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twinturboz said:
Gold been waiting months for the sub $1300 and were finally getting it. IMO the consensus is too bullish on Gold so I think it needs a proper flush down to take out the weak longs then it will set up a great buy into mid next year for the $1500. Personally I've been waiting for around $1284ish to start scaling in but this potentially could go as far as $1250.
Now testing $1250. I guess if it breaks this then it will be heading down to test around $1211?NRS said:
Now testing $1250. I guess if it breaks this then it will be heading down to test around $1211?
Yup you using fibs? For the whole move up from the 1045 bottom you have the 38.2% @ 1149.88 50% @ 1211.9 61.8% @ 1172.54 and the 78.6% @ 1116.9
Some positive divergence kicking in so downside momentum is slowing but no signs of a reversal yet.
US Non Farm numbers tomorrow will probably be a mover for Gold.
twinturboz said:
Yup you using fibs?
For the whole move up from the 1045 bottom you have the 38.2% @ 1149.88 50% @ 1211.9 61.8% @ 1172.54 and the 78.6% @ 1116.9
Some positive divergence kicking in so downside momentum is slowing but no signs of a reversal yet.
US Non Farm numbers tomorrow will probably be a mover for Gold.
I'm not nearly as advanced as you in charts. One of the things I have been doing is looking back at previous predicitions and seeing how things are playing out compared to them. There does seem to be a big difference between people with some saying the rally this year was part of a longer term drop in the price, and others saying there would be this drop now before things bounce up and go nearer 1400-1500 sometime early-mid next year. I suspect quite a lot might rely on the US election - if Trump gets in I can see the markets getting unhappy, whereas if Clinton gets in perhaps there is a bit longer of interest rates going up/ a strengthening dollar which will push gold down. I guess some of the normal investment rules are messed up these days, but my feeling was that we are closer to things dropping sometime soon, and so it was a good idea to reduce some of my equity exposure now. Maybe it was too early, but I'd prefer a bit early than missing it and getting completely hammered.For the whole move up from the 1045 bottom you have the 38.2% @ 1149.88 50% @ 1211.9 61.8% @ 1172.54 and the 78.6% @ 1116.9
Some positive divergence kicking in so downside momentum is slowing but no signs of a reversal yet.
US Non Farm numbers tomorrow will probably be a mover for Gold.
big ant said:
How will you buy Gold ? ETF ? If so, which funds ?
I've moved to Equities / Cash mix of 60 / 40....with Cash as my hedge for 'Trump' collapse, and was toying with Gold as an idea, to use some of the Cash.
Cash is war-chest, but Gold interests me in these turbulent times.
BA
Maybe you know this already (if so apologies if it's too simplified), but there is effectively 3 different ways of getting into gold.I've moved to Equities / Cash mix of 60 / 40....with Cash as my hedge for 'Trump' collapse, and was toying with Gold as an idea, to use some of the Cash.
Cash is war-chest, but Gold interests me in these turbulent times.
BA
1) Owning actual gold. Generally not recommended due to the cost of insuring, keeping safe, higher costs in buying and selling.
2) ETFs which try and track the gold price. From what I have read the main 2 are "GLD - SPDR Gold Trust ETF" and "IAU - iShares COMEX Gold Trust ETF". From what I quickly read GLD is the larger fund, but perhaps not as good for the retail trader. But generally they have similar performance to each other (with IAU slightly better - http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/032...
3) Shares in mining companys/ ETFs. These are much more extreme in rises and falls since they are related to the actual stocks of the mining companies. So if it costs a company produces gold at a cost of $800 and the price of gold moves from $900 to $1000 then the profits of the company double, not just change by the approximately 10% that gold changed by. They also have more risk as if the companies do stupid decisions it can affect the value, so it's not just the gold price that affects these type of investments.
I have gone for the 3rd option as I am open to a bit more risk, and have no need to get the money out in the near future. Also in a way it helps me "make sure" of profits since the multiplier effect will mean gains will be much higher than those in gold. Since I am in another currency than dollars the weakening of the dollar that would likely come at the same time as the rise in gold could wipe out any gains made in gold. Obviously there is an option to hedge this, but my thinking is if needed I should still make a decent profit since gold might go up say 50%, the dollar-kroner rate maybe down 35% but the ETF in mining companies perhaps up say 100% (random numbers used). Obviously this comes with greater losses if gold moves down and I have to sell.
With Brexit then you're likely not to have to worry too much about the currency issue as it's probably going to be the £ decreasing in value - so you'd probably get gains on the currency side too.
The mining ETF I have used is GDX (VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF). If you want more risk/ perhaps better rewards there is also the junior version for smaller mining companies.
With a mix of UK and international funds and FTSE 100 companies (bought mainly for decent divis) in my SIPP & ISA, and with harsh memories of 2008, I'm starting to get very very nervous.
But don't want to get out too soon if this rally is going to continue for the next few months.
Who said "time in the market not timing the market"???
But don't want to get out too soon if this rally is going to continue for the next few months.
Who said "time in the market not timing the market"???
NRS said:
One of the things I have been doing is looking back at previous predicitions and seeing how things are playing out compared to them. There does seem to be a big difference between people with some saying the rally this year was part of a longer term drop in the price, and others saying there would be this drop now before things bounce up and go nearer 1400-1500 sometime early-mid next year. I suspect quite a lot might rely on the US election - if Trump gets in I can see the markets getting unhappy, whereas if Clinton gets in perhaps there is a bit longer of interest rates going up/ a strengthening dollar which will push gold down. I guess some of the normal investment rules are messed up these days, but my feeling was that we are closer to things dropping sometime soon, and so it was a good idea to reduce some of my equity exposure now. Maybe it was too early, but I'd prefer a bit early than missing it and getting completely hammered.
Gold isn't necessarily a hedge against a correction in the market, if you look at the initial panic in 2008, Gold went down with the rest of the market, in fact I think it was about a 20% correction before the "bull market" in Gold started in 09. After it hit it's peak in 2012 it then went through a bear market which was around a 40% move.Jan of this year is when it broke that 5yr trendline and imo the start of another bull market in Gold, if that thesis is correct then it doesn't see the 1050 lows before new highs since Jan.
Personally I try not to read too much into all the factors sure the $, the whole Qe question etc all have an effect but it gets too "noisy" to try and consider all those factors on a longer time frame. I'd rather just look at the charts and go with them, the issue I see was that hardly anyone caught the Jan lows, then by the time everybody started getting interested it was already in the mid to high 1200's at which point it just became full of speculators and hedge funds.
The sentiment was too bullish so when that key $1300 went you had the flush down and unwinding of a lot of positions. These last 2 days should have cleared out a lot of those speculators more so when your talking about Gdx. They all thought they caught the lows last week or the week previous when it bounced 10%.
The $1250ish level is important (have a look at the low on the big bar on the 24th June) and also it's now under the 200 day moving average (1258.56) which as a general rule bad things happen under there, so ideally you want to be seeing a reclaim of that level soon, otherwise you need to be thinking about further downside risk and at which point you decide the trade is wrong and exit, this could potentially break the 1200's and into 1180, I don't think it goes that far and a year end hike by the Fed is already priced in, but you always have to be aware of the risks.
Gdx wise imo you want to be seeing that $24 reclaimed tomorrow otherwise you open the door for the 20's next.
Skyedriver said:
With a mix of UK and international funds and FTSE 100 companies (bought mainly for decent divis) in my SIPP & ISA, and with harsh memories of 2008, I'm starting to get very very nervous.
But don't want to get out too soon if this rally is going to continue for the next few months.
Who said "time in the market not timing the market"???
Just on this thread alone that seems to be a common theme, everyone is getting bit nervous which I can understand, I do think a correction is coming but bull markets don't end when everyone is expecting it so not convinced were at the crash stage yet I think this market still has a bit to run after the next correction. But don't want to get out too soon if this rally is going to continue for the next few months.
Who said "time in the market not timing the market"???
Edited by twinturboz on Thursday 6th October 21:36
twinturboz said:
Gold isn't necessarily a hedge against a correction in the market, if you look at the initial panic in 2008, Gold went down with the rest of the market, in fact I think it was about a 20% correction before the "bull market" in Gold started in 09. After it hit it's peak in 2012 it then went through a bear market which was around a 40% move.
Jan of this year is when it broke that 5yr trendline and imo the start of another bull market in Gold, if that thesis is correct then it doesn't see the 1050 lows before new highs since Jan.
Personally I try not to read too much into all the factors sure the $, the whole Qe question etc all have an effect but it gets too "noisy" to try and consider all those factors on a longer time frame. I'd rather just look at the charts and go with them, the issue I see was that hardly anyone caught the Jan lows, then by the time everybody started getting interested it was already in the mid to high 1200's at which point it just became full of speculators and hedge funds.
The sentiment was too bullish so when that key $1300 went you had the flush down and unwinding of a lot of positions. These last 2 days should have cleared out a lot of those speculators more so when your talking about Gdx. They all thought they caught the lows last week or the week previous when it bounced 10%.
The $1250ish level is important (have a look at the low on the big bar on the 24th June) and also it's now under the 200 day moving average (1258.56) which as a general rule bad things happen under there, so ideally you want to be seeing a reclaim of that level soon, otherwise you need to be thinking about further downside risk and at which point you decide the trade is wrong and exit, this could potentially break the 1200's and into 1180, I don't think it goes that far and a year end hike by the Fed is already priced in, but you always have to be aware of the risks.
Gdx wise imo you want to be seeing that $24 reclaimed tomorrow otherwise you open the door for the 20's next.
I have quite a lot of my portfolio as cash in different bank accounts so am covered for a crash in that sense. Luckly here the interest rates have not become quite as bad as they have in the UK. I have quite a lot in accounts with interest rates around 3% (although the funds have to be used on a house or you pay some of the interest back). The plan would then be to throw the funds into the mortgage once interest rates start climbing (you can get mortgage rates around 1.95% so it makes more sense to have it in the bank accounts).Jan of this year is when it broke that 5yr trendline and imo the start of another bull market in Gold, if that thesis is correct then it doesn't see the 1050 lows before new highs since Jan.
Personally I try not to read too much into all the factors sure the $, the whole Qe question etc all have an effect but it gets too "noisy" to try and consider all those factors on a longer time frame. I'd rather just look at the charts and go with them, the issue I see was that hardly anyone caught the Jan lows, then by the time everybody started getting interested it was already in the mid to high 1200's at which point it just became full of speculators and hedge funds.
The sentiment was too bullish so when that key $1300 went you had the flush down and unwinding of a lot of positions. These last 2 days should have cleared out a lot of those speculators more so when your talking about Gdx. They all thought they caught the lows last week or the week previous when it bounced 10%.
The $1250ish level is important (have a look at the low on the big bar on the 24th June) and also it's now under the 200 day moving average (1258.56) which as a general rule bad things happen under there, so ideally you want to be seeing a reclaim of that level soon, otherwise you need to be thinking about further downside risk and at which point you decide the trade is wrong and exit, this could potentially break the 1200's and into 1180, I don't think it goes that far and a year end hike by the Fed is already priced in, but you always have to be aware of the risks.
Gdx wise imo you want to be seeing that $24 reclaimed tomorrow otherwise you open the door for the 20's next.
The investment in gold was partly to diversify, and partly to cover any crash (although as you said pretty much everything goes down since people need to get money asap to cover their costs). I guess one question is what will happen in the next crash since interest rates will likely have very little place to go before becoming negative - so would gold recover more quickly this time? And the third reason was the charts - although it seems there is two interpretations of them - was the start of the year a new bull trend, or was the gain this year a rally on the overall bear trend from the $1900s. Of course there is also a lot of bias out there from people with vested interests one way or the other.
Skyedriver said:
With a mix of UK and international funds and FTSE 100 companies (bought mainly for decent divis) in my SIPP & ISA, and with harsh memories of 2008, I'm starting to get very very nervous.
But don't want to get out too soon if this rally is going to continue for the next few months.
Who said "time in the market not timing the market"???
I guess it also depends what your plans for the money is - if it's something in the next year or two then time in the market is not going to help if you get smashed and have no time to recover. However if it's long term savings over say 40 years then it's a lot more relevant to use the time in the market line.But don't want to get out too soon if this rally is going to continue for the next few months.
Who said "time in the market not timing the market"???
Dave350 said:
Now at £1.05, PLT Option still not used.
This is cruising as a share. 93% growth in America year on year, hasn't yet benefitted from the weaker £ due to hedging in advance, further benefits to be had here from this.
I can see this hitting £1.30-£1.40 by March when the PLT option is activated.
£1.20 this week. This is cruising as a share. 93% growth in America year on year, hasn't yet benefitted from the weaker £ due to hedging in advance, further benefits to be had here from this.
I can see this hitting £1.30-£1.40 by March when the PLT option is activated.
I've made £6k from £15k of shares in about 4 weeks, although granted, it's not profit until you take it!
This will continue to rise when the PLT option is activated as I'd imagine a fair amount of it is priced in, but not all!
Meltdown. Somebody spilled a drink on their robot.
And here I was thinking that NFPs might cause it to drop a bit more tomorrow. Not 500 pips in the Asia session.
Hope nobody was long. (I suppose that was the problem.)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-06/algos-bar...
And here I was thinking that NFPs might cause it to drop a bit more tomorrow. Not 500 pips in the Asia session.
Hope nobody was long. (I suppose that was the problem.)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-06/algos-bar...
Edited by maxxy5 on Friday 7th October 03:04
Burwood said:
Hi Donkey Apple, what do you think of interactive Brokers. Has access to all the fruit.
I think they are brilliant. I've not looked at them for a while but I've always had great respect for their products. A few years back they got a UK license so now they can protect your money under the FSCS but also started adding DMA CFDs but true DMA not the product that the main UK leader offers. They also actually support their FIX API as a core part of their business. The UK market is decades behind and all comprehensively fail to support their own APIs so the UK product is junk.
Leverage is low and margins high (run on US rules not U.K.) so it's a service that appeals more in the UK to traders who understand that over trading and trading in excess size are what makes most of them losers. The real problem though is that their discounted execution costs come at what can be a pretty high price in the long run and that is that they don't run any acceptable level of conventional support so when their platform loses connection you are screwed. You won't be closing or opening any positions until they fix the problem and platforms and connections tend to crash during peak loads, i.e. When s
t is happening in the markets. dom9 said:
Just logged in to post... $1.14 at the bottom, wasn't it?
Sadly, I can't move out of managed equities etc fast enough to take advantage.
Sitting at $1.24 now!
What's the deal there? US expected to have good non-farm number today?
I thought about buying it but too slow to react. Us market sitting in a triangle pattern before non farm, either we break up after the numbers and try to push to new highs or we finally try and break that 2100 on the SPX. Sadly, I can't move out of managed equities etc fast enough to take advantage.
Sitting at $1.24 now!
What's the deal there? US expected to have good non-farm number today?
IB wise been using them for the last 5 years can only remember once or twice when it crashed, was one of a handful of platforms that worked perfectly though the August flash crash. Dk is right though support is non-exsistant.
Hmm spot the difference :
Fxpro low - 1.2020
CMC - 1.1950
IG- 1.1203
Guess Ig customers got screwed.
Spike lows usually get tested at some point.
Edited by twinturboz on Friday 7th October 11:04
twinturboz said:
Ouch...
I don't really follow this, surely SportsDirect buy goods in $ and Euro and sell in SterlingSo if the company has hedged its position it would have been short £
If its been long £ and got stopped out at 1.19 then surely thats just an fx trading position that they have taken which has gone badly wrong?
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