Share tips thread
Discussion
walm said:
Ha!
That sounds awesome.
The "wisdom" of crowds!
We missed a huge amount of time at the beginning because we just couldn't believe what we were seeing and were too young to either have the confidence to go for it or the actual money to risk losing. It was madness. In short, everyone had adopted a new technology that was slower than just picking up the phone to an old man. That sounds awesome.
The "wisdom" of crowds!
I guess sentiment analysis has a value in illiquid penny shares where there is no legitimate institutional funds, just professional rampers and spanners with hired social media PR along with pure retail trader frenzy? You'd think it could spot pump and dumps for example?
DonkeyApple said:
Yup.
Many moons ago back in 99/2000 I first learnt of bulletin boards and saw that retail traders would post up what they had just sent as an order to their broker or were planning to do and from this myself and a partner devised a rather amusing trading system that I guess today would indeed be wrapped up with a flowery title and given much bully big b
ks.
We soon learned that each poster who was sticking up trade data had a value. Some were bullstters who lied about their trades but had value in forming part of the mass of ramping posts that incited others to jump in with purchases. Others, you could see their trades eventually print and were deemed 'factual' traders. We also came to learn that there were paid ramping teams linked to certain tipsters as well as PR agents for certain nomad brokers so valued stocks based on who was tipping them or which nomad they used.
We learnt that over a weekend a frenzy in a particular crappy small cap could build massive momentum to the point that huge retail orders were being sent to Etrade and Schwab on Sunday evenings and more would follow after the Monday open if the price was moving up.
By looking at the amount of stock available the preceding week and collating an estimate of the size of pending orders and what sort of momentum might appear from which bulletin board posters were frothing and ramping we could guesstimate what was going to be happening on Monday morning.
The final bit of information that we had was that we knew how these retail online trading platforms operated. That they were just emailing systems that sent orders to the printer on the dealing desk, where a blue would tear off each docket and manually hand it to a dealer who would then phone the market makers for a price and hopefully a full and that these printers would only get turned on at 7am to start printing and that such was the backlog of thousands of these dockets having to be manually phone broked by a few burnt out old soaks these client orders wouldn't be hitting for ages and it would just be solid buying for hours all through the morning just to process Sunday's orders!
You basically knew that from the moment the market opened there was going to be 3-4 hours of solid buying. You then knew that once the earliest orders started printing and the price started moving that all the retail traders waiting in the wings would start banging in buy orders along with others doubling up and you'd get another frenzy of backlog fed buying orders hitting the dealing desk just as the pubs opened and half the dealers were getting their 11am sharpener.
So, with all this publicly available information all we had to do was get our order in ahead of the retail frenzy and get out into the second wave of retail buying at midday.
The retail market was obsessed with using cheap online brokers but if you had the mobile number of a dealer at one of the stuffy old houses you could be on the phone to them before the open and they could have filled your massive order before the dockets were landing on the Schwab and Etrade desks. All you had to do was pay their 1-2% comm fee instead of trying to get your trade done slowly for £10. But when you were clearing 30-100% within three hours from one trade on a Monday morning who really cared about paying 2% to jump the queue.
That's the only time I've seen sentiment analysis work and it lasted less than 10 months during the tech boom frenzy and only because the big money that was driving the market was lagged so heavily. Which is the exact reverse of the algo world we are in today.
ha! that is fascinating. A very astute analysis of a sub optimal system in order to make a few quid Many moons ago back in 99/2000 I first learnt of bulletin boards and saw that retail traders would post up what they had just sent as an order to their broker or were planning to do and from this myself and a partner devised a rather amusing trading system that I guess today would indeed be wrapped up with a flowery title and given much bully big b
ks. We soon learned that each poster who was sticking up trade data had a value. Some were bulls
tters who lied about their trades but had value in forming part of the mass of ramping posts that incited others to jump in with purchases. Others, you could see their trades eventually print and were deemed 'factual' traders. We also came to learn that there were paid ramping teams linked to certain tipsters as well as PR agents for certain nomad brokers so valued stocks based on who was tipping them or which nomad they used. We learnt that over a weekend a frenzy in a particular crappy small cap could build massive momentum to the point that huge retail orders were being sent to Etrade and Schwab on Sunday evenings and more would follow after the Monday open if the price was moving up.
By looking at the amount of stock available the preceding week and collating an estimate of the size of pending orders and what sort of momentum might appear from which bulletin board posters were frothing and ramping we could guesstimate what was going to be happening on Monday morning.
The final bit of information that we had was that we knew how these retail online trading platforms operated. That they were just emailing systems that sent orders to the printer on the dealing desk, where a blue would tear off each docket and manually hand it to a dealer who would then phone the market makers for a price and hopefully a full and that these printers would only get turned on at 7am to start printing and that such was the backlog of thousands of these dockets having to be manually phone broked by a few burnt out old soaks these client orders wouldn't be hitting for ages and it would just be solid buying for hours all through the morning just to process Sunday's orders!
You basically knew that from the moment the market opened there was going to be 3-4 hours of solid buying. You then knew that once the earliest orders started printing and the price started moving that all the retail traders waiting in the wings would start banging in buy orders along with others doubling up and you'd get another frenzy of backlog fed buying orders hitting the dealing desk just as the pubs opened and half the dealers were getting their 11am sharpener.
So, with all this publicly available information all we had to do was get our order in ahead of the retail frenzy and get out into the second wave of retail buying at midday.
The retail market was obsessed with using cheap online brokers but if you had the mobile number of a dealer at one of the stuffy old houses you could be on the phone to them before the open and they could have filled your massive order before the dockets were landing on the Schwab and Etrade desks. All you had to do was pay their 1-2% comm fee instead of trying to get your trade done slowly for £10. But when you were clearing 30-100% within three hours from one trade on a Monday morning who really cared about paying 2% to jump the queue.
That's the only time I've seen sentiment analysis work and it lasted less than 10 months during the tech boom frenzy and only because the big money that was driving the market was lagged so heavily. Which is the exact reverse of the algo world we are in today.
Edited by DonkeyApple on Friday 23 September 17:42
Forgive me for going slightly off topic here but given that you seem clued up on the way the market works. I see lots of "ramping/depramping" for large ftse 100 shares in online forums like LSE. given that these places are populated by amateurs such as myself i don't seem this effecting price, but what is moving price on a daily basis? for example lloy seems to move up and down seemingly randomly sometimes, is it big institutional investors?
caymanbill said:
what is moving price on a daily basis?
The direct answer is market trades, which in turn reflect sentiment. If you are watching the ups and downs you could usefully be watching "market turnover" as well.Check out the simple graph on this link. Along the bottom the grey bars show turnover. As you can see the big falls in June and September 2016 reflected high turnover - in other words a lot of sellers in the market as a result of which buyers could pick up shares more cheaply,
http://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/summa...
Similarly if there are a lot of buyers in the market prices are likely to rise.
I have held Sound Energy for a while. I'm a chartered accountant with 20 years experience of many types of businesses.
I'm not a share person, but decided to invest in a few risky stocks a few years ago for amusement. Sound was one of them. Most have failed, as commented above. However Sound is something else based on current evidence. I won't go into detail, but if you're interested have a listen to the conference calls, look at the recent appointments to the board, read up on the various assets in play especially Tendrara, the relationship with Schlumberger and the cash/finance available to them, then you'll see this isn't your usual O&G business. To say they have nothing is an understatement.
The influx of those jumping on the bandwagon doesn't detract from the underlying assets this business has, and more importantly, the means to develop those assets.
I'm not a share person, but decided to invest in a few risky stocks a few years ago for amusement. Sound was one of them. Most have failed, as commented above. However Sound is something else based on current evidence. I won't go into detail, but if you're interested have a listen to the conference calls, look at the recent appointments to the board, read up on the various assets in play especially Tendrara, the relationship with Schlumberger and the cash/finance available to them, then you'll see this isn't your usual O&G business. To say they have nothing is an understatement.
The influx of those jumping on the bandwagon doesn't detract from the underlying assets this business has, and more importantly, the means to develop those assets.
Edited by MaxFromage on Saturday 24th September 11:43
Ozzie Osmond said:
caymanbill said:
what is moving price on a daily basis?
The direct answer is market trades, which in turn reflect sentiment. If you are watching the ups and downs you could usefully be watching "market turnover" as well.Check out the simple graph on this link. Along the bottom the grey bars show turnover. As you can see the big falls in June and September 2016 reflected high turnover - in other words a lot of sellers in the market as a result of which buyers could pick up shares more cheaply,
http://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/summa...
Similarly if there are a lot of buyers in the market prices are likely to rise.
The rest is a can of worms. What it isn't, as the OP says is anything to do with retail traders. Even down at the penny share level the retail traders are over estimating their power to shift markets. Hence the very common effect of everyone in a BB trying to buy up a falling price and getting wiped out. Averaging down being the common symptom of this error of calculation.
Sentiment plays a huge role. Hedging against a peer. Activism, income arbitrage, results arbitrage, changes in fx rates for investors, re-weightings of funds. Corporate actions. Predictions of any of the above.
It's kind of endless to be honest.
I had a business some years ago that traded blue chips for clients. We had a trade list of less than a dozen FTSE 100 constituents. None of the exciting ones that retail gets drawn to but the boring cyclicals and defensives. The stocks that get stuck in long term trends ebbing and flowing around a slowly inflating core price. Just by studying their price action and being fully aware of the fundamentals, how the funds were trading it you could usually find at least one stock that was at the bottom of its current short term cycle and take a long on the turn to book 50-100bp within 72 hours. It was a good, solid business.
MaxFromage said:
I have held Sound Energy for a while. I'm a chartered accountant with 20 years experience of many types of businesses.
I'm not a share person, but decided to invest in a few risky stocks a few years ago for amusement. Sound was one of them. Most have failed, as commented above. However Sound is something else based on current evidence. I won't go into detail, but if you're interested have a listen to the conference calls, look at the recent appointments to the board, read up on the various assets in play especially Tendrara, the relationship with Schlumberger and the cash/finance available to them, then you'll see this isn't your usual O&G business. To say they have nothing is an understatement.
The influx of those jumping on the bandwagon doesn't detract from the underlying assets this business has, and more importantly, the means to develop those assets.
The problem is that every one of the previous failed oilers has been touted as not being your usual O&G business at one point.I'm not a share person, but decided to invest in a few risky stocks a few years ago for amusement. Sound was one of them. Most have failed, as commented above. However Sound is something else based on current evidence. I won't go into detail, but if you're interested have a listen to the conference calls, look at the recent appointments to the board, read up on the various assets in play especially Tendrara, the relationship with Schlumberger and the cash/finance available to them, then you'll see this isn't your usual O&G business. To say they have nothing is an understatement.
The influx of those jumping on the bandwagon doesn't detract from the underlying assets this business has, and more importantly, the means to develop those assets.
Edited by MaxFromage on Saturday 24th September 11:43
O&G companies, especially explorers will always be very high risk plays.
The worst example of this I can remember (amongst tens of not hundreds of others) was Desire oil. It found a massive oil reservoir in the Falklands, share price shoots up to massive highs then they release an RNS saying 'oh, sorry, it wasn't oil, it was water!'
An easy mistake to make I'm sure...
R8Steve said:
The problem is that every one of the previous failed oilers has been touted as not being your usual O&G business at one point.
O&G companies, especially explorers will always be very high risk plays.
The worst example of this I can remember (amongst tens of not hundreds of others) was Desire oil. It found a massive oil reservoir in the Falklands, share price shoots up to massive highs then they release an RNS saying 'oh, sorry, it wasn't oil, it was water!'
An easy mistake to make I'm sure...
Not just explorers, but even more so with small ones. If a country is going to award licenses they will give it to the big companies because they will do things "properly", and because they have the resources to develop things. Thus these small companies pick up either the stuff that is thought to be understood enough that the big companies aren't interested (which is usually correct but can result in a surprise) or a completely new area that not much is known about. O&G companies, especially explorers will always be very high risk plays.
The worst example of this I can remember (amongst tens of not hundreds of others) was Desire oil. It found a massive oil reservoir in the Falklands, share price shoots up to massive highs then they release an RNS saying 'oh, sorry, it wasn't oil, it was water!'
An easy mistake to make I'm sure...
It can be more difficult than you think. Often 40-50% oil will be classified as water with shows, since offshore it will not be commercially interesting. If it's onshore with facilities in the area you may well develop it anyway as a small company as despite mostly producing water there will be enough oil to be interesting. It also depends when the news happened - some of the original data may indicate oil and as a small company they need to release the data quickly because of the risk of insider trading/ people telling friends (I don't know in the case you talked about). Or of course it could be some people in the company sold their shares once the price was up, but of course that would never happen,
R8Steve said:
MaxFromage said:
I have held Sound Energy for a while. I'm a chartered accountant with 20 years experience of many types of businesses.
I'm not a share person, but decided to invest in a few risky stocks a few years ago for amusement. Sound was one of them. Most have failed, as commented above. However Sound is something else based on current evidence. I won't go into detail, but if you're interested have a listen to the conference calls, look at the recent appointments to the board, read up on the various assets in play especially Tendrara, the relationship with Schlumberger and the cash/finance available to them, then you'll see this isn't your usual O&G business. To say they have nothing is an understatement.
The influx of those jumping on the bandwagon doesn't detract from the underlying assets this business has, and more importantly, the means to develop those assets.
The problem is that every one of the previous failed oilers has been touted as not being your usual O&G business at one point.I'm not a share person, but decided to invest in a few risky stocks a few years ago for amusement. Sound was one of them. Most have failed, as commented above. However Sound is something else based on current evidence. I won't go into detail, but if you're interested have a listen to the conference calls, look at the recent appointments to the board, read up on the various assets in play especially Tendrara, the relationship with Schlumberger and the cash/finance available to them, then you'll see this isn't your usual O&G business. To say they have nothing is an understatement.
The influx of those jumping on the bandwagon doesn't detract from the underlying assets this business has, and more importantly, the means to develop those assets.
Edited by MaxFromage on Saturday 24th September 11:43
O&G companies, especially explorers will always be very high risk plays.
The worst example of this I can remember (amongst tens of not hundreds of others) was Desire oil. It found a massive oil reservoir in the Falklands, share price shoots up to massive highs then they release an RNS saying 'oh, sorry, it wasn't oil, it was water!'
An easy mistake to make I'm sure...
Who knows.
If your invested in commodities for the short term I'd be keeping a very close eye on the dollar index. We are at a likely major inflection point that will resolve with quite a large move depending on which way the $ goes and that's going to drive the near term moves in Gold and Oil.
As for the market (US) now the Fed sugar pill is over we can get back to the reasons why we were going down in the first place, way I see it is if we don't hold major trend lines were going to have a deeper correction, if we do hold then expect a bounce and new highs before the deeper correction, either way a deeper correction is coming just a question of is it now or next year.
Oil will be fun this week, Opec shenanigans, a deal is still unlikely although Opec have been up to some tricks. They've ramped up loading by a significant amount these last 2 weeks not sure if that is indicative of some sort of deal or not, but shorts have ramped up in oil last week so expecting a squeeze at some point this week, inventory numbers should be bullish this week too.
As for the market (US) now the Fed sugar pill is over we can get back to the reasons why we were going down in the first place, way I see it is if we don't hold major trend lines were going to have a deeper correction, if we do hold then expect a bounce and new highs before the deeper correction, either way a deeper correction is coming just a question of is it now or next year.
Oil will be fun this week, Opec shenanigans, a deal is still unlikely although Opec have been up to some tricks. They've ramped up loading by a significant amount these last 2 weeks not sure if that is indicative of some sort of deal or not, but shorts have ramped up in oil last week so expecting a squeeze at some point this week, inventory numbers should be bullish this week too.
Chartists - Where do you think the best place to get into/learn/train in charts is? I've dabbled in shares for a few years and think I've ridden my luck more often than I've won based on judgement, so would like to understand more about the techie side of it. I see a lot of chartist making calls on movements on a few BB's (and here!) and it fascinates me how often their calls are proven right.
Would love to learn more about it and how to do it, but would prefer to do it through a proven entity rather than some of the dodgy looking sites that Google throws up!!
Would love to learn more about it and how to do it, but would prefer to do it through a proven entity rather than some of the dodgy looking sites that Google throws up!!
lukefreeman said:
R8Steve said:
MaxFromage said:
I have held Sound Energy for a while. I'm a chartered accountant with 20 years experience of many types of businesses.
I'm not a share person, but decided to invest in a few risky stocks a few years ago for amusement. Sound was one of them. Most have failed, as commented above. However Sound is something else based on current evidence. I won't go into detail, but if you're interested have a listen to the conference calls, look at the recent appointments to the board, read up on the various assets in play especially Tendrara, the relationship with Schlumberger and the cash/finance available to them, then you'll see this isn't your usual O&G business. To say they have nothing is an understatement.
The influx of those jumping on the bandwagon doesn't detract from the underlying assets this business has, and more importantly, the means to develop those assets.
The problem is that every one of the previous failed oilers has been touted as not being your usual O&G business at one point.I'm not a share person, but decided to invest in a few risky stocks a few years ago for amusement. Sound was one of them. Most have failed, as commented above. However Sound is something else based on current evidence. I won't go into detail, but if you're interested have a listen to the conference calls, look at the recent appointments to the board, read up on the various assets in play especially Tendrara, the relationship with Schlumberger and the cash/finance available to them, then you'll see this isn't your usual O&G business. To say they have nothing is an understatement.
The influx of those jumping on the bandwagon doesn't detract from the underlying assets this business has, and more importantly, the means to develop those assets.
Edited by MaxFromage on Saturday 24th September 11:43
O&G companies, especially explorers will always be very high risk plays.
The worst example of this I can remember (amongst tens of not hundreds of others) was Desire oil. It found a massive oil reservoir in the Falklands, share price shoots up to massive highs then they release an RNS saying 'oh, sorry, it wasn't oil, it was water!'
An easy mistake to make I'm sure...
Who knows.
I'm confident precisely because Schlumberger is on board. also covering a substantial portion of the costs.
Our CEO has said himself that each TCF found is worth £1 on the share price (with all costs and percentages factored in).
Obviously, it's a risky play, but who knows - look at Noble's deal today:
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Industry/2...
£10billion for 1.6TCF
Jonboy_t said:
Where do you think the best place to get into/learn/train in charts is?
Give this book a go, will probably be the only book you'll need on TA. https://www.amazon.co.uk/Technical-Analysis-Financ...
twinturboz said:
Jonboy_t said:
Where do you think the best place to get into/learn/train in charts is?
Give this book a go, will probably be the only book you'll need on TA. https://www.amazon.co.uk/Technical-Analysis-Financ...
Funny how the markets work, Db was largely ignored last week, this week DB is more or less controlling the direction of the markets.
Personally think they'll have a hard time raising capital from the markets as evidenced by the fact that others have pulled bond sales
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-27/...
The contingent convertible bonds won't provide enough capital even if triggered. Which means the bottom line is either the German taxpayer takes the hit or the Ecb step in.
Personally think they'll have a hard time raising capital from the markets as evidenced by the fact that others have pulled bond sales
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-27/...
The contingent convertible bonds won't provide enough capital even if triggered. Which means the bottom line is either the German taxpayer takes the hit or the Ecb step in.
Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 28th September 10:57
twinturboz said:
Funny how the markets work, Db was largely ignored last week, this week DB is more or less controlling the direction of the markets.
Personally think they'll have a hard time raising capital from the markets, the contingent convertible bonds won't provide enough capital even if triggered.
Which means the bottom line is either the German taxpayer takes the hit or the Ecb step in.
You do have to wonder for how long they can keep saying they are going to treat DB as it was Greek before bailing it out, if only via a sanctioned, back door, €1 competitor buyout?Personally think they'll have a hard time raising capital from the markets, the contingent convertible bonds won't provide enough capital even if triggered.
Which means the bottom line is either the German taxpayer takes the hit or the Ecb step in.
It's f
ked, kill it. Kill it now. As we should have done with our monkey banks. They are capitalist entities that should be crushed and dissected when they fail with the remnants supported but the original structure and its architects consigned to the bin. lukefreeman said:
RE: DB
Buy on the dips.............Nice low share price, reckon they'll be some "help" to boost their value, increasing SP in the medium term?
Not overly convinced. People often confuse 'low share price' with 'much smaller share price than a year ago'. The concept of 'low share price' tends to imply that it is cheap. Obviously that's not the case here. It is priced for the risk. In reality it is probably easier to argue that it is over priced than cheap if anything. Buy on the dips.............Nice low share price, reckon they'll be some "help" to boost their value, increasing SP in the medium term?
There probably will be some 'help' but if we look at the other European banks that have been 'helped' their charts tend to show that they still have pitiful share prices compared to the past and are now enormously diluted so any future price rises are scaled accordingly.
It's a f
ked stock so there is clearly trading opportunities but whether the elevated risk makes it worth bothering with is a tough call. I think I'd prefer to punt in the closest peer if I were gambling on a bail-out as that stick will currently be depressed by DB but will rally hard on a bail-out while still having a core business that is viable and profitable to underpin the downside risk.
twinturboz said:
Funny how the markets work, Db was largely ignored last week, this week DB is more or less controlling the direction of the markets.
Personally think they'll have a hard time raising capital from the markets as evidenced by the fact that others have pulled bond sales
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-27/...
The contingent convertible bonds won't provide enough capital even if triggered. Which means the bottom line is either the German taxpayer takes the hit or the Ecb step in.
There are other (non-coco) bond holders that might be bailed in. Or even some depositors....!Personally think they'll have a hard time raising capital from the markets as evidenced by the fact that others have pulled bond sales
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-27/...
The contingent convertible bonds won't provide enough capital even if triggered. Which means the bottom line is either the German taxpayer takes the hit or the Ecb step in.
Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 28th September 10:57
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