Will the online casino's ban me for this?

[SpeckledJim]

Inertiatic said:

But at this tiny number of spins the frequency of R to B is next to meaningless as the 50:50 ratio does not start to appear until a HUGE number of spins has taken place. The actual distribution of R & B throughout this is random.

That's not true though. The 50:50 pattern will emerge very quickly.

Over the course of 10 spins there is only one path to get 100% R (or B), and only 10 ways to get 90% R (or B), but there are many hundreds of ways to get 50:50 or 60:40 or 40:60.

Over 100 spins, you should be within a handful of spins of 50:50.

[TwigtheWonderkid]

Inertiatic said:

TwigtheWonderkid said:

Inertiatic said:

So, on the face of it ten spins giving RRRRRRRRRR seems to be less likely than ten spins giving RBRBRBRBRB.

Not to me it isn't. The chances of predicting 10 results on the trot are identical regardless of what pattern you choose. That seems obvious to me, unless I'm missing something.

You can't quote that in isolation!

I said it wasn't the case in the very next line:

Inertiatic said:

But at this tiny number of spins the frequency of R to B is next to meaningless as the 50:50 ratio does not start to appear until a HUGE number of spins has taken place. The actual distribution of R & B throughout this is random.

The number of spins does not change the odds. It just makes the overall pattern closer to the mathematical prediction.

[Jon1967x]

SpeckledJim said:

Inertiatic said:

But at this tiny number of spins the frequency of R to B is next to meaningless as the 50:50 ratio does not start to appear until a HUGE number of spins has taken place. The actual distribution of R & B throughout this is random.

That's not true though. The 50:50 pattern will emerge very quickly.

Over the course of 10 spins there is only one path to get 100% R (or B), and only 10 ways to get 90% R (or B), but there are many hundreds of ways to get 50:50 or 60:40 or 40:60.

Over 100 spins, you should be within a handful of spins of 50:50.

It will follow a Normal distribution and if I could remember my stats its a fairly easy calculation to work out the probability of any given distribution e.g. over a 100 spins what are the chances of there being exactly 50 R and B and any other combination.

EFA = Its a Binominal distribution which will tend to a Normal distribution as the number of spins reaches infinity (discounting the 0)

Edited by Jon1967x on Friday 6th March 13:44

[Inertiatic]

TwigtheWonderkid said:

Inertiatic said:

TwigtheWonderkid said:

Inertiatic said:

So, on the face of it ten spins giving RRRRRRRRRR seems to be less likely than ten spins giving RBRBRBRBRB.

Not to me it isn't. The chances of predicting 10 results on the trot are identical regardless of what pattern you choose. That seems obvious to me, unless I'm missing something.

You can't quote that in isolation!

I said it wasn't the case in the very next line:

Inertiatic said:

But at this tiny number of spins the frequency of R to B is next to meaningless as the 50:50 ratio does not start to appear until a HUGE number of spins has taken place. The actual distribution of R & B throughout this is random.

The number of spins does not change the odds. It just makes the overall pattern closer to the mathematical prediction.

Isn't that what I said? I'm confused I was wondering whether the previous discussion was because it *appears* that ten Reds in a row is unlikely with a 50:50 game...but its actually no different to any other distribution

I'm just an interested amateur

[anonymous-user]

Why would they ban you. You're their bread and butter...

[SpeckledJim]

Inertiatic said:

TwigtheWonderkid said:

Inertiatic said:

TwigtheWonderkid said:

Inertiatic said:

So, on the face of it ten spins giving RRRRRRRRRR seems to be less likely than ten spins giving RBRBRBRBRB.

Not to me it isn't. The chances of predicting 10 results on the trot are identical regardless of what pattern you choose. That seems obvious to me, unless I'm missing something.

You can't quote that in isolation!

I said it wasn't the case in the very next line:

Inertiatic said:

But at this tiny number of spins the frequency of R to B is next to meaningless as the 50:50 ratio does not start to appear until a HUGE number of spins has taken place. The actual distribution of R & B throughout this is random.

The number of spins does not change the odds. It just makes the overall pattern closer to the mathematical prediction.

Isn't that what I said? I'm confused I was wondering whether the previous discussion was because it *appears* that ten Reds in a row is unlikely with a 50:50 game...but its actually no different to any other distribution

I'm just an interested amateur

Every sequence is equally likely. but out of 10, a total of 10:0 is much less likely than a total of 5:5.

[TwigtheWonderkid]

SpeckledJim said:

Every sequence is equally likely. but out of 10, a total of 10:0 is much less likely than a total of 5:5.

Absolutely right. Problem comes when you write down a particular 5:5 sequence, then it's no more likely than 10 reds or 10 blacks.

[Jon1967x]

SpeckledJim said:

Every sequence is equally likely. but out of 10, a total of 10:0 is much less likely than a total of 5:5.

5:5 is 252 times more likely.

[Road2Ruin]

SpeckledJim said:

That's not true though. The 50:50 pattern will emerge very quickly.

Over the course of 10 spins there is only one path to get 100% R (or B), and only 10 ways to get 90% R (or B), but there are many hundreds of ways to get 50:50 or 60:40 or 40:60.

Over 100 spins, you should be within a handful of spins of 50:50.

Try flipping a coin 10 times. . See what you get. . Try it another 10 and see again. . Random. . Isn't it. ..you could just as easily have 100 red as 50 of each. .

[Jon1967x]

Road2Ruin said:

SpeckledJim said:

That's not true though. The 50:50 pattern will emerge very quickly.

Over the course of 10 spins there is only one path to get 100% R (or B), and only 10 ways to get 90% R (or B), but there are many hundreds of ways to get 50:50 or 60:40 or 40:60.

Over 100 spins, you should be within a handful of spins of 50:50.

Try flipping a coin 10 times. . See what you get. . Try it another 10 and see again. . Random. . Isn't it. ..you could just as easily have 100 red as 50 of each. .

You need to qualify that... Over 100 coin tosses your much more likely to have 50 of each than 100 red do long as the order doesn't matter.

[Road2Ruin]

Jon1967x said:

You need to qualify that... Over 100 coin tosses your much more likely to have 50 of each than 100 red do long as the order doesn't matter.

No your not. Each time you flip the coin you have an equal chance of getting heads or tails. . The fact your are doing it 100 times doors not alter the odds each time. . However, the probability of the following coin toss being the same as the one before is where the real maths come in. There is only a 1 in 2 chance of that meaning that at some time it won't be. But the chance of you getting 50 heads and 50 tails is just as unlikely as 100 of one or another. You may get 60-40 or even 49-51 or 80-20. The more times you flip the more accurate 50-50 looks but that is only because as a percentage of the total number it looks close. If you flipped 1 milion time you might get 50.01% but how much difference in coin tosses were there? Of course I am not Stephen Hawkin so may be talking out of arse..;)

[blinkythefish]

Road2Ruin said:

Jon1967x said:

You need to qualify that... Over 100 coin tosses your much more likely to have 50 of each than 100 red do long as the order doesn't matter.

No your not. Each time you flip the coin you have an equal chance of getting heads or tails. . The fact your are doing it 100 times doors not alter the odds each time. . However, the probability of the following coin toss being the same as the one before is where the real maths come in. There is only a 1 in 2 chance of that meaning that at some time it won't be. But the chance of you getting 50 heads and 50 tails is just as unlikely as 100 of one or another. You may get 60-40 or even 49-51 or 80-20. The more times you flip the more accurate 50-50 looks but that is only because as a percentage of the total number it looks close. If you flipped 1 milion time you might get 50.01% but how much difference in coin tosses were there? Of course I am not Stephen Hawkin so may be talking out of arse..;)

In 100 coin tosses, there are 2^100=1.3E30 outcomes. Only one of these is all heads. So it has a probability of 1:1.3E30.

There are 100!÷50!÷50! = 1E29 outcomes containing 50 head and 50 tails. So over 100 spins 50R50B has a probability of 1E29:1.3E30=0.079:1.

The 50H50T outcome is much more likely than 100H. However any specific combination of H and T has the same likelihood as all Headd - overall 50:50 has a higher probability because there are more combinations which give this outcome).

This has no bearing on any individual spin, which has a 50% chance of head or tail.

Edited by blinkythefish on Saturday 7th March 09:07

[its hot]

not read all these replies but if you take the free money top up they offer then trying to cash in the winnings is almost impossible due to the fine print terms you have to place a stake of a certain value around 90 odd times or some thing like that !!!!!

[dave123456]

wilwak said:

Rollin said:

Martingale system. You'll lose due to table limits. Yes you will.

Exactly right.

The house limits or your budget will get you.

You may win every time for a long time but on the one time it goes wrong it will cost you BIG and you'll lose everything you have previously won.

I tried the system. A good few years ago and learned the hard way.

You need very high table limits and lots of funds to try this system.

online you would surely just have several different roulette 'tables' open, and bolster your stakes that way...

[schmunk]

Ug_lee said:

No idea was around 2006 ish when I did this. I was quite sceptical when a friend showed me the theory. Had nothing to do all weekend so thought I'd give it a go, worse I could lose was £100.

Basically every spin you put £2 on red and black, also £2 on green. Do 10 spins, you get the money you gambled on red or black back every time. No green within them 10 spins meant you upped the amount on green to £4 and do another 10 spins, upping the amount on green every 10 spins by £2. When green did come in (and it did nearly all the time within 30 spins) I would get my money back plus a small increase in the fighting fund.

I'll see if I still have the tally sheet and where it went wrong, something/someone obviously clocked me and I went around 80+ spins without green coming up. By that time I was losing £20+ a spin, it was pretty horrible feeling knowing the winnings were bleeding away.

That's when I bailed and the emails started. Never done online casinos since.

This is just a variation on the above-mentioned Martingale system.

[T0nup]

Yeah, have dabbled on the table... Online and at a live casino, and I guess made the mistake of thinking that anyone other than the house could win.

I play black and red, but usually combine it with bets on strings in odds and evens and hi's and lows... When I'm feeling really adventurous, I'll play lines and columns. Infinate bank roll and high table limits a must.

I have learned this much. Be it on online casino, or a live table, the chances of them wanting to expell you from the table are non existant. You may think you have a system, and it may work for you... For a while. The house loves nothing more than someone who keeps plugging away with little wins, it's reinforces the notion that you are playing the house, and not the other way round. Becuause when you lose, and bet bigger to try and recoupe the loss, and lose again, and again, well you get the picture.

If you walk away having lost a little, you are still a winner. Walk away having won some, consider yourself very lucky. If you have bet big, probably because that long string of reds or odds or what ever just sat there screaming to be bet against, and you won... For crying out loud walk away!

[Jon1967x]

blinkythefish said:

Road2Ruin said:

Jon1967x said:

You need to qualify that... Over 100 coin tosses your much more likely to have 50 of each than 100 red do long as the order doesn't matter.

No your not. Each time you flip the coin you have an equal chance of getting heads or tails. . The fact your are doing it 100 times doors not alter the odds each time. . However, the probability of the following coin toss being the same as the one before is where the real maths come in. There is only a 1 in 2 chance of that meaning that at some time it won't be. But the chance of you getting 50 heads and 50 tails is just as unlikely as 100 of one or another. You may get 60-40 or even 49-51 or 80-20. The more times you flip the more accurate 50-50 looks but that is only because as a percentage of the total number it looks close. If you flipped 1 milion time you might get 50.01% but how much difference in coin tosses were there? Of course I am not Stephen Hawkin so may be talking out of arse..;)

In 100 coin tosses, there are 2^100=1.3E30 outcomes. Only one of these is all heads. So it has a probability of 1:1.3E30.

There are 100!÷50!÷50! = 1E29 outcomes containing 50 head and 50 tails. So over 100 spins 50R50B has a probability of 1E29:1.3E30=0.079:1.

The 50H50T outcome is much more likely than 100H. However any specific combination of H and T has the same likelihood as all Headd - overall 50:50 has a higher probability because there are more combinations which give this outcome).

This has no bearing on any individual spin, which has a 50% chance of head or tail.

At least someone understands maths.

[dave123456]

Jon1967x said:

blinkythefish said:

Road2Ruin said:

Jon1967x said:

You need to qualify that... Over 100 coin tosses your much more likely to have 50 of each than 100 red do long as the order doesn't matter.

No your not. Each time you flip the coin you have an equal chance of getting heads or tails. . The fact your are doing it 100 times doors not alter the odds each time. . However, the probability of the following coin toss being the same as the one before is where the real maths come in. There is only a 1 in 2 chance of that meaning that at some time it won't be. But the chance of you getting 50 heads and 50 tails is just as unlikely as 100 of one or another. You may get 60-40 or even 49-51 or 80-20. The more times you flip the more accurate 50-50 looks but that is only because as a percentage of the total number it looks close. If you flipped 1 milion time you might get 50.01% but how much difference in coin tosses were there? Of course I am not Stephen Hawkin so may be talking out of arse..;)

In 100 coin tosses, there are 2^100=1.3E30 outcomes. Only one of these is all heads. So it has a probability of 1:1.3E30.

There are 100!÷50!÷50! = 1E29 outcomes containing 50 head and 50 tails. So over 100 spins 50R50B has a probability of 1E29:1.3E30=0.079:1.

The 50H50T outcome is much more likely than 100H. However any specific combination of H and T has the same likelihood as all Headd - overall 50:50 has a higher probability because there are more combinations which give this outcome).

This has no bearing on any individual spin, which has a 50% chance of head or tail.

At least someone understands maths.

it's less about the number of outcomes and more about the sequence of outcomes, I think that is where people are getting confused.

[Jon1967x]

dave123456 said:

Jon1967x said:

blinkythefish said:

Road2Ruin said:

Jon1967x said:

You need to qualify that... Over 100 coin tosses your much more likely to have 50 of each than 100 red do long as the order doesn't matter.

No your not. Each time you flip the coin you have an equal chance of getting heads or tails. . The fact your are doing it 100 times doors not alter the odds each time. . However, the probability of the following coin toss being the same as the one before is where the real maths come in. There is only a 1 in 2 chance of that meaning that at some time it won't be. But the chance of you getting 50 heads and 50 tails is just as unlikely as 100 of one or another. You may get 60-40 or even 49-51 or 80-20. The more times you flip the more accurate 50-50 looks but that is only because as a percentage of the total number it looks close. If you flipped 1 milion time you might get 50.01% but how much difference in coin tosses were there? Of course I am not Stephen Hawkin so may be talking out of arse..;)

In 100 coin tosses, there are 2^100=1.3E30 outcomes. Only one of these is all heads. So it has a probability of 1:1.3E30.

There are 100!÷50!÷50! = 1E29 outcomes containing 50 head and 50 tails. So over 100 spins 50R50B has a probability of 1E29:1.3E30=0.079:1.

The 50H50T outcome is much more likely than 100H. However any specific combination of H and T has the same likelihood as all Headd - overall 50:50 has a higher probability because there are more combinations which give this outcome).

This has no bearing on any individual spin, which has a 50% chance of head or tail.

At least someone understands maths.

it's less about the number of outcomes and more about the sequence of outcomes, I think that is where people are getting confused.

Agreed - the key bit was "..so long as the order doesn't matter". If the order mattered, they'd all be the same

[sidicks]

Road2Ruin said:

No your not. Each time you flip the coin you have an equal chance of getting heads or tails. . The fact your are doing it 100 times doors not alter the odds each time. . However, the probability of the following coin toss being the same as the one before is where the real maths come in. There is only a 1 in 2 chance of that meaning that at some time it won't be. But the chance of you getting 50 heads and 50 tails is just as unlikely as 100 of one or another.

Edited by sidicks on Saturday 7th March 17:27