The Official Winter Snow Thread 2014/2015

The Official Winter Snow Thread 2014/2015

Author
Discussion

Puggit

48,444 posts

248 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
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We're starting to get in to the more reliable time frames, and this has cropped up from the ECM model at 144 hours:



We can only get downgraded from here...

schmalex

13,616 posts

206 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
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I'm hoping the downgrades start happening soon. We're flying to Geneva for 4 days skiing on Friday. As much as I love snow, I'd be quite happy to not see all of the the 2.5m that's forecast to fall in Northern Alps between Thursday and Sunday

Puggit

48,444 posts

248 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
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You have got travel insurance? hehe

Bill

52,777 posts

255 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
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I can see the claim form now. biggrin

schmalex

13,616 posts

206 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
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Yes. Thank goodness. It currently looks like most snow is going to fall Thu eve - Fri midnight, with about 1.75m accumulation during that time. I've hired a mighty Polo with with winter tyres and chains, so we're going to do our damdest to get to the village (unfortunately, it's a little off the beaten track, so god knows what the French will do with the roads!!

MentalSarcasm

6,083 posts

211 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
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First time in my life I've ever seen London covered in purple O.o

schmalex

13,616 posts

206 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
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That 144 chart scares the st out of me.

With the way the CHF has gone, I can't afford to be stranded in Geneva!!!!!

Puggit

48,444 posts

248 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
quotequote all
schmalex said:
That 144 chart scares the st out of me.

With the way the CHF has gone, I can't afford to be stranded in Geneva!!!!!
£5 for a Big Mac, it was in the paper today (that's a Big Mac, not a meal...)

DJRC has lots of useful tips for being stuck in Geneva wink

MentalSarcasm

6,083 posts

211 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
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I suspect it's going to be freezing-ones-tits-off cold in London but without a single drop precipitation falling from the sky.

Puggit

48,444 posts

248 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
quotequote all
MentalSarcasm said:
I suspect it's going to be freezing-ones-tits-off cold in London but without a single drop precipitation falling from the sky.
Don't forget the rain at 2oC just as it warms up

MentalSarcasm

6,083 posts

211 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
quotequote all
Puggit said:
MentalSarcasm said:
I suspect it's going to be freezing-ones-tits-off cold in London but without a single drop precipitation falling from the sky.
Don't forget the rain at 2oC just as it warms up
grumpymadfuriousragecursebangheadmoan

There's no "sulk" emoticon, but that ^^^ is basically what I'm probably going to be doing next week.

schmalex

13,616 posts

206 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
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You see the little shortwave (kink) over S.W France?

I've that verifies, we will get absolutely buried in Les Saisies.

Puggit

48,444 posts

248 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
quotequote all
schmalex said:
You see the little shortwave (kink) over S.W France?

I've that verifies, we will get absolutely buried in Les Saisies.
Ohhhh, it had been noted hehe

Celtic Dragon

3,169 posts

235 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
quotequote all
Puggit said:
We're starting to get in to the more reliable time frames, and this has cropped up from the ECM model at 144 hours:



We can only get downgraded from here...
Wooo hoooo!!! Does a snow dance!!


Now we all sit back and watch it get down graded to naff all.

NRS

22,174 posts

201 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
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Puggit said:
schmalex said:
That 144 chart scares the st out of me.

With the way the CHF has gone, I can't afford to be stranded in Geneva!!!!!
£5 for a Big Mac, it was in the paper today (that's a Big Mac, not a meal...)

DJRC has lots of useful tips for being stuck in Geneva wink
Not sure if it's changed with the CHF now, but since we had the most expensive Big Mac in the world in Jan I won't hear any complaints on here, wink That said, the nearest place to get on is a 700km drive, biggrin

drivin_me_nuts

17,949 posts

211 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
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Sorry chaps I'm being a bit dense here, but how does that really bruised picture of western Europe correlate with snow fall? I get the colour bit, but does the deeper colour also mean snow as well as deep cold?

Puggit

48,444 posts

248 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
quotequote all
drivin_me_nuts said:
Sorry chaps I'm being a bit dense here, but how does that really bruised picture of western Europe correlate with snow fall? I get the colour bit, but does the deeper colour also mean snow as well as deep cold?
Dammit - he's got us wink

Too far out to be able to pinpoint that sort of thing. In the chart I posted tonight though, you can see low pressure NE of the UK, with winds coming from the North as low pressure has anti-clockwise winds in the northern hemisphere - so that would create a high probability of precipitation.

Schmalex gave away another clue - when you see patterns of kinks in the isobars, almost like a fold, that's a shortwave which could create a precipitation baring front.

So, we know it will be windy, and we know the winds are coming from the North. The further south you are, the more marginal the chances of snow. Height, as always, counts too.


schmalex

13,616 posts

206 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
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What could be interesting for the UK is if the high pressure sitting to the SW moves east a little. The front will then sit over the country, mixing the cold and warm air together. Often times, these frontal battleground setups deliver huge amounts of snow to Western and Southwestern areas. Particularly so in that chart, as the upper air temperatures are very cold. As Puggit said, it'll be pretty windy - mainly off Northwestern Scotland and extremely cold in a bitter Northerly, but I can't see that much ppn from that chart away from Scotland and very northern counties. If it shifts East a little, and I would be surprised if it didn't, it could be very snowy for many areas. However, if it moves east too far (only a couple of hundred miles), we get 12 hours of sleet and then 4 / 5c temps.

Snow in the UK is always such a knife edge!

Edited by schmalex on Saturday 24th January 20:28

Puggit

48,444 posts

248 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
quotequote all
I'm not buying in to this, I think it will rain but GFS chart is going for nationwide snow on Weds:

(heaviest snow in SE)


MentalSarcasm

6,083 posts

211 months

Saturday 24th January 2015
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rofl