Lottery is a bit crap
Discussion
spikey78 said:
I play one line week, same numbers and have done for ever.. I haven't even won a tenner for probably 4 years or more. Now the games changed and the odds are so much worse I think it's a good time to start wasting money elsewhere..
Yeah but you can't stop in case your numbers come up! This is why I've only ever done lucky dip 
I can see why they have revamped it, they are obviously seeing the success of the Big euro jackpot and want to emulate it. Increasing the jackpot with more rollovers and more punters putting a lucky dip on last minute.
However its been woefully executed. Your loyal fan Base who weathered the two quid hike, because of "well if my numbers come up" now have a great excuse to walk away. Adding in an extra ten balls just makes these people think, sod it, this is just the excuse I'm looking for.
Ten years ago everyone played the lottery, at the two quid hike I struggle to find anyone who still does it. Now no one does it.
However its been woefully executed. Your loyal fan Base who weathered the two quid hike, because of "well if my numbers come up" now have a great excuse to walk away. Adding in an extra ten balls just makes these people think, sod it, this is just the excuse I'm looking for.
Ten years ago everyone played the lottery, at the two quid hike I struggle to find anyone who still does it. Now no one does it.
moanthebairns said:
I can see why they have revamped it, they are obviously seeing the success of the Big euro jackpot and want to emulate it. Increasing the jackpot with more rollovers and more punters putting a lucky dip on last minute.
However its been woefully executed. Your loyal fan Base who weathered the two quid hike, because of "well if my numbers come up" now have a great excuse to walk away. Adding in an extra ten balls just makes these people think, sod it, this is just the excuse I'm looking for.
Ten years ago everyone played the lottery, at the two quid hike I struggle to find anyone who still does it. Now no one does it.
A lot of poorer people do. Many see it as the only way out of their situation. Sad really. However its been woefully executed. Your loyal fan Base who weathered the two quid hike, because of "well if my numbers come up" now have a great excuse to walk away. Adding in an extra ten balls just makes these people think, sod it, this is just the excuse I'm looking for.
Ten years ago everyone played the lottery, at the two quid hike I struggle to find anyone who still does it. Now no one does it.
Lets people dream of a better life. I call it the "National Letdown".
TTmonkey said:
A lot of poorer people do. Many see it as the only way out of their situation. Sad really.
Lets people dream of a better life. I call it the "National Letdown".
People DO dream of a better life when they see the jackpot being won. At 45,000,000 to 1, they're clearly not seeing enough sales for it to be regularly won. That dream has died.Lets people dream of a better life. I call it the "National Letdown".
Unless £1300 gives you the dream you long for,
Pork said:
TTmonkey said:
A lot of poorer people do. Many see it as the only way out of their situation. Sad really.
Lets people dream of a better life. I call it the "National Letdown".
People DO dream of a better life when they see the jackpot being won. At 45,000,000 to 1, they're clearly not seeing enough sales for it to be regularly won. That dream has died.Lets people dream of a better life. I call it the "National Letdown".
Unless £1300 gives you the dream you long for,
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TTmonkey said:
No. You've doubled your chances but not made any significant difference to the odds.
Well you've halved the odds, which is significant. However, 1 in 45m is a very remote possiblity. 1 in 22.5m is twice as good, but remains a very remote possibility. Even if you bought a million tickets your odds would be down to 1 in 45, which is still poor. If you were going in for an op and were told you had a 1 in 45 chance of survival, you'd be pretty gutted. You wouldn't be buying any green bananas.TwigtheWonderkid said:
TTmonkey said:
No. You've doubled your chances but not made any significant difference to the odds.
Well you've halved the odds, which is significant. However, 1 in 45m is a very remote possiblity. 1 in 22.5m is twice as good, but remains a very remote possibility. Even if you bought a million tickets your odds would be down to 1 in 45, which is still poor. If you were going in for an op and were told you had a 1 in 45 chance of survival, you'd be pretty gutted. You wouldn't be buying any green bananas.If you buy 2 tickets you have a 2 in 45m chance, not a 1 in 22.5m one.
See the post using marbles in a swimming pool above if you want to understand.
TwigtheWonderkid said:
TTmonkey said:
No. You've doubled your chances but not made any significant difference to the odds.
Well you've halved the odds, which is significant. However, 1 in 45m is a very remote possiblity. 1 in 22.5m is twice as good, but remains a very remote possibility. Even if you bought a million tickets your odds would be down to 1 in 45, which is still poor. If you were going in for an op and were told you had a 1 in 45 chance of survival, you'd be pretty gutted. You wouldn't be buying any green bananas.loafer123 said:
TwigtheWonderkid said:
TTmonkey said:
No. You've doubled your chances but not made any significant difference to the odds.
Well you've halved the odds, which is significant. However, 1 in 45m is a very remote possiblity. 1 in 22.5m is twice as good, but remains a very remote possibility. Even if you bought a million tickets your odds would be down to 1 in 45, which is still poor. If you were going in for an op and were told you had a 1 in 45 chance of survival, you'd be pretty gutted. You wouldn't be buying any green bananas.If you buy 2 tickets you have a 2 in 45m chance, not a 1 in 22.5m one.
See the post using marbles in a swimming pool above if you want to understand.
If you only have 1 winning marble, and you removed half the balls, on average half the time you would find a marble, and half the time you wouldn't. Do it repeatedly and it would average out at 1 marble every 2 attempts. instead of an average of 1 marble every 1 attempt if there were 2 marbles.
So by doubling the number of marbles, you've doubled your odds of finding one. Even if you remove just 1 marble, that remains the case. Your odds have gone from 1 in 45m to 1 in 22.5m, but both remain ridiculously unlikely.
TwigtheWonderkid said:
loafer123 said:
TwigtheWonderkid said:
TTmonkey said:
No. You've doubled your chances but not made any significant difference to the odds.
Well you've halved the odds, which is significant. However, 1 in 45m is a very remote possiblity. 1 in 22.5m is twice as good, but remains a very remote possibility. Even if you bought a million tickets your odds would be down to 1 in 45, which is still poor. If you were going in for an op and were told you had a 1 in 45 chance of survival, you'd be pretty gutted. You wouldn't be buying any green bananas.If you buy 2 tickets you have a 2 in 45m chance, not a 1 in 22.5m one.
See the post using marbles in a swimming pool above if you want to understand.
If you only have 1 winning marble, and you removed half the balls, on average half the time you would find a marble, and half the time you wouldn't. Do it repeatedly and it would average out at 1 marble every 2 attempts. instead of an average of 1 marble every 1 attempt if there were 2 marbles.
So by doubling the number of marbles, you've doubled your odds of finding one. Even if you remove just 1 marble, that remains the case. Your odds have gone from 1 in 45m to 1 in 22.5m, but both remain ridiculously unlikely.
TwigtheWonderkid said:
If there are 2 winning marbles in 45m in a swimming pool, then there's 1 per 22.5m. If you took out half the balls on average you'd find 1. Sometimes you'd find 2 in the 22.5m you picked, sometimes you'd find none, but if you did it over and over it would average out at 1 per 22.5m marbles.
If you only have 1 winning marble, and you removed half the balls, on average half the time you would find a marble, and half the time you wouldn't. Do it repeatedly and it would average out at 1 marble every 2 attempts. instead of an average of 1 marble every 1 attempt if there were 2 marbles.
So by doubling the number of marbles, you've doubled your odds of finding one. Even if you remove just 1 marble, that remains the case. Your odds have gone from 1 in 45m to 1 in 22.5m, but both remain ridiculously unlikely.
You have doubled your chances, you haven't halved the odds. There's a massive difference.If you only have 1 winning marble, and you removed half the balls, on average half the time you would find a marble, and half the time you wouldn't. Do it repeatedly and it would average out at 1 marble every 2 attempts. instead of an average of 1 marble every 1 attempt if there were 2 marbles.
So by doubling the number of marbles, you've doubled your odds of finding one. Even if you remove just 1 marble, that remains the case. Your odds have gone from 1 in 45m to 1 in 22.5m, but both remain ridiculously unlikely.
Instead of there being 44,999,999 wrong marbles there are 'only' 44,999,998. Doubles your chances but I'm sure you'll agree, not markedly.
If you wanted to better your odds, you could by spending more in a smarter way. I.e., you should pick 5 numbers and then buy 54 lines with the 6th number being other numbers between 1-59. For a mere £108 you've cut the odds from 45m to one to 7.5m to one.
Still, £108 at 7.5m to one, anything less than a £810m jackpot it's a bad bet.
If you bought 22.5m tickets, wouldn't your chances of winning be 22.5m in 45m. That's a 50% chance. How is that not odds of 1 in 2? If you did that every week, on average you'd win once a fortnight. You might not win for a month, and you might win 3 weeks running, but over a period of time, you'd win one in 2 draws.
If buying 22.5m tickets gives you odds of 1 in 2, how does buying 2 tickets not give you odds of 1 in 22.5m.
If buying 22.5m tickets gives you odds of 1 in 2, how does buying 2 tickets not give you odds of 1 in 22.5m.
TwigtheWonderkid said:
If you bought 22.5m tickets, wouldn't your chances of winning be 22.5m in 45m. That's a 50% chance. How is that not odds of 1 in 2? If you did that every week, on average you'd win once a fortnight. You might not win for a month, and you might win 3 weeks running, but over a period of time, you'd win one in 2 draws.
If buying 22.5m tickets gives you odds of 1 in 2, how does buying 2 tickets not give you odds of 1 in 22.5m.
If 22.5m tickets give you a 22.5m in 45m chance, why wouldn't 2 tickets give you a 2 in 45m chance?If buying 22.5m tickets gives you odds of 1 in 2, how does buying 2 tickets not give you odds of 1 in 22.5m.
loafer123 said:
TwigtheWonderkid said:
TTmonkey said:
No. You've doubled your chances but not made any significant difference to the odds.
Well you've halved the odds, which is significant. However, 1 in 45m is a very remote possiblity. 1 in 22.5m is twice as good, but remains a very remote possibility. Even if you bought a million tickets your odds would be down to 1 in 45, which is still poor. If you were going in for an op and were told you had a 1 in 45 chance of survival, you'd be pretty gutted. You wouldn't be buying any green bananas.If you buy 2 tickets you have a 2 in 45m chance, not a 1 in 22.5m one.
See the post using marbles in a swimming pool above if you want to understand.
1 chip = 1 in 37 chance of winning.
10 chips = 10 in 37 = 1 in 3.7 chance of winning.
37 chips = 37 in 37 = 1 in 1 = guaranteed winner.
You have increased your chance of winning 10 times by playing 10 different lines. In the lottery you've increased your chance by 1, or equally doubled your chance of winning. If the odds to start with were 1 in 43m, by doubling your chance you've reduced the probability down to 1 in 21.5m.
In your marbles example one nobody is suggesting you have 'removed' 21.5m marbles. What we are saying is that to ensure you get the coloured marble in the first place, you need to remove all 43m million of them. If you put 2 marbles in, and repeated the process time after time after time, you'd only need to remove, on average, 21.5m marbles to find one of the coloured ones. Thus you have halved your odds of finding a coloured one.
loafer123 said:
TwigtheWonderkid said:
If you bought 22.5m tickets, wouldn't your chances of winning be 22.5m in 45m. That's a 50% chance. How is that not odds of 1 in 2? If you did that every week, on average you'd win once a fortnight. You might not win for a month, and you might win 3 weeks running, but over a period of time, you'd win one in 2 draws.
If buying 22.5m tickets gives you odds of 1 in 2, how does buying 2 tickets not give you odds of 1 in 22.5m.
If 22.5m tickets give you a 22.5m in 45m chance, why wouldn't 2 tickets give you a 2 in 45m chance?If buying 22.5m tickets gives you odds of 1 in 2, how does buying 2 tickets not give you odds of 1 in 22.5m.
f
k me, didnt realise PH would have such a poor understanding of basic maths. 2/43 = 1/21.5
Just divide the whole fraction, top and bottom, by 2!
Chance and odds aren't the same thing though. But you are right about the level of maths 
The Lottery is a game of chance by definition. The more goes you have the more your chance of winning.
Gambling odds are not. Odds of 1/10, or 10 'to 1 on, mean for every 11 events your preferred outcome is likely to happen 10 times - pretty much a dead cert. I'm guessing you meant 10/1 which is the notation for 10 to 1, or 1 time out of 11.
So, to halve the odds is a different thing. If you expect something happen 1 in 10 times it's 9 to 1, but if you double the likelyhood to 1 in 5 times then the odds become 4 to 1.
The Lottery is a game of chance by definition. The more goes you have the more your chance of winning.
Gambling odds are not. Odds of 1/10, or 10 'to 1 on, mean for every 11 events your preferred outcome is likely to happen 10 times - pretty much a dead cert. I'm guessing you meant 10/1 which is the notation for 10 to 1, or 1 time out of 11.
So, to halve the odds is a different thing. If you expect something happen 1 in 10 times it's 9 to 1, but if you double the likelyhood to 1 in 5 times then the odds become 4 to 1.
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