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My point earlier, sorry didn't have time to elaborate was in response to Traxx saying would Tesla support residuals. They already are, with them guaranteeing to buy back the second hand value really can't drop that much more. In fact there are several articles stating the Model S has the lowest depreciation rate in the UK.
CAP states "At Black Book, we have held Tesla values static for a year now, which is highly unusual.”
Also agree with Walm 50% less is common just look at most S-classes for a start. Deposits wise as far as I know Tesla can use the funds however they see fit, if they go bankrupt then there will be no comeback on those deposits.
Quite the day for Vrx today, of course whoever bought a boat load of $55 call options yesterday had no idea
CAP states "At Black Book, we have held Tesla values static for a year now, which is highly unusual.”
Also agree with Walm 50% less is common just look at most S-classes for a start. Deposits wise as far as I know Tesla can use the funds however they see fit, if they go bankrupt then there will be no comeback on those deposits.
Quite the day for Vrx today, of course whoever bought a boat load of $55 call options yesterday had no idea
Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 6th April 21:16
Traxx, the other thing is that since the waiting lists will be long and probably production somewhat delayed this will mean the cars are limited compared to buyers at first. Thus people will pay more to get a second hand car so they get one, rather than wait 2 years before their car is produced. If this is the case for long enough the cars will get a name for low depreciation (and remember it is relative to competitors which already have large depreciation curves) and thus it could become a somewhat self-fulfilling prophecy. The issue for McLaren was that once people saw the cars fell quickly in value they avoided buying them at higher values, and thus the values fell more as people didn't want to risk it having seen the trend at the start.
twinturboz said:
Gold looks good, if it can get over that 1237 from Friday, might make a run towards the recent highs of 1280ish.
Been creeping up nicely since then, if it doesn't make new highs on the overall move then there's a potential head and shoulders pattern that could take it to 1180-1150. walm said:
NRS said:
walm said:
This.
Although they are a new entrant by any reasonable definition.
- Very low number of models? Check. (4, if you are being generous, versus established players with 10+.)
- Not making any money? Check. (Established players usually make some money!)
- Tiny volumes? Check.
- Niche? Check.
Sure they are a leader in EVs but they are looking to compete with ICE cars which makes that the relevant market.
I agree with your overall view, but some of those points are not covering where the company is in it's development stage. Since it's a new company of course it won't make any money until they are up and running properly. All profits go into the next stage of expansion. This isn't bad (unless the next stage of expansion fails). Same with the low number of models. Not to mention the tiny volumes and niche market may be "solved" by the sales of the Tesla 3 if it goes as planned. But that is the risk as you mention. To be honest it's a bit like McLaren has been doing, but on a different scale.Although they are a new entrant by any reasonable definition.
- Very low number of models? Check. (4, if you are being generous, versus established players with 10+.)
- Not making any money? Check. (Established players usually make some money!)
- Tiny volumes? Check.
- Niche? Check.
Sure they are a leader in EVs but they are looking to compete with ICE cars which makes that the relevant market.
I was just replying to jcremonini really, who was claiming they AREN'T a new entrant.
They are!
I'm not sure why you think being 'niche', building low volumes, making little money and having a low number of models is the definition of a new entrant to a market. Morgan have been around a few years
I don't buy into Tesla being a risky long term investment but time will be the judge of that.
jcremonini said:
Sorry - I should have been clearer. I meant not particularly new to the EV market.
I'm not sure why you think being 'niche', building low volumes, making little money and having a low number of models is the definition of a new entrant to a market. Morgan have been around a few years
I don't buy into Tesla being a risky long term investment but time will be the judge of that.
They are risky in that if the Model 3 has issues it could cause the whole thing to collapse around them and then everyone will panic and try and get their money out at the same time and the company will then go down. They have a lot of debt and the only way to keep that going is for the model 3 to work and them to keep investors and suppliers onside until the time it pays off. It's certainly not low risk.I'm not sure why you think being 'niche', building low volumes, making little money and having a low number of models is the definition of a new entrant to a market. Morgan have been around a few years
I don't buy into Tesla being a risky long term investment but time will be the judge of that.
NRS said:
They have a lot of debt and the only way to keep that going is for the model 3 to work and them to keep investors and suppliers onside until the time it pays off. It's certainly not low risk.
It is certainly very high risk.They lost nearly $900m last year and in cash terms they spent $2.2bn!
However they do NOT have a huge amount of debt.
They have around $800m of net debt which relative to their market cap of $33,000m is paltry.
They will be able to keep issuing converts, like the $1.2bn in March 2014 with a 1.25% coupon.
Even with some teething problems with the Model 3, which people no doubt expect, I doubt you will have a "run on the bank" type situation unless it is something catastrophic.
Fidessa is looking frothy this afternoon. Paul Murphy on Alphaville said there was a bid on the way, perhaps things are starting to move.
Also worth a short term trade IMHO, Bowleven, more cash than the market cap, rumours are that the Gas Sales agreement for the onshore powerplant is ready to go when the government signs of the licence.
Also worth a short term trade IMHO, Bowleven, more cash than the market cap, rumours are that the Gas Sales agreement for the onshore powerplant is ready to go when the government signs of the licence.
Having a great month......like everyone else I imagine, but can't decide if I should take profits.......
I bought the below thinking they were going to be long term plays but recent jumps have out performed my expectations... and I am no longer quite so sure.
Currently long on
Apple at 101, 10% increase - I figure this one still a hold.
Tesla at 185, 31% increase - I believe in the product but frankly it looks overbought.
Go Pro at 11.7, 16% increase - mostly all in one day due them hiring an Apple designer which won't fix any of their problems.
I bought the below thinking they were going to be long term plays but recent jumps have out performed my expectations... and I am no longer quite so sure.
Currently long on
Apple at 101, 10% increase - I figure this one still a hold.
Tesla at 185, 31% increase - I believe in the product but frankly it looks overbought.
Go Pro at 11.7, 16% increase - mostly all in one day due them hiring an Apple designer which won't fix any of their problems.
ExPat2B said:
Having a great month......like everyone else I imagine, but can't decide if I should take profits.......
I bought the below thinking they were going to be long term plays but recent jumps have out performed my expectations... and I am no longer quite so sure.
Currently long on
Apple at 101, 10% increase - I figure this one still a hold.
Tesla at 185, 31% increase - I believe in the product but frankly it looks overbought.
Go Pro at 11.7, 16% increase - mostly all in one day due them hiring an Apple designer which won't fix any of their problems.
Go Pro looks like it's just broke out of a long term down trend may get some follow through today.I bought the below thinking they were going to be long term plays but recent jumps have out performed my expectations... and I am no longer quite so sure.
Currently long on
Apple at 101, 10% increase - I figure this one still a hold.
Tesla at 185, 31% increase - I believe in the product but frankly it looks overbought.
Go Pro at 11.7, 16% increase - mostly all in one day due them hiring an Apple designer which won't fix any of their problems.
Tesla difficult one, isn't overbought on a technical view, looks like it wants higher still but in desperate need of some consolidation first. It also has a really clean trend line all the way up from that 135 low, you could use that to get out if it breaks it.
Apple does look bit overbought in the short term.
All of those have earnings coming up soon so that's your main risk to your profits, if your no longer sure it's easy sell them you've made great profits anyway! Worst case scenario you miss out on some additional gains can always reassess after earnings risk is out of the way.
Edited by twinturboz on Thursday 14th April 11:52
Not that you should listen to me but if Tsla breaks 251 I'm taking a small short.
Edited by twinturboz on Thursday 14th April 19:03
twinturboz said:
Anyone brave enough to hold oil short over the weekend. Personally think this whole Doha meeting is a laugh.
Day 1 seems to have been a disaster. Iranian total no-show will force Saudi's to show their intentions. I suspect that they are prepared to inflict more pain for longer, but others on OPEC are in real distress and wil push for some sort of freeze. Expectations of a deal are pretty low hence anything less that a complete collapse of talks likely to be supportive. Can't see anyone being able to actively pump more oil anyway as spare capacity close to zero (despite what Saudi claimed earlier...).I see Brent ending the week roughly where it finished last.
Helicopter123 said:
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I see Brent ending the week roughly where it finished last.
As in finishing this coming week where we finished Friday? If so, not so sure. Oil ran up last week in anticipation of this meeting, I'm of the opinion no production freeze will lead to a sell off this week. Technically oil is still in an overall downtrend and short term overbought, think we go back to at least testing last weeks lows if the meeting doesn't lead to anything. I see Brent ending the week roughly where it finished last.
traxx said:
So oil has opened this evening down 6% - so obviously going to happen but after all the hedge funds had pushed it up last week on no news took a brave person to hold a big short over the weekend
Brent only marginally lower despite the Doha wash out. Improving fundamentals leading markets to look towards supply/demand rebalancing? Interesting that most financial institutions see Oil lower, while the commodity specialists more bullish.Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff