. Since it's a new company of course it won't make any money until they are up and running properly. All profits go into the next stage of expansion. This isn't bad (unless the next stage of expansion fails). Same with the low number of models. Not to mention the tiny volumes and niche market may be "solved" by the sales of the Tesla 3 if it goes as planned. But that is the risk as you mention. To be honest it's a bit like McLaren has been doing, but on a different scale.

I think we are agreeing...
I was just replying to jcremonini really, who was claiming they AREN'T a new entrant.
They are!

[Jonboy_t]

Anyone looked into Ilika (IKA)? have just bought in a small amount at 60p as it looks as though some technology they have a hand in developing/producing could bear fruit quite soon. Large congress happening on 28th April where the CEO is presenting about solid-state battery advances that they have made and (IMHO, of course) I think that the technology could be something with pretty wide reaching applications.

Will wait and see, but could be an interesting one to keep an eye on

[twinturboz]

Gold looks good, if it can get over that 1237 from Friday, might make a run towards the recent highs of 1280ish.


Anyone thinking of shorting Tesla ......

Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 5th April 19:57

[traxx]

twinturboz said:

Gold looks good, if it can get over that 1237 from Friday, might make a run towards the recent highs of 1280ish.


Anyone thinking of shorting Tesla ......

Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 5th April 19:57

I see Goldmans are out again today saying shorting Gold is their favourite trade but I just don't see why they think that, they must be short

I still think Tesla will go bust but no point shorting the stock yet

[twinturboz]

traxx said:

I see Goldmans are out again today saying shorting Gold is their favourite trade but I just don't see why they think that, they must be short

I still think Tesla will go bust but no point shorting the stock yet

Goldman is probably long gold, trying to get the retail crowd short it to set up the next squeeze.

Tesla said they'd be light on car numbers yesterday, if they are struggling to produce 18000 cars how they are going to manage to make 300k anytime soon I have no idea. Does seem like the last few days someone's accumulating the stock though.

Wouldn't read too much into that 300k number too, suspect if the deposit was non refundable they wouldn't have such a high number and also maybe there was a rush to get an order in so you can claim the subsidy. I think once a manufacturer has made 200k cars in total those subsidies disappear. In mean time there's a lot that can happen to the stock before 2018 which is probably the earliest some of those model 3's roll off the production line.

Musk got himself a nice cash injection interest free there but still think they'll have to come to the market for more cash at somepoint.

Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 6th April 07:16

[p1stonhead]

I got out of tesla around Autumn 2014 at around 268. It seemed insanely high back then and dropped back to 180 over the few months afterwards. That seems to be the pattern with the price rising and falling every 6 months or so. Its happened a few times now. The recent recent announcements will I think push it back to 280'ish, perhaps itll breach 300 but it will fall back again.

I think a fair few will actually not go through with the purchase. I went to put one down but it didnt work. Only afterwards I began thinking that I probably wouldnt have dreamt of buying a new 'normal' a car for 30k in say 3 years.

I probably will get it but dont have a place in the queue now so god knows when - but a lot of people will have put down the deposit with no actual way of affording it. £30k is still a hell of a lot of money for a car for most people - £1k to reserve a place isnt so much.

I imagine the announcement of orders will only be done if the figure goes up though, and we will never know how many drop out.

Edited by p1stonhead on Wednesday 6th April 07:38

[K12beano]

p1stonhead said:

I got out of tesla around Autumn 2014 at around 268. It seemed insanely high back then and dropped back to 180 over the few months afterwards. That seems to be the pattern with the price rising and falling every 6 months or so. Its happened a few times now. The recent recent announcements will I think push it back to 280'ish, perhaps itll breach 300 but it will fall back again.

I can't remember exactly when - possibly early half of 2014 - but I also realised it was yoyo-ing for similar expectation v reality tugs of war. So I had one good run over a period of a few months and decided to put it down and play with safer grenades...

[DonkeyApple]

twinturboz said:

traxx said:

I see Goldmans are out again today saying shorting Gold is their favourite trade but I just don't see why they think that, they must be short

I still think Tesla will go bust but no point shorting the stock yet

Goldman is probably long gold, trying to get the retail crowd short it to set up the next squeeze.

Tesla said they'd be light on car numbers yesterday, if they are struggling to produce 18000 cars how they are going to manage to make 300k anytime soon I have no idea. Does seem like the last few days someone's accumulating the stock though.

Wouldn't read too much into that 300k number too, suspect if the deposit was non refundable they wouldn't have such a high number and also maybe there was a rush to get an order in so you can claim the subsidy. I think once a manufacturer has made 200k cars in total those subsidies disappear. In mean time there's a lot that can happen to the stock before 2018 which is probably the earliest some of those model 3's roll off the production line.

Musk got himself a nice cash injection interest free there but still think they'll have to come to the market for more cash at somepoint.

Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 6th April 07:16

Retail can't shift gold, even the 'legendary Indian wedding' effect is finally proven to be bks. It's Central Bank buying and institutional leveraged speculation that has the firepower to shift the price in any meaningful way.

The recent reversal of the trend back to fair value is down to fears from the slowing of the US upward rate cycle, ie it is dead in the water at t moment, the collateral fall out of the Saudi/US oil fiasco, fears of EuroZone reverting to the printers and worry that the wholly fictitious Chinese economic data may not be fictitious enough.

I thought the reversal would slow to an end on the back of oil stability but the bigging up of the other economic woes has contra'd that. We are definitely at an interesting level for gold though but the big question is whether the US economy is actually going to reverse it's rates program and once again start printing money or whether this is just a temporary hiatus. Well, they aren't going to reverse without a major economic catastrophe being the trigger so what we can see is that the recent long action in Gold isn't investment but speculative hedging at present. 2016 is definitely a 'crossroads' year for all the markets that have been over inflated and artificially ramped by the global money printing of the last decade. It's going to be interesting.

[twinturboz]

DonkeyApple said:

2016 is definitely a 'crossroads' year for all the markets that have been over inflated and artificially ramped by the global money printing of the last decade. It's going to be interesting.

Agree with that, in fact if you look at US earnings since the recent market peak they are down some 20%, which means now that were close to the top the market is even more expensive than when it was last here a few months back.

The issue is each time the market looks weak the central banks simply get together to prop it up. Personally and this just could be a load of rubbish but I feel without their intervention this market would have been significantly lower on several occasions, that August flash crash I feel actual price discovery was stopped with circuit breakers and even this recent move was helped with Yellen's comments and possible Fed buying. The almost sudden u-turn by the Fed in effect seems to have eased the market for now. Question is would these markets be where they are today without all the intervention.

So when this major economic catalyst occurs the same thing is going to happen they'll try everything possible to prop the markets the only time I feel where we might get back to where prices should really be is when people feel the central banks have lost control and their policies are no longer having an effect.

Unrelated, came across this was interesting... https://stratechery.com/2016/its-a-tesla/

Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 6th April 14:23

[traxx]

Here is a question for you on Tesla

Where do the second hand cars trade - if you look on PH/Autotrader there are almost no second hand cars?
For them to scale up they will be looking at say 5% of the fleet up for sale at any one time
Sales places like Westfield aren't setup to support the used car market

So who is going to support the second hand market with a bid to prevent residuals falling apart?
If Tesla are going to setup this second hand dealership market its going to need a lot more cash and I can't see who else it can be

[walm]

traxx said:

Here is a question for you on Tesla

Where do the second hand cars trade - if you look on PH/Autotrader there are almost no second hand cars?
For them to scale up they will be looking at say 5% of the fleet up for sale at any one time
Sales places like Westfield aren't setup to support the used car market

So who is going to support the second hand market with a bid to prevent residuals falling apart?
If Tesla are going to setup this second hand dealership market its going to need a lot more cash and I can't see who else it can be

I really have no idea what you are talking about but I would happily buy a second hand Telsa if that's what you are asking.
I am sure plenty of the existing higher end second hand car dealers would sell them to me too.
No?

Do you mean Westfield the shopping centre?? What's that got to do with anything?

[traxx]

walm said:

traxx said:

Here is a question for you on Tesla

Where do the second hand cars trade - if you look on PH/Autotrader there are almost no second hand cars?
For them to scale up they will be looking at say 5% of the fleet up for sale at any one time
Sales places like Westfield aren't setup to support the used car market

So who is going to support the second hand market with a bid to prevent residuals falling apart?
If Tesla are going to setup this second hand dealership market its going to need a lot more cash and I can't see who else it can be

I really have no idea what you are talking about but I would happily buy a second hand Telsa if that's what you are asking.
I am sure plenty of the existing higher end second hand car dealers would sell them to me too.
No?

Do you mean Westfield the shopping centre?? What's that got to do with anything?

Westfield Shopping Centre is the biggest UK Tesla Sales location
Most second hand sales go through manufacturer linked second hand dealerships - Tesla don't have these
I can't imagine that an independent will want to touch the car

There are almost no second hand Teslas listed on any of the main websites
The only place I see them is on Teslas own website -- https://www.teslamotors.com/en_GB/models/preowned?...

If they are basically planing on facilitating the second hand market its going to take a lot of cash and won't be easy to setup from scratch

Edited by traxx on Wednesday 6th April 16:40

[walm]

traxx said:

Westfield Shopping Centre is the biggest UK Tesla Sales location
Most second hand sales go through manufacturer linked second hand dealerships - Tesla don't have these
I can't imagine that an independent will want to touch the car

Ah. I see.
(At first I thought you were talking about Westfield the car brand!! )

Why on earth wouldn't an independent want to touch it??
Of the 14 teslas on Autotrader, 12 of them are trade.

[twinturboz]

https://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/bl...

[walm]

twinturboz said:

https://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/bl...

What's your point? That looks similar to many depreciation curves. Why would an EV be different?
They can just chuck them out to auction with no hit, can't they?
Or are you telling me that current 3 year old Teslas are selling for <50% invoice price?
If anything the ones on Autotrader look FAR better than that (and yes, I know they are only 2 years old... but doing the math...)

[traxx]

walm said:

Why on earth wouldn't an independent want to touch it??
Of the 14 teslas on Autotrader, 12 of them are trade.

At the minute its a novelty brand - selling a few cars second hand is easy but if they stick to their sales targets there will be thousands to sell in 3 years time

Its taken decades for the big brands to establish the dealer networks which support their sales, servicing and resale
Having great service when you have issues is easy with a few cars on the road but I just don't see how they can possibly support the projected sales of 500,000 cars/year in 3 years

btw to put that 500,000 figure in context that almost as many as VW sell of Polos

[walm]

traxx said:

At the minute its a novelty brand - selling a few cars second hand is easy but if they stick to their sales targets there will be thousands to sell in 3 years time

Its taken decades for the big brands to establish the dealer networks which support their sales, servicing and resale
Having great service when you have issues is easy with a few cars on the road but I just don't see how they can possibly support the projected sales of 500,000 cars/year in 3 years

btw to put that 500,000 figure in context that almost as many as VW sell of Polos

OK well now you are making a completely different point!!!
NOW, you are talking about NEW cars NOT second hand.

There are 90 "stores and galleries" in the US right now and opening at a rapid pace.
Say an extra 20 per year.
So 150 total in 3 years.
80% of the 500k will be US - so that makes 400k over 150 which is roughly 200 per month at each "dealer" (over 2,500 a year).
And I have to admit - you may have a point.
That is a LOT. 10 per weekday!!?

In context a recent PEAK average dealer sales per dealer is around 800 per dealership.
Could Tesla do 3x that??
Could be tough.

Mind you, all they need to do is relax the "must be Tesla" rule and allow other dealers to do the selling.
They are being SUED by dealers who want to do this!!

[traxx]

My point is that I think second hand these cars will be almost unsellable without Tesla underwriting them (and they don't have the cash or the business plan to do that)
If the cars drops 50% in value to resell, it will put off potential future buyers

Its a much more upmarket example but look how much damage was done to the Mclaren brand by have dealers who couldn't support the residual values
To get out of a 12C in the early days you were looking at dropping 40% and many people I know will never ever touch the brand again because of what happened


Anyway does anyone know if they are actually able to use these $1,000 deposits to finance their current $3m/day loss or will it need to be kept separate to protect the depositors as its quoted as being refundable?

[walm]

traxx said:

My point is that I think second hand these cars will be almost unsellable without Tesla underwriting them (and they don't have the cash or the business plan to do that)
If the cars drops 50% in value to resell, it will put off potential future buyers

Its a much more upmarket example but look how much damage was done to the Mclaren brand by have dealers who couldn't support the residual values
To get out of a 12C in the early days you were looking at dropping 40% and many people I know will never ever touch the brand again because of what happened


Anyway does anyone know if they are actually able to use these $1,000 deposits to finance their current $3m/day loss or will it need to be kept separate to protect the depositors as its quoted as being refundable?

I don't know or understand the Mclaren example. (And they are supercars so perhaps that's different.)
But people are buying these cars NOW - WITH the 50% GFV so you are clearly dead wrong, no?? (You linked to the contract!)
And, as it happens that isn't actually a worry because the car is worth far more than 50% most likely.

Even if it was just 50% THAT IS STANDARD for a high-end exec saloon over three years, no??

I am not a particular Tesla bull but you just aren't writing sense.

We know:
1. The cars are selling fine second hand - no Telsa underwriting needed.
2. The cars are selling fine new - clearly the current buyers are fine with either 50% back OR they understand point 1!