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Oil stocks aren't very happy now! I might sit out a bit more for the near future, between the possible shock of the US election and here in Norway a lot of companies just broke their positive trend from the last 3 months or so means it's looking high risk for me now. Happy with GDX so far though.
NRS said:
Oil stocks aren't very happy now! I might sit out a bit more for the near future, between the possible shock of the US election and here in Norway a lot of companies just broke their positive trend from the last 3 months or so means it's looking high risk for me now. Happy with GDX so far though.
One thing on the Gold is how to play the election.If Trump gets in, it feels like Gold is going to rocket but that the dollar will tank so net-net not an obvious win.
And vice-versa.
So... not sure really.
walm said:
One thing on the Gold is how to play the election.
If Trump gets in, it feels like Gold is going to rocket but that the dollar will tank so net-net not an obvious win.
And vice-versa.
So... not sure really.
I have a 10% gain so far between currency and the increase in GDX itself. I didn't hedge against currency changes so far as the dollar was still strengthening so was happy to get the benefit from both. Now I am somewhat tempted to just hold what I have now and "hope" that gold/dollar changes will hedge each other to enough extend that I should still be in the plus? I guess there is also the shorter term downside risk with it being GDX, so if the market crashes/corrects if Trump gets in then it could pull the mining companies down with it before they recover with the likely increase in gold.If Trump gets in, it feels like Gold is going to rocket but that the dollar will tank so net-net not an obvious win.
And vice-versa.
So... not sure really.
I might end up regretting it but strongly feel gold lows already in same with Gdx, it's on the path to $1400 now with a bit of chop to come to shake out the late chasers. Oil grabbed some long today at 45.30
Doller too many bulls it's already starting the move down.
Next up is the pullback in FANG, patiently waiting to buy Apple 90-95, Amazon 650-700, FB 105-110, Netflix 95's Google 700 ish.
Doller too many bulls it's already starting the move down.
Next up is the pullback in FANG, patiently waiting to buy Apple 90-95, Amazon 650-700, FB 105-110, Netflix 95's Google 700 ish.
Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 2nd November 16:38
walm said:
I desperately want to short FANG but just don't have anything like the stones.
Amazon was great yesterday from a technical perspective, you've had the 50day ma (purple line) as support all year. Earnings broke through it, so was expecting a retest at some point, yesterday you had the perfect tag and rejection of it so great place to get short. If it's weak now it should move to undercut the earnings lows in the coming days.
walm said:
twinturboz said:
Next up is the pullback in FANG, patiently waiting to buy Apple 90-95, Amazon 650-700, FB 105-110, Netflix 95's Google 700 ish.
I desperately want to short FANG but just don't have anything like the stones.
t. At least it earns enough to kind of justify its PE.Burwood said:
walm said:
twinturboz said:
Next up is the pullback in FANG, patiently waiting to buy Apple 90-95, Amazon 650-700, FB 105-110, Netflix 95's Google 700 ish.
I desperately want to short FANG but just don't have anything like the stones.t. At least it earns enough to kind of justify its PE.They essentially have a lifetime pass onto my "never short" list because the structural tailwind is so massive.
Although - there should be a right price for everything!
walm said:
Burwood said:
walm said:
twinturboz said:
Next up is the pullback in FANG, patiently waiting to buy Apple 90-95, Amazon 650-700, FB 105-110, Netflix 95's Google 700 ish.
I desperately want to short FANG but just don't have anything like the stones.t. At least it earns enough to kind of justify its PE.They essentially have a lifetime pass onto my "never short" list because the structural tailwind is so massive.
Although - there should be a right price for everything!
. Going into earnings and take a pure gamble on a missBurwood said:
walm said:
Burwood said:
walm said:
twinturboz said:
Next up is the pullback in FANG, patiently waiting to buy Apple 90-95, Amazon 650-700, FB 105-110, Netflix 95's Google 700 ish.
I desperately want to short FANG but just don't have anything like the stones.t. At least it earns enough to kind of justify its PE.They essentially have a lifetime pass onto my "never short" list because the structural tailwind is so massive.
Although - there should be a right price for everything!
. Going into earnings and take a pure gamble on a missWhat do you think of LNKD. Its at $188, MSFT's bid is $196.
What are people's position now? Holding for the long term and so not worried about the election, or have you taken a large cash position for the next few days to make sure you preserve capital?
I've quite a big cash position now apart from company share saving scheme and a relatively small amount in a good dividend paying company. The other thing I have is GDX, which I think may get hit a bit in the next few days whatever happens (gold will go up with Trump, but probably the miner shares would get hit with a big stock market sell-off anyway, or with Clinton there might be a bit of a drop in gold due to the lower risk associated with her). The rest I had made gains which I was happy with so decided to not risk them and sold out to see what happens first.
I've quite a big cash position now apart from company share saving scheme and a relatively small amount in a good dividend paying company. The other thing I have is GDX, which I think may get hit a bit in the next few days whatever happens (gold will go up with Trump, but probably the miner shares would get hit with a big stock market sell-off anyway, or with Clinton there might be a bit of a drop in gold due to the lower risk associated with her). The rest I had made gains which I was happy with so decided to not risk them and sold out to see what happens first.
I have some long exposure on the SPX and Nasdaq from last Thursday and Friday, felt the sentiment was getting a bit overdone.
I think the fact that many got caught out by Brexit meant lots have gone flat or hedged accordingly, The vix was up 8 days in a row last week which has never happened in history and easy with hindsight now but people were probably overpaying for protection.
Imo market expectation is a Clinton win and so if Trump does get in they'll be a sell off but for the reasons above I don't think it will be as bad as Brexit on initial reaction. Gold again should be pricing in a Clinton win so I don't expect too much of a sell off in that.
Question becomes if Clinton gets in, and market rallies well then everyone who took risk off might have to chase at higher prices, I'm targeting new highs somewhere around 2250 SPX by year end.
Forget the election for a moment and have a look at what some of the commodities have done the last week or so.
Judging by option markets:
Clinton = Spx 2140-2160
Trump = Spx 2030-2050
Shaping up to be a fade the news regardless of who wins.
I think the fact that many got caught out by Brexit meant lots have gone flat or hedged accordingly, The vix was up 8 days in a row last week which has never happened in history and easy with hindsight now but people were probably overpaying for protection.
Imo market expectation is a Clinton win and so if Trump does get in they'll be a sell off but for the reasons above I don't think it will be as bad as Brexit on initial reaction. Gold again should be pricing in a Clinton win so I don't expect too much of a sell off in that.
Question becomes if Clinton gets in, and market rallies well then everyone who took risk off might have to chase at higher prices, I'm targeting new highs somewhere around 2250 SPX by year end.
Forget the election for a moment and have a look at what some of the commodities have done the last week or so.
Judging by option markets:
Clinton = Spx 2140-2160
Trump = Spx 2030-2050
Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 8th November 13:15
Shaping up to be a fade the news regardless of who wins.
Edited by twinturboz on Tuesday 8th November 17:02
g4ry13 said:
So are the indices selling off. £ actually gaining against the $. Wednesday/Thursday could be a good day to buy some stocks.
That is my plan. Had a feeling it would be like Brexit again as I think quite a lot of people don't want to say they will vote for the 'stupid' choice publically. And whether you think it is right or not there are a lot of people unhappy with the modern day system out there. Whether this is the way to fix it is another question, but it was the reason for moving to more cash.No idea how my gdx will work out, but I suspect down for a bit. Any types of stock that are best to try and buy low?
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