Share tips thread

[eps]

PapaJohns said:

eps said:

PapaJohns said:

I'm by no means up on my share dealing, but how about buying Interserve shares ?

They were upto £7.40 last year,a recent fine on a contract in Scotland has seen the shares drop below £3 this week,

Dunno, they seem to have increased turnover but reduced profit.... What's the reason behind that?

ETA : Possibly going to drop out of FTSE250.. I think they've got a little more lower to go, then....

Edited by eps on Thursday 12th May 10:14

£2.90 back in May, now £4.26

They dipped after May and are now rising - I haven't looked at the recent Half Yearly results, which would be worth looking at before investing.

[walm]

DonkeyApple said:

avinalarf said:

i see that Poundland shares have a sell price of 225p as I write this post.
Why are peeps selling at this price, when if they wait a couple of weeks they'll get the bid price of 227p ?
Are they just desperate for the cash ?

It's the pricing in of risk and convenience, as I mentioned above but you were probably too busy shagging.

For 1% you can take your money out now and put it to work elsewhere. It has no more work to do in this investment, the play is over so you can either sit tight and wait or grab the cash now. In addition, you are also paying to convert to cash and eliminate all possible risk of the deal tripping up, although if the market is taking stock at 225 it is pretty confident that isn't going to happen. also, it was mentioned earlier that it's an all cash takeover? In which case their is no buyer's share price fluctuation to have any impact on the target's price and deviate it.

So, in short, the market is offering you an early exit and showing you its charge for doing so.

This is wrong.
This is why it was trading below 227p up until yesterday.
It's at 225p today because that's all you get now.

The time-value of money and deal-risk are essentially zero from when the vote went through at lunchtime yesterday.

[walm]

avinalarf said:

Let me try to explain something.
I'm new to buying shares directly,that's pretty obvious.
This is not my day job,my day job takes up 10//12 hours a day ,six days a week.
When I get home I'm knackered.
I appreciate that for those of you whose business it is to trade shares I appear a clutz,but I do understand how retailing works and they are they only shares I buy into directly,otherwise I just pick funds.
I thank you for helping me to understand the fundamentals and apologise for my ignorance.
I should really take a course but it's difficult for me to find the time.
Reading about it is obviously useful but it just doesn't really do it for me,I need the interaction,then it goes in.

I don't think there is any need to apologise and frankly, I think here is a great place to ask questions.
People will usually try to help as best they can.
You can get anything from DA's sophisticated explanation as to deal-risk/time-value of money arbitrage for the discount ahead of yesterday all the way to the (fairly) simple mechanics of something going ex-div.
And you need to know it all!

(Just don't give up the day job and start day trading!!)

[DonkeyApple]

avinalarf said:

Let me try to explain something.
I'm new to buying shares directly,that's pretty obvious.
This is not my day job,my day job takes up 10//12 hours a day ,six days a week.
When I get home I'm knackered.
I appreciate that for those of you whose business it is to trade shares I appear a clutz,but I do understand how retailing works and they are they only shares I buy into directly,otherwise I just pick funds.
I thank you for helping me to understand the fundamentals and apologise for my ignorance.
I should really take a course but it's difficult for me to find the time.
Reading about it is obviously useful but it just doesn't really do it for me,I need the interaction,then it goes in.

Don't worry. No one is having a go. Writing tends to be a little blunt but it's not 'having a go'. Quite the opposite. If you've not been through a corporate action before then it can be a steep learning curve.

The value of this thread over the dedicated financial forums is that there aren't legions of gamblers talking their own book up or scared private investors trying to reassure each other with any old made up tosh to convince themselves that their reckless, ill thought out punt is really a stunningly brilliant investment call that would shame Buffett.

Without all that tromboning what you tend to get on this thread is clarity of perspective and reality. People who actually know and understand how the mechanism works rather than a bunch of fanatics who all scream 'it's the market makers stop hunting' as the answer to any negative movement. They don't have any skin in your game so they aren't going to be replying to you blowing smoke up your bum because they're in the same boat of not knowing but with money in.

Traditional financial forums are just self help groups for gamblers, playgrounds for conmen and a haven for the deluded and those who want to be deluded.

[avinalarf]

Thank you Walm and Donkey.
I'm not day trading,put it on the back burner,at least until I can devote more time to understanding what it's all about.
Frankly,I don't think it's for me,my risk appetite is confined to dealing in that which I understand.
I was speaking to an IFA a few days ago,works for a very well known company.
I was surprised how little he knew,about business and the world economy,in general.
He could speak about the funds that he was selling and other financial matters such as Inheritance tax mitigation but didn't appear to know much outside his specific field,rather put me off.
You can't really teach someone how to run a business from books.
Sure you can grasp the financial mechanisms,and that's very important,but the really gritty stuff comes from experience,
getting your hands dirty.

[walm]

avinalarf said:

I was speaking to an IFA a few days ago,works for a very well known company.
I was surprised how little he knew,about business and the world economy,in general.
He could speak about the funds that he was selling and other financial matters such as Inheritance tax mitigation but didn't appear to know much outside his specific field,rather put me off.

IFAs shouldn't be giving individual stock tips. That's not their expertise.
Remember that the iBanks each have dedicated teams of 3-5 people to cover a sector of perhaps just 10 companies.
That's the level of human resource you need to have good knowledge of those individual stocks.

[twinturboz]

dom9 said:

Have some replies gone missing since DA's post?

Anyone got any views on the USD:GBP?

GBP seems to be strengthening at the moment. I have my savings in USD and for purely selfish reasons would like to see a drop to $1.20:£1...

Is it going to happen?

Depends on time frame, was too loaded to the short side, I think most were expecting what you were 1.20 and below. Pattern suggests it want higher with around 1.38 a possible target in the short term, obviously the Fed would have an impact but unlikely that they hike in September.

If the BOE decide to cut again in December then maybe you'll get that 1.20 coupled with a US hike in December too.

[avinalarf]

walm said:

avinalarf said:

I was speaking to an IFA a few days ago,works for a very well known company.
I was surprised how little he knew,about business and the world economy,in general.
He could speak about the funds that he was selling and other financial matters such as Inheritance tax mitigation but didn't appear to know much outside his specific field,rather put me off.

IFAs shouldn't be giving individual stock tips. That's not their expertise.
Remember that the iBanks each have dedicated teams of 3-5 people to cover a sector of perhaps just 10 companies.
That's the level of human resource you need to have good knowledge of those individual stocks.

I should have said FA not IFA,as he was from SJW.
Before you tell me,yes, I know about their charges.
I was not asking him for stock tips,just discussing the different funds his company is offering.
Generally discussing the different areas of the World ,e.g.China and India.
I'm not saying he was ignorant,just limited in his knowledge.

[walm]

avinalarf said:

I should have said FA not IFA,as he was from SJW.
Before you tell me,yes, I know about their charges.
I was not asking him for stock tips,just discussing the different funds his company is offering.
Generally discussing the different areas of the World ,e.g.China and India.
I'm not saying he was ignorant,just limited in his knowledge.

Never heard of SJW.
SJP?

[avinalarf]

walm said:

avinalarf said:

I should have said FA not IFA,as he was from SJW.
Before you tell me,yes, I know about their charges.
I was not asking him for stock tips,just discussing the different funds his company is offering.
Generally discussing the different areas of the World ,e.g.China and India.
I'm not saying he was ignorant,just limited in his knowledge.

Never heard of SJW.
SJP?

Sorrrrrrry........SJP.
Trying to multitask ,not to successfully.

[dom9]

twinturboz said:

Depends on time frame, was too loaded to the short side, I think most were expecting what you were 1.20 and below. Pattern suggests it want higher with around 1.38 a possible target in the short term, obviously the Fed would have an impact but unlikely that they hike in September.

If the BOE decide to cut again in December then maybe you'll get that 1.20 coupled with a US hike in December too.

That's my view as well... It's whether Fed hike and we drop that's the question...

I won't be pulling any USD out so I guess I believe it will happen.

I'm used to $1.5:£1 anyway, so I am in good shape for a while

[twinturboz]

dom9 said:

That's my view as well... It's whether Fed hike and we drop that's the question...

Think the market is at 20% chance of hike in Sept, 55% December currently.

[avinalarf]

DonkeyApple said:

Don't worry. No one is having a go. Writing tends to be a little blunt but it's not 'having a go'. Quite the opposite. If you've not been through a corporate action before then it can be a steep learning curve.

The value of this thread over the dedicated financial forums is that there aren't legions of gamblers talking their own book up or scared private investors trying to reassure each other with any old made up tosh to convince themselves that their reckless, ill thought out punt is really a stunningly brilliant investment call that would shame Buffett.

Without all that tromboning what you tend to get on this thread is clarity of perspective and reality. People who actually know and understand how the mechanism works rather than a bunch of fanatics who all scream 'it's the market makers stop hunting' as the answer to any negative movement. They don't have any skin in your game so they aren't going to be replying to you blowing smoke up your bum because they're in the same boat of not knowing but with money in.

Traditional financial forums are just self help groups for gamblers, playgrounds for conmen and a haven for the deluded and those who want to be deluded.

I do not take umbrage over the responses I get.
I understand that ignorance of the basics must frustrate the more expert of you,especially those that do it for a living.
You say " how the mechanism works",now that is the thing I'd really like to understand .
How does the mechanism work ?
So a big generalisation .....all things being equal......nothing exceptional happening .....on the day.
I've been watching a few shares closely.
Every day ....up a bit .......down a bit....make or lose a few bob.....no change in the underlying fundamentals .....no unexpected announcements.
It's a bit like a casino....a bluff here.....a call there.
Apart from that there's personal sentiment or practical requirements.
No other business I know works like that......they don't change their prices every two minutes according to the immediate circumstances at that moment.
p.s. I realise that commodities change in a similar fashion but usually there is some understandable raison d'etre for the changes.

[DonkeyApple]

If it irritated then I don't think people would reply. In my case I just have a very blunt style of writing that I am aware upsets some people on PH so I'm forever adding fking stupid smilies to try and let people know I'm not being rude or bad tempered. It often doesn't work.

Don't forget, other business only don't operate like this because they can't not because they don't want to. For example, take the local corner shop he sells cheap umbrellas for £5 but when it rains he swaps the price tag to £10. He's making a market based on likely supply v demand. Supermarkets analyse vast amounts of data and price their goods to achieve maximum profit. Petrol stations are a great example. The further away a competitor is the more they can charge above fair value, likewise if a retailer wants to take consumers from a competitor they can discount prices long enough to get the new customers used to going there instead then put prices back up.

I think the real difference with the stock market is that this is just laid bare and is more obvious but the mechanism is at the route of all commercial activity.

Edited by DonkeyApple on Thursday 8th September 14:52

[walm]

avinalarf said:

So a big generalisation .....all things being equal......nothing exceptional happening .....on the day.
I've been watching a few shares closely.
Every day ....up a bit .......down a bit....make or lose a few bob.....no change in the underlying fundamentals .....no unexpected announcements.

I disagree.
More often than not there is a clear reason for the move in a given day:
- Perhaps, a read-through from a competitor.
- General market news such as the Fed today.
- Ongoing sector rotation (e.g. bank rally we have had in the last couple of weeks).
- Technical selling pressure.
- Big holder changing their sizing.
- Analyst downgrade/upgrade.
etc... etc...

Pick a daily stock move in say the retailers you have followed and I would most likely know why it moved that day.

[NRS]

avinalarf said:

I do not take umbrage over the responses I get.
I understand that ignorance of the basics must frustrate the more expert of you,especially those that do it for a living.
You say " how the mechanism works",now that is the thing I'd really like to understand .
How does the mechanism work ?
So a big generalisation .....all things being equal......nothing exceptional happening .....on the day.
I've been watching a few shares closely.
Every day ....up a bit .......down a bit....make or lose a few bob.....no change in the underlying fundamentals .....no unexpected announcements.
It's a bit like a casino....a bluff here.....a call there.
Apart from that there's personal sentiment or practical requirements.
No other business I know works like that......they don't change their prices every two minutes according to the immediate circumstances at that moment.
p.s. I realise that commodities change in a similar fashion but usually there is some understandable raison d'etre for the changes.

I think it's just down to a lot of the more experienced people here having seen so many people come in with not too much clue and then have their money wiped out because they didn't really know what they were doing. Often they do this despite asking for advice, as they then go and completely ignore it because the the advice they get isn't the "get rich quick" that they are basically promised by others. The problem is a lot of those giving the get-rich quick advice are those that either have no clue and have been lucky, or are those benefitting by taking the money off those who don't have a clue. So over time the advice tends to become short and precise rather than spending ages spelling out something for it just to be ignored a lot of the time.

At least that's the general impression I get from being on here for wee while.

[avinalarf]

DonkeyApple said:

If it irritated then I don't think people would reply. In my case I just have a very blunt style of writing that I am aware upsets some people on PH so I'm forever adding fking stupid smilies to try and let people know I'm not being rude or bad tempered. It often doesn't work.

Don't forget, other business only don't operate like this because they can't not because they don't want to. For example, take the local corner shop he sells cheap umbrellas for £5 but when it rains he swaps the price tag to £10. He's making a market based on likely supply v demand. Supermarkets analyse vast amounts of data and price their goods to achieve maximum profit. Petrol stations are a great example. The further away a competitor is the more they can charge above fair value, likewise if a retailer wants to take consumers from a competitor they can discount prices long enough to get the new customers used to going there instead then put prices back up.

I think the real difference with the stock market is that this is just laid bare and is more obvious but the mechanism is at the route of all commercial activity.

Edited by DonkeyApple on Thursday 8th September 14:52

Apart from petrol stations,I don't think your analogies really stand up to scrutiny ( smiley face ).
If a LCS put up the price of his brollys when it rained it wouldn't do his reputation and goodwill with his regular customers much good.
In fact continuous fecking about with prices,like Gap do,just means a lot of peeps just wait a couple of weeks for the "Special offer" or "sale price".
With supermarkets and business generally the mantras,"the right product at the right price" and "know your customer" stand good for me.
The supply and demand factor is always a factor ,and there's the herd mentality,but it doesn't really answer my underlying comment.
I'm sorry, but I don't think,or not really sure,that you've nailed it. ( very smiley face and a thumbs up ).
I really expected you to give me a " meaning of life" type explanation ,a big ask possibly. ( another smiley face that's grinning ).

[avinalarf]

walm said:

avinalarf said:

So a big generalisation .....all things being equal......nothing exceptional happening .....on the day.
I've been watching a few shares closely.
Every day ....up a bit .......down a bit....make or lose a few bob.....no change in the underlying fundamentals .....no unexpected announcements.

I disagree.
More often than not there is a clear reason for the move in a given day:
- Perhaps, a read-through from a competitor.
- General market news such as the Fed today.
- Ongoing sector rotation (e.g. bank rally we have had in the last couple of weeks).
- Technical selling pressure.
- Big holder changing their sizing.
- Analyst downgrade/upgrade.
etc... etc...

Pick a daily stock move in say the retailers you have followed and I would most likely know why it moved that day.

That's more like it.
I'll get back to you Walm ,need time to think about your reply.

[avinalarf]

OK Walm.
ABF....today circa 10p swing.
Today two largeish volume sales....9097 and 6170.

On 31st August Berenberg ( who he ) cut rating to hold.
Target price 3000p.

[avinalarf]

Whoaaa....
ABF now 3182p.......go boy go.
Big volume buy 18500....at 15.28 hours
(I reckon it'll close tonight circa 3172.... Let's see )

Edited by avinalarf on Thursday 8th September 15:46

Well ABF closed at 3165p.
Which is what I put in originally and then changed to 3172 ,two minutes later as you'll see I edited my post.
So originally spot on.
Just guess work but based on the past few days of trading.
So Walm and Donkey,I really do wonder if on any particular day , guys pick a share,ramp it up, make a few bob ,then sell and the share drops to there or thereabouts,having reverted to its "level".
Does this happen ?

Edited by avinalarf on Thursday 8th September 18:19