Share tips thread
Discussion
TheGroover said:
God knows what's gone on today, but it smells a bit. From 93 to 68 in 50 mins, then back up to 90 in another 50.
This happened with SOLG the other week. Anyone have any thoughts on SOLG? I bought in there about three years ago at 11p and spent the last three years watching it sink like a stone. I'm currently sitting just over break even and thinking maybe I should just take my money and run but it seems to be holding up well and people seem optimistic about it. But then I remember it's AIM so chances are it's just a matter of time before the reaming commences.
R8Steve said:
R8Steve said:
Anyone having a look at Pantheon resources? Currently down 50% in a week on a failed horizontal drill (vertical drill was no issue, simply trying to increase flow), seems very oversold to me.
I've jumped in at 89p.
No-one else get in on this?I've jumped in at 89p.
Now £1.14.
ETA. Thanks.
Edited by WEHGuy on Wednesday 21st September 19:14
WEHGuy said:
R8Steve said:
R8Steve said:
Anyone having a look at Pantheon resources? Currently down 50% in a week on a failed horizontal drill (vertical drill was no issue, simply trying to increase flow), seems very oversold to me.
I've jumped in at 89p.
No-one else get in on this?I've jumped in at 89p.
Now £1.14.
ETA. Thanks.
Edited by WEHGuy on Wednesday 21st September 19:14
I got in at 89p, out at 112p now back in at 102.5p today.
Going to hold now for the run up to the next well results, as always I'll be out a couple of days before the results are due though!
Oakey said:
TheGroover said:
God knows what's gone on today, but it smells a bit. From 93 to 68 in 50 mins, then back up to 90 in another 50.
This happened with SOLG the other week. Anyone have any thoughts on SOLG? I bought in there about three years ago at 11p and spent the last three years watching it sink like a stone. I'm currently sitting just over break even and thinking maybe I should just take my money and run but it seems to be holding up well and people seem optimistic about it. But then I remember it's AIM so chances are it's just a matter of time before the reaming commences.
DYOR
Very pleased that I had second thoughts about getting into SOU last week. Having read the www.lse.co.uk message board for this share, it is almost reaching cult levels of loyalty. Every post is about how they will all be rich due to the Sound Energy boss' body language screaming they are on the brink of a massive discovery.
The fact that even I have heard about some obscure AIM share implies this has been hyped to hell and that a few people are making a lot of money from the suckers who are late to the party (of which I was nearly one)
I suspect this will go down and down to nothing when they will finally admit they found nothing.
The fact that even I have heard about some obscure AIM share implies this has been hyped to hell and that a few people are making a lot of money from the suckers who are late to the party (of which I was nearly one)
I suspect this will go down and down to nothing when they will finally admit they found nothing.
Joey Deacon said:
Very pleased that I had second thoughts about getting into SOU last week. Having read the www.lse.co.uk message board for this share, it is almost reaching cult levels of loyalty. Every post is about how they will all be rich due to the Sound Energy boss' body language screaming they are on the brink of a massive discovery.
The fact that even I have heard about some obscure AIM share implies this has been hyped to hell and that a few people are making a lot of money from the suckers who are late to the party (of which I was nearly one)
I suspect this will go down and down to nothing when they will finally admit they found nothing.
It happens on EVERY oil share on AIM, possibly even every share on AIM at some point. I could name at least 20 oilers with exactly the same historic story.The fact that even I have heard about some obscure AIM share implies this has been hyped to hell and that a few people are making a lot of money from the suckers who are late to the party (of which I was nearly one)
I suspect this will go down and down to nothing when they will finally admit they found nothing.
A rule that has served me well is always go against the hype, if it's really negative, go long, if it's as you say and far too positive, go short.
Obviously I do a lot more research on my trades than just that but that is the first thing I do looking at a company.
Bar a couple that I can think of, every single AIM oiler has ended up a failed company, eventually. The opportunity to make money before that happens is still very much there though.
Will Sound be successful? I've no idea, the same as pretty much everyone else...
R8Steve said:
Joey Deacon said:
Very pleased that I had second thoughts about getting into SOU last week. Having read the www.lse.co.uk message board for this share, it is almost reaching cult levels of loyalty. Every post is about how they will all be rich due to the Sound Energy boss' body language screaming they are on the brink of a massive discovery.
The fact that even I have heard about some obscure AIM share implies this has been hyped to hell and that a few people are making a lot of money from the suckers who are late to the party (of which I was nearly one)
I suspect this will go down and down to nothing when they will finally admit they found nothing.
It happens on EVERY oil share on AIM, possibly even every share on AIM at some point. I could name at least 20 oilers with exactly the same historic story.The fact that even I have heard about some obscure AIM share implies this has been hyped to hell and that a few people are making a lot of money from the suckers who are late to the party (of which I was nearly one)
I suspect this will go down and down to nothing when they will finally admit they found nothing.
A rule that has served me well is always go against the hype, if it's really negative, go long, if it's as you say and far too positive, go short.
Obviously I do a lot more research on my trades than just that but that is the first thing I do looking at a company.
Bar a couple that I can think of, every single AIM oiler has ended up a failed company, eventually. The opportunity to make money before that happens is still very much there though.
Will Sound be successful? I've no idea, the same as pretty much everyone else...
king themselves silly over this one so I wouldnt be surprised), I would be sweating a bit!Back up to nearly 90p again from 70p yesterday with bascially no news released.
I love message boards though they are hilarious - 'wouldnt want to be out over the weekend!'
R8Steve said:
It happens on EVERY oil share on AIM, possibly even every share on AIM at some point. I could name at least 20 oilers with exactly the same historic story.
A rule that has served me well is always go against the hype, if it's really negative, go long, if it's as you say and far too positive, go short.
Obviously I do a lot more research on my trades than just that but that is the first thing I do looking at a company.
Bar a couple that I can think of, every single AIM oiler has ended up a failed company, eventually. The opportunity to make money before that happens is still very much there though.
Will Sound be successful? I've no idea, the same as pretty much everyone else...
Exactly my views on AIM oilies. Basically a gamble. Knowledge always seems painfully light and driven by rumours and general herd mentality. A rule that has served me well is always go against the hype, if it's really negative, go long, if it's as you say and far too positive, go short.
Obviously I do a lot more research on my trades than just that but that is the first thing I do looking at a company.
Bar a couple that I can think of, every single AIM oiler has ended up a failed company, eventually. The opportunity to make money before that happens is still very much there though.
Will Sound be successful? I've no idea, the same as pretty much everyone else...
walm said:
Indeed.
Some idiot will buy them.
Yup not exactly in a position of strength with their current ad revs, just speculating but buy out in the 20-25 range.Some idiot will buy them.
Personally for me, it's invaluable as a source for breaking news, far quicker than any other medium but big question is how do you monetise that.
I think under proper management it could become something serious but it's never going to attract the numbers like Facebook or become a proper social media tool.
twinturboz said:
Personally for me, it's invaluable as a source for breaking news, far quicker than any other medium but big question is how do you monetise that.
I think you can buy the feed direct from them if you want.There is some hedgie out there running an algo-driven strategy based off the raw twitter feed I believe.
Beyond that, I am not sure it is of much value to anyone.
I mean the Daily Mail just seem to regurgitate reddit with a 2-3 hour delay and they have turned that into one of the biggest news sites in the world!
ETA - it died: http://venturebeat.com/2012/05/28/twitter-fueled-h...
walm said:
I think you can buy the feed direct from them if you want.
There is some hedgie out there running an algo-driven strategy based off the raw twitter feed I believe.
Beyond that, I am not sure it is of much value to anyone.
I mean the Daily Mail just seem to regurgitate reddit with a 2-3 hour delay and they have turned that into one of the biggest news sites in the world!
ETA - it died: http://venturebeat.com/2012/05/28/twitter-fueled-h...
Seems a great idea, echoes what R8Steve was saying above if you can get proper sentiment indicators for stocks that would definitely have use for fading the crowd. Till then I'll stick to fading anything any of the "experts" on CNBC say There is some hedgie out there running an algo-driven strategy based off the raw twitter feed I believe.
Beyond that, I am not sure it is of much value to anyone.
I mean the Daily Mail just seem to regurgitate reddit with a 2-3 hour delay and they have turned that into one of the biggest news sites in the world!
ETA - it died: http://venturebeat.com/2012/05/28/twitter-fueled-h...
twinturboz said:
Seems a great idea, echoes what R8Steve was saying above if you can get proper sentiment indicators for stocks that would definitely have use for fading the crowd. Till then I'll stick to fading anything any of the "experts" on CNBC say
All this 'sentiment analysis' stuff is huge at the moment. There are lots of companies building and running algos that analyse all this social media content and interprets it for traders. They all have two core things in common though:
1) it's a load of s
t2) they have no customers.
It seems like each month I get pitched a new venture that I have to distribute to my clients as it will make them rich and I've now stopped booking any meetings on the subject. It's all rubbish.
The analysis can be summed up by the simple question as to how an algo can determine what 'b
ks' means when written by an Englishman. Algos are like Americans, they can't calculate sarcasm or irony accurately. And then when you think that social media is not one language but many languages that tend to translate differently and then within every actual language there are industry and geographical nuances that can completely reverse the meaning of words and phrases then the task of accurately disseminating huge and varied levels of global 'conversation' is basically impossible.
And while a computer is sucking in all that data down a host of globally located APIs, running an algo over it, making calculations and then sending it out to a chap on 3G in Timbucktoo the blokes who set up their server 10 feet from the exchange and another 10 feet from the primary news feed has dived in, taken their turn and cashed out all before Twitter has even farted out anything in the subject.
It definitely has its place and its value but I don't think that has been truly quantified as of yet and I don't think all this 'sentiment analysis' trend is much other than a momentary boner for some smart IT people with access to some dumb people's money.
Thats the issue though right DK, the actual "sentiment" has value as we know most of the time the crowded trade doesn't work. How do they make an indicator of out that though and if they do well then won't everyone be on the same side of the trade.
I've seen it popping up on my platform too, popular tweets seem to pop up in the news section and news stories now have a rank :
"Green indicates a positive ranking and can have a value between 0 and 1. Red indicates a negative ranking with a value between -1 and 0. Gradations of ranking indicate the degree of confidence in the sentiment. For example a positive ranking of 1 would indicate more confidence in the sentiment than a positive ranking of 0.65. If the Rank field is empty, the article has not been ranked, and a notation of "n/a" indicates neither positive nor negative sentiment"
How that's at all tradable I have no idea.
I've seen it popping up on my platform too, popular tweets seem to pop up in the news section and news stories now have a rank :
"Green indicates a positive ranking and can have a value between 0 and 1. Red indicates a negative ranking with a value between -1 and 0. Gradations of ranking indicate the degree of confidence in the sentiment. For example a positive ranking of 1 would indicate more confidence in the sentiment than a positive ranking of 0.65. If the Rank field is empty, the article has not been ranked, and a notation of "n/a" indicates neither positive nor negative sentiment"
How that's at all tradable I have no idea.
walm said:
"Big Data" DonkeyApple - wrap it up in a nice bow, give it a stupid name "Autonomy" perhaps and then sell it to HP for a massively over-valued amount which is promptly written down as soon as you get a good look up the Emperor's new kimono.
Yup. Many moons ago back in 99/2000 I first learnt of bulletin boards and saw that retail traders would post up what they had just sent as an order to their broker or were planning to do and from this myself and a partner devised a rather amusing trading system that I guess today would indeed be wrapped up with a flowery title and given much bully big b
ks. We soon learned that each poster who was sticking up trade data had a value. Some were bulls
tters who lied about their trades but had value in forming part of the mass of ramping posts that incited others to jump in with purchases. Others, you could see their trades eventually print and were deemed 'factual' traders. We also came to learn that there were paid ramping teams linked to certain tipsters as well as PR agents for certain nomad brokers so valued stocks based on who was tipping them or which nomad they used. We learnt that over a weekend a frenzy in a particular crappy small cap could build massive momentum to the point that huge retail orders were being sent to Etrade and Schwab on Sunday evenings and more would follow after the Monday open if the price was moving up.
By looking at the amount of stock available the preceding week and collating an estimate of the size of pending orders and what sort of momentum might appear from which bulletin board posters were frothing and ramping we could guesstimate what was going to be happening on Monday morning.
The final bit of information that we had was that we knew how these retail online trading platforms operated. That they were just emailing systems that sent orders to the printer on the dealing desk, where a blue would tear off each docket and manually hand it to a dealer who would then phone the market makers for a price and hopefully a full and that these printers would only get turned on at 7am to start printing and that such was the backlog of thousands of these dockets having to be manually phone broked by a few burnt out old soaks these client orders wouldn't be hitting for ages and it would just be solid buying for hours all through the morning just to process Sunday's orders!
You basically knew that from the moment the market opened there was going to be 3-4 hours of solid buying. You then knew that once the earliest orders started printing and the price started moving that all the retail traders waiting in the wings would start banging in buy orders along with others doubling up and you'd get another frenzy of backlog fed buying orders hitting the dealing desk just as the pubs opened and half the dealers were getting their 11am sharpener.
So, with all this publicly available information all we had to do was get our order in ahead of the retail frenzy and get out into the second wave of retail buying at midday.
The retail market was obsessed with using cheap online brokers but if you had the mobile number of a dealer at one of the stuffy old houses you could be on the phone to them before the open and they could have filled your massive order before the dockets were landing on the Schwab and Etrade desks. All you had to do was pay their 1-2% comm fee instead of trying to get your trade done slowly for £10. But when you were clearing 30-100% within three hours from one trade on a Monday morning who really cared about paying 2% to jump the queue.
That's the only time I've seen sentiment analysis work and it lasted less than 10 months during the tech boom frenzy and only because the big money that was driving the market was lagged so heavily. Which is the exact reverse of the algo world we are in today.
Edited by DonkeyApple on Friday 23 September 17:42
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