Spread betting as a full time occupation...

[anonymous-user]

Wow for someone whose supposedly a professional at a hedge fund, you sure do know everything about the marketing world. Are you Richard Hill? Or do you just buy/subscribe to most Agora/Cannonbury products?

[DonkeyApple]

Another one who'll be flogging a mystical system so as to get his money back. I do wonder what has happened to all his other schemes over the years...hmmmmmm.

http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pages/Library/Communication/...

One down. Many many, more to go. And I wonder where the eyeballs are at the moment?

[NorthernBoy]

Dubai said:

Are you seriously trying to tell me you have to me a math genius to be a good trader?

No, I'm saying that I suspect that your maths is not good enough for you to have found the flaw in your scheme. I also know enough about trading to know that there certainly is a flaw. That's why I get paid to trade, and have done for so long.

[NorthernBoy]

Dubai said:

Prove to me my strategy doesn't work in current market conditions. I will guarantee you that you can't.

But just to be sure, you're not going to tell me what it is...

You, son, are deluded. I'll leave you to it, just don't come crying back here when it all goes wrong.

If you do change your mind, I'm happy to share with you my expertise, but if you prefer to boast and preen without producing any data then you'll be filed alongside that bloke in the pub who says he used to be in the SAS.

Ask yourself this, are you really so clever that you know more than the experts?

Oh, and edited to say, can you please PM me your details? I want to check with the FSA that you are licensed for this, as you claim to be selling a trading system. If you are above board, then you ought to be fine with this. If you are not, then you need to be shut down.

Edited by NorthernBoy on Tuesday 14th June 18:44

[DonkeyApple]

NorthernBoy said:

But just to be sure, you're not going to tell me what it is...

You, son, are deluded. I'll leave you to it, just don't come crying back here when it all goes wrong.

If you do change your mind, I'm happy to share with you my expertise, but if you prefer to boast and preen without producing any data then you'll be filed alongside that bloke in the pub who says he used to be in the SAS.

Ask yourself this, are you really so clever that you know more than the experts?

Oh, and edited to say, can you please PM me your details? I want to check with the FSA that you are licensed for this, as you claim to be selling a trading system. If you are above board, then you ought to be fine with this. If you are not, then you need to be shut down.

Edited by NorthernBoy on Tuesday 14th June 18:44

He's selling a manual, not giving specific trades.

They love selling manuals because there is no VAT on books

The manual often comes with a period of free 'tips' but I don't know in this case.

The other one is to download data and run a program with client adjustable variables to obtain the signals. This also will permit the argument that the client is creating their own trades.

The real upside though to selling a system where the client has to work out the final trades is that all the results are different so some win and will supply glowing testimonials while others lose. Either way it is not the system that is at fault but errors by the client in how they are interpreting it.

The final joy is that you have no marketing restrictions so you can claim any stats you like. The more ludicrous the better.

Most of these ruses are well tried and tested and their are several solicitors and ex compliance people well known for helping structure them.

Oh, and your point about not having worked out the flaw? Spot on. But that is assuming he is a genuine green outsider who has stumbled across this industry that sells systems and not one of the well known chappies beggaring around under yet another pseudonym.

[marky1]

DonkeyApple said:

Another one who'll be flogging a mystical system so as to get his money back. I do wonder what has happened to all his other schemes over the years...hmmmmmm.

http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pages/Library/Communication/...

One down. Many many, more to go. And I wonder where the eyeballs are at the moment?

Yet if a bank does this in a more "sophisticated" manner, they get away with it. The system is skewed against the small guy.....

[DonkeyApple]

marky1 said:

Yet if a bank does this in a more "sophisticated" manner, they get away with it. The system is skewed against the small guy.....

Nope the small guy skews it against the small guy by selling the dream to themselves.

Systems need to be extremely complex to become semi reliable and it takes years of experience and phenomenal mathematics to rule out all the obvious pitfalls. Then you need an excellent brain to monitor the system and adjust and react accordingly.

If you are going to try and deliver a system to retail punters then you need to not only cover this but strip it down to its very elements thus removing hedges and anything non vanilla etc.

This means that when it comes to systems for the retail Market you have to look at plays on liquidity. Something you are not going to ever get on FX.

The reason that fx systems have appeared in the retail Market stems historically from two factors. First that fx wasn't originally regulated so all the sharks headed into it when futures became regulated. Second, there is no central exchange so a broker derives their own price for retail which meant in the early days it was the preserve of spank shops.

The final bit of the puzzle was that UK vendors started buying pre packed fx sales packs for systems from Florida, the home of spankers.

This is when fx retails vols in the UK began to grow and has since become the largest flow for spread houses.

But getting back to the point, retail punters wipe themselves out because they are lazy and think some system will do it all for them. They are their own worst enemy.

Once a punter begins to think for themselves and appreciates that their brain is as good as anyone else's then they can begin to make money.

[DonkeyApple]

marky1 said:

DonkeyApple said:

Another one who'll be flogging a mystical system so as to get his money back. I do wonder what has happened to all his other schemes over the years...hmmmmmm.

http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pages/Library/Communication/...

One down. Many many, more to go. And I wonder where the eyeballs are at the moment?

Yet if a bank does this in a more "sophisticated" manner, they get away with it. The system is skewed against the small guy.....

Also, don't go thinking that this chap was a retail punter as he is trying to make out in the medi this week.

Google 'Echelon' for an insight into track record.

[NorthernBoy]

ZondaMark said:

Are (any of) you familiar with these or others which would be useful for the aspiring options trader?

I always recommend Baxter and Rennie's "Financial Calculus", as it's an interestingly different way of looking at things.

Most books aren't very good. They are written for quants, and are pretty indigestible. Wilmott has some big book of Derivatives which seems to cover plenty, too. Oh, also Commodities and Commodity derivatives, or somesch, by Helyette Geman.

I've never managed to work my way through any of them, I'm afraid. I learned most of what I know by trial and error, or by working with good people who were willing to share what they knew.

[coanda]

So what's the consensus on 'way of the turtle' ? I have just started reading it, and am struck by the links to behavioural psychology from the off. I am looking forward to reading thd rest of the book, but am a bit worried its a bit sensationalist. Maybe the jacket needs to be to get people to read it (I became aware of it through a comment on here somewhere), I just hope there's plenty of substance to back it up.

[NoelWatson]

coanda said:

So what's the consensus on 'way of the turtle' ? I have just started reading it, and am struck by the links to behavioural psychology from the off. I am looking forward to reading thd rest of the book, but am a bit worried its a bit sensationalist. Maybe the jacket needs to be to get people to read it (I became aware of it through a comment on here somewhere), I just hope there's plenty of substance to back it up.

I've no idea how it could work. Who is the head of the turtle strategy?

[coanda]

Ahhh, its about a group of guys trained by Richard Dennis back in 1983. It is written by Curtis M. Faith. This chap apparently turned $31.5m in profit for Dennis.

[NoelWatson]

coanda said:

Ahhh, its about a group of guys trained by Richard Dennis back in 1983. It is written by Curtis M. Faith. This chap apparently turned $31.5m in profit for Dennis.

Who is the current turtle's head?

[anonymous-user]

NoelWatson said:

Who is the current turtle's head?

Is that a trick question?

[matsmith]

Why have you made the myfxbook links private John?

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/AFFx/affx-beta-ea/...
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/AFFx/affx-ea-beta/...

[anonymous-user]

matsmith said:

Why have you made the myfxbook links private John?

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/AFFx/affx-beta-ea/...
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/AFFx/affx-ea-beta/...

Because they are private? I showed them first time to show that whilst the EA is in development, profit is still be turned.

Members have access to all the results and receive the weekly statements.

[coanda]

NoelWatson said:

coanda said:

Ahhh, its about a group of guys trained by Richard Dennis back in 1983. It is written by Curtis M. Faith. This chap apparently turned $31.5m in profit for Dennis.

Who is the current turtle's head?

More info here Noel.....

Trading Blox was started by Curtis M. Faith.

http://originalturtles.tradingblox.com/
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/tu...

Did you mean Mike Baghdady?
http://www.newturtletraders.com/

I've just drawn that out from google. I'm looking at this from the outside, so I don't know how people in the trading world feel about this or the people involved with it. It must be similar to the aerospace world - we all know people and we know who we like and who we don't like, who we'd want working for us and why.

[RemainAllHoof]

coanda said:

So what's the consensus on 'way of the turtle' ?

I heard it got too popular and now doesn't work because some traders knew where stops etc were placed and how people traded with the system so took advantage of this. Wait, are you being clever about trying to get someone to write this as a reason why Dubai shouldn't tell everyone his strategy?

[coanda]

RemainAllHoof said:

I heard it got too popular and now doesn't work because some traders knew where stops etc were placed and how people traded with the system so took advantage of this. Wait, are you being clever about trying to get someone to write this as a reason why Dubai shouldn't tell everyone his strategy?

I'm not that clever, it's a genuine enquiry, but when you put it like that......

[RemainAllHoof]

coanda said:

I'm not that clever, it's a genuine enquiry, but when you put it like that......

It was a reason given some time ago as to why, if Dubai's strategy was a winner, he wouldn't (or shouldn't) be telling the world about it. It could be a bit like the old "Macs don't have viruses" idea, but without knowing Dubai's strategy in detail, I cannot tell.