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[twinturboz]

WTI crude might try for the breakout today. Needs a close above 52.50 to confirm. If the pattern works might be looking at close to $60 soon.

[DonkeyApple]

AndySpecD said:

R8Steve said:

It's looking like the market disagrees with my assessment of IGG. Still sitting in profit for now (just) but may have to re-evaluate this one.

I'm watching it too, but not got that feeling yet that it will recover significantly...

It usually does after they issue results, the CEO flogs his stock and the market soils itself and sells it off.

A little different this time as there is a groundswell in Europe for legislating against their core product. They've already pulled out of the Netherlands and Germany is now planning changes. In reality, the changes could benefit IG as they are already compliant with many of the proposed changes and the changes will decimate Plus500 and the other stinky operaters giving IG back some market share but any recovery is likely to take longer than before and IG's board is notoriously poor at PR.

[dangerousB]

g4ry13 said:

I'm holding a rollercoaster of a share....

If you want to see a rollercoaster, have a look at CTAG - AMC is a kiddie's fairground ride in comparison!!

Edited by dangerousB on Saturday 10th December 20:22

[dingg]

ctag - suspended

looks likely the bears called it right

[dangerousB]

dingg said:

ctag - suspended

looks likely the bears called it right

Not sure whether you're privy to ctag's story, but all is not what it appears to the current casual observer

[dingg]

CTAG

on my casual observation appears to be a pile of ste

[dangerousB]

dingg said:

on my casual observation appears to be a pile of ste

Covered yourself quite nicely with that appraisal

[twinturboz]

Wonder if the markets repeats last January, this move certainly feels a bit stretched now.

[marky1]

AndySpecD said:

I'm watching it too, but not got that feeling yet that it will recover significantly...

There could be a fundamental issue with IG though.
They sent an email out today and I see the margin on £10 a tick on FTSE is £350.
£10 a tick on the FTSE100 is the same as doing a 1 lot in FTSE100 Futures. My Exchange margin on 1 FTSE future is £3750.
I've traded Futures as a job for 16 years. Yet someone with no experience can go to IG, open an account and trade with margin a tenth of mine.
The FCA are going down the right path with this in my opinion, could be huge changes coming.You can't have people that don't know what they are doing, and worse don't understand what they are doing, exposed to those levels of leverage, it's just not right.

Edited by marky1 on Tuesday 13th December 16:24

[NRS]

twinturboz said:

Wonder if the markets repeats last January, this move certainly feels a bit stretched now.

I've been wondering that exact thing these last couple of days...

[768]

Crossed my mind too, but I think the pound's in a very different place so perhaps not.

[Skyedriver]

NRS said:

twinturboz said:

Wonder if the markets repeats last January, this move certainly feels a bit stretched now.

I've been wondering that exact thing these last couple of days...

There's a lot of people still jumping on the bull train which makes me worry.
I've got a few hundred to invest in the bairns ISA (strange how you spend more time worrying about his small sums rather than your own slightly larger amounts) and I'm sitting on the side lines with itchy fingers but worry in my head.

USA markets and UK markets near the top. The USA markets jumped yesterday in expectation of a FED rate rise (surely that'll put a lot of people off spending and maybe worse off?), there's 20th January to consider and the in/out shake it all about Brexit issues.

I look at my own little pot (no not the one hanging over my belt) which is made up of SIPP and ISA and wonder if i should cash it all in before there's a slump. I'm 63 and this money is to see me through the next few years of pauperdom.

[twinturboz]

NRS said:

I've been wondering that exact thing these last couple of days...

Overall imo were entering the blow off phase could last 6-12 months, but right now in the short term sentiment seems to be approaching excessive bullishness.

Put to call ratios are near lows, vix showing complacency let's see how the markets react to the Fed later. Could be a big day for gold.

Interested to see what crude does too, all time record long positions in it at the moment.

Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 14th December 14:43

[768]

AndySpecD said:

R8Steve said:

It's looking like the market disagrees with my assessment of IGG. Still sitting in profit for now (just) but may have to re-evaluate this one.

I'm watching it too, but not got that feeling yet that it will recover significantly...

I bought in late yesterday. If I'd been paying attention I probably would've been out today. 7% in a day is more than enough for me.

[DonkeyApple]

R8Steve said:

R8Steve said:

I've certainly been enjoying the run on oil and associated companies.

As i'd posted on another thread i've also opened a significant long yesterday on IGG at about 4.75.

An absolute gift from the FCA in my opinion.

It's looking like the market disagrees with my assessment of IGG. Still sitting in profit for now (just) but may have to re-evaluate this one.

It's still a tough one. The FCA review is a real one. Usually they send a team of people who don't know what OTCs are to one of the big brokers, spend a week or two learning the basics and then announce some changes that were put forward by the broker and agreed with in advance as their own ideas. This time, neither of the big 2 were aware at all and both have reacted really badly to this enormous change. The reality is that no one knows what the outcome of this review will be as this is the first one that isn't pre-determined.

IG have tried to diversify against this risk for years but the simple truth is that there is no profit in physical share, option or futures dealing. The cost of regulation, desks and marketing alone dwarf any common revenues that could be generated.

And then there is the other problem that no one has yet considered and that is the massive future cost of retaining their key staff. All existing options packages are now worthless. Key staff who never sold their physical stock from the float but have been borrowing against it are now screwed. Already under wage pressure after moving into the City they were about to announce the moving of most roles to Poland anyway.

Add to that the question as to just how much revenue they are currently making per new account, what their long term plan is for engaging with the under 30s and there were already concerns building.

I think this stock will move about and probably be nothing but a punting stock until the FCA review is published or there is a significant announcement from the FCA.

[Dave350]

Dave350 said:

arguti said:

Good call Dave! I owe you a beer or 6!

Glad to see someone came on board. There's been huge potential in this since 30p and it's now hitting £1.22! I still think this will be hitting £1.30-£1.40 come March time.

I've made some profits buying/selling in the rise & falls of the share, although as it's such a grower (lol!), I never intend to be out of it for longer than 48 hours.

Now at £1.36!

Acquired 66% of PLT for £3.3m when it would be comfortably worth significantly more. Disappointing they didn't exercise the full extent of the option but hey ho.

Now also confirmed via RNS as the front runner for Nasty Gal which is a bankrupt American company with intellectual property that would be of value to BOO. This acquisition is slightly concerning as the value appears to have more risk associated with it.

£1.60 is my next milestone target.

[twinturboz]

So fess up whose bearish into next year? Or has everyone turned bullish like practically every analyst out there.

[R8Steve]

twinturboz said:

So fess up whose bearish into next year? Or has everyone turned bullish like practically every analyst out there.

I am.

Every analyst turning bullish is my signal to do the opposite.

[Fittster]

twinturboz said:

So fess up whose bearish into next year? Or has everyone turned bullish like practically every analyst out there.

1. Fed may finally be raising rates.
2. High corporate debt (see point 1).
3. Sluggish world trade (It's been going down for a while and now we have Trump and Brexit).
4. Continued poor business investment
5. Stock Markets aren't cheap.

Hopefully that will turn up some bargains by the end of 2017.

[twinturboz]

I have to admit I was equally as bullish, going back through this thread around August time I said "anything under 2040 in the Spx I'd view as a buying opportunity for a rough target of 2500 before a much larger move down."

~ 2030 was the lows in futures after Trump election, however what's been amazing is not only the size and speed of the move, which over the last 2 years shouldn't really be a surprise but the sentiment shift.

Most pundits went from bearish to outright bullish after Trump, the market has rocketed 10% but more importantly it feels like euphoria, if every bit of good news is priced in what's going to take the market higher?. This last rally we've had most of it has come on the back of the financials.

Currently to me feels like a carbon copy of last December, fed calling for 3/4 hikes, $ rally, Yen weakness, which all caused an issue for China add to that earnings arn't going to be great with what the $ has done and future guidance has to come down. The macro doesn't support current valuations, personally I think we're looking at a relatively rapid reset of valuations and I think it comes soon. I'm looking at brexit levels at the very minimum, in spx so around 1980 but with the size and speed of some of the moves we've had, a 20% move down in the first half of the year wouldn't surprise me that would take the Spx to that 1800 level.