Spread betting as a full time occupation...
Discussion
g4ry13 said:
NoelWatson said:
g4ry13 said:
ringram said:
Always priced in eh. Rubbish.
EMH is history dude, get with the program.
Animal Spirits is where its at.
In the words of someone who's made a lot from investing in stock market. EMH is history dude, get with the program.
Animal Spirits is where its at.
"I'd be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient." (Mr W Buffett)
R11ysf said:
The key to this game and making money from it is not marrying yourself to a view, but getting a feeling for the market and the communal thoughts and going with it. There a very few people in this world who outsmart the market and they have amazing stories. It would be great to be Soros and take on the Bank of England, but for every 1 of him there are thousands who went bust. To actually trade you reassess your view all the time, constantly changing your opinion as the market dynamically evolves.
You can make a lot of money just being one of the crowd. Just remember in this game you pay to learn but if you make it out the other side there is no job/career/side hobby in the world like it
You can make a lot of money just being one of the crowd. Just remember in this game you pay to learn but if you make it out the other side there is no job/career/side hobby in the world like it
marky1 said:
Wasn't sure whether to post, but here I am.
I've been trading futures for 10 years. Have many thoughts and opinions that I'll add to this thread with time but for now, just wanted to say there is a lot of money to be made in the market and it's not as complex as people make out.
Here's a story for you, a few years back I was trying to get out of some FTSE100 futures. I went bid on 120 lots to try and get a small offer filled (just to spoof the market - back then 120 FTSE was quite big) BANG - filled straight away on the offer. It happens sometimes but it caught my eye, was just so quick. So I put a small bid in and went offered on 120 lots - BANG, filled on the bid. So, someone had a black box programmed that lifted a bid or hit an offer if some size came into the market.
So what did I do. Well I sat there for two month triggering this black box dozens of times a day - was doing about 15000 lots a day on the FTSE and was told by LIFFE I was the second largest volume trader in the world at the time (one of the banks was top) Took a high six figure sum out of it - never made money so easily but just want you all to know sometimes it IS easy - not everyone is as smart as you think! (After about 2 months someone must have decided to check how their black box was doing and realised I had cleaned it out - they turned it off)
Things like this happen all the time, usually in immature markets. I found a similar thing in the Euribor markets where market makers were making their markets in the late evenings purely off the book and not in realtion to the treasuries. For 2 months I manipulated them up and down and took over 6 figures out of them in less than 2 hours each day. There are so many things which work for a short period and then die out. As traders we are constantly looking for the next thing.I've been trading futures for 10 years. Have many thoughts and opinions that I'll add to this thread with time but for now, just wanted to say there is a lot of money to be made in the market and it's not as complex as people make out.
Here's a story for you, a few years back I was trying to get out of some FTSE100 futures. I went bid on 120 lots to try and get a small offer filled (just to spoof the market - back then 120 FTSE was quite big) BANG - filled straight away on the offer. It happens sometimes but it caught my eye, was just so quick. So I put a small bid in and went offered on 120 lots - BANG, filled on the bid. So, someone had a black box programmed that lifted a bid or hit an offer if some size came into the market.
So what did I do. Well I sat there for two month triggering this black box dozens of times a day - was doing about 15000 lots a day on the FTSE and was told by LIFFE I was the second largest volume trader in the world at the time (one of the banks was top) Took a high six figure sum out of it - never made money so easily but just want you all to know sometimes it IS easy - not everyone is as smart as you think! (After about 2 months someone must have decided to check how their black box was doing and realised I had cleaned it out - they turned it off)
Edited by marky1 on Friday 22 October 21:59
Edited by R11ysf on Monday 25th October 12:21
marky1 said:
DonkeyApple said:
marky1 said:
Wasn't sure whether to post, but here I am.
I've been trading futures for 10 years. Have many thoughts and opinions that I'll add to this thread with time but for now, just wanted to say there is a lot of money to be made in the market and it's not as complex as people make out.
Here's a story for you, a few years back I was trying to get out of some FTSE100 futures. I went bid on 120 lots to try and get a small offer filled (just to spoof the market - back then 120 FTSE was quite big) BANG - filled straight away on the offer. It happens sometimes but it caught my eye, was just so quick. So I put a small bid in and went offered on 120 lots - BANG, filled on the bid. So, someone had a black box programmed that lifted a bid or hit an offer if some size came into the market.
So what did I do. Well I sat there for two month triggering this black box dozens of times a day - was doing about 15000 lots a day on the FTSE and was told by LIFFE I was the second largest volume trader in the world at the time (one of the banks was top) Took a high six figure sum out of it - never made money so easily but just want you all to know sometimes it IS easy - not everyone is as smart as you think! (After about 2 months someone must have decided to check how their black box was doing and realised I had cleaned it out - they turned it off)
Indeed, you can find events like this in the underlying market. You can't access them via spreads as you are hitting the broker's book, not the market.I've been trading futures for 10 years. Have many thoughts and opinions that I'll add to this thread with time but for now, just wanted to say there is a lot of money to be made in the market and it's not as complex as people make out.
Here's a story for you, a few years back I was trying to get out of some FTSE100 futures. I went bid on 120 lots to try and get a small offer filled (just to spoof the market - back then 120 FTSE was quite big) BANG - filled straight away on the offer. It happens sometimes but it caught my eye, was just so quick. So I put a small bid in and went offered on 120 lots - BANG, filled on the bid. So, someone had a black box programmed that lifted a bid or hit an offer if some size came into the market.
So what did I do. Well I sat there for two month triggering this black box dozens of times a day - was doing about 15000 lots a day on the FTSE and was told by LIFFE I was the second largest volume trader in the world at the time (one of the banks was top) Took a high six figure sum out of it - never made money so easily but just want you all to know sometimes it IS easy - not everyone is as smart as you think! (After about 2 months someone must have decided to check how their black box was doing and realised I had cleaned it out - they turned it off)
Edited by marky1 on Friday 22 October 21:59
Most people can't meet the higher margins but that is a good clue that the pot isn't large enough to make a living.
ShadownINja said:
DonkeyApple said:
Betfair's Elmec when it launches might be an interesting product but it's a gamble as to whether they will have sufficient liquidity.
What's this?Went live this morning.
It's betfair for markets.
It can only work if it has critical mass within a short period and the institutions keep supplying with liquidity.
The Aussies tried a similar system on their own exchange and it didn't work.
DonkeyApple said:
ringram said:
Always priced in eh. Rubbish.
EMH is history dude, get with the program.
Animal Spirits is where its at.
http://www.animalspirits.com/ ?EMH is history dude, get with the program.
Animal Spirits is where its at.
I thought Mystec was bonkers.
Markets reflect human greed, emotion, hopes, fears, wants etc, not 100% mathematical certainties.
But Im sure you know that.
Value investors can crunch numbers and in the long term like buffet should win out. But over the short term there is plenty of human animals messing around with stuff by overreacting, panicking, getting greedy etc.
Given the market is people its no wonder it can stay irrational longer than any one individual can stay solvent. There is a lot of irrationality out there!
ringram said:
DonkeyApple said:
ringram said:
Always priced in eh. Rubbish.
EMH is history dude, get with the program.
Animal Spirits is where its at.
http://www.animalspirits.com/ ?EMH is history dude, get with the program.
Animal Spirits is where its at.
I thought Mystec was bonkers.
Markets reflect human greed, emotion, hopes, fears, wants etc, not 100% mathematical certainties.
But Im sure you know that.
Value investors can crunch numbers and in the long term like buffet should win out. But over the short term there is plenty of human animals messing around with stuff by overreacting, panicking, getting greedy etc.
Given the market is people its no wonder it can stay irrational longer than any one individual can stay solvent. There is a lot of irrationality out there!
Nope. Not unless you think someone can predict the future. Its like trying to herd cats!
How does anyone know how people will think the next day. Anything could happen Tsunami, Virus outbreak, terrorist attack etc.
Unless you are suggesting Homo Sapiens is not an animal!? Then its behaviour will mimic other animals... which it does..
(ie) more based on short term wants and needs than long term mathematical analysis.
Gives the more mentally stable amongst us the chance to buy or sell based on market animals over-actions which diverge from fair value.
It just depends on how good you are at ascertaining which assets have diverged from fair value
I suck at it, but Im trying to learn. Im a buy and hold person at present.
How does anyone know how people will think the next day. Anything could happen Tsunami, Virus outbreak, terrorist attack etc.
Unless you are suggesting Homo Sapiens is not an animal!? Then its behaviour will mimic other animals... which it does..
(ie) more based on short term wants and needs than long term mathematical analysis.
Gives the more mentally stable amongst us the chance to buy or sell based on market animals over-actions which diverge from fair value.
It just depends on how good you are at ascertaining which assets have diverged from fair value
I suck at it, but Im trying to learn. Im a buy and hold person at present.
ringram said:
Nope. Not unless you think someone can predict the future. Its like trying to herd cats!
How does anyone know how people will think the next day. Anything could happen Tsunami, Virus outbreak, terrorist attack etc.
Unless you are suggesting Homo Sapiens is not an animal!? Then its behaviour will mimic other animals... which it does..
(ie) more based on short term wants and needs than long term mathematical analysis.
Gives the more mentally stable amongst us the chance to buy or sell based on market animals over-actions which diverge from fair value.
It just depends on how good you are at ascertaining which assets have diverged from fair value
I suck at it, but Im trying to learn. Im a buy and hold person at present.
Determining ultra short term discrepencies of an asset from it's typical level can be done with a pro data feed and an Excel spreadsheet.How does anyone know how people will think the next day. Anything could happen Tsunami, Virus outbreak, terrorist attack etc.
Unless you are suggesting Homo Sapiens is not an animal!? Then its behaviour will mimic other animals... which it does..
(ie) more based on short term wants and needs than long term mathematical analysis.
Gives the more mentally stable amongst us the chance to buy or sell based on market animals over-actions which diverge from fair value.
It just depends on how good you are at ascertaining which assets have diverged from fair value
I suck at it, but Im trying to learn. Im a buy and hold person at present.
It works well but is not scaleable as you are operating by definition in a thin liquidity pool.
Event trading is another plausible scenario. We had one today at 3pm when the US indicies reacted quite strongly in a matter of moments, as did the Dax but the FTSE mostly ignored. This created a variance between Dax and FTSE which you would arb out on the view that they would move back into alignment during the rest of the session.
ringram said:
Yeah Im suggesting time requirements with a full time job make it impossible!
It would be difficult. Event trading is the easier route if you can arrange 15 min breaks at that time. Position building on oversold assets is another option.But most people who think about trading full time do so because they are too lazy to proceed in conventional employment and are looking for an easy way to make money.
These people fail for obvious reasons.
Those who have the ability to put the time, effort and thinking in can do well but these people are normally doing well in full employment and so have no need to trade.
I recall the first time I read Reminisces of a Stock Operator (you should read it if you haven't already).
It sets out so clearly why people fail. I forget the exact detail, but this is how it sticks in my mind
A guy with a very successful printing business, that he has built up over 10+ years wants to become a trader and wants to start as a big dog. The Stock Operator does foresee disaster.... just as if I came to you and asked you what I should do if I wanted to run a successful printing business, I will tell you that trading needs a lot of learning, a lot of experience, a lot of effort and a chunk of money.
Going into trading without putting in the necessary effort, time and capital is, surely, a recipe for disaster.
I don't trade full time, but I have trades on most of the time and spend 1.5 hours per day on charts, research etc. I noted that a significant milestone was the day my forex notes / files and stuff first took up more space on shelves than the stuff I had accumulated in getting my first degree and MBA (five years of combined studying)! That was some time ago and it keeps growing.
It sets out so clearly why people fail. I forget the exact detail, but this is how it sticks in my mind
A guy with a very successful printing business, that he has built up over 10+ years wants to become a trader and wants to start as a big dog. The Stock Operator does foresee disaster.... just as if I came to you and asked you what I should do if I wanted to run a successful printing business, I will tell you that trading needs a lot of learning, a lot of experience, a lot of effort and a chunk of money.
Going into trading without putting in the necessary effort, time and capital is, surely, a recipe for disaster.
I don't trade full time, but I have trades on most of the time and spend 1.5 hours per day on charts, research etc. I noted that a significant milestone was the day my forex notes / files and stuff first took up more space on shelves than the stuff I had accumulated in getting my first degree and MBA (five years of combined studying)! That was some time ago and it keeps growing.
JPJPJP said:
I recall the first time I read Reminisces of a Stock Operator (you should read it if you haven't already).
It sets out so clearly why people fail. I forget the exact detail, but this is how it sticks in my mind
A guy with a very successful printing business, that he has built up over 10+ years wants to become a trader and wants to start as a big dog. The Stock Operator does foresee disaster.... just as if I came to you and asked you what I should do if I wanted to run a successful printing business, I will tell you that trading needs a lot of learning, a lot of experience, a lot of effort and a chunk of money.
Going into trading without putting in the necessary effort, time and capital is, surely, a recipe for disaster.
I don't trade full time, but I have trades on most of the time and spend 1.5 hours per day on charts, research etc. I noted that a significant milestone was the day my forex notes / files and stuff first took up more space on shelves than the stuff I had accumulated in getting my first degree and MBA (five years of combined studying)! That was some time ago and it keeps growing.
Plenty of smart people who have done extremely well in their own line open up trading accounts and bin all their money, or allow someone half their age to talk them out of their money on the phone.It sets out so clearly why people fail. I forget the exact detail, but this is how it sticks in my mind
A guy with a very successful printing business, that he has built up over 10+ years wants to become a trader and wants to start as a big dog. The Stock Operator does foresee disaster.... just as if I came to you and asked you what I should do if I wanted to run a successful printing business, I will tell you that trading needs a lot of learning, a lot of experience, a lot of effort and a chunk of money.
Going into trading without putting in the necessary effort, time and capital is, surely, a recipe for disaster.
I don't trade full time, but I have trades on most of the time and spend 1.5 hours per day on charts, research etc. I noted that a significant milestone was the day my forex notes / files and stuff first took up more space on shelves than the stuff I had accumulated in getting my first degree and MBA (five years of combined studying)! That was some time ago and it keeps growing.
Failure to put trading into context is a huge problem. If you asked the same person if they would allow someone in their firm with a couple of years experience to tell them how to do their job or if you asked them if it were possible for someone to do their job after reading a bulletin board for a week they would assume you were completely mental!!!
It takes time and concentration, but most people just want to get rich quick and so they just lose fast. You onlyhave to see the shocking turds peddled in the so called financial press to see this.
Only last week a publication was touting that if you filled out a form on their website they would tell you the 4 stocks that were going to destroy them. And you know what, I bet you thousands of idiots have filled out that form and will now be being sold all sorts of tat that will make them rich really quickly.
ZondaMark said:
marky1 said:
someone had a black box programmed that lifted a bid or hit an offer if some size came into the market.
Forgive my ignorance as I'm new to trading, but shouldn't that be the other way round?Edited by ZondaMark on Monday 25th October 19:21
marky1 said:
ZondaMark said:
marky1 said:
someone had a black box programmed that lifted a bid or hit an offer if some size came into the market.
Forgive my ignorance as I'm new to trading, but shouldn't that be the other way round?Edited by ZondaMark on Monday 25th October 19:21
So if I've understood correctly, the black box was programmed to 'jump in' ahead of large bids/offers, in the expectation said bids/offers would have to be revised up/down to get filled, and you tricked it into thinking this was happening?
ZondaMark said:
marky1 said:
ZondaMark said:
marky1 said:
someone had a black box programmed that lifted a bid or hit an offer if some size came into the market.
Forgive my ignorance as I'm new to trading, but shouldn't that be the other way round?Edited by ZondaMark on Monday 25th October 19:21
So if I've understood correctly, the black box was programmed to 'jump in' ahead of large bids/offers, in the expectation said bids/offers would have to be revised up/down to get filled, and you tricked it into thinking this was happening?
In practice though I used to try and build up a position first, i.e buy 5001 buy 5002 buy 5003 and then bid the market in size whilst being offered at say 5004 (and then try and reverse the whole process)
FTSE trades in half ticks but these numbers are just to explain)
Edited by marky1 on Tuesday 26th October 14:47
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