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[traxx]

twinturboz said:

Wti next stop $41 long as closes below last weeks lows today.  Assuming it blows past $45.65 on way down.

Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 30th August 16:03

Not sure the technicals are as important as the DOE stats tomorrow - any unexpected build on crude or stats should knock the price down

[twinturboz]

traxx said:

Not sure the technicals are as important as the DOE stats tomorrow - any unexpected build on crude or stats should knock the price down

Yup inventories are un-tradeable. But overall theory is starting to work regarding inflation expectations, Gold is obviously feeling it now and long as the $ continues to rise should make its way across to oil and the Spx.

The fed of course has every idea what it's doing with regards to the $

This within 1% a day movement has gone on too long think it's approaching a 90yr record, after end of month or even on Friday after the numbers maybe we can get back to some proper movement.

[DonkeyApple]

twinturboz said:

Ozzie Osmond said:

Are you able to explain the mechanism for that?

Nope well not exactly otherwise I'd be some billionare hedgefund owner .

What I mean is no one is really going to know what the catalyst is otherwise it wouldn't be a black swan event. I do agree that the next crash could well be whole economies crashing. 08 was the banks going bankrupt this time it's likely to be about governments defaulting.

It will stem from debt and valuation concerns and if it starts I don't think the central banks currently have any bullets left to stop it. Already if you look at their methods they are having a diminishing effect interest rate cuts didn't work so we had multiple rounds of QE, that's not working so well go negative rates, that's not working lets think about helicopter money and so on.

Since 2008 total government debt worldwide has doubled to $59 trillion, if you add in household corporate and bank debt then the stats say the figure is $199 trillion and that was in 2014, it's probably a discussion for a much deeper thread but you only have to look at the fed's reaction to their one hike and immediate pullback from 5 hikes to know that of sole importance is price stability and to hold the market up.

On the flip side if you think this massive experiment since 2008 will work and the market will move to substantial growth which eventually leads to all the debt being paid off then all well and good. What's clear is they'll try and do everything possible to prop up the markets for as long as possible.

The alternate view to consider is that asset values have not risen at all but that what they are measured in has slumped in worth, which is what you'd expect to happen if more and more of it has been being made.

Sure, by all logic we can look at assets and say their meteoric rise must lead to a correction but when we consider that the product that they are being valued against, cash, has had its supply massively increased then there is merit in the argument that assets haven't risen in value but rather cash has fallen.

[Ozzie Osmond]

^^ I tend to that point of view. Cash, other than as a method of exchange or diversification, is these days pretty worthless.

We have been and remain IMO in a very curious position where there is numerical inflation but not very much real inflation. Fortunately the position I took 10 years ago in fear of real inflation has proved effective as things have actually unfolded. [The thought of Bonds still gives me the jitters.]

[twinturboz]

Crude, out of shorts now could still go $41 but also might bottom around here 43.50, don't want to get caught in a short squeeze.

Gold interesting spot right at long term uptrend, can't quite figure out how much more downside but tomorrow's job numbers might give better idea. Ideally was looking for sub $1300-$1280 to start to scale in for a longer term buy & hold. Shame you can't hold some of those etf's in an Isa.

[avinalarf]

I need advice re. Poundland.
As you know Steinhoff is bidding for the company but Elliot now have 25% of the company.
What might be the implications of this manoeuvring on the share price and why ?
For the past week they've stayed pretty flat at around 244/5p.
I would have thought there might be more volativity,why is this not the case ?

[walm]

avinalarf said:

I need advice re. Poundland.
As you know Steinhoff is bidding for the company but Elliot now have 25% of the company.
What might be the implications of this manoeuvring on the share price and why ?
For the past week they've stayed pretty flat at around 244/5p.
I would have thought there might be more volativity,why is this not the case ?

Because there is an offer on the table that everyone expects them (Poundland holders) to take.

[avinalarf]

walm said:

avinalarf said:

I need advice re. Poundland.
As you know Steinhoff is bidding for the company but Elliot now have 25% of the company.
What might be the implications of this manoeuvring on the share price and why ?
For the past week they've stayed pretty flat at around 244/5p.
I would have thought there might be more volativity,why is this not the case ?

Because there is an offer on the table that everyone expects them (Poundland holders) to take.

But Steinhoff has upped its offer to 227p.
So why isn't that reflected in share price ?
What am I missing ?

[walm]

avinalarf said:

walm said:

avinalarf said:

I need advice re. Poundland.
As you know Steinhoff is bidding for the company but Elliot now have 25% of the company.
What might be the implications of this manoeuvring on the share price and why ?
For the past week they've stayed pretty flat at around 244/5p.
I would have thought there might be more volativity,why is this not the case ?

Because there is an offer on the table that everyone expects them (Poundland holders) to take.

But Steinhoff has upped its offer to 227p.
So why isn't that reflected in share price ?
What am I missing ?

You're missing the point that PLND is on 224p not 244/5p.

If you are asking why it's at 224p not 227p - that's because there is always a non-zero risk that SNH (or any bidder) walks away or for some left-field reason the deal fails.

There are dedicated event driven risk-arb funds who's entire raison d'etre is to extrapolate value from the spread between the price and the offer (which is what you are talking about). They tend to make lots of little wins and the odd horrendous loss when a deal fails out of the blue.

I don't work for one of those funds but have been involved in a few similar deals.

That spread frankly is very small in my limited experience.

[avinalarf]

walm said:

You're missing the point that PLND is on 224p not 244/5p.

If you are asking why it's at 224p not 227p - that's because there is always a non-zero risk that SNH (or any bidder) walks away or for some left-field reason the deal fails.

There are dedicated event driven risk-arb funds who's entire raison d'etre is to extrapolate value from the spread between the price and the offer (which is what you are talking about). They tend to make lots of little wins and the odd horrendous loss when a deal fails out of the blue.

I don't work for one of those funds but have been involved in a few similar deals.

That spread frankly is very small in my limited experience.

OK.
But notwithstanding the bid ,PLND is now an established brand in the discount end of the market and when I go in ,they are always busy and developing new lines.
They are well below float price.
Sure the current £/$ rate will cause a few short term problems,but not insurmountable.

[walm]

avinalarf said:

walm said:

You're missing the point that PLND is on 224p not 244/5p.

If you are asking why it's at 224p not 227p - that's because there is always a non-zero risk that SNH (or any bidder) walks away or for some left-field reason the deal fails.

There are dedicated event driven risk-arb funds who's entire raison d'etre is to extrapolate value from the spread between the price and the offer (which is what you are talking about). They tend to make lots of little wins and the odd horrendous loss when a deal fails out of the blue.

I don't work for one of those funds but have been involved in a few similar deals.

That spread frankly is very small in my limited experience.

OK.
But notwithstanding the bid ,PLND is now an established brand in the discount end of the market and when I go in ,they are always busy and developing new lines.
They are well below float price.
Sure the current £/$ rate will cause a few short term problems,but not insurmountable.

You keep beating this drum.

So I can only repeat what I have said on this thread and elsewhere when you asked before.

Poundland's fundamentals just don't matter.
The bid is ALL that matters.

[Herbs]

I'm looking at getting into day trading with the odd few playing a longer game and something like Plus500 sounds appealing as you can dip in and out whenever you have spare time and on whatever platform however, I have heard very mixed stories about them. so.........

What do you guys suggest to use?

I'm only looking to dapple up £2k to start (i'll leave the larger stuff to IFA).

[avinalarf]

walm said:

You keep beating this drum.

So I can only repeat what I have said on this thread and elsewhere when you asked before.

Poundland's fundamentals just don't matter.
The bid is ALL that matters.

OKey Dokey.

[walm]

avinalarf said:

walm said:

You keep beating this drum.

So I can only repeat what I have said on this thread and elsewhere when you asked before.

Poundland's fundamentals just don't matter.
The bid is ALL that matters.

OKey Dokey.

If the bid fails THEN the fundamentals matter.
And I really don't know much about PLND.
However, I know two things about the stock price:
1. Before the bid it was trading as low as 140p - I am sure it wouldn't go back down there but it gives you a sense of the risk.
2. The fact that it is trading at a discount to the bid price today STRONGLY implies that if the bid fails the price will fall.

[avinalarf]

walm said:

avinalarf said:

walm said:

You keep beating this drum.

So I can only repeat what I have said on this thread and elsewhere when you asked before.

Poundland's fundamentals just don't matter.
The bid is ALL that matters.

OKey Dokey.

If the bid fails THEN the fundamentals matter.
And I really don't know much about PLND.
However, I know two things about the stock price:
1. Before the bid it was trading as low as 140p - I am sure it wouldn't go back down there but it gives you a sense of the risk.
2. The fact that it is trading at a discount to the bid price today STRONGLY implies that if the bid fails the price will fall.

So Elliot is holding 25%,which suggests that they are ......what ?
Are they just taking a big punt ?
We know that the purchase of the 99p stores have caused short term problems but don't you think,long term,that the fundamentals are sound enough.

[kiethton]

avinalarf said:

walm said:

avinalarf said:

walm said:

You keep beating this drum.

So I can only repeat what I have said on this thread and elsewhere when you asked before.

Poundland's fundamentals just don't matter.
The bid is ALL that matters.

OKey Dokey.

If the bid fails THEN the fundamentals matter.
And I really don't know much about PLND.
However, I know two things about the stock price:
1. Before the bid it was trading as low as 140p - I am sure it wouldn't go back down there but it gives you a sense of the risk.
2. The fact that it is trading at a discount to the bid price today STRONGLY implies that if the bid fails the price will fall.

So Elliot is holding 25%,which suggests that they are ......what ?
Are they just taking a big punt ?
We know that the purchase of the 99p stores have caused short term problems but don't you think,long term,that the fundamentals are sound enough.

Read up on what they did when Quintain was bought by LoneStar last year - should give a good indication of what they do

[walm]

avinalarf said:

So Elliot is holding 25%,which suggests that they are ......what ?
Are they just taking a big punt ?
We know that the purchase of the 99p stores have caused short term problems but don't you think,long term,that the fundamentals are sound enough.

When they initially bought their stake they were obviously hoping for a big jump in the offer price.
That didn't really happen.
I am not sure why they are still holding, but I guess if it completes in say 3 months, that's a 5.5% IRR which isn't terrible.

As I said I don't know about the fundamentals.
All I know is that the deal looks like it is expected to go through.

At which point all the holders of PLND stock will get given a cheque for £2.27p for each share they hold and the business will merge into Steinhoff's operations.

So once again - the fundamentals don't matter if the bid goes through.

[avinalarf]

walm said:

avinalarf said:

So Elliot is holding 25%,which suggests that they are ......what ?
Are they just taking a big punt ?
We know that the purchase of the 99p stores have caused short term problems but don't you think,long term,that the fundamentals are sound enough.

When they initially bought their stake they were obviously hoping for a big jump in the offer price.
That didn't really happen.
I am not sure why they are still holding, but I guess if it completes in say 3 months, that's a 5.5% IRR which isn't terrible.

As I said I don't know about the fundamentals.
All I know is that the deal looks like it is expected to go through.

At which point all the holders of PLND stock will get given a cheque for £2.27p for each share they hold and the business will merge into Steinhoff's operations.

So once again - the fundamentals don't matter if the bid goes through.

Firstly......Thanks for your input,it is appreciated.
So shareholders just get the cheque,that's it ?
You can't hold onto the shares ?
So if a person had purchased say 10,000 shares at 2.24 you'd have made £300 less SD and charges already paid and that's it ?

Edited by avinalarf on Friday 2nd September 18:33

[avinalarf]

kiethton said:

Read up on what they did when Quintain was bought by LoneStar last year - should give a good indication of what they do

Thank you,I've now read up.
Well they put their money where their mouth is.

[MisterJD]

avinalarf said:

Firstly......Thanks for your input,it is appreciated.
So shareholders just get the cheque,that's it ?
You can't hold onto the shares ?
So if one bought the shares at 2.24 you'd have made £300 less SD and charges already paid and that's it ?

It's an all cash offer so that's what you get. You are being bought out for cash, which you could use to buy shares in Steinhoff if you wanted to.