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[walm]

Burwood said:

Jeff Bezos is wetting the bed and for good reason. A lot of people are now regretting the very personal attacks on Trump. So Jeff opens his mouth and it's cost him about 10B so far. Trump hates him and will start dismantling Amazons reach. Im not saying Amazon is going back to $500 yet but $700 is too soon in my opinion.

WTF???
Just how omnipotent and vidictive do you think Trump is?
You think he gives a f@ck about Bezos?

[Burwood]

walm said:

Burwood said:

Jeff Bezos is wetting the bed and for good reason. A lot of people are now regretting the very personal attacks on Trump. So Jeff opens his mouth and it's cost him about 10B so far. Trump hates him and will start dismantling Amazons reach. Im not saying Amazon is going back to $500 yet but $700 is too soon in my opinion.

WTF???
Just how omnipotent and vidictive do you think Trump is?
You think he gives a f@ck about Bezos?

I think he does care- He has also banned the Washington Post from any news conferences. The markets obviously care to a degree. The stock is off $100 WTF do i know-just putting some history behind the shift downward

[twinturboz]

Burwood said:

I think he does care- He has also banned the Washington Post from any news conferences. The markets obviously care to a degree. The stock is off $100 WTF do i know-just putting some history behind the shift downward

Imo it's got nothing to do with that but then again, I don't really care as to the reasons why it's down. You can explain it in a 100 ways rotation out of tech, over-owned etc.

Simple facts broke the 1yr uptrend after earnings and has been trending down since, downtrend breaks if it gets back above 770ish at this point it's come this far down might as well test the 200 day which is at 698 currently. Yesterday's low held the same lows as 28th July earnings low. I do think though that a reversal comes soon.

Google the same, on a monthly chart if it reverses and gets going should make a nice long term swing trade to target 900.

Edited by twinturboz on Friday 11th November 14:27

[walm]

Burwood said:

I think he does care- He has also banned the Washington Post from any news conferences. The markets obviously care to a degree. The stock is off $100 WTF do i know-just putting some history behind the shift downward

Ah - fair enough.
I just didn't think "personal vendetta against the CEO" was the reason for the move!

[Burwood]

walm said:

Burwood said:

I think he does care- He has also banned the Washington Post from any news conferences. The markets obviously care to a degree. The stock is off $100 WTF do i know-just putting some history behind the shift downward

Ah - fair enough.
I just didn't think "personal vendetta against the CEO" was the reason for the move!

As I'm sure you would agree. Amazon was already fully priced and the latest ER was not exactly stellar. 5% was a modest sell off based on a pretty uninteresting quarter. Then you have Trump who has criticised Amazon for buying too many Chinese products at the expense of local small business. I agree that it's largely rhetoric to win votes but then you have two billionaires having a handbag fight. Coupled with the known fact that Trump is insanely vindictive. As an aside Bezos should keep quiet. His job is to run Amazon and he should remember that he has a responsibility to shareholders.

[DonkeyApple]

Burwood said:

walm said:

Burwood said:

Jeff Bezos is wetting the bed and for good reason. A lot of people are now regretting the very personal attacks on Trump. So Jeff opens his mouth and it's cost him about 10B so far. Trump hates him and will start dismantling Amazons reach. Im not saying Amazon is going back to $500 yet but $700 is too soon in my opinion.

WTF???
Just how omnipotent and vidictive do you think Trump is?
You think he gives a f@ck about Bezos?

I think he does care- He has also banned the Washington Post from any news conferences. The markets obviously care to a degree. The stock is off $100 WTF do i know-just putting some history behind the shift downward

I think there is definit credence to the thought that those who backed the wrong horse and did so publicly and vociferously will be finding themselves on the wrong side of the new govt. Just like those who traditionally lobbied for and financed the victor shares in the spoils so is the opposite for those who didn't just lobby and finance the opposition but actually attacked the winner.

Given how outspoken most of California was then it's fair to suspect they won't be getting any favours for the next 4 years. And someone needs to be taxed to help pay for the proposed cuts and it's unlikely to be the states who elected Trump who are top of that list.

[NRS]

twinturboz said:

Longer it stays below 1267 more the chance of 1200. I'm still expecting a Oil and Gold rip, but not looking so good on that count for now.

FANG should see capital rotate out and into biostock,financials, industrials etc everything Trump friendly

Edited by twinturboz on Thursday 10th November 15:32

As you said it needs to test 1200 - I guess it was pretty likely since it's been quite finely balanced for a while, then didn't properly break the high and suddenly everyone is expecting a boom from Trump now. Thankfully I sold out with a 5% profit or so. It's now down around 15% from my buy price so the strategy works/ got lucky.

Edited by NRS on Friday 11th November 19:06

[twinturboz]

NRS said:

As you said it needs to test 1200 - I guess it was pretty likely since it's been quite finely balanced for a while, then didn't properly break the high and suddenly everyone is expecting a boom from Trump now. Thankfully I sold out with a 5% profit or so. It's now down around 15% from my buy price so the strategy works/ got lucky.

Edited by NRS on Friday 11th November 19:06

Wouldn't say it was all luck, like you said the failure to break highs and then the reversal before it even broke down late week was your tell.

Looking for gdx to hold the .618 on the fibs now. One thing though, from a technical point the Gold move makes sense, but with what Inflation is telling you it doesn't make sense down here.

Took Amazon and Google long today.

Edited by twinturboz on Monday 14th November 18:14

[Burwood]

Both stocks will be 10% higher soon enough. With them I'd be dollar cost averaging all the way down. Not betting the farm but there are plenty oF over bought stocks to cycle out of.

[Ozzie Osmond]

DonkeyApple said:

....someone needs to be taxed to help pay for the proposed cuts and it's unlikely to be the states who elected Trump who are top of that list.

There must IMO be a significant risk the answer to who will pay includes "Europe". Trump may well cut back on military spending in Europe, so UK and everybody else will have to get a lot more serious in order to hold back the Putin tide. The concern must be UK facing increased taxation for Brexit at the same time as increased taxation for Trump - and all in the context of an inflationary environment.

[Burwood]

Ozzie Osmond said:

DonkeyApple said:

....someone needs to be taxed to help pay for the proposed cuts and it's unlikely to be the states who elected Trump who are top of that list.

There must IMO be a significant risk the answer to who will pay includes "Europe". Trump may well cut back on military spending in Europe, so UK and everybody else will have to get a lot more serious in order to hold back the Putin tide. The concern must be UK facing increased taxation for Brexit at the same time as increased taxation for Trump - and all in the context of an inflationary environment.

why would the UK have to spend more. We meet our obligations which is 2% of GDP. It's the other member states that don't meet their responsibility, Holding back Putin you say. We have enough military might. The UKs spend is equal to Russias. Europe is 5X that and the US is 10-12 X Russias. To hold him back as you say there needs to be a will/action to do so. Russia is surrounded by Western missiles/bases. I wouldn't expect their(Russias) attitudes to be different really. Of course they feel threatened

[twinturboz]

Burwood said:

Both stocks will be 10% higher soon enough. With them I'd be dollar cost averaging all the way down. Not betting the farm but there are plenty oF over bought stocks to cycle out of.

Just trades for now, no longer term plans to hold just yet.

Main issue is what SPX and the Bonds are doing, I'm thinking SPX is 2-5% too high right now, question is do we get rotation out and into tech or does tech carry on going down when then SPX corrects.

[Ozzie Osmond]

My principal concern is the current poor performance of FTSE 100 compared with other leading global indexes. I've already done some rebalancing away from UK and I reckon more will be needed, judging by the shambles in Westminster. Sure, UK companies are propped up a bit at present by the weak pound's translation of overseas profits but the underlying domestic trend looks weak to me.

If UK was an ocean liner I'd stay close to the life-boats!

[anonymous-user]

Now Trump is going to be in the White House and his talks with Putin today should we be looking at Aerospace or Defence shares going forward.

Just a thought.

[Burwood]

ELUSIVEJIM said:

Now Trump is going to be in the White House and his talks with Putin today should we be looking at Aerospace or Defence shares going forward.

Just a thought.

Why, Trump will probably invite him to a round of golf. Does Putin play golf. I know he's pretty good at wrestling

[DonkeyApple]

Ozzie Osmond said:

DonkeyApple said:

....someone needs to be taxed to help pay for the proposed cuts and it's unlikely to be the states who elected Trump who are top of that list.

There must IMO be a significant risk the answer to who will pay includes "Europe". Trump may well cut back on military spending in Europe, so UK and everybody else will have to get a lot more serious in order to hold back the Putin tide. The concern must be UK facing increased taxation for Brexit at the same time as increased taxation for Trump - and all in the context of an inflationary environment.

Yes but I believe his rhetoric was around the fact that few NATO members are meeting their obligations and taking the piss from the US perspective? Which is hard to fault. If they aren't spending what they agreed then neither should the US.

[traxx]

twinturboz said:

Main issue is what SPX and the Bonds are doing, I'm thinking SPX is 2-5% too high right now, question is do we get rotation out and into tech or does tech carry on going down when then SPX corrects.

My main issue with the markets in general just now is that clearly the value of long dated Govt/Corp bonds have dropped dramatically over the last month
I have a feeling that all these financial firms holding the position booked M-t-M gains on their accounts as interest rates fell which means that they now must be in serious trouble

Just the losses based on holdings of 10-20 year US debt dwarfs and gains in the stock market

[twinturboz]

Yup, were back at the top of a 2yr range except right now compared to before the election we have a stronger dollar and as you mentioned significantly higher yields.

We will find out if the bond market lets Trump get on with his plan of fiscal stimulus, bigger picture down the road can see rising yields combined with a stronger dollar and all that US debt being the end of the bull market, but think we still have one more leg higher in the midterm.


Have a look at DRYS the shipping stocks have gone crazy.

[Stedman]

twinturboz said:

Have a look at DRYS the shipping stocks have gone crazy.

Christ!

[Shnozz]

Any views from you wise folks on Capita?

For a FTSE100 constitute (for now at least) they have seen a massive price fluctuation in recent weeks. Board looks to be floundering a bit and no massively positive news seemingly in the pipeline but equally not any cancerous news to support such a huge drop.

For sake of disclosure - I bought a small chunk at about £6.90 ish which has seen me sat on about a £1k loss.