Share tips thread

[egomeister]

Alpinestars said:

PapaJohns said:

I mentioned this a week or so ago but Interserve shares are down to £2.90 after a hefty fine on a project/economy etc , for the past 6yrs or so Iv more than doubled my money through there 3yr share save scheme,apart from this year but it's money back .
The shares nearly hit £7.50 this time last year and a £900 investment returned £2200

Gold ? how would you go about buying and selling ?

Buy shares in a gold miner, eg Rangold. Good correlation with the price of gold.

It's a different way of backing the same horse, but there are caveats. Its a leveraged effect, so great on the way up but less so on the way down...

[bad company]

Ozzie Osmond said:

bad company said:

Ozzie Osmond said:

Well, FTSE looks remarkably cheerful today!

Wonder whether on Friday it'll be sunning itself at Goodwood Festival of Speed or sinking into the mud at Glastonbury....

Dunno but I'm not buying again until next week. I haven't sold any of my holdings tho.

I'll be honest - I was buying when it was around 7000 in Spring 2015 and I was buying through Spring 2016 as well. As always, time will tell.

One thing I do know is that anyone who has been buying the market steadily through the last 10 to 15 years has made a tidy wedge.

I'm not really putting new money in but will be reinvesting dividend income. As I said I will wait for next week.

[ExPat2B]

Gold.... its an interesting one. There are a few ways to do it, each with its own drawbacks and advantages.

1. Physical Gold.

Advantage : The ultimate hedge, even if nuclear war occurs it will retain some value.

For smallish amounts 1 ounce ingots with paper work are good, and can be shifted on ebay, and there are some London dealers who will give you 98% of the daily spot price. Of course, if gold is on a big slide, these deals will dry up and you may only be able to get scrap value which is around 50-60% of the current spot price. Coins like Krugerrands ( if below the CGT threshhold ) are good as they have a high gold percentage

2. Physical Gold in a investment company.

You can find companies who will allow you to buy their gold and sell back through them. Some charge for storage facilities, and there are various spreads. The advantage is that is probably the most efficient way to buy and sell gold over a number of years timeframe

The problem with this method is that you are entirely reliant on the company remaining solvent ( or not being a scam or ponzi scheme ) if there is a problem may end up with nothing or only a percentage return of your investment.

3. Shares in a ETF

The safest way to invest, however it does not track the spot price well and decays over time, so not very efficient.

4. Shares in a gold mining company.

These seem to track the spot price much better than ETF's, and some can even do better than the spot price, however, if you pick the wrong company you can lose everything. If you were to invest in the top 10 mining company shares this may offer the best ratio of return, and long term investment security.

5. A leveraged bet on gold futures. You can obtain a leveraged bet on Gold prices for say August 16th. You roll can this over into the next month at the cost of some spread. This gets very expensive to hold for long periods, and the leveraged nature means you need to watch your risk, howevr if you "know" the gold price is going to go up or down in the short term it offers the maximum return.

Gold is a bit of a bd to trade. It tends to follow the classical pattern of bulls going up the stairs and bears jumping off a cliff and getting out during a cliff event may be painful. Its also a bad time to buy right now...people are hedging into gold because of brexit and you may see a big drop in the next few day if britain stays in, and if you want to bet on the Brexit outcome there may be better ways of doing it.

[walm]

ExPat2B said:

3. Shares in a ETF

The safest way to invest, however it does not track the spot price well and decays over time, so not very efficient.

I don't know what you mean by "decays over time" but I usually go for GLD which given the volatility and accounting for the fees + storage costs - really is a pretty good track to the gold price, IMO.

[traxx]

ExPat2B said:

Gold.... its an interesting one. There are a few ways to do it, each with its own drawbacks and advantages.

1. Physical Gold.

Advantage : The ultimate hedge, even if nuclear war occurs it will retain some value.

For smallish amounts 1 ounce ingots with paper work are good, and can be shifted on ebay, and there are some London dealers who will give you 98% of the daily spot price. Of course, if gold is on a big slide, these deals will dry up and you may only be able to get scrap value which is around 50-60% of the current spot price. Coins like Krugerrands ( if below the CGT threshhold ) are good as they have a high gold percentage

2. Physical Gold in a investment company.

You can find companies who will allow you to buy their gold and sell back through them. Some charge for storage facilities, and there are various spreads. The advantage is that is probably the most efficient way to buy and sell gold over a number of years timeframe

The problem with this method is that you are entirely reliant on the company remaining solvent ( or not being a scam or ponzi scheme ) if there is a problem may end up with nothing or only a percentage return of your investment.

3. Shares in a ETF

The safest way to invest, however it does not track the spot price well and decays over time, so not very efficient.

4. Shares in a gold mining company.

These seem to track the spot price much better than ETF's, and some can even do better than the spot price, however, if you pick the wrong company you can lose everything. If you were to invest in the top 10 mining company shares this may offer the best ratio of return, and long term investment security.

5. A leveraged bet on gold futures. You can obtain a leveraged bet on Gold prices for say August 16th. You roll can this over into the next month at the cost of some spread. This gets very expensive to hold for long periods, and the leveraged nature means you need to watch your risk, howevr if you "know" the gold price is going to go up or down in the short term it offers the maximum return.

Gold is a bit of a bd to trade. It tends to follow the classical pattern of bulls going up the stairs and bears jumping off a cliff and getting out during a cliff event may be painful. Its also a bad time to buy right now...people are hedging into gold because of brexit and you may see a big drop in the next few day if britain stays in, and if you want to bet on the Brexit outcome there may be better ways of doing it.

Surely the easiest trade if you want to hold it is simply to buy a long-dated futures contract - like Comex Gold Dec-17 then you won't have any of the contract role issues?

[walm]

traxx said:

Surely the easiest trade if you want to hold it is simply to buy a long-dated futures contract - like Comex Gold Dec-17 then you won't have any of the contract role issues?

That's usually expensive: 1-2% per annum, although similar to the tracking error and fees on GLD I guess.

[Ozzie Osmond]

Ozzie Osmond said:

Well, FTSE looks remarkably cheerful today!

Wonder whether on Friday it'll be sunning itself at Goodwood Festival of Speed or sinking into the mud at Glastonbury....

...and already up 1.5% this morning. Hmmmm.

[ExPat2B]

walm said:

ExPat2B said:

3. Shares in a ETF

The safest way to invest, however it does not track the spot price well and decays over time, so not very efficient.

I don't know what you mean by "decays over time" but I usually go for GLD which given the volatility and accounting for the fees + storage costs - really is a pretty good track to the gold price, IMO.

You know what, GLD does look very close indeed !

[twinturboz]

I'd say the remain vote is pretty much priced in here could end up being sell the news on the remain result.

The big shock to the markets would be a leave result, gut says gold comes off a bit but should be a buying opportunity in the longer term.

Edited by twinturboz on Thursday 23 June 13:00

[walm]

twinturboz said:

I'd say the remain vote is pretty much priced in here could end up being sell the news on the remain result.

This. +1.

[traxx]

walm said:

traxx said:

Surely the easiest trade if you want to hold it is simply to buy a long-dated futures contract - like Comex Gold Dec-17 then you won't have any of the contract role issues?

That's usually expensive: 1-2% per annum, although similar to the tracking error and fees on GLD I guess.

How do you work that out - transaction cost is next to nothing, so your only cost is the cost of capital on your margining
Certainly a fraction of the cost of buying physical or ETFs

[walm]

traxx said:

walm said:

traxx said:

Surely the easiest trade if you want to hold it is simply to buy a long-dated futures contract - like Comex Gold Dec-17 then you won't have any of the contract role issues?

That's usually expensive: 1-2% per annum, although similar to the tracking error and fees on GLD I guess.

How do you work that out - transaction cost is next to nothing, so your only cost is the cost of capital on your margining
Certainly a fraction of the cost of buying physical or ETFs

Any options contract will build in a price for the volatility of the underlying commodity as well as the time value of the money.
That's why when I just looked, the price of a Dec-17 was $1,295 vs. a gold price of $1,267.
If you look at an options monitor it shows a higher and higher price the longer dated the option.

Simply put, the option isn't free, you pay over the price of the underlying.
In this case a 2.3% premium, which translates to 1.5% per annum.

You're right that you can do it on margin rather than pay the full amount up front but with a TINY cost of capital these days, that doesn't save you a huge amount... but you're right.

[traxx]

walm said:

traxx said:

walm said:

traxx said:

Surely the easiest trade if you want to hold it is simply to buy a long-dated futures contract - like Comex Gold Dec-17 then you won't have any of the contract role issues?

That's usually expensive: 1-2% per annum, although similar to the tracking error and fees on GLD I guess.

How do you work that out - transaction cost is next to nothing, so your only cost is the cost of capital on your margining
Certainly a fraction of the cost of buying physical or ETFs

Any options contract will build in a price for the volatility of the underlying commodity as well as the time value of the money.
That's why when I just looked, the price of a Dec-17 was $1,295 vs. a gold price of $1,267.
If you look at an options monitor it shows a higher and higher price the longer dated the option.

Simply put, the option isn't free, you pay over the price of the underlying.
In this case a 2.3% premium, which translates to 1.5% per annum.

You're right that you can do it on margin rather than pay the full amount up front but with a TINY cost of capital these days, that doesn't save you a huge amount... but you're right.

I said if you bullish buy the future not the option on the future

[twinturboz]

Markets just flushed big time. Pound getting slammed. FTSE futures down 5% at one point.

Edited by twinturboz on Friday 24th June 02:49

[twinturboz]

Pound just ran stops might make it below 1.38 if it continues down.

Make that 1.36 WOW!

Edited by twinturboz on Friday 24th June 03:47

[g4ry13]

Wish i'd got some out of the money options.

Soros may end up being wrong for once.

[twinturboz]

g4ry13 said:

Wish i'd got some out of the money options.

Soros may end up being wrong for once.

I've just been trading the £ and the US futures all night it's been absolutely insane. Looking for a bounce but it's a waterfall right now. Below 1.35 and a reversal is what I'm looking for.

[g4ry13]

twinturboz said:

g4ry13 said:

Wish i'd got some out of the money options.

Soros may end up being wrong for once.

I've just been trading the £ and the US futures all night it's been absolutely insane. Looking for a bounce but it's a waterfall right now.

Just go on Betfair and bet 17-1 on staying in. Much better than trying to time a bounce! Do you sit there and watch the results and try to trade on speed of execution?

[twinturboz]

g4ry13 said:

Just go on Betfair and bet 17-1 on staying in. Much better than trying to time a bounce! Do you sit there and watch the results and try to trade on speed of execution?

Just trading off the 1 min and 5 min charts. It will bounce soon. That makes the pound lowest since 1985. Should have bought Gold too missed that one.

Edited by twinturboz on Friday 24th June 04:10

[g4ry13]

twinturboz said:

g4ry13 said:

Just go on Betfair and bet 17-1 on staying in. Much better than trying to time a bounce! Do you sit there and watch the results and try to trade on speed of execution?

Just trading off the 1 min and 5 min charts. It will bounce soon.

Depends what sort of bounce you go for.

I've been watching it over the last few hours and it has looked (up to now) like a more dangerous bet trying to pick longs in this.

Also buy Bitcoin - same logic as gold.