The Official Winter Snow Thread 2014/2015

[ALawson]

We left Val a few years ago first thing in the morning, in some small French car, after a 1m dump the previous night.

Everyone put the chains on, I just trusted in the snow tyres which were fine all the way down the valley. The roads had obviously been cleared, it was the locals overtaking at 80kph that was the most worrying!

I am sure a polo will be fine if you have winter tyres and/or chains. More importantly when will the Met Office revise their forecast for the UK for the end of the week.

We are supposed to be taking a tower crane down next to the Shard this weekend!

[GetCarter]

Alex@POD said:

i'm loving the forecasts for next week, I'm planning to move house on wednesday!

On another note, I was up Great Gable last weekend! It was interesting trying to follow the invisible path... We saw all sorts of people up there, from fully kitted with ice axes at the ready, to fell runners in leggings and trainers (in a foot of snow).

O/T but worth the telling. Here in Torridon - 2009 IIRC - a friend of mine who is in the mountain rescue team was doing the yearly nightime winter training on Liathach (3,140 ft). It was heavy snow up there and along the ridge they *literally* tripped up over something. It was a walker that had fallen and was in the process of dying from hypothermia. They got him down and he lived. ANY other night that winter he would have died. Hope he bought a lotto ticket that week!

[Puggit]

onyx39 said:

could this massive "event" mean any snow for us? I know we sometimes get the tailend of their storms etc.

The storm in the US is influencing our weather, but not in a direct way.

The only real direct influences we have are hurricanes which boomerang off the eastern seaboard and then hitch a ride on the jet stream to hit us.

The jet stream is about to bend south of us and hit Spain/The Med

[Puggit]

Some downgrades, finally - but these are in the mid term time frame. We're still due a blast of cold air on Weds/Thurs, with associated snow especially in NW areas. The weekend will be even colder.

There's no deep freeze, and at this time, no forecast massive dumping of snow. The wind chill will be the most notable feature.

When some snow is due, the news will certainly be put in here.

[schmalex]

and for the Alps...?

[Puggit]

schmalex said:

and for the Alps...?

That's not my problem

[schmalex]

Looks like the worst of it over there is overnight each night on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Assuming they keep the roads clear enough to get up the hill, we may be in for some incredible powder skiing (albeit in pretty cloudy weather). I don't really care if we get stuck in the town on Monday!!

[tenohfive]

goldblum said:

Not a lot. If they were fell runners they'd have been carrying backpacks containing survival aids such as compass, food and jacket etc.

http://www.mountain.rescue.org.uk/mountain-advice

Mountain Rescue said:

In winter conditions, an ice-axe, crampons and survival bag are essential.

If you slip on snow and start sliding towards a significant drop, there are only two things that are likely to stop you going over the edge - an ice axe (and the ability to use it to self arrest) or plain old luck. If a significant amount of snow is on the ground an ice axe and crampons should be carried, and if they aren't then you shouldn't be up there.

[spikeyhead]

tenohfive said:

goldblum said:

Not a lot. If they were fell runners they'd have been carrying backpacks containing survival aids such as compass, food and jacket etc.

http://www.mountain.rescue.org.uk/mountain-advice

Mountain Rescue said:

In winter conditions, an ice-axe, crampons and survival bag are essential.

If you slip on snow and start sliding towards a significant drop, there are only two things that are likely to stop you going over the edge - an ice axe (and the ability to use it to self arrest) or plain old luck. If a significant amount of snow is on the ground an ice axe and crampons should be carried, and if they aren't then you shouldn't be up there.

Has it occurred to you that the average fell runner who is up there at this time of year is doing the same route every other day? They'll all know the score, and even most of the potholes. Life is not about being wrapped in cotton wool.

[Wills2]

onyx39 said:

could this massive "event" mean any snow for us? I know we sometimes get the tailend of their storms etc.

If you mean the US event, generally when they get loads of snow we get lots of rain like last year, the temp difference between north and south America hurls the weather across on the jet stream which warms up over the ocean giving us lots of wind and rain.

What can happen is for a an easterly wind to bite into the UK which when the warm wet system hits that can result in snow where the two collide.

But as puggit said the jet stream is currently or will be below us.

[goldblum]

spikeyhead said:

Has it occurred to you that the average fell runner who is up there at this time of year is doing the same route every other day? They'll all know the score, and even most of the potholes. Life is not about being wrapped in cotton wool.

Quite.

Funnily enough I've just returned from skiing in Italy with a number of mates who are MR...and also competitive fell runners. It's numpties like toh5 who best leave the wild outdoors alone until spring has sprung - or when the met office's amber weather warnings might cease and allow him outside.

[Puggit]

GFS now showing some snow across pretty much the entire country for Weds night in to Thursday. West is Best. Nothing heavy in the South - but some parts haven't seen snow for almost 2 years.

Early *tentative* signs of something special coming up in terms of length and depth of cold - but let's wait and see.

Edited by Puggit on Monday 26th January 11:05

[tenohfive]

spikeyhead said:

Has it occurred to you that the average fell runner who is up there at this time of year is doing the same route every other day? They'll all know the score, and even most of the potholes. Life is not about being wrapped in cotton wool.

The overwhelming majority know their limits, I accept that. And my post wasn't totally clear - it was directed more at the inexperienced hill walkers who through their ignorance aren't aware of the dangers involved. There are of course a number of fell runners who will push themselves past the point of safety, but on the whole I agree with you that most know exactly what they're doing. (As do most hill walkers - this isn't directed at the responsible ones.)

goldblum said:

Quite.

Funnily enough I've just returned from skiing in Italy with a number of mates who are MR...and also competitive fell runners. It's numpties like toh5 who best leave the wild outdoors alone until spring has sprung - or when the met office's amber weather warnings might cease and allow him outside.

I'm sure your MR mates would love the, 'just give it a go, what can go wrong?' attitude you're suggesting.

Whether you like it or not there are a good chunk of people up on the hills, right now, who don't have the skills or experience to stop themselves getting into trouble. It's luck that's keeping most of that segment safe. I'm all for getting people up there - so long as they aren't going to become a burden on the emergency services such as SAR and MRT's through avoidable mistakes.

If you don't like me pushing a simple message that MRT's, the BMC, MCoS et al. all push every winter - to be aware of the risks and have the skills and equipment to mitigate against them - well, that's just tough.

[leglessAlex]

Puggit said:

GFS now showing some snow across pretty much the entire country (barring far SW) for Weds night in to Thursday. Nothing heavy in the South - but some parts haven't seen snow for almost 2 years.

Early *tentative* signs of something special coming up in terms of length and depth of cold - but let's wait and see.

God dammit Puggit, I keep trying to not get excited and then you post things like that. You're not helping my eventual dissapointment!

[NRS]

tenohfive said:

spikeyhead said:

Has it occurred to you that the average fell runner who is up there at this time of year is doing the same route every other day? They'll all know the score, and even most of the potholes. Life is not about being wrapped in cotton wool.

The overwhelming majority know their limits, I accept that. And my post wasn't totally clear - it was directed more at the inexperienced hill walkers who through their ignorance aren't aware of the dangers involved. There are of course a number of fell runners who will push themselves past the point of safety, but on the whole I agree with you that most know exactly what they're doing.

goldblum said:

Quite.

Funnily enough I've just returned from skiing in Italy with a number of mates who are MR...and also competitive fell runners. It's numpties like toh5 who best leave the wild outdoors alone until spring has sprung - or when the met office's amber weather warnings might cease and allow him outside.

I'm sure your MR mates would love the, 'just give it a go, what can go wrong?' attitude you're suggesting.

Whether you like it or not there are a good chunk of people up on the hills, right now, who don't have the skills or experience to stop themselves getting into trouble. It's luck that's keeping most of that segment safe. I'm all for getting people up there - so long as they aren't going to become a burden on the emergency services such as SAR and MRT's through avoidable mistakes.

If you don't like me pushing a simple message that MRT's, the BMC, MCoS et al. all push every winter - to be aware of the risks and have the skills and equipment to mitigate against them - well, that's just tough.

There's a difference between cotton wool and being smart. Generally a lot of the fell runners are screwed if they trip and break a leg or similar (if they are on their own). Without many layers to keep warm when not moving then it becomes an issue fast. Also a lot of people don't really know avalanche risk and how to read the terrain/ snow layers. A lot of people get away with it, but it just takes one time of something going wrong and you're potentially in big trouble.

[hondafanatic]

Puggit said:

GFS now showing some snow across pretty much the entire country for Weds night in to Thursday. West is Best. Nothing heavy in the South - but some parts haven't seen snow for almost 2 years.

Early *tentative* signs of something special coming up in terms of length and depth of cold - but let's wait and see.

Edited by Puggit on Monday 26th January 11:05

What is GFS?

[OzzyR1]

Global Forecasting System which produces 4 reports a day.

[hondafanatic]

OzzyR1 said:

Global Forecasting System which produces 4 reports a day.

Thank you

ETA - I think I found the correct website but it makes my head hurt...on both the technical front and aesthetics. How does one access the reports? Or is it paid content?

Thanks again.

Edited by hondafanatic on Monday 26th January 11:33

[Puggit]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts-a...

or

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertchart...

or

Read the Netweather forums and let other people find the charts <cough>

[hondafanatic]

Puggit said:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts-a...

or

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertchart...

or

Read the Netweather forums and let other people find the charts <cough>

Many thanks